RE: Tesla Full Self Driving: Time For Tea
Discussion
loudlashadjuster said:
Such a surprise to see the wealth of informed opinion about the viability of self-driving tech in this thread, it would appear that many respondents would be able to call on the pioneering work of Messrs. Dunning and Kruger to validate their interpretation of where the strengths and weaknesses of Tesla's systems lie.
I'm not saying you are entirely wrong, indeed I don't know any of the commentators in person. But do keep in mind that what's being tried isn't magic, we're not low IQ oppressed masses, and that in the age of You Tube and the WWW, intelligent and inquisitive people can find out a reasonable amount about this and similar topics. Likewise there are University (and other online courses) that will teach you about AI, Classification and Computer vision. It's reasonably well known topic.Could any one of these people rock up at Tesla and rewrite it all for them in a few days? I doubt it. But in the same way that understanding how a wing generates lift means you can begin to comprehend how planes work, what they need to work and the problems they may have etc, so too does having some idea of computer vision.
Yes, we're all armchair commentators, and it's likely the D/K effect is in play to some extent, but don't write off what's said as though everyone is a moron.
phil4 said:
I'm not saying you are entirely wrong, indeed I don't know any of the commentators in person. But do keep in mind that what's being tried isn't magic, we're not low IQ oppressed masses, and that in the age of You Tube and the WWW, intelligent and inquisitive people can find out a reasonable amount about this and similar topics. Likewise there are University (and other online courses) that will teach you about AI, Classification and Computer vision. It's reasonably well known topic.
Could any one of these people rock up at Tesla and rewrite it all for them in a few days? I doubt it. But in the same way that understanding how a wing generates lift means you can begin to comprehend how planes work, what they need to work and the problems they may have etc, so too does having some idea of computer vision.
Yes, we're all armchair commentators, and it's likely the D/K effect is in play to some extent, but don't write off what's said as though everyone is a moron.
Many knowledgeable people on PH as you say, they make it worth hanging around Could any one of these people rock up at Tesla and rewrite it all for them in a few days? I doubt it. But in the same way that understanding how a wing generates lift means you can begin to comprehend how planes work, what they need to work and the problems they may have etc, so too does having some idea of computer vision.
Yes, we're all armchair commentators, and it's likely the D/K effect is in play to some extent, but don't write off what's said as though everyone is a moron.
On any such thread though there are always the "bUt wHaT AbOuT If iT RaInS"-type comments, as if that's some sort of mega-gotcha that hundreds of highly qualified engineers will have never considered. There's plenty of stuff in the public domain that explains where we are with this kind of stuff, its limitations and where the potential pitfalls are to more widespread adoption. Braying about the EU taking away steering wheels or swarms of AI-piloted vehicles ploughing through primary schools suggest some haven't availed themselves of it though.
Me? I look on this stuff as a kind of super cruise control, and probably will be for a good many years to come. Accepting their limitations I've been happy trusting the kinds of systems on current mainstream cars (which are a few steps behind the Tesla video) over many thousands of miles, but there's a big jump from level 2 to level 3 automation and we as sentient meatbags, nor the industry, are quite ready to make the jump.
loudlashadjuster said:
phil4 said:
I'm not saying you are entirely wrong, indeed I don't know any of the commentators in person. But do keep in mind that what's being tried isn't magic, we're not low IQ oppressed masses, and that in the age of You Tube and the WWW, intelligent and inquisitive people can find out a reasonable amount about this and similar topics. Likewise there are University (and other online courses) that will teach you about AI, Classification and Computer vision. It's reasonably well known topic.
Could any one of these people rock up at Tesla and rewrite it all for them in a few days? I doubt it. But in the same way that understanding how a wing generates lift means you can begin to comprehend how planes work, what they need to work and the problems they may have etc, so too does having some idea of computer vision.
Yes, we're all armchair commentators, and it's likely the D/K effect is in play to some extent, but don't write off what's said as though everyone is a moron.
