Large capacity engines. Very sought after or hot potato?

[Condi]

KTMsm said:

I disagree, as a daily driver you're correct - but as cars get older they are used for very limited mileage so the cost per mile is far less of an issue

Yes, if you're buying a classic, but something 5-10 years old is not "very limited mileage" territory yet. My mileage is a lot lower than it used to be and have looked at something like an S4, but the £600 tax and 20mpg at £1.60/l is entirely unreasonable for a daily driver, even if only doing 6000 miles a year. That's over 36p a mile in fuel and 10p/mile in tax - add insurance and maintenance and you'd easily be over 60p/mile all in.

Edited by Condi on Tuesday 31st May 11:31

[PDP76]

Condi said:

Yes, if you're buying a classic, but something 5-10 years old is not "very limited mileage" territory yet. My mileage is a lot lower than it used to be and have looked at something like an S4, but the £600 tax and 20mpg is entirely unreasonable for a daily driver, even if only doing 6000 miles a year.

I wouldn’t worry about it too much.
I only do about 6k miles a year too.
3 yrs ago i looked at S4/5 etc.
They got dismissed as not being on the drive very long as at the time anything within that marque and badging was serious twoc metal.
I went for and still run a C350 coupe (3.5 V6) it flies under the radar compared to Audi, BMW quicker stuff.
Tax is around 250 or so. Mpg is often anywhere between 20/25 mpg.
Low mileage and nice daily. What’s not to like.

[AC43]

Mr E said:

JAMSXR said:

I’ve noticed a few people down my road have swapped their 15-20k ICE cars for 60K+ EVs. I’m pretty sure it’s not to save money or the environment, it’s because we like shiny new gadgets.

I think it’s because it’s tax efficient via salary sacrifice tbh.

Exactly. If you run your own company/are on a generous car scheme/like getting new cars then getting an EV is a no-brainer.

Round here there are stacks Model 3's and S's that that have replaced the usual BM/Merc/Audi on the drive.

[AC43]

BIRMA said:

In answer to the OP's question I don't think it matters that much, I don't think they'll be either sought after or a hot potato. My friends run Tesla's, 3 of them do in total, some have very nice collections of V 12 Jaguar's etc.
I have tried their Tesla once and the fact that you can make it fart and be amused for 10 minutes with the regenerative braking my extended drive drew me to the conclusion that in my personal opinion it was crap and I told him so. Okay it seemed to be faster than my recent V12 twin turbo'd AMG but where was the drama.
I'm just about to extend my largish capacity engined cars by buying a 3.4 litre flat 6 Boxster I also have a V8 5 litre Lexus RCF for sale in the classified at the moment not because it is a hot potato but because I've only done 600 miles since the last annual service. In fact I'm going to remove it for sale and get out more.

Yeah I've got one mate who had an i3 and now has a model 3. But he's also got an SLC 420 and a third car on top. He's recently gone E30 325i to CLA 250 to some sort of pick-up truck.

Another mate has a Kona and a TR6.

The EV's go through their businesses

[PomBstard]

Condi said:

KTMsm said:

I disagree, as a daily driver you're correct - but as cars get older they are used for very limited mileage so the cost per mile is far less of an issue

Yes, if you're buying a classic, but something 5-10 years old is not "very limited mileage" territory yet. My mileage is a lot lower than it used to be and have looked at something like an S4, but the £600 tax and 20mpg at £1.60/l is entirely unreasonable for a daily driver, even if only doing 6000 miles a year. That's over 36p a mile in fuel and 10p/mile in tax - add insurance and maintenance and you'd easily be over 60p/mile all in.

Edited by Condi on Tuesday 31st May 11:31

My daily family wagon is about 6 years old and runs a 6.2 V8. I’ve recently updated my RC thread on this and the maths shows it’s cost me the equivalent of 38p/mile to run over the past two years/15,000miles.

I’ve got appreciation to thanks for that - the value has gone up, by around 30% since I bought it. If it now falls over the coming two years back to what I paid for it, then I’ll just have to make do with zero depreciation over four years.

Of course, it’s all crystal ball stuff, so none of its planned, just good to get the jollies when we can!

