ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?
Discussion
ICE cars won’t all be crushed in 2030.
And the rest of the world isn’t ruled by a UK Govt target.
Petrol might take more work to get than it does now, but existing petrol outlets aren’t going to trash all their existing petrol gear. But there may just be one pump and the rest is electrical chargers.
Beyond 2040 who knows. Petrol will still be around but you may end up ordering it on Amazon!
And the rest of the world isn’t ruled by a UK Govt target.
Petrol might take more work to get than it does now, but existing petrol outlets aren’t going to trash all their existing petrol gear. But there may just be one pump and the rest is electrical chargers.
Beyond 2040 who knows. Petrol will still be around but you may end up ordering it on Amazon!
rockin said:
Don't bet on it.
How's a "petrol station" going to be a viable business when a couple of old croakers turn up in their "classics" once a month for 20 litres of unleaded? They need a queue at the pumps and a van-load of builders buying Ginsters pies just to stay afloat.
I think petrol stations are going to become rarer and maybe through a combination of dropping demand for fuel and increasing levy the price will creep up but my feeling is that petrol stations will still be around in their current guise for at least another 20 years. After that they might become thinner on the ground.How's a "petrol station" going to be a viable business when a couple of old croakers turn up in their "classics" once a month for 20 litres of unleaded? They need a queue at the pumps and a van-load of builders buying Ginsters pies just to stay afloat.
My thought is that in 30 years when I still want to run my petrol cars around I might have to buy my own fuel storage tank and order in bulk much in the same way farmers have red diesel tanks and yearly deliveries. Obviously that only works for people that have the money and space such a setup.
There was a good recent(ish) video by Harry's Garage discussing this.
My own thoughts on this are that the Gov will have to backtrack on the 2030 deadline simply due to the availability of Rare Earths for battery production unless we see a major development in technology. Solid state batteries are looking interesting and Toyota have made big announcements recently on this front but I am unsure whether new battery tech requires the same amount of REMs or less?
Looking quickly at the numbers, we have circa 33 million passenger cars on UK roads, albeit not doing the normal amount of miles due to some bug that is apparently going about.
New passenger car registrations were roughly 149k in 2020. Of those, 29k made up of all the PHEV, EV, BEV, HEV, MHEVPetrol and MHEVDiesel meaning we need a monumental shift in technology, charging infrastructure and mindset of the motoring public that imho just isn't going to happen in the next decade hence the necessary backtrack.
At the current rate of new car sales it would take over 200 years to replace ICE with EV completely lol
My own thoughts on this are that the Gov will have to backtrack on the 2030 deadline simply due to the availability of Rare Earths for battery production unless we see a major development in technology. Solid state batteries are looking interesting and Toyota have made big announcements recently on this front but I am unsure whether new battery tech requires the same amount of REMs or less?
Looking quickly at the numbers, we have circa 33 million passenger cars on UK roads, albeit not doing the normal amount of miles due to some bug that is apparently going about.
New passenger car registrations were roughly 149k in 2020. Of those, 29k made up of all the PHEV, EV, BEV, HEV, MHEVPetrol and MHEVDiesel meaning we need a monumental shift in technology, charging infrastructure and mindset of the motoring public that imho just isn't going to happen in the next decade hence the necessary backtrack.
At the current rate of new car sales it would take over 200 years to replace ICE with EV completely lol
Politics Eh !!! We have a vote who knows maybe the reform party will be a proper political force and
As it seems interested in representing normal working people and will the woke lefty snow flake thing still be fashionable?
The other thing is maybe electric or hydrogen cars will better developed and we will have built enough power stations and the changeover will happen naturally
ICE will be hobby cars and a few old stick in the muds
So Why they want to do all the s
tty virtue signaling and make stupid rules for ten years in an unknown future
Isn’t clear ...
As it seems interested in representing normal working people and will the woke lefty snow flake thing still be fashionable?
The other thing is maybe electric or hydrogen cars will better developed and we will have built enough power stations and the changeover will happen naturally
ICE will be hobby cars and a few old stick in the muds
So Why they want to do all the s
tty virtue signaling and make stupid rules for ten years in an unknown future Isn’t clear ...
As per what every one else is saying, dont over think it. If you want a performance ICE car, buy one.
One thing i would say is - you dont need to spend a fortune to get something quite special, Buy the right car at the right price now and no matter what, it should hold the bulk of its value as a minimum, or likely appreciate.
Also - depreciation only comes in to effect when you sell the car. If you plan on keeping the car long term, then only the purchase price is relevant really.
One thing i would say is - you dont need to spend a fortune to get something quite special, Buy the right car at the right price now and no matter what, it should hold the bulk of its value as a minimum, or likely appreciate.