Many knowledgeable people on PH as you say, they make it worth hanging around Could any one of these people rock up at Tesla and rewrite it all for them in a few days? I doubt it. But in the same way that understanding how a wing generates lift means you can begin to comprehend how planes work, what they need to work and the problems they may have etc, so too does having some idea of computer vision.
Yes, we're all armchair commentators, and it's likely the D/K effect is in play to some extent, but don't write off what's said as though everyone is a moron.
On any such thread though there are always the "bUt wHaT AbOuT If iT RaInS"-type comments, as if that's some sort of mega-gotcha that hundreds of highly qualified engineers will have never considered. There's plenty of stuff in the public domain that explains where we are with this kind of stuff, its limitations and where the potential pitfalls are to more widespread adoption. Braying about the EU taking away steering wheels or swarms of AI-piloted vehicles ploughing through primary schools suggest some haven't availed themselves of it though.
Me? I look on this stuff as a kind of super cruise control, and probably will be for a good many years to come. Accepting their limitations I've been happy trusting the kinds of systems on current mainstream cars (which are a few steps behind the Tesla video) over many thousands of miles, but there's a big jump from level 2 to level 3 automation and we as sentient meatbags, nor the industry, are quite ready to make the jump.
As for exactly where Tesla (or any other manufacturer) is regarding level 1 to 5, who really cares? Yes, it may be a pedants paradise, but for most, it will simply be an extension to their cruise control, with incremental steps, until before they know it, it will be within their grasp.
Why fight something that has the potential to save lives? Is it out of some misplaced belief in one's ability to be a driving god? On PH? Heaven forbid...
Software tends to have bugs, complex software even more so.
It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
T-195 said:
Musk is clearly more interested in causing mass unemployment than saving the Planet.
Musk isn't causing anything, the industry will cause unemployment or more accurately a shift in employment.Lets say you own a taxi firm.
You can have 100 cars on the road working 24/7, the driver never requires sleep or food or paid holidays or a pension. The driver doesn't get grumpy with the passengers or traffic.
Now lets say something complicated happens and the car crashes. Well you'd already have insurance for the human drivers so this is no different. Maybe the software has a glitch, humans have sudden medical conditions.
Now go buy a trucking firm, the rest is simple economics.
If Musk doesn't provide it then someone else will. Automation has always happened in every industry and will continue to do so.
if you are going to sit in a car while doing SFA and having it drive itself, why do you even want a car - get a bus or some other means of transport.
Its pretty cool but having it consistently do fully autonomous driving with no accidents is years away (thankfully) so real petrolheads have at least some more time to enjoy driving proper cars before they resort to robotic means of transport with as much driver engagement as a wheelbarrow
Its pretty cool but having it consistently do fully autonomous driving with no accidents is years away (thankfully) so real petrolheads have at least some more time to enjoy driving proper cars before they resort to robotic means of transport with as much driver engagement as a wheelbarrow
3.1416 said:
Software tends to have bugs, complex software even more so.
It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
The issue is not whether it crashes, just whether it crashes less than the average driver.It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
loafer123 said:
3.1416 said:
Software tends to have bugs, complex software even more so.
It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
The issue is not whether it crashes, just whether it crashes less than the average driver.It is, to all intents and purposes, impossible to eradicate all bugs since it is well nigh impossible to replicate all input parameters and combinations there of to ensure correct operation under all circumstances. This is a known limitation of software engineering.
Good luck though!
Presumably the manufacturers will accept full liability when smartycar uncovers its bugs.
Testing flawed systems on the untrained public and over stating it's abilities or being vague on its limitations on the other hand I disagree with. That's my problem with Tesla. I've spent years and years deep in research on this subject so I'm not without background or sector knowledge.
GM supercruise is a MUCH more sensible solution allowing self driving but focusing on safety rather than headlines.
Shiv_P said:
Most aspects during flight are still manually controlled, including takeoff and landing
If you go on holiday in a Spitfire maybe!Modern passenger aircraft are massively reliant on power electronics and even when the pilot is doing the flying they are essentially telling the computer what they want the plane to do and it produces the desired effect.
