The Official 2018 Chinese Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**

[Dr Z]

Date(s): Friday 13 April - Sunday 15 April 2018

UK Broadcast Timings (and local time)

All sessions are live on Sky F1 with highlights on Channel 4.

Session	Day	Sky F1	Channel 4	Session Start	Local Time
Practice 1	Fri	0245	-	0300	1000
Practice 2	Fri	0645	-	0700	1400
Practice 3	Sat	0345	-	0400	1100
Qualifying	Sat	0600	1300	0700	1400
Race	Sun	0530	1400	0710	1410

Shanghai International Circuit



Live timing for all sessions available here:

http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/f1-...

Info such as lap times, PU use, technical reports, stewards decisions etc for the weekend will appear here:

https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-one-world-c...

Weather forecast:

http://www.myweather2.com/Motor-Racing/China/Shang...

The tyre choices:



What Pirelli say about this track and race:

• Turns 1 and 13 are the most demanding corners for tyres. Turn 1 is a decreasing radius corner leading straight into Turn 2, while the long Turn 13 is taken at high speed.
• There’s a very long straight that can have the effect of cooling the tyres, meaning that drivers need to pay attention to the braking area: this is also a key opportunity for overtaking.
• The circuit isn’t used much during the year, which can make it quite ‘green’ and slippery.
• The 2017 strategy was influenced by rain and safety cars. Lewis Hamilton won with a two-stopper, starting on the intermediate and then completing two stints on the soft.
• It’s quite a fast and flowing circuit, with lateral forces (cornering) more predominant than longitudinal forces (acceleration and braking).
• In cold weather, some graining has been observed in the past: especially in free practice.
• The surface is quite smooth, making it easier to find a consistent set up: the main challenge is to identify the best compromise between downforce and drag to find the right wing level.

2017 Qualifying





2017 Race







Fastest Race Lap: 1:35.378 (L44, L. Hamilton; Mercedes)

---

Pirelli have skipped a compound and are bringing the ultrasoft as the qualifying tyre, should mean this race could throw up a similar tyre strategy variation as the last race.

Whilst this track has a very long back straight (one of the longest in F1), the total % of full throttle per lap is lesser than Bahrain, fuel consumption is also lower. Downforce level is said to be medium, as despite having quite a few high/mid speed corners, the end of straight speed is still very important for defending from attacks.

The cars spend the vast majority of the long straight doing well over 250 km/h, so good aero efficiency is important for a good race car especially for those in the midfield. It’s a front-limited track in contrast to Bahrain as well, so the midfield order could well throw up another surprise. Who will get it right and who will struggle?

Looking at the tyre choices, the teams are definitely anticipating a 2-stop race.

Homework for Max:

How to not DNF in lap1How to go from P16 to P7 in lap 1 - 2017 Chinese GP Onboard

Edited by Dr Z on Tuesday 10th April 13:06

[Dr Z]

Gad-Westy said:

Vaud said:

Gad-Westy said:

Looking forward to this. What's the story with the number of pit stops shown for last year's race?

Wet start.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but it says Lewis Started on Inters and then made 4 pit stops each time for softs or super softs. But the reports says he stopped twice.

Something wrong with that FOM graphic...this is correct:



Dotted line mean that stint was done on used tyres.

[Dr Z]

Gad-Westy said:

That's better. Glad my sanity is just about still in check, possibly.

Seem to remember some good races here. I'm not a big fan of the track but I like turn 1 and there seems to be decent overtaking opportunities in a couple of places.

Yeah, the track does see some good racing although some of the passes felt a bit inevitable in the narrow pre-2017 cars, I think last year the effect of DRS+slip streaming was spot on, so the passes were good...hope the same for this year. I only paid attention last year, but the turns 1 through to 4 was very interesting to observe, how different drivers approached it over a qualifying lap.

FurballS2000 said:

Hang on medium, soft and ultra soft?? No supers?

Haven't noticed a selection like that before, they are usually three sequential compounds aren't they?

It's a new thing Pirelli are doing this year to have more of a spread in tyre performance to encourage strategy variation between drivers/teams.

