Petrol prices- when does the madness end?

[DonkeyApple]

Mr Spoon said:

That is quite a naive statement to make. Platts is just one method of pricing. Force Majeure can be triggered with any shift like that, causing price rises

It depends what you did in the industry, but I've been buying tens of millions in distribution fuel for quite some time. Let me make this statement again. The government can remove all the fuel duty and it doesn't mean prices will fall. There might be some media led attacks for this to happen, but fuel is like houses. Once the industry can see that the common public are paying these prices, there is no incentive whatsoever for any reduction.

Think SDLT removal. All of a sudden, everything was SDLT more expensive.

That would require a sellers cartel. You can see the reasoning just by looking at low fuel tax markets with comparable GDP per capita.

[TyrannosauRoss Lex]

DonkeyApple said:

okgo said:

As also said pages and pages ago. For most people despite these HUGE percentage jumps, it really isn't that much money being talked about unless you're doing a lot of miles.

That's the key. Post 2010 saw a monumental shift to more efficient cars. Since then car usuale has been falling. Add in just how much car usage is non essential and can be easily cut and finally the sheer numbers now doing WFH 1.2 even 5 days a week and you start to see why average motorway speeds don't appear to have changed at all or why there is any great need for the Govt to give anything to drivers in the face of genuine issues such as rent increases, basic food costs and the looming and rather potent heating costs. If one has limits as to which areas to financially support then private motorists are pretty much not on any core list of priorities.

If one looks at this from the perspective of average daily miles covered by car in the U.K. then paying 40p/litre more than pre lockdown equates to pennies and easily absorbed through a simple change of habits.

In terms of personal transport and with the exception of some genuine outliers, it's a genuine non issue in contrast to other matters.

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

[kingston12]

okgo said:

As also said pages and pages ago. For most people despite these HUGE percentage jumps, it really isn't that much money being talked about unless you're doing a lot of miles.

That's the position I'm in. A full tank has gone up from £80 to £120, but low use means that the extra cost to me is less than £300 a year. It's a pain, but certainly not worth changing an otherwise good car for.

If I was putting in a tank a week, I might start to think about it...

[Jawls]

Mr Spoon said:

That is quite a naive statement to make. Platts is just one method of pricing. Force Majeure can be triggered with any shift like that, causing price rises

It depends what you did in the industry, but I've been buying tens of millions in distribution fuel for quite some time. Let me make this statement again. The government can remove all the fuel duty and it doesn't mean prices will fall. There might be some media led attacks for this to happen, but fuel is like houses. Once the industry can see that the common public are paying these prices, there is no incentive whatsoever for any reduction.

Think SDLT removal. All of a sudden, everything was SDLT more expensive.

You can’t FM to change a pricing basis, you’d be laughed out of town if the party you were declaring FM to had a competent legal team. FM’s are for things like “my crude distiller has blown up, no product for you”. Of course, if someone is buying on the spot market than it’s trivial to change premiums and that’s why you want a supply context, but even on spot market duty is called out specifically on the price notifications.

I worked for a large refiner, but would prefer to leave out details of my role.

Yes, I agree it is possible for duty to go down and price to go up (though with a big duty move, it’d be hard to fully counteract it). But that any such move would be caused by wholesale cost input changes and/or local competitive environment.

Totally disagree it’s like houses. Fuel can and does fall in price significantly. The wholesalers often have v little connection to the common punter filling his car up and there are too many intermediaries.

Edited by Jawls on Thursday 23 June 14:11

[Smiljan]

DonkeyApple said:

I always kept a healthy float with the utility company. I had around £2.5k sitting with Green Energy Network at the time they went tots up and my account was transferred to EDF. I've been in dispute for 18 months now with regards to the fact that my credit has been pocketed. And in that time EDF have also bumped my DD to £800 twice. Right palaver. Especially as they only employ vegetables on the front line. So while I agree with your tactic, I'm of the view that if you're going to build a credit with a utility, use your water company to hold it.

To be fair though, my only previous issue with a gas supplier when on DD was about twenty years ago when their meter man read the electricity meter and they tried to take me for £5k. It only took two years to force them to pay my current account fines for that one.

Why would you ever deliberately build credit with a utility company?

[Philvrs]

Smiljan said:

Why would you ever deliberately build credit with a utility company?

Apart from recent times, ive never heard of them going bust, so for some people it could be handy to manage money and have one less thing to think about by being in credit.
I dont think that will ever happen again though.

