ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
Discussion
thiscocks said:
If you assume every new car is EV powered then the impossibly massive increase in energy production from power stations needed to support it would easily negate the tiny amount of road pollutants created by new ICE vehicles. Thats not even talking about the global issues of mining for battery production, Co2 increase in li-ion battery production and battery disposal.
You are of course ignoring the pollution caused by drilling for oil and then refining it into petrol and diesel. And accidents in production and transportation, such as BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. The resulting spill covered 68,000 square miles of sea surface and killed approximately 1 million coastal and offshore seabirds, 5,000 marine mammals and 1,000 sea turtles.You make an EV and you produce pollutants twice; once when it's made and once when it's recycled.
You make an ICE engine and you produce pollutants once when it's made, once when it's recycled and for the life of the car in between the two.
Max_Torque said:
bigothunter said:
EVs generate more tyre particulate pollution than ICE cars..
No they don't. Go read the actual study that his suggestion came from. It's massively biased, makes eroneous assumptions, and been debunked numerous times.In reality, most EV owners suggest that the tyres on their EV last LONGER than on there ICE. This is for two main reasons:
1) They tend to drive EVs smoother (they suit a relaxed driving style
2) EVs load there tyres with far less torsional vibrations (because an electric motor pretty much produces a constant torque as it revolves, unlike an ICE that produces a massive torque spike each time a cylinder fires and then acts as a brake as the engine friction slows the crank back down again
3) Using regen brakign for most of your braking is massively smoother for the average driver (less jerky) because the system is controlling the rate of torque change,and hence unlike most drivers who are very clumsy with the controls, the effective tyre slip is less
4) Very fast traction control. EVs control torque roughly 1,000 times a second, and having true bi-directionality they can both apply a positive and negative torque in equal magnitude. As such, they have much, much better control of wheel slip which means less tyre wear (and why they are so fast on the 0-60 mph sprint, because they don't' spin their tyres!)
Zero Secondary Principle
Recalling the Dieselgate crisis, where nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions were found to be insufficiently regulated in a way that led to damagingly high emissions in the real world, there is a big risk from the non-exhaust emissions from BEVs, especially in regard to tyre wear. Due to the weight of batteries, BEV vehicles are significantly heavier that like-for-like ICE vehicles. As a result, for the same grade of tyre and driving patterns, non-exhaust emissions from wear on those tyres will be higher for the BEV. The regenerative braking for BEVs may lead to lower brake wear emissions compared to ICEs, but this is unlikely to counterbalance the increased tyre wear emissions. Therefore, the risk is that the CO2 reduction from BEVs is traded for a degradation in air quality and other microplastic pollution.
https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/eight-prin...
NMNeil said:
thiscocks said:
If you assume every new car is EV powered then the impossibly massive increase in energy production from power stations needed to support it would easily negate the tiny amount of road pollutants created by new ICE vehicles. Thats not even talking about the global issues of mining for battery production, Co2 increase in li-ion battery production and battery disposal.
You are of course ignoring the pollution caused by drilling for oil and then refining it into petrol and diesel. And accidents in production and transportation, such as BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. The resulting spill covered 68,000 square miles of sea surface and killed approximately 1 million coastal and offshore seabirds, 5,000 marine mammals and 1,000 sea turtles.You make an EV and you produce pollutants twice; once when it's made and once when it's recycled.
You make an ICE engine and you produce pollutants once when it's made, once when it's recycled and for the life of the car in between the two.
ejenner said:
I take your Deepwater Horizon and raise you one Chernobyl
I accept your raise and will go all in.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills
NMNeil said:
ejenner said:
I take your Deepwater Horizon and raise you one Chernobyl
I accept your raise and will go all in.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills
NMNeil said:
ejenner said:
I take your Deepwater Horizon and raise you one Chernobyl
I accept your raise and will go all in.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_spills
I was only responding to the point however. My view is that the argument is infinite to the point where humans shouldn't exist at all, then there'd be none of this pollution. So at some point the balance has to shift to a point where you say "yeah it's dirty... but we gotta feed our kids" and that's eventual obstacle you'll come to when all is said and done.
Interesting question, OP. Shame the thread has descended into bickering. Having stepped away from “interesting cars” a few years ago (young family), the 2030 ICE sales ban is making me wonder whether it is the right time to get another interesting ICE car, perhaps to keep for posterity, so I have been giving this some thought lately.