Bridgestone used to do it too, bringing two tyre compounds to a race that are two steps apart.

suffolk009 said:

Thanks Dr Z for an excellent opening post, as always.

I expect it'll be an interesting race.

My only real wish is that McLaren and Alonso maintain their championship positions. (Its a big ask!)

...I wish the same as you.

[Dr Z]

^No probs, I will continue to post as long as I can muster the enthusiasm/time...

So who's betting against a Merc pole/win this race?

They've been very quick at this track in the past...won here in 2012 & 2014-2017.

[Dr Z]

Yep, the Ferrari looks very quick in the straights and isn't too shabby in the downforce sector either.

FP1:



FP2:

[Dr Z]

TheVole said:

The Moose said:

Out of interest, where do you get these graphics?

F1 put them on their Twitter account after each session, although I'm sure there are other sources too.

Yep, I got it from the F1 twitter account.

Looking at the long runs, it is a shame that Kimi didn't have a chance to do a run on the ultra softs, and Vettel didn't have a clear long run in it either...the Ferrari is looking like it is the quickest car at the moment on ultra softs. If they'd have done the runs, I'd be a bit more sure of it.

Most teams were running around 15 laps on the ultra softs, so it's looking very much like a 2-stop race. The medium was working as well the softs here I think, so teams may well choose to do a longer middle stint on it or simply close out the race with it on a 1-stop. Nice to have that uncertainty.

I'm not going to make any grand pronouncement about McLaren's race pace until I see qualifying, but I'm loving the way Alonso is working that ultra soft...he's looking dialled in. Apparently Renault have released more power this weekend.

[Dr Z]

The Moose said:

Interesting - and what about the other graphics at the beginning of your thread - the tire selections etc?

From Pirelli's twitter account (@pirellisport) and the FIA website.

[Dr Z]

HustleRussell said:

HustleRussell said:

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

Just how wrong can I be? Surely it’s not a Soft / Medium / Soft two stop though? If you start on the softs you’re targeting a one stop? I think that’d be tough..,

I believe it's mandatory to use only one of the harder compounds so, a 2-stopper doing 2 stints on the softs then a final sprint on ultra soft if needed would work too.

[Dr Z]

Oh damn you Vettel! Spoil sport!

Mercedes half a second off! Hamilton out qualified! What is happening? !

[Dr Z]

Merc haven't improved at all from last year, while Ferrari & RB have at this track. Best lap by Merc (Bottas) was the same as the pole lap by Hamilton last year. Maybe Merc got it wrong on setup for the ultra soft tyres, maybe they are planning to run solely on the harder compounds tomorrow. They should be wary of the Red Bulls jumping them and holding them back from the Ferraris tomorrow...or indeed beating them to the flag.

I reckon we will see quite a few teams outside of the top 10 splitting strategies.

I'm excited for the race and I hope we get a clean race for all three teams at the sharp end.

Pole lap:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=njTUxSjd-ho

Vettel is using exactly the same line through turns 1-4 as last year but this car just has superior traction than last (used to be a big Merc advantage, not anymore). Oh and the way it just pulls like a train on the back straight is super impressive. The funny derate at the end of the long straight from last year is gone too, pulling strongly all the way to the braking zone. Hats off to the power train team at Ferrari.

[Dr Z]

jsf said:

DanielSan said:

Mclaren way back from the other 2 Renault teams, one of which sent out a car that’s best described as a rush job and only just managing to out quality the Toro Rosso’s. Imagine if the Mclaren chassis was st, they’d be behind Sauber. Thankfully it’s the best on the grid...

I'm certainly surprised by how poorly the McLarens are doing, especially in qualifying, it's looking like they have screwed up the aero and have a very draggy car.

That's funny, last year I questioned the veracity of some of McLaren's claims about their car in here and was promptly shot down.

IMO some of the same weaknesses of last year's car has carried over to this car. Thankfully the Renault motor is allowing them to fight in the races this year and there's definite improvements there.

I'm expecting Spain to be a turning point.

[Dr Z]

Danny Ric! You beauty!

Messy race. Unlucky Vettel.

[Dr Z]

Now the Ferrari is quicker in quali, it doesn't seem to work behind another car. Funny.