[R56Cooper]

kingston12 said:

okgo said:

As also said pages and pages ago. For most people despite these HUGE percentage jumps, it really isn't that much money being talked about unless you're doing a lot of miles.

That's the position I'm in. A full tank has gone up from £80 to £120, but low use means that the extra cost to me is less than £300 a year. It's a pain, but certainly not worth changing an otherwise good car for.

If I was putting in a tank a week, I might start to think about it...

I agree that it's important to maintain perspective as it's easy to get sucked into the doom narrative.

My commuting fuel bill has gone up about £6 a week.

Fortunately I have the option to work from home two days a week so I could easily cancel that out. Also, it's basically gone up by the price of a pint so the obvious solution is to just cut back in that area. Alternatively, make my own butties instead of paying £4 in the work cafe.

I realise I am in a privileged position however compared to some.

[Smiljan]

Personally I'd rather be a little bit in debt to them at all times and have the surplus in my own savings but they are pretty sneaky in their methods of making sure they have more than you owe them in their accounts.

Multiply this by millions of customers and it must be a nice extra revenue stream for them.

Anyway, back to petrol normal unleaded in my area seems to have stuck at around 1.87/ltr for now. 45p up on the 2013 highs when I ran a much less economical car. That equates to around £25 on a full tank increase over 9 years if you take the glass half full approach. Full tank in the Golf is normally 400+ miles of running about.

[anonymous-user]

Jawls said:

Mr Spoon said:

That is quite a naive statement to make. Platts is just one method of pricing. Force Majeure can be triggered with any shift like that, causing price rises

It depends what you did in the industry, but I've been buying tens of millions in distribution fuel for quite some time. Let me make this statement again. The government can remove all the fuel duty and it doesn't mean prices will fall. There might be some media led attacks for this to happen, but fuel is like houses. Once the industry can see that the common public are paying these prices, there is no incentive whatsoever for any reduction.

Think SDLT removal. All of a sudden, everything was SDLT more expensive.

You can’t FM to change a pricing basis, you’d be laughed out of town if the party you were declaring FM to had a competent legal team. FM’s are for things like “my crude distiller has blown up, no product for you”. Of course, if someone is buying on the spot market than it’s trivial to change premiums and that’s why you want a supply context, but even on spot market duty is called out specifically on the price notifications.

I worked for a large refiner, but would prefer to leave out details of my role.

Yes, I agree it is possible for duty to go down and price to go up (though with a big duty move, it’d be hard to fully counteract it). But that any such move would be caused by wholesale cost input changes and/or local competitive environment.

Totally disagree it’s like houses. Fuel can and does fall in price significantly. The wholesalers often have v little connection to the common punter filling his car up and there are too many intermediaries.

Edited by Jawls on Thursday 23 June 14:11

I don’t think Mr Spoon is really quite as au fait with how things as he likes to think. It is very clear he doesn’t understand how retail fuel is priced. Like you, I’m no longer involved and have no need to go into detail further. I would however say that 10’s of millions is but a splash!

[okgo]

TyrannosauRoss Lex said:

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

I barely do that monthly figure a year. I’d very much say your mate is doing hugely more than most.

A bit like the impact of food prices rising when you have 4 children.

[Ankh87]

okgo said:

TyrannosauRoss Lex said:

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

I barely do that monthly figure a year. I’d very much say your mate is doing hugely more than most.

A bit like the impact of food prices rising when you have 4 children.

How the heck do you do less than that a year? Even if you did 1400 miles a year that works out at 3.83 miles per day. You should be walking that or buy a bicycle for that little.

[bigothunter]

Ankh87 said:

okgo said:

TyrannosauRoss Lex said:

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

I barely do that monthly figure a year. I’d very much say your mate is doing hugely more than most.

A bit like the impact of food prices rising when you have 4 children.

How the heck do you do less than that a year? Even if you did 1400 miles a year that works out at 3.83 miles per day. You should be walking that or buy a bicycle for that little.

I drove 2070 miles per month commuting to work. But not anymore because I've retired. A good economic decision.

I know several who commuted considerably further.

[GhostWKD]

200.9 for super unleaded at tesco last night

Filled up at the rearmost pump, filled in my max 99 limit and then pulled forward to the next pump and put another 30 odd in... good thing I had 1/3 of a tank left when I decided to fill up!