Also - depreciation only comes in to effect when you sell the car. If you plan on keeping the car long term, then only the purchase price is relevant really.
Eventually my daily car will probably be am EV. My current daily car is a diesel S Class, the silence and the torque make it a lovely thing to drive. A well powered electric motor would make it even quieter and more refined which suits it.
As said ICE'd cars aren't all being scrapped as of January 1st 2030 so there's no panic. I personally wouldn't be buying an EV now, they're not at a point price or ability wise to suit my needs. In 2030 they could well be but it's likely I'll be driving a hybrid kind of car before I go fully EV.
Oh and I'll be keeping my V8. There's too much business that relies on ICEs that I can't imagine would want the rug pulled out from under them. They'll become more specialist but I'm sure we'll require the likes of proper mechanics for a long time yet.
As said ICE'd cars aren't all being scrapped as of January 1st 2030 so there's no panic. I personally wouldn't be buying an EV now, they're not at a point price or ability wise to suit my needs. In 2030 they could well be but it's likely I'll be driving a hybrid kind of car before I go fully EV.
Oh and I'll be keeping my V8. There's too much business that relies on ICEs that I can't imagine would want the rug pulled out from under them. They'll become more specialist but I'm sure we'll require the likes of proper mechanics for a long time yet.
stevemcs said:
Find me a large estate for 5k that I can own and don’t have to pay out monthly for and I’ll buy one.
This is my issue, I haven't spent more than £1500 on a car in the last 6 years, I do long distance driving in all conditions. From 800miles across Europe to visit family, to driving in Lapland in -30 degree weather, never mind an ill fated trip through turkey to try and get to Russia.I'm sure EV cars will come that can do these things but I have noticed estate cars aren't part of the plan for manufacturers and the availability of good charging facilities especially in wilder areas will always be a problem. Then there's the cost, the ones that will be able to cope with these conditions, provide good range and give adequate space for dog/supplies for a 3month trip are going to be very expensive for a long time.
I know these examples are extreme but EV tech isn't close right now at the affordable level I need it to be. I will admit that for the other half pootling about the countryside up here EV makes all the sense in the world, but again not until I'm not shelling out £300 a month for the privilege.
FourWheelDrift said:
No one has yet come up with a solution to charging parked on-road EVs overnight, if you can't park outside your own house how do you charge up an EV. You can't have cables up and down the path as they are a trip hazard and you can't trust anyone not to unplug the car overnight. So what will they do?
This 2030 target for new cars only being EV is short-sighted and I do predict it to slip to a later date and any new ICE ban taking longer.
Chargers in lampposts are becoming more widespread (slowly) to overcome the lack of off street parking. More charging hubs will spring up, as will chargers in car parks. You also can't unplug the cable once the car is locked and/or its charging so no worries there.This 2030 target for new cars only being EV is short-sighted and I do predict it to slip to a later date and any new ICE ban taking longer.
Once contactless charging rolls out it will help the charging situation. Safety issue to sort first though, plus advances in battery technology needed and the infrastructure and mechanism of paying. So probably 30 odd years until UK has any sort of useful contactless charging network. China have contactless charging for some bus routes. They have a charging pad built into the road at each bus stop so get a quick boost at every stop.
I suspect that we won’t charge our EVs at what are currently petrol stations.
Whilst, existing petrol stations (with space) will add super chargers etc., I suspect it will be car parks, office car parks etc. across the country that will have charging “docks/sockets”, especially so at supermarkets etc.
As most people don’t do 150/200 miles a week, they won’t need to charge more than a couple of times a month, so will top up when doing their shopping, at work etc.
Whilst that might not work for “everyone”, people will simply adapt (or have to) and manage when/where they charge accordingly.
Whilst, existing petrol stations (with space) will add super chargers etc., I suspect it will be car parks, office car parks etc. across the country that will have charging “docks/sockets”, especially so at supermarkets etc.
As most people don’t do 150/200 miles a week, they won’t need to charge more than a couple of times a month, so will top up when doing their shopping, at work etc.
Whilst that might not work for “everyone”, people will simply adapt (or have to) and manage when/where they charge accordingly.
Dracoro said:
I suspect that we won’t charge our EVs at what are currently petrol stations.
Whilst, existing petrol stations (with space) will add super chargers etc., I suspect it will be car parks, office car parks etc. across the country that will have charging “docks/sockets”, especially so at supermarkets etc.
As most people don’t do 150/200 miles a week, they won’t need to charge more than a couple of times a month, so will top up when doing their shopping, at work etc.
Whilst that might not work for “everyone”, people will simply adapt (or have to) and manage when/where they charge accordingly.
