Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

[So]

nickfrog said:

volvos60s60 said:

Fast forward 3 months & repeat these words to yourself

What? Forever?

For some on PH, yes. Cars will never be cheap enough, they won't buy, prices will increase again and they'll be saying "ah no, they'll drop again soon and I'll buy then". Rinse and repeat.

[volvos60s60]

nickfrog said:

volvos60s60 said:

Fast forward 3 months & repeat these words to yourself

What? Forever?

At least until early winter

[av185]

So said:

nickfrog said:

volvos60s60 said:

Fast forward 3 months & repeat these words to yourself

What? Forever?

For some on PH, yes. Cars will never be cheap enough, they won't buy, prices will increase again and they'll be saying "ah no, they'll drop again soon and I'll buy then". Rinse and repeat.

Haha very true.

[anonymous-user]

niggtv said:

Perhaps I misinterpreted, but then why were you saying you wouldn't feel the need to change if you lived in "France or somewhere else"? What's the pressure you feel in the UK?

The UK is absolutely car obsessed, both from the point of view of wanting something nice to drive, and the whole 'Keeping up with the neighbours' thing that we seem to have.

In countries like France/Spain/Italy etc, they have absolutely no desire to spend money they haven't got, financing a car they do not need, just to impress their friends.

You will tend to find most families driving round in much older and cheaper cars. It's one of the reason Dacia have do so incredibly well in places like France. The French, for the most part, just want inexpensive transport.

I think it would be massively refreshing to live in a society where there was almost no pressure to finance yourself to the hilt just to pay for your family cars.

[Rke82]

jack_86 said:

I love how Sytner now have a buy online feature on some of their site. I’m sure they would love some fool to sign up to a pcp deal on a used car at 10.9% APR!!

They can’t be really expecting any one to actually be buying at those rates

I’ll put my hands up , I’m a fool !! I did sign up to their extortionate rate but only to get the £2000 contribution they were offering only with that rate , with all intentions of paying off in full within a week. I’ve since pulled out of the deal to see what happens with prices in the future.

[sat1983]

Lord Marylebone said:

In countries like France/Spain/Italy etc, they have absolutely no desire to spend money they haven't got, financing a car they do not need, just to impress their friends.

That's simply not true- as I said before, yes the UK and Germany do like the flashy cars more than their European neighbours but attitudes have changed a lot and the younger generation likes the posh stuff too...

Whether Covid will help change attitudes remains to be seen.

[CRA1G]

So said:

nickfrog said:

volvos60s60 said:

Fast forward 3 months & repeat these words to yourself

What? Forever?

For some on PH, yes. Cars will never be cheap enough, they won't buy, prices will increase again and they'll be saying "ah no, they'll drop again soon and I'll buy then". Rinse and repeat.

With some of these very knowledgeable forecasts may be someone can forecast when we will have the next pandemic.....?

[kdsl]

Lord Marylebone said:

This post is probably one of the more important points that has been made in this thread.

1/3rd of all families in the UK are one, just one months salary away from going bankrupt. Just think about that and the massive implications.

This country contains vast swathes of people who have two premium brand cars on the drive at £300-500 a month each, plus £1500 a month mortgage for their new Taylor-Wimpey or Persimmon house, a new TV and Sofa at £100 a month, whilst putting holidays on their credit cards.

They are just scraping together enough each month to pay for it all, but they insist on having it all, because everyone else has it.

Our entire semi-skilled/middle-class/suburban/professional/young professional demographic is a massive pack of cards, ready to come crashing down at the slightest wobble.

It isn't the sub £5k car buyers and sellers we need to worry about. Their lifestyles are relatively inexpensive, and they are usually funded and housed by the government.

Neither do we need to worry about the 1%, who can sit and admire their car collection in their 12 car garage while the country goes to st.

But we should all be very worried about what happens if the enormous 'middle income' portion of our population suddenly can't pay their bills for even just one or two months.

Quite possibly one of the best comments so far sir.

[hungry_hog]

North West London is literally the opposite of the French approach discussed above.

At the local gym (obviously closed for time being) it is more like a supercar showroom, members are either financed to the gills, huge family wealth, or working for prop hedge funds, but I cannot imagine the tattoo / steroid brigade sitting there coding C++.

60+: old S classe / old Bentley
40 - 60 yo: Bentley / Ferrari / McLaren
30 - 40 yo: 911 / AMG GT
20 - 30 yo: Cayman / M3 / C63
18 - 20 yo: A45 / M135i

Disclaimer: Have financed silly toys in my 30s and lost plenty of cash myself

[anonymous-user]

Lord Marylebone said:

I think it would be massively refreshing to live in a society where there was almost no pressure to finance yourself to the hilt just to pay for your family cars.

I've never felt that pressure, I've always based what I bought on what I wanted and what I could afford.

