Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[Thankyou4calling]

It won’t be genuine

[Butter Face]

CV19 or no CV19, always plenty if people out there willing to take yer cash away.

[Deep Thought]

MDMA . said:

Will check. Sent it this morning on a WhatsApp msg.

2015, 60k. Big spec. 8k

Curious what the big spec was? It doesnt seem to have leather, those wheels are the standard wheels, and it doesnt have metallic paint?

[andyxxx]

growlerowl said:

andyxxx said:

I agree – except I say - it will take years.

If I were to market any of my cars now I would be happy to get 30% less than a month ago. That may improve slightly for a short time when we do open back up due to the lack of new cars coming through.

Property prices I guess at least 30 to 40% lower and will not recover for years – there will simply be far too many houses coming on the market with far less people in a position to purchase.

Suits me. I'm looking to move up and calculated that if prices fall equally for the size of place I'm after as they do for my current house, every percentage point drop will save me £3k on the new mortgage.

Yes in times of hardship and crisis there will always be some that benefit. I suspect most will be substantially worse off.

[av185]

If that red R actually exists odd on its damage repaired Cat #.

[Dolf Stoppard]

Deep Thought said:

MDMA . said:

Will check. Sent it this morning on a WhatsApp msg.

2015, 60k. Big spec. 8k

Curious what the big spec was? It doesnt seem to have leather, those wheels are the standard wheels, and it doesnt have metallic paint?

Probably one of those cars where the seller lists it as having a massive spec, and then goes on to list what is standard equipment. So a standard spec car! That's also clearly a scam.

[GT72]

andyxxx said:

growlerowl said:

andyxxx said:

I agree – except I say - it will take years.

If I were to market any of my cars now I would be happy to get 30% less than a month ago. That may improve slightly for a short time when we do open back up due to the lack of new cars coming through.

Property prices I guess at least 30 to 40% lower and will not recover for years – there will simply be far too many houses coming on the market with far less people in a position to purchase.

Suits me. I'm looking to move up and calculated that if prices fall equally for the size of place I'm after as they do for my current house, every percentage point drop will save me £3k on the new mortgage.

Yes in times of hardship and crisis there will always be some that benefit. I suspect most will be substantially worse off.

In a recession the housing market stalls, the only sales will be repossessions, and they'll generally be purchased by opportunistic cash buyers. The government will do everything in their power to ensure the banks don't repossess houses in the coming years, as that will just push us further into recession.

The issue you will have Growlerowl is that you won't be able to sell your own house.

[av185]

Depends on the house and where it is.

Houses are similar to cars in that the best will always sell at the best prices recession or not.

[GT72]

av185 said:

Depends on the house and where it is.

Houses are similar to cars in that the best will always sell at the best prices recession or not.

There may be some that sell - but "in general" the market will stall - it's the very nature of a recession. Very few houses will come to the market as the majority won't want to realise a loss. Lots of EA's will go out of business.

[av185]

GT72 said:

Lots of EA's will go out of business.

Only the spiv Jonny come Latelys.

Any estate agent can make money in the good times but few will in the bad.

We recently sold multi branch surveyors and ea practices which had survived all latter day downturns and recessions.

[hungry_hog]

av185 said:

Depends on the house and where it is.

Houses are similar to cars in that the best will always sell at the best prices recession or not.

Might be quite tricky to sell that house in Kensington Palace Gardens and the Mac F1 if people aren't able to see them in person!

[GT72]

av185 said:

GT72 said:

Lots of EA's will go out of business.

Only the spiv Jonny come Latelys.

Any estate agent can make money in the good times but few will in the bad.

We recently sold multi branch surveyors and ea practices which had survived all latter day downturns and recessions.

That may be the case, but those that do survive will do so through massive cuts. Knight Frank lost around half their resi staff in the 2008 recession. Savills, Countrywide, JLL and CBRE are already looking at staffing levels across the board and we've not even got to the latest recession yet.

As I say, I believe the housing market will stall, do you disagree, if so, I'd love to know why?

[gizlaroc]

av185 said:

Only the spiv Jonny come Latelys.

All EA round my way have said this could put them under.

[Thankyou4calling]

Pretty much any business which sells high value items ( particularly discretionary) is going to be right up against it.

In the same way you are seeing the impact of people catching Corona a month ago now, you’ll see the effect on business in 3 months.

It’s going to hurt and then some.

There will be those who talk it up, the odd one that seems to weather it but this economic downturn is going to be massive and long lasting.

In a years time I’d be surprised if ( for instance) half the restaurants that have closed re opens.