Exactly. It will be a combo of charging options, many at home (journey origin) but loads of commercial options available at popular destinations. Some travel patterns may have to be adapted, but for many it will probably just be easier than the diversion to a petrol station.Whilst, existing petrol stations (with space) will add super chargers etc., I suspect it will be car parks, office car parks etc. across the country that will have charging “docks/sockets”, especially so at supermarkets etc.
As most people don’t do 150/200 miles a week, they won’t need to charge more than a couple of times a month, so will top up when doing their shopping, at work etc.
Whilst that might not work for “everyone”, people will simply adapt (or have to) and manage when/where they charge accordingly.
Enjoyed the earlier comment about the rate of change... manufacturers are preparing for a massive and very rapid change, and have no option due to emission reduction requirements. Ignore the rates of uptake today, but even that is a massive hike as compared to a couple of years ago.
And in the 'real' world......
TPTB will use the scheduled EV replacement of ICE cars to significantly change the motoring landscape.
Why should you 'drive' a car at all?
If every single vehicle on the road had the same (as in compatible) 'brain' then PTDs (Personable Transportation Devices) would talk to one another.
PTDs could then travel along motorways (ie no other incompatible users) at 100mph, literally inches apart - in perfect safety.
The biggest cause of accidents and, lets be honest, fuel inefficiency is the 'nut behind the wheel' - having self driving, interconnected PTDs* would bring immediate benefits.
But not for those of us who regard ourselves as motoring enthusiasts.
History has plenty of examples where what was once 'normal' behaviour has changed and 'we' have forgotten what we used to do and take for granted.
examples:
Go back to the '70's drunk driving was frowned on rather than being regarded as (as it rightly is) a huge sin - you were just 'unlucky' to be caught.
Prior to December 1965 there was no speed limits on motorways
Can't say I'm looking forward to it all myself.
The funny think is how our society has quite willingly walked into (and is happy to pay for) our surveillance society?
Remember that marketing strapline: The future's bright, the future's orange?
To be replaced with The future's dull, the future's green!
TPTB will use the scheduled EV replacement of ICE cars to significantly change the motoring landscape.
Why should you 'drive' a car at all?
If every single vehicle on the road had the same (as in compatible) 'brain' then PTDs (Personable Transportation Devices) would talk to one another.
PTDs could then travel along motorways (ie no other incompatible users) at 100mph, literally inches apart - in perfect safety.
The biggest cause of accidents and, lets be honest, fuel inefficiency is the 'nut behind the wheel' - having self driving, interconnected PTDs* would bring immediate benefits.
But not for those of us who regard ourselves as motoring enthusiasts.
History has plenty of examples where what was once 'normal' behaviour has changed and 'we' have forgotten what we used to do and take for granted.
examples:
Go back to the '70's drunk driving was frowned on rather than being regarded as (as it rightly is) a huge sin - you were just 'unlucky' to be caught.
Prior to December 1965 there was no speed limits on motorways
Can't say I'm looking forward to it all myself.
The funny think is how our society has quite willingly walked into (and is happy to pay for) our surveillance society?
Remember that marketing strapline: The future's bright, the future's orange?
To be replaced with The future's dull, the future's green!
- PTDs Will be 'rented' 'Johnny Cabs' rather than 'owned' vehicles - this would reduced irradicate problems of charging networks, allow greater housing density (no garages / parking)
alfaspecial said:
And in the 'real' world......
TPTB will use the scheduled EV replacement of ICE cars to significantly change the motoring landscape.
Why should you 'drive' a car at all?
If every single vehicle on the road had the same (as in compatible) 'brain' then PTDs (Personable Transportation Devices) would talk to one another.
PTDs could then travel along motorways (ie no other incompatible users) at 100mph, literally inches apart - in perfect safety.
The biggest cause of accidents and, lets be honest, fuel inefficiency is the 'nut behind the wheel' - having self driving, interconnected PTDs* would bring immediate benefits.
But not for those of us who regard ourselves as motoring enthusiasts.
History has plenty of examples where what was once 'normal' behaviour has changed and 'we' have forgotten what we used to do and take for granted.
examples:
Go back to the '70's drunk driving was frowned on rather than being regarded as (as it rightly is) a huge sin - you were just 'unlucky' to be caught.
Prior to December 1965 there was no speed limits on motorways
Can't say I'm looking forward to it all myself.
The funny think is how our society has quite willingly walked into (and is happy to pay for) our surveillance society?
Remember that marketing strapline: The future's bright, the future's orange?
To be replaced with The future's dull, the future's green!
Pretty much what envision for the self driving cars. Obviously much safer and efficient without human error or ego in the mix. Until....TPTB will use the scheduled EV replacement of ICE cars to significantly change the motoring landscape.
Why should you 'drive' a car at all?
If every single vehicle on the road had the same (as in compatible) 'brain' then PTDs (Personable Transportation Devices) would talk to one another.