I've owned high performance cars since my teans, i was rallying my own car at 21 and have been active in motorsport for over 30 years, so excess cash spunked on an ornament to keep up with the Jones's has never been a thought.

[rider73]

kdsl said:

Lord Marylebone said:

This post is probably one of the more important points that has been made in this thread.

1/3rd of all families in the UK are one, just one months salary away from going bankrupt. Just think about that and the massive implications.

This country contains vast swathes of people who have two premium brand cars on the drive at £300-500 a month each, plus £1500 a month mortgage for their new Taylor-Wimpey or Persimmon house, a new TV and Sofa at £100 a month, whilst putting holidays on their credit cards.

They are just scraping together enough each month to pay for it all, but they insist on having it all, because everyone else has it.

Our entire semi-skilled/middle-class/suburban/professional/young professional demographic is a massive pack of cards, ready to come crashing down at the slightest wobble.

It isn't the sub £5k car buyers and sellers we need to worry about. Their lifestyles are relatively inexpensive, and they are usually funded and housed by the government.

Neither do we need to worry about the 1%, who can sit and admire their car collection in their 12 car garage while the country goes to st.

But we should all be very worried about what happens if the enormous 'middle income' portion of our population suddenly can't pay their bills for even just one or two months.

Quite possibly one of the best comments so far sir.

agreed - the furlough scheme should mitigate this a little.....but is this "middle income" borrow and spend attitude going to change post COVID world, will people think they need to keep a healthy reserve of 5/6 months salary in the bank.......will businesses too? perhaps, perhaps not.... my feeling is we have not seen the last of these pandemics as the world becomes forever joined together, but i cannot see the Governments around the world constantly ploughing cash in, to bail out economies based on borrow and spend (of companies and individuals) because at the end of the day it will all have to be paid back, by the public.

[anonymous-user]

rider73 said:

agreed - the furlough scheme should mitigate this a little.....but is this "middle income" borrow and spend attitude going to change post COVID world, will people think they need to keep a healthy reserve of 5/6 months salary in the bank.......will businesses too? perhaps, perhaps not.... my feeling is we have not seen the last of these pandemics as the world becomes forever joined together, but i cannot see the Governments around the world constantly ploughing cash in, to bail out economies based on borrow and spend (of companies and individuals) because at the end of the day it will all have to be paid back, by the public.

We have had much higher gdp/debt ratios before.

[Plate spinner]

jsf said:

Lord Marylebone said:

I think it would be massively refreshing to live in a society where there was almost no pressure to finance yourself to the hilt just to pay for your family cars.

I've never felt that pressure, I've always based what I bought on what I wanted and what I could afford.

I've owned high performance cars since my teans, i was rallying my own car at 21 and have been active in motorsport for over 30 years, so excess cash spunked on an ornament to keep up with the Jones's has never been a thought.

Likewise, just never felt that society peer pressure. It just seems a bit odd and dare I say it ‘weak minded’. It’s my life, I’ll live it on my terms thanks very much.

I always liked the maxim ‘those that matter don’t care those that care don’t matter’.

[Saweep]

hungry_hog said:

North West London is literally the opposite of the French approach discussed above.

At the local gym (obviously closed for time being) it is more like a supercar showroom, members are either financed to the gills, huge family wealth, or working for prop hedge funds, but I cannot imagine the tattoo / steroid brigade sitting there coding C++.

60+: old S classe / old Bentley
40 - 60 yo: Bentley / Ferrari / McLaren
30 - 40 yo: 911 / AMG GT
20 - 30 yo: Cayman / M3 / C63
18 - 20 yo: A45 / M135i

Disclaimer: Have financed silly toys in my 30s and lost plenty of cash myself

Just one little point.

Middle to high London wages provide significantly higher purchasing power than middle to high elsewhere in the country...car prices don't change depending on where in the Uk you live.

People also don't seem to realise the incredible amounts of wealth knocking about in this country.

[ChocolateFrog]

Plate spinner said:

jsf said:

Lord Marylebone said:

I think it would be massively refreshing to live in a society where there was almost no pressure to finance yourself to the hilt just to pay for your family cars.

I've never felt that pressure, I've always based what I bought on what I wanted and what I could afford.

I've owned high performance cars since my teans, i was rallying my own car at 21 and have been active in motorsport for over 30 years, so excess cash spunked on an ornament to keep up with the Jones's has never been a thought.

Likewise, just never felt that society peer pressure. It just seems a bit odd and dare I say it ‘weak minded’. It’s my life, I’ll live it on my terms thanks very much.

I always liked the maxim ‘those that matter don’t care those that care don’t matter’.

I've always had older and more interesting cars.

When people say keeping up with the Jones's they invariably mean something like a white Audi A4 often in poverty spec but it's ok because it has a new plate on it.

I'd rather walk.

[tinyboytim]

Saweep said:

Just one little point.

People also don't seem to realise the incredible amounts of debt knocking about in this country.