Some considerations that I don’t think have been mentioned in this thread:
Whilst it is not impossible that government policy might change, the current administration, and the new administration in the US, is serious about tackling climate change. It has signalled its intentions to car manufacturers by announcing the 2030 sales ban, and will use the levers available to it to effect change. In the short/medium term that is likely to take the form of relatively punitive taxes on high-polluting ICE cars. I anticipate purchase taxes of at least £5k or more on high CO2 cars to dissuade sales, reducing in line with falling CO2 emissions. The UK government is already consulting on this.
The key question, for me, is whether those much higher taxes will be made retrospective in any way (i.e. will they apply to existing cars, and if so, what the cut off will be). Will they pick a date like 2001 or 2010 and say that cars registered before then will remain taxed under the existing regime? Governments don’t generally like retrospective taxation, rightly viewing it as a unfair, so they may only do it for new cars going forward from, say, 2022. Buying a gas guzzler today could therefore be a shrewd move, if you want one.
In the medium term, some form of road pricing seems likely, although there has been a lot of public resistance to this in the past. I’m not clear what that will mean for fuel taxation, but I can’t see fuel being made a lot cheaper. Road pricing could be beneficial for a weekend car that does low miles.
EVs will become increasingly popular once the average Joe realises how nice they are to drive and how charging and range really aren’t an issue (both likely improving significantly as we move through the decade). I reckon sales of ICE cars will likely fall naturally towards 2030 so that when the ban on sales finally comes, it won’t be such a big deal. Manufacturers also won’t care, as they will be fully invested in EVs by that point.
There will, I’m sure, be more “interesting”, desirable and high performance EVs in the next few years, as manufacturers, having satisfied the mainstream, seek to appeal more to the enthusiast market, and technology improves. Judging by current EV performance, even fast ICE cars will be slow by future EV standards, rendering fast petrol cars to some eyes a bit silly and pointless, although of course to some enthusiasts they will never be as characterful or as special as ICE cars.
That may mean that the only people who drive ICE cars are retro enthusiasts who love their sound and who romanticise them despite them being relatively slow and unreliable. A bit like old classics today. Provided this is a relatively small group, and not the mainstream, the government may, I hope, tolerate these cars continuing to be used as not incompatible with climate change objectives.
That could leave a small classic/ICE scene of folk from pistonheads meeting up at pre-2030 classic car events and looking at, listening to, and reminiscing about ICE cars from their youth, as people do now at steam engine shows and vintage car shows. There will also presumably be an industry to service these old cars, although it will be a much smaller market than now. Hard to say what that means for values. They may stay high for the right cars, as the market will be smaller but so will the pool of available ICE cars. Most regular, uninteresting ICE cars will likely be scrapped.
There is, I think, some risk that, in a world of silent EVs, a loud ICE car becomes socially unacceptable and a bit embarrassing. However, the cultural significance of older cars, from old films etc, is so strong that I am optimistic that that won't happen and that they won’t be forced off the roads completely. They will likely be banned from cities, except by special dispensation for special “historic” events, rallies, car clubs etc. Indeed, they may even be encouraged as part of our common history. Imagine people pointing and waving as you drive your old ICE among a sea of EVs, drawing the sort of stares and attention that pre-war cars on the roads draw now.
Autonomous vehicles represent a much greater threat to current petrolheads than EVs, as the authorities may not tolerate a self-driven car if the future transport system is based around convoys of autonomous vehicles. That, however, is too dystopian for me to contemplate.
So, if you are thinking of buying a special, brand new ICE car, now, I would say go for it and just enjoy it, but I would mentally write down its value to 0 by 2030 and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I would also accept that there is a some risk of getting hit with some nasty retrospective taxes in the near future. A modern or actual classic may be a safer bet on that front, but could still be hit with big taxes in future. Longer term (i.e. beyond 2035), I’d say all bets are off because of the threat/promise of autonomous vehicles.
I could be wrong about all of this of course, and I make no claim to any expertise in this area. Just my tuppence for the debate.
Sorry for the overly long post.
Some considerations that I don’t think have been mentioned in this thread:
Whilst it is not impossible that government policy might change, the current administration, and the new administration in the US, is serious about tackling climate change. It has signalled its intentions to car manufacturers by announcing the 2030 sales ban, and will use the levers available to it to effect change. In the short/medium term that is likely to take the form of relatively punitive taxes on high-polluting ICE cars. I anticipate purchase taxes of at least £5k or more on high CO2 cars to dissuade sales, reducing in line with falling CO2 emissions. The UK government is already consulting on this.