[braddo]

PomBstard said:

... the value has gone up, by around 30% since I bought it....

The prices of Australian cars seem to have gone absolutely mental, or at least everything in Just Cars magazine is! Stuff like old, rubbish, standard Kingswoods and Falcons from the 70s/80s going for $40-50k etc.

[PomBstard]

braddo said:

PomBstard said:

... the value has gone up, by around 30% since I bought it....

The prices of Australian cars seem to have gone absolutely mental, or at least everything in Just Cars magazine is! Stuff like old, rubbish, standard Kingswoods and Falcons from the 70s/80s going for $40-50k etc.

So, nothing like rubbish old Fords and the like from 70s/80s…

[cidered77]

PomBstard said:

Condi said:

KTMsm said:

I disagree, as a daily driver you're correct - but as cars get older they are used for very limited mileage so the cost per mile is far less of an issue

Yes, if you're buying a classic, but something 5-10 years old is not "very limited mileage" territory yet. My mileage is a lot lower than it used to be and have looked at something like an S4, but the £600 tax and 20mpg at £1.60/l is entirely unreasonable for a daily driver, even if only doing 6000 miles a year. That's over 36p a mile in fuel and 10p/mile in tax - add insurance and maintenance and you'd easily be over 60p/mile all in.

Edited by Condi on Tuesday 31st May 11:31

My daily family wagon is about 6 years old and runs a 6.2 V8. I’ve recently updated my RC thread on this and the maths shows it’s cost me the equivalent of 38p/mile to run over the past two years/15,000miles.

I’ve got appreciation to thanks for that - the value has gone up, by around 30% since I bought it. If it now falls over the coming two years back to what I paid for it, then I’ll just have to make do with zero depreciation over four years.

Of course, it’s all crystal ball stuff, so none of its planned, just good to get the jollies when we can!

inspired by this post, i dusted down the old "CarTCOManMathsCalculator" to work out costs for my next daily driver.

likely to move to a 5 mile to a 60 mile each way commute, so the GR Yaris whilst great, isn't good for 15k miles a year. Wondered if its time to go EV, or whether i could get that CL500 always fancied.

Options were:

• Used Tesla Model 3, long range or performance, about 45k from Tesla (the EV option)
• Absolutely fully loaded 2 year old Volvo V90 estate B4 diesel, 30k, with the crazy 1400W stereo (the boring but extremely comfy option)
• New or nearly new 68k Alpina D3S (the 'probably the best all round high mileage commuter car in the world' option)
• Used Mercedes CL500, C216 model, with the 435bhp V8, about 15k (the "always fancied one of these" option).

Plugging in residual values from the moneycalculator site, and realistic MPG, approx insurance, fuel(kws), maintenance and tax- and assuming 3 year ownership and no finance, then rather annoyingly in total cost per mile order:

1. Tesla, 45p per mile. 20.3k total cost of ownership.
2. Volvo. 50p per mile. 22.3k total cost of ownership
3. Big Merc. 55p per mile. 24.6k total cost of ownership
4. Alpina .64p per mile . 28.7k total cost of ownership .

Even with average residuals the nearly new EV is much cheaper. But whilst got no issues with EV, and could charge at home, Tesla just not refined enough for a commuter .I want a great ride, little noise, and a massive sound system - model 3 just not good enough here for me. Surprised the CL faired that badly, but here you're less predictable. 3k out of service costs estimates could be half, or double - and residuals for these i've watched for years, and they've crept up not down - that 15k car would be a 14k car a couple of years back. So who knows. Alpina is so rare residuals should be good - but in 3 years, would even die hard Alpina fans favour a diesel for high mileage vs. what EVs would be doing then?

Anyways - not really related to the thread, just sharing because i love a spreadsheet. It's between the Volvo and the Alpina - of course it should be the Alpina, but that's 38k of cash could be used for something else, and really - how much fun driving do you have for 120 miles on a motorway......

edit: updated as spreadsheet error, order still same tho

Edited by cidered77 on Wednesday 1st June 10:29

[J4CKO]

I think that it will get harder to own an ICE car, I suspect that fuel stations will start dwindling even more than they already have, concentrated as they are in a lot of cases from say 5 locally to maybe 1 local 1 and one at a supermarket not too far away.