PTDs could then travel along motorways (ie no other incompatible users) at 100mph, literally inches apart - in perfect safety.
The biggest cause of accidents and, lets be honest, fuel inefficiency is the 'nut behind the wheel' - having self driving, interconnected PTDs* would bring immediate benefits.
But not for those of us who regard ourselves as motoring enthusiasts.
History has plenty of examples where what was once 'normal' behaviour has changed and 'we' have forgotten what we used to do and take for granted.
examples:
Go back to the '70's drunk driving was frowned on rather than being regarded as (as it rightly is) a huge sin - you were just 'unlucky' to be caught.
Prior to December 1965 there was no speed limits on motorways
Can't say I'm looking forward to it all myself.
The funny think is how our society has quite willingly walked into (and is happy to pay for) our surveillance society?
Remember that marketing strapline: The future's bright, the future's orange?
To be replaced with The future's dull, the future's green!
- PTDs Will be 'rented' 'Johnny Cabs' rather than 'owned' vehicles - this would reduced irradicate problems of charging networks, allow greater housing density (no garages / parking)
One day, there will be an eventuality where a crash is inevitable and the car ai must decide who’s the gonner. Will it decide to kill or injure its lone 50 year old passenger to save the 3 kids in the other vehicle?...
Would you buy a car that might choose to injure you?
This might lead to software hacks by those who feel they’re the important ones. Scary.
Down on the Farm said:
av185 said:
What type of car are you referring to and what price?
Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.
Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.
Hi av Last of the line particularly na high end high performance cars are seeing a resurgance atm despite known headwinds. Unfortunately some will end up in collections but values are expected to rise especially limited run models.
Porsche are investing bigtime in alternative fuel plants amd wholst they are at the front of ev drsign they are clearly committed to continuing ice car production for some considerable time.
I would like a new 718 GTS 4.0 but looking like long long delivery.
So also considering nearly new 992 2S / 4S so topping 100k
As I have said can't really get down the OPC to see what I want and test drive at the moment.
I think I just need to choose something and get on with it
Restricted new car production has tended to support 992 Carrera residuals. A surprisingly quick car but a bit sterile for some.
Muddle238 said:
rockin said:
Muddle238 said:
Petrol and diesel will be around for a long time to come.
Don't bet on it.How's a "petrol station" going to be a viable business when a couple of old croakers turn up in their "classics" once a month for 20 litres of unleaded? They need a queue at the pumps and a van-load of builders buying Ginsters pies just to stay afloat.
However I still stand by my thoughts about petrol and diesel being around for a long time - both are a by-product of fractional distillation of crude oil. We will still produce them whether we like it or not, as such once the traditional petrol station has disappeared in a few decades, fuel will be delivered to home-storage tanks to those who require it, very similar to how home heating oil is currently delivered and stored.
To run alongside their existing petrol stations of course.
GrJa said:
Pretty much what envision for the self driving cars. Obviously much safer and efficient without human error or ego in the mix. Until....
One day, there will be an eventuality where a crash is inevitable and the car ai must decide who’s the gonner. Will it decide to kill or injure its lone 50 year old passenger to save the 3 kids in the other vehicle?...
Would you buy a car that might choose to injure you?
This might lead to software hacks by those who feel they’re the important ones. Scary.
Haha. Love alfas Johnny Cabs comment. That really is the end for car enthusiasts.One day, there will be an eventuality where a crash is inevitable and the car ai must decide who’s the gonner. Will it decide to kill or injure its lone 50 year old passenger to save the 3 kids in the other vehicle?...
Would you buy a car that might choose to injure you?
This might lead to software hacks by those who feel they’re the important ones. Scary.
Hi Gr Ja, I'm a retired controls engineer and I just can't see the autonomous tech being there in my lifetime.
Just imagine your operating system is a tad out of date or not fully compatible with the young guns chasing the latest tech and your priority for survival goes to the bottom of the stack!
or if your status is lessened as you get older and less productive member of society being retired so you get the bullet! 
av185 said:
GTS a good shout the Cayman is almost a cut price but far less focused road going GT4.
Restricted new car production has tended to support 992 Carrera residuals. A surprisingly quick car but a bit sterile for some.
Thanks for the insight av.Restricted new car production has tended to support 992 Carrera residuals. A surprisingly quick car but a bit sterile for some.
My preference would be for the CGTS 4.0 with a few choice options.
That's interesting regarding the 992 production restrictions. I would want a lightly specced possibly Manual. I can but ask though. Everything I see advertised is loaded with options I wouldn't wAnt or get my monies worth out of. I know I should have an eye to resale but it's got to work for me.
Watched all the key reviews and just need to get down to the OPC to have a look and explore possibilities.
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