[DonkeyApple]

TyrannosauRoss Lex said:

DonkeyApple said:

okgo said:

As also said pages and pages ago. For most people despite these HUGE percentage jumps, it really isn't that much money being talked about unless you're doing a lot of miles.

That's the key. Post 2010 saw a monumental shift to more efficient cars. Since then car usuale has been falling. Add in just how much car usage is non essential and can be easily cut and finally the sheer numbers now doing WFH 1.2 even 5 days a week and you start to see why average motorway speeds don't appear to have changed at all or why there is any great need for the Govt to give anything to drivers in the face of genuine issues such as rent increases, basic food costs and the looming and rather potent heating costs. If one has limits as to which areas to financially support then private motorists are pretty much not on any core list of priorities.

If one looks at this from the perspective of average daily miles covered by car in the U.K. then paying 40p/litre more than pre lockdown equates to pennies and easily absorbed through a simple change of habits.

In terms of personal transport and with the exception of some genuine outliers, it's a genuine non issue in contrast to other matters.

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

Indeed it would be on a low salary but the point is that not every car user is in a low salary, not every car user is doing above average mileage and nearly all car users have elasticity in their usage etc. some people won't have opted for the most frugal vehicle and that is no one's particular issue bar the person who made that choice. And then one has to consider that a lot of the higher mileage drivers have allowances etc, this is why, of all the current pricing pressures this one is the most benign.

[kingston12]

Ankh87 said:

okgo said:

TyrannosauRoss Lex said:

Friend of mine doing about 1400ish miles per month spending an extra £120/month compared to if fuel was 130p/L. That's significant for a lot of people.

I barely do that monthly figure a year. I’d very much say your mate is doing hugely more than most.

A bit like the impact of food prices rising when you have 4 children.

How the heck do you do less than that a year? Even if you did 1400 miles a year that works out at 3.83 miles per day. You should be walking that or buy a bicycle for that little.

I've never done more than 2,000 miles a year.

I used to get the train into work (WFH now) and virtually everything else is within easy walking distance. Most social meet-ups are either local or on the train into central London. I never go shopping, as have everything delivered now.

The car is used for family visits and occasional longer journeys to more rural areas, but spends a lot of time in my garage...

[okgo]

Basically exactly as above. Apart from I don’t have a garage.

[Gweeds]

I generally drive about 8000 miles a year, but the only drives I have to do are to my weddings (photographer). They're generally within around 50 miles anyway.

I see around 35mpg on average (F30 340i with a 60/40 split motorways/town) and going from 1.70 to 2.00 a litre is around £300 a year. So not really enough to worry about, and certainly not to drop many thousands on an EV.

[Gweeds]

Gweeds said:

I generally drive about 8000 miles a year, but the only drives I have to do are to my weddings (photographer). They're generally within around 50 miles anyway.

I see around 35mpg on average (F30 340i with a 60/40 split motorways/town) and going from 1.70 to 2.00 a litre is around £300 a year. So not really enough to worry about, and certainly not to drop many thousands on an EV.

Home elec/gas, on the other hand will have gone from around £1200 a year to £2850. So that is the far bigger issue.

[Pica-Pica]

Gweeds said:

Gweeds said:

I generally drive about 8000 miles a year, but the only drives I have to do are to my weddings (photographer). They're generally within around 50 miles anyway.

I see around 35mpg on average (F30 340i with a 60/40 split motorways/town) and going from 1.70 to 2.00 a litre is around £300 a year. So not really enough to worry about, and certainly not to drop many thousands on an EV.

Home elec/gas, on the other hand will have gone from around £1200 a year to £2850. So that is the far bigger issue.

Not for me. I fixed mine for 24 months last July until September 2023 start.

[GetCarter]

Gweeds said:

I generally drive about 8000 miles a year, but the only drives I have to do are to my weddings (photographer). They're generally within around 50 miles anyway.

I see around 35mpg on average (F30 340i with a 60/40 split motorways/town) and going from 1.70 to 2.00 a litre is around £300 a year. So not really enough to worry about, and certainly not to drop many thousands on an EV.

Out of interest, you'll be getting 50% .. or even 75% of ALL motoring costs against tax? So an EV will be a shed load cheaper to buy or lease.

I know this as I am in the same position (photography) and have just got an EV and have saved over £500 in fuel costs in the past two months.(I also do 8k a year, but most of my miles are under 30 a day, so my hybrid means I'll only fill with fuel 2 or 3 times a year, so that does mean I'm in a rather unusual position).