Horrible earnings report, even worse than the poor expectations...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-earnings-q1-...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-earnings-q1-...
fblm said:
Horrible earnings report, even worse than the poor expectations...
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-earnings-q1-...
I cant remember anyone posting BMW or Fords earning reports in any thread discussing their cars or tech..?? https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/24/tesla-earnings-q1-...
loafer123 said:
The issue is not whether it crashes, just whether it crashes less than the average driver.
Logically you're right and I agree but... in the UK there are roughly 1000 killed and 20,000 seriously injured on the roads. Take major manufacturers like Ford, VW, BMW all with roughly 10% of the market. Even if their AI's were half as accident prone as us, they are looking at about a 50 deaths and a 1000 serious injuries each! They are going to be up to their eyeballs in law suits for the rest of time.The march of 9's, self driving will be 99.99999% perfect...
It will crash, no doubt, but far less frequently than typical human drivers, and the important thing is its consistent, if it crashes it will get updated and fixed, humans make the same mistakes time after time.
It wont get tired, it will be able to see 360 degrees around the car, it has built in redundancies.
Hell Teslas system is already saving lives and its not fully active yet - many examples online of it intervening in dangerous situations an avoiding accidents
It will crash, no doubt, but far less frequently than typical human drivers, and the important thing is its consistent, if it crashes it will get updated and fixed, humans make the same mistakes time after time.
It wont get tired, it will be able to see 360 degrees around the car, it has built in redundancies.
Hell Teslas system is already saving lives and its not fully active yet - many examples online of it intervening in dangerous situations an avoiding accidents
I have watched owner videos of their Tesla's coping (or not) with non-straight roads and the thing they all have in common is the car will put wheels off the edge of the road at some point. I didn't see that here, but the road position between 1:20 and 1:30 was odd and possibly encroaching on the next lane. The sped up video makes a lot of the shortcomings harder to see even when slowed down due to lost frames.
Self driving cars are on the way, but I would be surprised if this one could cope with driving round an old British town centres in busy traffic.
Self driving cars are on the way, but I would be surprised if this one could cope with driving round an old British town centres in busy traffic.
RobDickinson said:
I cant remember anyone posting BMW or Fords earning reports in any thread discussing their cars or tech..??
Firstly, so what? I'll comment on what I choose.Secondly, if BMW and Ford had form for making huge, questionable claims prior to bad results maybe that would also get a mention.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/te...
Thirdly, this self driving video release was part of Monday's ''autonomy day'', which made quite a few 'surprising' announcements. ''Elon Musk asserted that the company will have 1 million vehicles on the road capable of driving without human assistance by mid-next year.''...''Many investors were skittish after the event, which included sweeping claims from management about designing “the best chip in the world” in order to support Tesla’s self-driving ambitions. Nvidia (NVDA) was a previous chip supplier to Tesla, and refuted some of Tesla’s assertions about the superiority of its new hardware in multiple reports.'' https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-q1-2019-earni...
Finally, ''Elon'', IMO, is a genius whose achievements are epic and speak for themselves. He really doesn't need you running round every thread on PH defending him. If his cars are as good as you say perhaps you'd be more help if you just buy one.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 25th April 00:28
foxbody-87 said:
Shiv_P said:
Most aspects during flight are still manually controlled, including takeoff and landing
If you go on holiday in a Spitfire maybe!Modern passenger aircraft are massively reliant on power electronics and even when the pilot is doing the flying they are essentially telling the computer what they want the plane to do and it produces the desired effect.
Pilots have to go through huge amounts of training, are expected to take control at any time, in any condition. They must constantly monitor the on-board systems, follow instructions from air traffic control and the aircraft themselves are rigorously and methodically maintained with multiple backups should a fault occur.
And this is in the sky where there are no pedestrians to run out in front of you, no ambiguous lane markings, no potholes, no dodgy parking, no narrow country lanes and hugely less traffic.
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