The key question, for me, is whether those much higher taxes will be made retrospective in any way (i.e. will they apply to existing cars, and if so, what the cut off will be). Will they pick a date like 2001 or 2010 and say that cars registered before then will remain taxed under the existing regime? Governments don’t generally like retrospective taxation, rightly viewing it as a unfair, so they may only do it for new cars going forward from, say, 2022. Buying a gas guzzler today could therefore be a shrewd move, if you want one.
In the medium term, some form of road pricing seems likely, although there has been a lot of public resistance to this in the past. I’m not clear what that will mean for fuel taxation, but I can’t see fuel being made a lot cheaper. Road pricing could be beneficial for a weekend car that does low miles.
EVs will become increasingly popular once the average Joe realises how nice they are to drive and how charging and range really aren’t an issue (both likely improving significantly as we move through the decade). I reckon sales of ICE cars will likely fall naturally towards 2030 so that when the ban on sales finally comes, it won’t be such a big deal. Manufacturers also won’t care, as they will be fully invested in EVs by that point.
There will, I’m sure, be more “interesting”, desirable and high performance EVs in the next few years, as manufacturers, having satisfied the mainstream, seek to appeal more to the enthusiast market, and technology improves. Judging by current EV performance, even fast ICE cars will be slow by future EV standards, rendering fast petrol cars to some eyes a bit silly and pointless, although of course to some enthusiasts they will never be as characterful or as special as ICE cars.
That may mean that the only people who drive ICE cars are retro enthusiasts who love their sound and who romanticise them despite them being relatively slow and unreliable. A bit like old classics today. Provided this is a relatively small group, and not the mainstream, the government may, I hope, tolerate these cars continuing to be used as not incompatible with climate change objectives.
That could leave a small classic/ICE scene of folk from pistonheads meeting up at pre-2030 classic car events and looking at, listening to, and reminiscing about ICE cars from their youth, as people do now at steam engine shows and vintage car shows. There will also presumably be an industry to service these old cars, although it will be a much smaller market than now. Hard to say what that means for values. They may stay high for the right cars, as the market will be smaller but so will the pool of available ICE cars. Most regular, uninteresting ICE cars will likely be scrapped.
There is, I think, some risk that, in a world of silent EVs, a loud ICE car becomes socially unacceptable and a bit embarrassing. However, the cultural significance of older cars, from old films etc, is so strong that I am optimistic that that won't happen and that they won’t be forced off the roads completely. They will likely be banned from cities, except by special dispensation for special “historic” events, rallies, car clubs etc. Indeed, they may even be encouraged as part of our common history. Imagine people pointing and waving as you drive your old ICE among a sea of EVs, drawing the sort of stares and attention that pre-war cars on the roads draw now.
Autonomous vehicles represent a much greater threat to current petrolheads than EVs, as the authorities may not tolerate a self-driven car if the future transport system is based around convoys of autonomous vehicles. That, however, is too dystopian for me to contemplate.
So, if you are thinking of buying a special, brand new ICE car, now, I would say go for it and just enjoy it, but I would mentally write down its value to 0 by 2030 and hope to be pleasantly surprised. I would also accept that there is a some risk of getting hit with some nasty retrospective taxes in the near future. A modern or actual classic may be a safer bet on that front, but could still be hit with big taxes in future. Longer term (i.e. beyond 2035), I’d say all bets are off because of the threat/promise of autonomous vehicles.
I could be wrong about all of this of course, and I make no claim to any expertise in this area. Just my tuppence for the debate.
Sorry for the overly long post.
Great post lil red GTO , some good points.
Reflects a lot of my thoughts and feelings going forward from here on in.
Big questions are will it be retrospectively applied to "old" gas guzzlers and how punitive and resulting disastrous residuals?
I'm looking at something special and will be fairly expensive purchase for me, and that's the issue you see. All previous cars I have bought out right I have looked at writing off the whole cost of the vehicle when I purchased it. Pessimistic I know, any value remaining is just a bonus.
The car I am looking at are a significant sum so not comfortable using this philosophy this time. Maybe the answer is PCP and hand it back after 3/4 years. I'm undecided. I was planning to keep the car for many years, meaning I have to choose the right one.
It's somewhat ironic that the car will not be travelling a lot of miles as I have other cars for daily duties yet VED will be sizeable which is only going to increase im sure.
Ah decisions, decisions!
Reflects a lot of my thoughts and feelings going forward from here on in.
Big questions are will it be retrospectively applied to "old" gas guzzlers and how punitive and resulting disastrous residuals?
I'm looking at something special and will be fairly expensive purchase for me, and that's the issue you see. All previous cars I have bought out right I have looked at writing off the whole cost of the vehicle when I purchased it. Pessimistic I know, any value remaining is just a bonus.