Had my doubts erased about how quick that RB was as Ric was holding on to Ham very well on 20 lap old ultra softs. That race win was such a display of pure pace and aggression ...it warms the cockles this Sunday morning.

Now I have a smile on my face.

[Dr Z]

CoolHands said:

What’s everyone’s view with alonso on seb move? Too harsh?

Thought he was too harsh on Seb.

Fernando does race fairly on most occasions but unfortunately McLaren lacks the straight line speed to fight fairly with the Ferrari. So I think he was forced to really cut Seb off to prevent a fight back. Doesn't excuse it but as Kimi would say it's part of the game.

[Dr Z]

Gaz. said:

Many were predicting podiums:

Dr Z said:

Gaz. said:

Dr Z said:

Gaz. said:

Alonso might be a magician, but he isn't a wizard. What set of circumstances would mean we would lose at least 6 of the 8 faster cars from the front of the race?

That said he's certainly got motivation when he lines up behind two teams that wouldn't have him because of the aggro, a team he publicly fked off for coming 2nd three times and a team he turned down on multiple occasions.

What do Mclaren bring to the table that they could knock RBR off the podium in the first half dozen races? In ten seasons they have not out developed RBR over a season? On occasion they've started ahead, such as 2010 & 2012 but were caught and passed during the season.

All fair points but let's revisit this at the end of this season. I would suggest past performance is not a good future guide in this case. Apart from the top 3, McLaren and the works Renault had a fantastic development rate last year. Let's see what they can do this year.

Oh, forgot to add...2010 McLaren most definitely didn't start 'ahead' --as in have a better car. Ahead on points, but RB had the better car from the start.

Podiums at the start of the season

Melbourne, Sakir, Shanghai and Sochi are in my mind the start of the season. If winter testing could be deemed the intro, then the first four fly aways are Chapter One imo. I think they've got their work cut out to get out of Q2 with both cars and go to Barcelona with 56 points on the board.

As you say, Renault had fantastic development last year, and Mclaren are already behind them.

Usually anything can happen at Melbourne. Apart from that, Sakhir and Shanghai are potential candidates for a McLaren podium.

There, I said it.

They haven't got into Q3 with either car in three attempts yet, and the closest they've been to a podium is 20 seconds and that was because of safety cars at half distance in each race. They haven't refuted the naysayers at all but it could have been much worse had Force India not faltered.

Alonso is joint 6th with Hulk, and considering the budget they damn well should be beating FI, Torro Rosso, Williams and Haas.

At the rate Renault have been catching them they will fall behind after Baku.

Ha, I walked into that one.

It's funny how many were more than happy to come in and st on McLaren after one race in Bahrain. Maybe they deserve it after the hype (mostly coming from Alonso), but it's ridiculous how they don't get a break at all, and can do no right...apart from being a McLaren fan, that was a bit much of a bait for the contrarian in me.

Was sorely tempted to give some grief to Honda fans/anti-McLaren crowd in return seeing how the TR cars were running around at the back today. I'll save it for the end of the season.

[Dr Z]

Turbojuice said:

Gad-Westy said:

SmoothCriminal said:

I still can't work out what reason Merc had for leaving Lewis out there.

No way on any prediction could I see any advantage of staying out on old tyres.

They must have seen red bull come out and even if ric stayed out he would have lost one position on track.

Why on earth would you not take a free pit Stop.

Was wondering the same thing. Although I guess he may have lost a place to Kimi as well? Can't remember exactly how it was stacked up at the time. Either way, it just seemed like Red Bull were alert and ready to react. Didn't get the impression Merc even considered it.

Merc didn't pit Hamilton because they didn't have enough fresh tyres to make an extra stop worthwhile. As a result, they deemed it a better option to keep him out and hold track position.

I don't believe it was a bad call at the time.



He had done only 12 laps on the medium tyre which was reckoned to be able to do thrice that number of laps, and going by friday long runs, there wasn't much in it between the two tyre compounds in terms of lap time. It was just too early to pit. Hamilton had another used set of Softs, which they could have used if the Merc pitwall had thought that the tyre performance will differ by that much at that time. What RB did was simply a gamble, IMO.

