RE: Aston Martin confirms its intention to go public

[akirk]

alfaman said:

Ridiculous valuation

( have done a main board IPO / RTO ... so appreciate some of the risks / issues )

1/ ridiculous EV / EBITDA multiple for a business with sector risks

2/ very short track record of solid earnings / weak earnings quality ( 2017 figures ‘fluffed’ ?)

3/ lack of compelling story for where the growth is coming from to justify stratospheric multiple.

4/ lack of influence from shareholders ... so for anyone participating in the 25% free float .... who do you think has overall control?

5/ existing shareholders likely to vote for the deal as they got in at a much lower stock price.

6/ compelling reason for IPO is surely for existing shareholders to cash out .... rather than to raise capital?

7/ any controls to stop issuance of more stock for directors ? (Dilution risk)

I’d run a mile from this....

yes...

...but Aston

the stock market has rarely been logical - it is always driven by a range of emotions - all you need is enough people to want to 'own a bit of Aston' and I suspect the initial share offering will be over-subscribed...

would it be 'worth' £5BN - how do you define 'worth'? What is the intrinsic value of a business - the bigger it is and the more international the brand the less the logical link between assets / earnings / value... We live in a world where people are greedy and want lots for no work - on that basis, there will always be people who will buy into a belief that they will make a fortune - and by doing that will probably make someone else's fortune

[hyphen]

Aston Martin CEO is inline for £31.4m payday and 0.6% of the company ,if the IPO goes well. 20% pay rise taking salary to £1.2m, plus a bonus up to twice salary, plus shares...

No wonder he wanted it to float

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/20/as...

Edited by hyphen on Saturday 22 September 00:21

[Cold]

Andy Palmer is also planning a charitable foundation to provide disadvantaged youngsters with apprenticeships.
https://media.astonmartin.com/andy-palmer-plans-ch...

[hyphen]

Cold said:

Andy Palmer is also planning a charitable foundation to provide disadvantaged youngsters with apprenticeships.
https://media.astonmartin.com/andy-palmer-plans-ch...

Fluffy news release as advised by the PR adviser? Sounds as such.

People who are about to get a a big payday are known to anounce a charity with very little details about its financials as a standard PR trick to deflect negative attention from getting loads a money.

Might be kosher, might not be. I would go for the latter myself.

[hyphen]

And so the employees it seems got screwed https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/21/as...

And todays news suggests the valuation may have been massaged by an extraordinary item or two? with the old Vanquish design flogged off for £20m

CEO's freebie stake of 0.6% even at the dropped shareprice is worth £20m+ plus other financial increases, so not all doom and gloom for him!

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 24th October 18:08

[Ginge R]

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

[_Sorted_]

Tragically I can imagine Aston Martin and TVR in administration. Both are relying on new models coming on stream at a time when it is reasonable to assume a recession is incoming or will have arrived.

[tigerkoi]

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

[p1stonhead]

tigerkoi said:

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

I must admit, I sort of expected them to trade a lot off their name alone. It’s been seen through apparently.

[Bonefish Blues]

p1stonhead said:

tigerkoi said:

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

I must admit, I sort of expected them to trade a lot off their name alone. It’s been seen through apparently.

Where does the AM brand sit in the grand scheme though? I'm not convinced it's really all that strong, and certainly not strong enough to indulge in majot brand extension, which would be key to realising significant value.

[p1stonhead]

Bonefish Blues said:

p1stonhead said:

tigerkoi said:

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

I must admit, I sort of expected them to trade a lot off their name alone. It’s been seen through apparently.

Where does the AM brand sit in the grand scheme though? I'm not convinced it's really all that strong, and certainly not strong enough to indulge in majot brand extension, which would be key to realising significant value.

Not sure on an objective measure. But isn’t it always voted coolest brand in the word by various people?

[Bonefish Blues]

p1stonhead said:

Bonefish Blues said:

p1stonhead said:

tigerkoi said:

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

I must admit, I sort of expected them to trade a lot off their name alone. It’s been seen through apparently.

Where does the AM brand sit in the grand scheme though? I'm not convinced it's really all that strong, and certainly not strong enough to indulge in majot brand extension, which would be key to realising significant value.

Not sure on an objective measure. But isn’t it always voted coolest brand in the word by various people?

I've seen that, or a variant thereof, I don't believe it, tbh.

[tigerkoi]

Bonefish Blues said:

p1stonhead said:

Bonefish Blues said:

p1stonhead said:

tigerkoi said:

Ginge R said:

Sharks are circling.

http://www.cityam.com/270636/aston-martin-remains-...

And still it tanks; another 1.1% wiped off today.

I don’t think anyone betted on a market cap valuation at just 2.6bn. These guys were talking of being in the FTSE100!

The whole things smells less of ambition for the brand but rather long term investors wanting some cash out of the business after x years.

With a public listing often comes a helpful financial transparency that helps with further investment. The problem with Aston is people have long been aware of their financial record before IPO. Markets-wise they aren’t Ferrari.

I must admit, I sort of expected them to trade a lot off their name alone. It’s been seen through apparently.

Where does the AM brand sit in the grand scheme though? I'm not convinced it's really all that strong, and certainly not strong enough to indulge in majot brand extension, which would be key to realising significant value.