[Saweep]

tinyboytim said:

Saweep said:

Just one little point.

People also don't seem to realise the incredible amounts of debt knocking about in this country.

That too. But I suspect that most of the guys at the gym mentioned with their "financed supercars" aren't on £25k or the dole.

This hatred of people having more money than oneself is such a peculiar, horrid British disease.

[Earthdweller]

Saweep said:

That too. But I suspect that most of the guys at the gym mentioned with their "financed supercars" aren't on £25k or the dole.

This hatred of people having more money than oneself is such a peculiar, horrid British disease.

You are right .. they won’t be

However they ARE likely to be living to their means and as likely to have very little backup behind it as someone driving an A3 on finance who’s on £25k

It’s all relative .. they are most likely just higher up the deck of cards and equally at risk of it collapses

It’s a reflection of our “instant” society

[Saweep]

Earthdweller said:

Saweep said:

That too. But I suspect that most of the guys at the gym mentioned with their "financed supercars" aren't on £25k or the dole.

This hatred of people having more money than oneself is such a peculiar, horrid British disease.

You are right .. they won’t be

However they ARE likely to be living to their means and as likely to have very little backup behind it as someone driving an A3 on finance who’s on £25k

It’s all relative .. they are most likely just higher up the deck of cards and equally at risk of it collapses

It’s a reflection of our “instant” society

How can you say that for certain, though?

Despite what every man and his dog thinks, it's not actually that easy to get finance for 100k+ cars. There are lots of additional checks and info needed that you just don't get at the lower level.

If you walk into BMW they will just credit check you for your 80k X5.

Ferrari finance want to know your children's inside leg measurements, tax returns, bank statements, accountants letters etc. It's a whole different ball game. Even with very high deposits.

[gizlaroc]

rider73 said:

agreed - the furlough scheme should mitigate this a little.....but is this "middle income" borrow and spend attitude going to change post COVID world, will people think they need to keep a healthy reserve of 5/6 months salary in the bank.......will businesses too? perhaps, perhaps not.... my feeling is we have not seen the last of these pandemics as the world becomes forever joined together, but i cannot see the Governments around the world constantly ploughing cash in, to bail out economies based on borrow and spend (of companies and individuals) because at the end of the day it will all have to be paid back, by the public.

A huge majority of businesses since 2009 have not been able to keep any money back for a rainy day.

The reality is those who survived 2009 were only just getting to the point where the debt was paid off, those who started since then have been paying far too expensive rents and rates that just are not sustainable, and we tend to end up paying corporation tax on profits you never realise anyway. Profits for many businesses are sat in stock, more often than not that stock is sitting there as customers don't want it.

Retailers, car dealers included and hospitality are in trouble, and so, so, so many industries are there to service those industries, be it I.T, insurance, construction, media, marketing, recruitment, card merchants blah blah blah.


The furlough scheme is there to try and stop people panicking while we are in lockdown, keep peoples wages paid and there won't be panic and civil unrest.

As said above, many people would have run out of money by now, many would have already defaulted on their car, their house by now and have no way of paying for food let alone a home. The furlough scheme was essential, but people need to get real about what is going to happen in a few weeks, it is going to be pretty horrific. I hope those who are sat at home now are being careful with their money, just buying basic food and not wasting it on ordering tut online, because I think millions will be shocked what happens when lockdown ends.

I'm in a WhatsApp group with other retailers and some of the industries that service retail, the one thing that everyone is saying is reducing overheads. Opening for shorter hours is one thing many, myself included, are considering, maybe 10.30-4.30pm instead of 9am-5.30pm, that would save a huge amount in wages, we do around 95% of turnover in that 70% time window, so makes sense. Also means our electricity bill should drop from £600 a month to maybe £450 a month.
Then we will be looking at reducing health insurance, keyman insurance, that will save us £5000 a year.
Also get rid of the EPOS system which saves us time taking stock of what has sold on a Monday morning, but can be done manually in an hour or so, but still, £3500 a year saved. Web site has already been moved back from many from using a firm to look after it to being done in house, that can sabe another £5000 a year.

Payroll and weekly book keeping we will start doing again in house, that will save me £2500 a year.

I reckon I will be cutting back around £15,000 worth of outgoings when we reopen. But that is £15000 of lost to other businesses, I am one small retailer, speaking to some of the big boys, they reckon they can get their overheads down by millions each year.

Wages will be down for many too, as companies try to survive you may see a lot of staff on reduced hours.
I think many would rather stay in their job and be on 80% and maybe do 10.30-4.30 each day, in fact, I think many might actually like the idea. Can they afford to do that? Yeah, get rid of the expensive metal on finance and it won't be an issue, plus a better work/life balance.


I guess it also depends on what needs to be done to pay this back too?
I can see basic rate tax jump to 25% and high rate jump from 40 to 50%, that may hurt many and not allow any money to be saved.


It will be an interesting 24-36 months coming out of this that is for sure.