RE: Could you buy a BMW i3?

[Wills2]

DonkeyApple said:

Wills2 said:

DonkeyApple said:

BIK in 2015/16
In 2015/16 it is bad news for electric car drivers as the zero per cent rate for zero emissions cars will be scrapped and all electric cars will have to pay nine per cent rates instead.

This is the thing, as they get more popular they will tax them.

For sure. But an EV will be cheaper to build as well as run in the not too distant future as they are mechanically more simple etc.

So, obviously as EVs trend towards vanilla so the grants will fall away and the taxes rise but other costs will fall.

The tax and subsidy situations are always going to be short term. They only exist to facilitate early adoption. They must be removed in due course to allow the business to stand on its own merits.

Perversely, this car could be the social break out that brings the tax breaks to an end. We can only hope.

Indeed, the tax breaks will end when the volume rises, you could say the early adopters are getting an "inconvenience" tax break.

Costs will fall but the profit will not and they will sell them for the maximum price the market can sustain.

I remember talking to a senior exec of a power generating business 12 months ago and I asked him when we could expect brown outs, he said within 5 years without radical change.(not that I move in such circles just a mate of a mate)

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

[kambites]

Wills2 said:

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

By charging most of them off-peak. Assuming almost all are charged at night, we'd need something like half of the cars in the UK to be electric before they had a significant effect on peak grid load, and that's highly unlikely to happen in the next five years or even the next 30.

[Wills2]

kambites said:

Wills2 said:

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

By charging most of them off-peak. Assuming almost all are charged at night, we'd need something like half of the cars in the UK to be electric before they had a significant effect on peak grid load, and that's highly unlikely to happen in the next five years or even the next 30.

Interesting info, source and data on the power it would take to charge 10 million cars a night?

[SystemParanoia]

Wills2 said:

kambites said:

Wills2 said:

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

By charging most of them off-peak. Assuming almost all are charged at night, we'd need something like half of the cars in the UK to be electric before they had a significant effect on peak grid load, and that's highly unlikely to happen in the next five years or even the next 30.

Interesting info, source and data on the power it would take to charge 10 million cars a night?

some will have the 30min chargers, and some wont.

ontop of that.. the entire country doesnt work 9-5

most are on rolling shifts, unsociable hours and or part time / flex time etc..

so no.. there wont be 10million cars all trying to do a 30min charge at 5:15pm every day

[McWigglebum4th]

SystemParanoia said:

Wills2 said:

kambites said:

Wills2 said:

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

By charging most of them off-peak. Assuming almost all are charged at night, we'd need something like half of the cars in the UK to be electric before they had a significant effect on peak grid load, and that's highly unlikely to happen in the next five years or even the next 30.

Interesting info, source and data on the power it would take to charge 10 million cars a night?

some will have the 30min chargers, and some wont.

ontop of that.. the entire country doesnt work 9-5

most are on rolling shifts, unsociable hours and or part time / flex time etc..

so no.. there wont be 10million cars all trying to do a 30min charge at 5:15pm every day

Also it won't be a full recharge for all cars as I know it's hard to believe but some people have commutes under 100 miles a day.

[kambites]

Wills2 said:

Interesting info, source and data on the power it would take to charge 10 million cars a night?

Pretty simple to work out. Average car covers 10k miles a year; that's 27 miles a day (probably a huge overestimate in this case because the first people to go electric will be the lower-mileage users, but we'll use it for now) which is under 10kwh on average. So 10m cars would be less than 100 million kwh per day. The grid current usage is about 0.5 Twh per day, so that would be under a 1/5th increase in actual electricity usage in the UK. Average night time grid loading is something like half average day-time grid loading.

I've been massively pessimistic with those figures, too. It's probably getting on for an order of magnitude better than that.

Edited by kambites on Wednesday 31st July 22:34

[danp]

JP78 said:

Quoted by who?

CAP..article on autocar.

[HTP99]

SystemParanoia said:

but on another point.. what happens in someone buys a Twizzy / Zoe / Fluence on the used market, and then refuses to sign the battery lease agreement ?

they own the car, but not the lease?

They will have an expensive and useless lump of metal, plastic and glass sitting outside their house with no power source.