Not sure on an objective measure. But isn’t it always voted coolest brand in the word by various people?

I've seen that, or a variant thereof, I don't believe it, tbh.

I value the whole “cool brand” votes as I do all those glass awards people like to accumulate in their offices: you know, things like ‘Marketing Team of the Year’ or ‘FX Team of 2008’. Most of the time people write in and plead their case to hopefully get the trinket at a sparsely attended black tie event.

As a kid reading FHM I never could understand how some nomark Neighbours would be “voted” Sexiest Female of whatever year. It’s all a bit of joke really.

Aston Martin always show up on the lists and get recognition by magazines and whatnot, but it’s all marketing and PR teams working on an ‘I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine’ basis.

On the point of AM brand equity....well they’re a minnow really. Obviously well regarded but nothing like in Ferrari’s league. But look across most luxury and retail sectors; often those that don’t sell in big numbers rarely have the big followings that in turn translate to that enlarging brand equity.

Basically the market doesn’t believe that selling near on £200k cars to lots more and more 30y olds is in AMs grasp. Right now. £2bn for a niche luxury brand that sells to a particular demographic - sounds about right.

[Bonefish Blues]

That's rather more eloquent than my post, how can I do anything but agree

[tigerkoi]

Bonefish Blues said:

That's rather more eloquent than my post, how can I do anything but agree

Why, thank you, sir! I do try

[Maldini35]

tigerkoi said:

I value the whole “cool brand” votes as I do all those glass awards people like to accumulate in their offices: you know, things like ‘Marketing Team of the Year’ or ‘FX Team of 2008’. Most of the time people write in and plead their case to hopefully get the trinket at a sparsely attended black tie event.

As a kid reading FHM I never could understand how some nomark Neighbours would be “voted” Sexiest Female of whatever year. It’s all a bit of joke really.

Aston Martin always show up on the lists and get recognition by magazines and whatnot, but it’s all marketing and PR teams working on an ‘I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine’ basis.

On the point of AM brand equity....well they’re a minnow really. Obviously well regarded but nothing like in Ferrari’s league. But look across most luxury and retail sectors; often those that don’t sell in big numbers rarely have the big followings that in turn translate to that enlarging brand equity.

Basically the market doesn’t believe that selling near on £200k cars to lots more and more 30y olds is in AMs grasp. Right now. £2bn for a niche luxury brand that sells to a particular demographic - sounds about right.

Well put.

As regards the ‘cool brands’ nonsense, whilst working with a couple of the Automotive brands I was approached with a view to the company featuring in the top 100 coolest brands (website & book).
I was interested until they mentioned it would only cost £20k.
But surely it was based on some data or a vote?
Nope - just those willing to cough up.

Still, not a bad way to make a quick £2m...

[baconsarney]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

I received same tee shirt (WEC version) from my lady friend on Christmas day... It was a thoughtful present from someone who had no idea I thought people who wore (car) branded clothing looked like knobs... I recall going to the Spring Classic at Duxford in 2011 and seeing the Fezza boys standing round their cars... all wearing prancing horse festooned red shirts and baseball caps... It made me wince.. Now, I know most of us are of the 'don't give a fig what other people think' mentality, but this is kind of the exception to the rule, and a wise man once told me that every rule must have at least one exception... Naturally, I've explained none of this to her. I mean it wouldn't be right. Right?.

Also turned down a test drive in a DB11 and let my daughters boyfriend enjoy the privilege.. for the same reason as tonker Oh, and the fact I haven't got that kind of cash laying around...

[Fittster]

Aston Martin shares plunge after slump in sales across Europe

Aston Martin’s share price plunged more than 20% after the manufacturer revealed a massive slump in sales, with dealers across Europe losing confidence in their ability to sell the luxury carmaker’s vehicles.

The beleaguered company made a surprise announcement to the stock market on Wednesday revealing a 22% drop in sales to UK car dealers in the second quarter, and a 28% slump across the rest of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Shares fell 23% to £8 after the company said the car market had worsened since May amid deepening “macroeconomic uncertainties”. Aston Martin’s market value has more than halved to £1.8bn since it floated on the London Stock Exchange in October, with shares initially priced at £19.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/24/a...

[Maldini35]

I genuinely feel for all the hard working employees who spent their own money to support the brand (and hopefully make a few quid).

Hopefully they’ll bounce back.

Out of interest do they still have the live share price on a screen at Aston’s entrance?
I’m guessing it might have been quietly switched off...

[p1stonhead]

Fittster said:

Aston Martin shares plunge after slump in sales across Europe

Aston Martin’s share price plunged more than 20% after the manufacturer revealed a massive slump in sales, with dealers across Europe losing confidence in their ability to sell the luxury carmaker’s vehicles.

The beleaguered company made a surprise announcement to the stock market on Wednesday revealing a 22% drop in sales to UK car dealers in the second quarter, and a 28% slump across the rest of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

Shares fell 23% to £8 after the company said the car market had worsened since May amid deepening “macroeconomic uncertainties”. Aston Martin’s market value has more than halved to £1.8bn since it floated on the London Stock Exchange in October, with shares initially priced at £19.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/24/a...

Im staggered that Aston can only be worth £1.8b to be honest. Just doesn’t seem right despite it being so.