Same for car dealers .

[Tim O]

GT72 said:

That may be the case, but those that do survive will do so through massive cuts. Knight Frank lost around half their resi staff in the 2008 recession. Savills, Countrywide, JLL and CBRE are already looking at staffing levels across the board and we've not even got to the latest recession yet.

As I say, I believe the housing market will stall, do you disagree, if so, I'd love to know why?

Mate of mine, director level at JLL, has told me there’s considerable concern within the industry that office space demand will never recover. Too much space available, major recession coming, and the virus has accelerated new ways of working - work from home, hot desking, shared/serviced offices, video conferencing etc. etc..

I completed on a house purchase on Monday, agent was KF. Talk with local partner was very, very pessimistic. Smaller independents will go quickly, the KF, Savills and Countrywide will survive but will be much reduced in size for some time.

[Sa Calobra]

Too much space available- is that partly due to rents set too high, over expansion or a combination?

From previous experience and ex-colleagues ive heard grumblings and high rents and inflexibility to negotiate better rates and prefer to loose a Tennant with punitive exit penalties.

[av185]

GT72 said:

av185 said:

GT72 said:

Lots of EA's will go out of business.

Only the spiv Jonny come Latelys.

Any estate agent can make money in the good times but few will in the bad.

We recently sold multi branch surveyors and ea practices which had survived all latter day downturns and recessions.

That may be the case, but those that do survive will do so through massive cuts. Knight Frank lost around half their resi staff in the 2008 recession. Savills, Countrywide, JLL and CBRE are already looking at staffing levels across the board and we've not even got to the latest recession yet.

As I say, I believe the housing market will stall, do you disagree, if so, I'd love to know why?

Those companies you mention are the big boys with huge overstaffing colossal overheads and will suffer the most in a downturn not least because some are over reliant on commercial business which will be pummelled especially in the capital and southern regions where the majority of their fee income comes.

Specialist smaller regional practices e.g. in the northwest where markets across the board are far more buoyant principally due to affordability and their adaptability when times get tough give them a distinct advantage.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 2nd April 22:34

[Tim O]

Sa Calobra said:

Too much space available- is that partly due to rents set too high, over expansion or a combination?.

I’ll ask him to confirm, but I believe it to be over expansion. I had a stroll around Birmingham a couple of months back and was staggered at how much building was going on, with apparently a lot more in the pipeline.

[06andiano]

Again problem being EA's talk up the market to developers "market is crying out for grade a office, I'll get you a pre-let faster than you can build it..."

[GT72]

av185 said:

GT72 said:

av185 said:

GT72 said:

Lots of EA's will go out of business.

Only the spiv Jonny come Latelys.

Any estate agent can make money in the good times but few will in the bad.

We recently sold multi branch surveyors and ea practices which had survived all latter day downturns and recessions.

That may be the case, but those that do survive will do so through massive cuts. Knight Frank lost around half their resi staff in the 2008 recession. Savills, Countrywide, JLL and CBRE are already looking at staffing levels across the board and we've not even got to the latest recession yet.

As I say, I believe the housing market will stall, do you disagree, if so, I'd love to know why?

Those companies you mention are the big boys with huge overstaffing colossal overheads and will suffer the most in a downturn not least because some are over reliant on commercial business which will be pummelled especially in the capital and southern regions where the majority of their fee income comes.

Specialist smaller regional practices e.g. in the northwest where markets across the board are far more buoyant principally due to affordability and their adaptability when times get tough give them a distinct advantage.

Edited by av185 on Thursday 2nd April 22:34

I don't think the commercial side will be pummelled. Business Rates teams have never been busier, asset management teams have never been busier, industrial agency teams have never been busier, valuation teams will continue to make money as following the last recession banks are required to re-value properties every 24 months. Regulated Purpose Valuations will move from quarterly to monthly and in some cases weekly, increasing fees. Brexit stalled the investment market with numerous UK and European funds holding significant cash reserves. Those funds are likely to re-enter the market, so whilst investment transactions will be at a lower level, they will occur. There will be a drop in values, but it's very very unlikely the commercial market will suffer to the same degree as residential. There will be an adjustment in the retail and leisure markets, but that was already happening before Covid-19, it's just accelerating it. The shopping centre market has been like a car crash in slow motion for the last 12 months.

The residential market will suffer far worse and certainly within those firms mentioned it is the residential divisions that are being focused upon.

North West residential agents will suffer the same as everyone else. If the market is stalled there will be no fees, some may have bigger cash reserves than others but they'll still suffer.

Which North West firms do you think will remain profitable?