Edited by HTP99 on Wednesday 31st July 23:12

[Amateurish]

Wills2 said:

DonkeyApple said:

BIK in 2015/16
In 2015/16 it is bad news for electric car drivers as the zero per cent rate for zero emissions cars will be scrapped and all electric cars will have to pay nine per cent rates instead.

This is the thing, as they get more popular they will tax them.

It will be 5% BIK still very cheap.

[Wills2]

Amateurish said:

Wills2 said:

DonkeyApple said:

BIK in 2015/16
In 2015/16 it is bad news for electric car drivers as the zero per cent rate for zero emissions cars will be scrapped and all electric cars will have to pay nine per cent rates instead.

This is the thing, as they get more popular they will tax them.

It will be 5% BIK still very cheap.

That's not at issue.

[DonkeyApple]

McWigglebum4th said:

SystemParanoia said:

Wills2 said:

kambites said:

Wills2 said:

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

By charging most of them off-peak. Assuming almost all are charged at night, we'd need something like half of the cars in the UK to be electric before they had a significant effect on peak grid load, and that's highly unlikely to happen in the next five years or even the next 30.

Interesting info, source and data on the power it would take to charge 10 million cars a night?

some will have the 30min chargers, and some wont.

ontop of that.. the entire country doesnt work 9-5

most are on rolling shifts, unsociable hours and or part time / flex time etc..

so no.. there wont be 10million cars all trying to do a 30min charge at 5:15pm every day

Also it won't be a full recharge for all cars as I know it's hard to believe but some people have commutes under 100 miles a day.

Or just charge up on a Saturday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23526389

More importantly, on the matter of 'brown outs' once these start then this will be when Russia exacts its toll for the oil and has we import through the Caucasus. There won't be much petrol at the pumps when that happens.

[oilspill]

pagani1 said:

what else can we improve to assist in a better life? Re-invent freight transport to go by rail and then local distribution, so we need to re-think railways too and build lines that Beeching shut because he could not predict the future. Then get rid of school run traffic or make it bus only and that prevents a lot of local congestion. Finally all new EV's should have to pass a beauty contest before being built, mind you most cars could do with that as they now are all too similar. Sorry about the ramble.

Eating insects for our protein. If we cut down on methane from cattle it'll probably counter having Jeremy Clarkson for transport minister.
Then tackle the fact there are too many humans anyway and still rapidly increasing.

[DonkeyApple]

oilspill said:

Eating insects for our protein. If we cut down on methane from cattle it'll probably counter having Jeremy Clarkson for transport minister.
Then tackle the fact there are too many humans anyway and still rapidly increasing.

Don't panic. Global warming will open up the highly fertile permafrost areas for wheat production and human expansion.

However, if we get global cooling then all of us in Europe, North America and Russia will have to execute everyone in Africa and move there.

[TransverseTight]

SystemParanoia said:

some will have the 30min chargers, and some wont.

ontop of that.. the entire country doesnt work 9-5

most are on rolling shifts, unsociable hours and or part time / flex time etc..

so no.. there wont be 10million cars all trying to do a 30min charge at 5:15pm every day

Check the national grid site and look at the demand swings. Night time use is half the day. Which means we have loads of generating assests sat around doing nothing.

In CO2 terms... theres about 20% less emissions from burning coal to make electricity to charge an EV. plus the powerstation has scrubbers to remove other nasties. Thinking to the future powerstations may get CO2 sequestration facilities... but cars will never.

[Munich]

Short answer - yes.

Battery power in itself isn't a problem. The low range is also not much of a problem for the daily commute. In actual fact, the low range isn't a problem at all. After all, a Mitsubishi EVO (V through to VIII, for example) doesn't have much of a range on one tank of fuel and I doubt this was ever a reason my people didn't buy it. The issue is that it takes hours to charge up again once the battery is empty. If someone could find a way of charging a battery as quickly and conveniently as it takes to re-tank a conventionally fueled car, then battery cars would take off.

I calculated, based on German prices, that I would save ca. 2,000€ per year if I was to use a battery car (based on using a car requiring 8l/100km of petrol and covering 20,000km per year). That is before taking road tax costs into account. 2,000€ of post-tax income is not to be sniffed at – it could fund a big chunk of the yearly costs of a weekend car.