I suspect the panic EV drivers feel looking for a charge will dwindle as charging opportunities get more numerous and ranges improve, and the ICE drivers will have the panic of 20 miles left and a lack of fuel nearby, no company will keep a station open if it isnt pulling in the trade.

EV's will improve, its what happens and I expect a step change in battery tech to appear in the next 5 years which will make existing EV's look like your Amstrad Emailer does now. As it is now, ICE has range and ease of fueling advantages, they will go, will still take longer to charge and EV than put Dinosaurs in but if there is a 30 mile round trip to find any petrol or diesel then it loses its advantage.

I cant see most people in 20 years faffing about with ICE cars other than conscientious objectors and enthusiasts, a lot of the die hards will either be past driving or dead, I will be 71 in 20 years so maybe a few years left driving but not that many, assuming I make it that far. There will be a lot of ICE cars used by those who cant afford new cars but EV's will migrate down and cheaper options will emerge as manufacturers achieve economies of scale and want to hot more market segments than big/expensive SUV type things, needs to be more small/cheap EV's but they dont really work that well at the moment due to not being able to fit in half a ton of Lithium Ion batteries.

The government will have to tax EV usage, they cant not do if we want an NHS, Police, Education etc. I think they may lay off ICE drivers a little as at £2 a litre almost and £600 VED, especially as numbers dwindle as it wont be worth it for what it raises, but they will absolutely start rinsing the EV drivers as soon as critical mass is achieved and there is no easy way back to ICE.

[anonymous-user]

You only have to look at Norway to see that if the infrastructure exists and the tax benefits are in place then very few people will choose to buy an ICE powered car over an EV.

The majority of car manufacturers no longer make diesel engine cars, and the majority of them have a clear path to producing EV only vehicles over the next few years. I initially scoffed at the 2030 ban on ICE powered cars, but I can really see this happening now. The main issue in the UK is that we really don't have the charging infrastructure in place, I think this is putting a lot of people off at present.

It is clear EVs are the future and they are only going to get better and better, to the point where it is going to be a no brainer if you are buying a new car. Once the charging infrastructure gets bigger and the range gets better more and more people will choose an EV over an ICE car.

I have just ordered a brand new petrol car, I plan on keeping it for 15 years and my plan is that by then the charging infrastructure will exist and the range and price of EVs will make them as convenient as owning a ICE car now. It is clear as there are less and less ICE cars on the road as they become end of life that the number of petrol stations is also going to reduce.

I think we are seeing the last days of the ICE car, especially as few manufacturers are investing in the technology anymore, the cars that exist now are pretty much as good as it is going to get for the ICE. In 20 years time I really cannot see them being sought after, who knows what legislation is going to be introduced in future to make them very difficult and expensive to use on the road.

[PomBstard]

cidered77 said:

Plugging in residual values from the moneycalculator site, and realistic MPG, approx insurance, fuel(kws), maintenance and tax- and assuming 3 year ownership and no finance, then rather annoyingly in total cost per mile order:

1. Tesla, 45p per mile. 20.3k total cost of ownership.
2. Volvo. 50p per mile. 22.3k total cost of ownership
3. Big Merc. 55p per mile. 24.6k total cost of ownership
4. Alpina .64p per mile . 28.7k total cost of ownership .

To apply the CarTCOManMathsCalculator correctly you need to finish the analysis…

The 8.4k difference between the Tesla and the Alpina is about a coffee and a muffin a day* which I think is a small price to pay for your own personal satisfaction and happiness.

• Minor quibbles regarding the ability to get said beverage/snack combo for less demonstrates incomplete understanding of the ManMathsCalculator and may render future analyses null and void when presented to your financial partner.

[cidered77]

PomBstard said:

cidered77 said:

Plugging in residual values from the moneycalculator site, and realistic MPG, approx insurance, fuel(kws), maintenance and tax- and assuming 3 year ownership and no finance, then rather annoyingly in total cost per mile order:

1. Tesla, 45p per mile. 20.3k total cost of ownership.
2. Volvo. 50p per mile. 22.3k total cost of ownership
3. Big Merc. 55p per mile. 24.6k total cost of ownership
4. Alpina .64p per mile . 28.7k total cost of ownership .