I was watching the race live on Sky and di Resta picked up on an aspect that could help RB, he mentioned that sometimes when the tyres cool during an SC period, it will be difficult to fire it back up once you get going. These were the tyre working ranges:



Note how the top end of the working range of the ultra soft is still at the low end of the soft and medium tyres. My hypothesis goes thus: in order to not overheat the ultra softs, the setup would have compromised a little bit and so would have relied on the driver to keep the medium tyre (which only switches on right at the top end of the ultra soft), switched on and working, through a race stint. This is more critical for the medium tyre, while the soft has more of a margin on it (as the working range has some overlap with the ultra soft).

Once the safety car came out, the medium tyres would have cooled but it is likely that as the medium running cars went through the twisty sector 2, the aero loads generated there would have fired it back up, however the long back straight in this track is known to cool the tyres, so I imagine some of the medium tyre'd cars were trapped in a vicious cycle of not-quite-hot/sliding over a lap. This can cause thermal degradation with the tyre compound never delivering the grip level it is supposed to when it's fired up properly from new and kept on the boil. Also, more tread on the tyre = better able to retain heat and thus switch on. Hence, Kimi able to switch it on and keep it working better than some others after SC as he had pitted much later than others.

That's my take on it, anyhow. I don't believe the teams were in this situation before with these new tyres.

Edited by Dr Z on Sunday 15th April 22:10

[Dr Z]

rev-erend said:

Kimi - stella all weekend, got to taste the Champagne but on did not win.

Whilst Ferrari strat team had an off weekend, Kimi's strat was a bit too questionable for me. Generally Ferrari strat decisions have an air of plausible deniability about them but this one had me scratching my head.

Merc reacted to both RB cars' pace by pitting Hamilton first (who Kimi was racing at the time), then Bottas came in immediately after.

I sense Ferrari were a bit lethargic in reacting to Bottas with Vettel, but why didn't they react to Hamilton who posed a more immediate danger to Kimi? By the time they pit Vettel, Ricciardo was also well within Kimi's pit window, so he would have come out last among the top three teams if they had pitted him then.

So, they decide to extend his 1st stint to build a tyre offset and thus an advantage of around 10 laps. By this time I think all three teams were leaning heavily towards a 1-stop. Buying a tyre advantage like this is correct provided the pitwall believes that this tyre advantage is enough to make up the time loss and make up the positions lost to the undercut. But this is another clear error as Kimi lost around 9 seconds to Bottas/Vettel in that time (and similar to Ham/Ric), which is damn near impossible to make up as the pace was very similar. In no way were they creating the delta needed to catch and pass on the same compound of tyres as all the other drivers...and trying to do it on a 1-stop.

Either go all in on the gamble or stay conservative, they did neither with Kimi and took the piss with his race like he's some cheap No. 2, not the guy who is still their last WDC.

I suspect switching him to a definite 2-stop immediately after they'd realised he's been undercut by all and sundry, would have put him in a position to win the race. But they had the cheek to use him to try and slow Bottas... unbelievable Ferrari. No wonder Kimi just becomes anonymous in the races sometimes. Sort it out!

[Dr Z]

ajprice said:

Mercedes and Ferrari expect to win, rolling the dice on a pit stop could lose them positions, so they play safe. Red Bull, if the red and silver cars finish, would expect 5th or lower, rolling the dice could get them slightly less points or a win/podium.

Oh I don't know about that, when we come on to some proper downforce tracks, the whole field is going to get their arses handed to them by that RB car...even with the power deficit as it stands now. I reckon both RB drivers have a genuine shot at this Championship. If Max continues to drive like this, it's going to make Ricciardo's job so much easier.

[Dr Z]

It will only affect them one race...if they take a fresh engine at somewhere like Monza as last year, they'll end up losing around 15-17 points to the race winner finishing P5/6. I believe the car is good enough to maximise points at tracks they'll be fastest to be able to build a buffer of 15-20 points. Additionally, if Ricciardo can steal wins like here on other tracks, it's on!

[Dr Z]

https://youtu.be/d2_s0iwj_Ns

Team radio 2018 Chinese GP


Max is a cocky bugger.