[oilspill]

Munich said:

Short answer - yes.

Battery power in itself isn't a problem. The low range is also not much of a problem for the daily commute. In actual fact, the low range isn't a problem at all. After all, a Mitsubishi EVO (V through to VIII, for example) doesn't have much of a range on one tank of fuel and I doubt this was ever a reason my people didn't buy it. The issue is that it takes hours to charge up again once the battery is empty. If someone could find a way of charging a battery as quickly and conveniently as it takes to re-tank a conventionally fueled car, then battery cars would take off.

I calculated, based on German prices, that I would save ca. 2,000€ per year if I was to use a battery car (based on using a car requiring 8l/100km of petrol and covering 20,000km per year). That is before taking road tax costs into account. 2,000€ of post-tax income is not to be sniffed at – it could fund a big chunk of the yearly costs of a weekend car.

I think the new electric single seater racers will have quick change batteries. Clever design could see a saloon car with an on-board hydraulic system that lowers and pulls up a new battery pack.
Expense of the batteries is the biggest factor at the moment.
Theres a good DIY scene on electric conversions and much discussion is about battery prices and reliability of the cheap solutions.
The Italian city smog scheme that caused some people to buy 2 cars to use on alternate days, goes to show people are prepared to pay a price for freedom of personal transport.

[oilspill]

McWigglebum4th said:

Lets ignore the CO2 bullst as frankly i don't care



How long does your car spend parked?

Mine is parked 23 hours a day

I fail to see the problem in normal use and I know this is hard to accept but normal use of a car is within 40 miles of home on little farty runs to the shops etc.




As to flawed technolgy are you trying to say the fossil fueled cars are flawless?

Do you consider the fact they need taking to selected sites to refuel is an advantage?
Do you think that pissing 70% of the energy you put into you car out as waste heat if excellent?
Is the need to have loads of complicated systems to stop them pumping posionious crap into the air is good engineering?


EVs are not "the answer" in exactly the same way that V12 sportscars are not the answer. They are part of a bigger picture


If you want to look at CO2 bullst then was your car organically grown?

You've completely ignored noise pollution, which is hammering motorsports in some areas.
The switch from 2-stroke MX bikes to 4-stroke has made the sport more expensive. Zero has a road legal MX bike with removable battery that should have lower maintenance costs and can be ridden were ICE engined vehicles are no longer tolerated. Which could be our neighbourhoods in the not too distant future.

[TransverseTight]

oilspill said:

I think the new electric single seater racers will have quick change batteries. Clever design could see a saloon car with an on-board hydraulic system that lowers and pulls up a new battery pack.
Expense of the batteries is the biggest factor at the moment.
Theres a good DIY scene on electric conversions and much discussion is about battery prices and reliability of the cheap solutions.
The Italian city smog scheme that caused some people to buy 2 cars to use on alternate days, goes to show people are prepared to pay a price for freedom of personal transport.

Ta da! You were right ...

http://www.betterplace.com/How-it-Works/battery-sw...

A few countries have already signed up to work with Project Better Place, which does just that. Isreal and Sweden are 2 that come to mind. The bloke behind it used to run SAP one of the worlds biggest IT companies. ( I hope he left as for mere mortals their software is over complicated bloatware that even makes accountants in large corporation run out the door screaming ). Lets hope this isn't the same. Watching the video they need to get the F1 teams on it though. It's a bit slow!

Simple idea really - when you do a long journey you pull in and swap the battery at a service station. Lets face it - if you run an Evo or a Lotus Elise stopping for fuel is a common occurance anyway. Especially in the Elise where every 100 miles you need to stop to visit a Chiropractor.

People with diesels are even known to stop occasionally, to eat or use the toilet, or take a nap. Though I doubt they'd let you sit in the car while a swap was taking place due to elf and safe T. Remember the Hindenburg ;-)

Back to numbers… this is a site with data fed in from National Grid. I used it to argue with a local councillor in our local rag about the viability of wind when used in conjunction with CCGTs due to slew rates (er, I digress)...

http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm

2 things obvious from those graphs…

Weekends we have much lower peak demand. A new tariff could be designed for low mileage EV car users.
Weekday overnight demand of 25,000MW is just over half the day time usage of 39,000MW. Economy 7 should already cover this.