To apply the CarTCOManMathsCalculator correctly you need to finish the analysis…

The 8.4k difference between the Tesla and the Alpina is about a coffee and a muffin a day* which I think is a small price to pay for your own personal satisfaction and happiness.

• Minor quibbles regarding the ability to get said beverage/snack combo for less demonstrates incomplete understanding of the ManMathsCalculator and may render future analyses null and void when presented to your financial partner.

Column GKA now added, including MuffinCoffee factor. Will keep tweaking the maths until D3 is justified.

Next release includes column GKB, the "and what price is happiness anyway?" factor.

[cidered77]

Joey Deacon said:

You only have to look at Norway to see that if the infrastructure exists and the tax benefits are in place then very few people will choose to buy an ICE powered car over an EV.

The majority of car manufacturers no longer make diesel engine cars, and the majority of them have a clear path to producing EV only vehicles over the next few years. I initially scoffed at the 2030 ban on ICE powered cars, but I can really see this happening now. The main issue in the UK is that we really don't have the charging infrastructure in place, I think this is putting a lot of people off at present.

It is clear EVs are the future and they are only going to get better and better, to the point where it is going to be a no brainer if you are buying a new car. Once the charging infrastructure gets bigger and the range gets better more and more people will choose an EV over an ICE car.

I have just ordered a brand new petrol car, I plan on keeping it for 15 years and my plan is that by then the charging infrastructure will exist and the range and price of EVs will make them as convenient as owning a ICE car now. It is clear as there are less and less ICE cars on the road as they become end of life that the number of petrol stations is also going to reduce.

I think we are seeing the last days of the ICE car, especially as few manufacturers are investing in the technology anymore, the cars that exist now are pretty much as good as it is going to get for the ICE. In 20 years time I really cannot see them being sought after, who knows what legislation is going to be introduced in future to make them very difficult and expensive to use on the road.

I think the "charging infrastructure" thing has way more airtime - on social media, forums and podcasts especially - than it should really command.

Even today if we take a modest 200 mile range and apparently 72% of car owners able to charge at home, is that such a big deal? its a tiny perentage of real life road users who regularly go more than that in a day. Raise than to 300 miles, which will happen with ease as tech progresses - and there we go...

the people who live on streets, etc etc "they will never be able to charge".... 20 years ago we got out internet from a telephone line, now we all appear at worst to have DSL, and more and more of us have fibre or cable directly into the home. That didn't happen by magic - whole new networks were built, and existing networks extended. Because there was loads of money to be made. Sounds familiar...

Give it a couple of years, and even the most angry of middle aged man meme-junkie (see a few posts up for "EVs are not at all better for emissions in anyway ever" guy) will quietly move over, because for normal mass transport the cost and the convenience (yes convenience - fuelling at home is just better than going to a ever reducing number of petrol stations) will make it obvious.

Leaving just the enthusiasts left to run ICE, which is all good with me. As long as we stay committed, and keep spending on parts and specialists, and accept its more expensive, more of a pain, and maybe even not-particularly-socially-acceptable, we can keep the iCE cars going for at least the rest of our driving years.

Not for the generation below, for unfortunately they just won't care as much about clattering pieces of metal bashing into each other to convert fuel into kinetic energy (plus noise and heat) as us old men....

[PomBstard]

cidered77 said:

PomBstard said:

cidered77 said:

Plugging in residual values from the moneycalculator site, and realistic MPG, approx insurance, fuel(kws), maintenance and tax- and assuming 3 year ownership and no finance, then rather annoyingly in total cost per mile order:

1. Tesla, 45p per mile. 20.3k total cost of ownership.
2. Volvo. 50p per mile. 22.3k total cost of ownership
3. Big Merc. 55p per mile. 24.6k total cost of ownership
4. Alpina .64p per mile . 28.7k total cost of ownership .