The car I am looking at are a significant sum so not comfortable using this philosophy this time. Maybe the answer is PCP and hand it back after 3/4 years. I'm undecided. I was planning to keep the car for many years, meaning I have to choose the right one.
It's somewhat ironic that the car will not be travelling a lot of miles as I have other cars for daily duties yet VED will be sizeable which is only going to increase im sure.
Ah decisions, decisions!
Max_Torque said:
alfaspecial said:
I find it amusing that the 'early adopters' profess such enthusiasm for BEVs, as they bang on about the performance and the (subsidised) economy of running them - but 'they' don't acknowledge the direction of travel - that 'driving' is to become mere 'transport'.
er, i bought my EV 5 years ago precisely because it was just "transport". Ridiculously cheap, extremely practical, vitrually depreciation and running cost free transport. This allows me to commute to work in a queue of muppets nose to tail doing 7 mph, in comfort, for such a low amount of money, i can have a 600 bhp toy in the garage for when i actually want to drive.......rodericb said:
Max_Torque said:
alfaspecial said:
I find it amusing that the 'early adopters' profess such enthusiasm for BEVs, as they bang on about the performance and the (subsidised) economy of running them - but 'they' don't acknowledge the direction of travel - that 'driving' is to become mere 'transport'.
er, i bought my EV 5 years ago precisely because it was just "transport". Ridiculously cheap, extremely practical, vitrually depreciation and running cost free transport. This allows me to commute to work in a queue of muppets nose to tail doing 7 mph, in comfort, for such a low amount of money, i can have a 600 bhp toy in the garage for when i actually want to drive.......OP - Buy the Porsche. Petrol and diesel will be available for decades.
ICE cars will still be available new in 2030, just with batteries and a motor.
2030 is only 9 years away. I remember 9 year ago in 2012 when the Leaf, Zoe, Model S etc came out, all the same arguments for and against BEV's are still being debated now, we are no further forward.
ICE cars will still be available new in 2030, just with batteries and a motor.
2030 is only 9 years away. I remember 9 year ago in 2012 when the Leaf, Zoe, Model S etc came out, all the same arguments for and against BEV's are still being debated now, we are no further forward.
Most finance professionals in the energy industry and energy companies predict oil demand to raise globally until at least 2035. A country like the UK mandating EV's is doing very little to curb global oil demand or in reality pollution. All government EV zealots are doing is increasing the cost of driving for people not able to afford an EV. Probably bankrupting a bunch of car companies and giving more power and money to big tech companies.
This big EV push is really a way to increase taxes and control while hiding behind "green" scaremongering just like carbon taxes on flights. In the US this is typified by California desperate to raise taxes. I expect the UK to not meet these targets and change their EV strategy closer to the dates given. Probably something along the lines of we have reached 50% EV and that is enough etc. EV's will also be taxed more as soon as a certain % are on the roads. There will be a government financial matrix somewhere that shows the best balance of EV and ICE to generate the most taxes. Just like cigarettes: government still enjoys the taxes smokers bring in and will not ban them.
This big EV push is really a way to increase taxes and control while hiding behind "green" scaremongering just like carbon taxes on flights. In the US this is typified by California desperate to raise taxes. I expect the UK to not meet these targets and change their EV strategy closer to the dates given. Probably something along the lines of we have reached 50% EV and that is enough etc. EV's will also be taxed more as soon as a certain % are on the roads. There will be a government financial matrix somewhere that shows the best balance of EV and ICE to generate the most taxes. Just like cigarettes: government still enjoys the taxes smokers bring in and will not ban them.
Edited by blackrabbit on Thursday 11th February 09:09
Edited by blackrabbit on Thursday 11th February 09:24
This seems inevitable, although I'm still hopeful that there will be exemptions for classic vehicles over the long-term. I do agree that the ban on new sales will coincide with a hike in taxes on EVs, no doubt about that.
One question, if there are classic exemptions who will decide what qualifies?
One question, if there are classic exemptions who will decide what qualifies?
RobGwynRGC said:
This seems inevitable, although I'm still hopeful that there will be exemptions for classic vehicles over the long-term. I do agree that the ban on new sales will coincide with a hike in taxes on EVs, no doubt about that.
One question, if there are classic exemptions who will decide what qualifies?
Exemptions to what? new car sales? Classic cars aren't new!One question, if there are classic exemptions who will decide what qualifies?
If you're referring to tax, then probably the same/similar system as now. Whether sales of new petrol/dieselds are banned or not, that won't determine tax regulations on used cars.
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