Powerstations don’t like starting up and shutting down – there’s a large cost involved due to having to warm up, and reach generating speed – all while not selling any power. CCGTs have been built to capitalise on this.. some have even been converted from base load turbines to peak load. Spot prices in peaking situations can be so high that a CCGT can be run a couple of hours a day and make more profit than one running 24x7!

Winter usage is higher – peaking around 55,000MW. There a slight issue here in that total available capacity is 80,000MW so if 4 million people went home plugging their cars to fast charge in at 5pm in the winter – time of maximum demand.

Will we see domestic electric contracts which state “If you have an EV you must disclose this to us and we will fit a separate interruptible power supply (and tax you on it too)”?. Or maybe a new EV tariff… Day time rate normal – but night time and weekend rates similar to or lower than Economy 7. Why would you pay £2.50 for a recharge when you could pay £0.64p. Yep – 64p to do 100 miles. It may sound crazy but even rich people don't like wasting money. The i3 is goiunf to cost about the same as a midrange 3 series. But will have vastly reduced running costs. Surely that's what's known as a market shaker?

There have been discussion of using parked EVs to actually export electric to the grid in peak times. Ie. you can sell it back at more than you bought it. Theoretically you could do that [illegally] now if you have a PV system linked to the grid and connected up your car – though it would be a bit suspicious if you did it at 7pm in December ;-) A lot of this depends on the introduction of Smart meters, and the associated standards, which would allow you to log in to the website and say “I need to use my on Tuesday at 7pm (to get to footy practive 10 miles away) – don’t export any power. But once I get home at 9pm take all you need – but make sure it’s topped up to full by 6:30 am”. Pretty much what I do now with my Android phone and the Tivo Box. I’m a big fan of using currently tech in new ways – not waiting around for some new thing that’s vapour ware!

Making cars electric doesn’t solve the number 1 problem though. Traffic! They should be more expensive and petrol should be banned, so that only rich people like me can afford them, and everyone else can catch the train/bus. In fact they should have an EV lane on all motorways – in which driving at 70+ mph is compulsory, as long as you’ve done your advanced driver test and paid the annual High speed license fee including a medical and reaction speed test of £1000.

If they did put the EV lane in – they could later upgrade it to have a slot in the road – to act as an electric pickup and steer the car whilst you take a snooze. You would have no understeer and could probably take corners at 200mph ;-) However this idea isn’t established tech (unless you want to drive a car 6 inches long). Still wouldn’t it be better to spend £30 billion doing this on the M1 instead of HS2 which is only useful if you live in a flat Birmingham City centre and want to get to within 1 mile of Euston!? All this nonsense about slashing journey times by 1/2 ignores the fact you still need to get to and from the main stations either end. Did it for a year and it doesn't take 1h25 its more like 3 hours. So HS2 will reduce that to 2h30.

In conclusion yes - I'd by an i3 to avoid using the train and be smug that my car cost less, and the journey is costing less than the bloke sat next to me in an M3 going the same speed, but is still a "special" BMW.

[Parax]

Wills2 said:

I remember talking to a senior exec of a power generating business 12 months ago and I asked him when we could expect brown outs, he said within 5 years without radical change.(not that I move in such circles just a mate of a mate)

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

Perhaps a mate of a mate could have shown you this: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Re...

Brown outs are likely at peak demand ie daytime. Car charging is usually overnight. At present our grid under utilised at night (those drops in the graph!) and could easily sustain 10GW of EV charging (that's 2 million cars at 5kw avg).

[DonkeyApple]

Parax said:

Wills2 said:

I remember talking to a senior exec of a power generating business 12 months ago and I asked him when we could expect brown outs, he said within 5 years without radical change.(not that I move in such circles just a mate of a mate)

So I wonder how we will sustain these vehicles en masse

Perhaps a mate of a mate could have shown you this: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Re...

Brown outs are likely at peak demand ie daytime. Car charging is usually overnight. At present our grid under utilised at night (those drops in the graph!) and could easily sustain 10GW of EV charging (that's 2 million cars at 5kw avg).

With the car then supplying back into the home during the day in the event of a peak cut.

Also, people should think about what is going to happen to the amount of fuel available at forecourts if we go through a prolonged period of peak electricity shortage.