To apply the CarTCOManMathsCalculator correctly you need to finish the analysis…

The 8.4k difference between the Tesla and the Alpina is about a coffee and a muffin a day* which I think is a small price to pay for your own personal satisfaction and happiness.

• Minor quibbles regarding the ability to get said beverage/snack combo for less demonstrates incomplete understanding of the ManMathsCalculator and may render future analyses null and void when presented to your financial partner.

Column GKA now added, including MuffinCoffee factor. Will keep tweaking the maths until D3 is justified.

Next release includes column GKB, the "and what price is happiness anyway?" factor.

There ya go

[braddo]

PomBstard said:

So, nothing like rubbish old Fords and the like from 70s/80s…

Perhaps, but not sure that standard cooking Cortinas, Granadas and 4-door Escorts are going for anything like that in the UK.

Higher performance stuff worth more of course, but then the equivalent in Oz even more nuts (Monaros, GTS Kingswoods, Toranas, boggo V8 Falcons, let alone GT Falcons!).

Anyway, keep enjoying that Calais. I'd like one like that over here (wifey definitely wouldn't )!

[QBee]

A coffee and a muffin a day? £8,500?
Sorry, but I work from home and make my own real coffee for about 15p a mug.
But I agree, there's a lot to be said for a good muffin' every day, mid-morning would be perfect.

[PomBstard]

Over three years it’s less than 8quid a day. Now, granted, that likely buys a pretty tasty muffin and a good coffee, but as I noted earlier quibbling around such details is not the way Man Maths works.

It’s still just a coffee and a muffin a day, that’s all. And in return, your happiness and contentment.

We’re all quite cheap, really

[cidered77]

PomBstard said:

Over three years it’s less than 8quid a day. Now, granted, that likely buys a pretty tasty muffin and a good coffee, but as I noted earlier quibbling around such details is not the way Man Maths works.

It’s still just a coffee and a muffin a day, that’s all. And in return, your happiness and contentment.

We’re all quite cheap, really

But if we, for example, said it was a muffin, coffee *and a big packet of crisps*, then we are pretty much there, surely.

Plus - by definition selecting an Alpina over a Volvo means not getting these things daily, which saves calories, and also means less money on buying new clothes for an expanding waistline.

this is degree level Man Maths, granted. But not quite PHD level......

[Deranged Rover]

cidered77 said:

Column GKA now added, including MuffinCoffee factor. Will keep tweaking the maths until D3 is justified.

Next release includes column GKB, the "and what price is happiness anyway?" factor.

Surely by simple Man Reasoning, which is used to determine the correct outcome following the use of Man Maths, the fact that we (and you, probably!) were sure that the Merc would come last but it actually didn't, means it's the sensible option to go for?

[cidered77]

Deranged Rover said:

cidered77 said:

Column GKA now added, including MuffinCoffee factor. Will keep tweaking the maths until D3 is justified.

Next release includes column GKB, the "and what price is happiness anyway?" factor.

Surely by simple Man Reasoning, which is used to determine the correct outcome following the use of Man Maths, the fact that we (and you, probably!) were sure that the Merc would come last but it actually didn't, means it's the sensible option to go for?

Well yes - agree that is ultimately what #MM is for, but in this case genuinely expected the old "buy an old interesting inefficient car that doesn't have much more to depreciate and its cheaper than a new sensible one" argument to win through... i thought the merc would be cheapest, and the Tesla to fair badly, as their residuals aren't much to shout about. If it were 5k miles a year then it probably would have - but 15k a year the fuel and maintenance really adds up.

Despite this thread being initially about large capacity engines, whilst i would love a CL500, especially the 435bhp one, i would * really love* an Alpina D3, and as the D3 S is relatively efficient and so rare i had hoped the excellent residuals would see it higher . But it's still a 68k car, so there is still a lot of real money to come off it.... even if the %ages are quite good vs. the others.

if anything what this exercise has reconfirmed to me, is that if you look at cost of motoring "properly" - then there is an awful lot more to it than just purchase price or "the monthlies", and for these 4 really different options really not a huge amount of difference between them.

Leaving the manmaths/muffin factor free to select the one you actually wanted in the first place.....