ICE ban clouds on the horizon. Are you out?

[DonkeyApple]

ashenfie said:

I see. PCP as a huge issue for the UK for the very reason you quote, people are buying car they can't really afford. Monthly payment for a house make sense, because they house almost certainly will be more valuable going forward, everything else is a cost. Maybe covid will burst the PCP bubble or simple companies that badly manage their used car prices will.

EVs are £30k upwards in viable cars. Well for me they are not are viable as I live in a 3rd floor flat and don't travel hugely, So purchasing 2 year old 3 series makes sense and has a low impact on the environment. Someone else has lost a packet on the car already, so I don't have too.

It is curtain that much better and cheaper EVs will come out in the next 5 years and hopefully match Tesla's charging network USP, likely to cause many current EVs prices to tumble.

Saying that PCP facilitates the act of a consumer acquiring use of a vehicle they couldn't otherwise afford is a dangerous comment to makenon PH and can trigger a big thread derailment.

Better to suggest that PCP and sent in general facilitates unnecessary excess consumption that is bad for the environment and poisons kittens and children.

But consumer debt plays a very significant role in excess pollution from private cars in the UK. It does facilitate the quicker consumption of vehicles and vehicles being larger, heavier and more wasteful than they need to be.

If you were to limit consumer credit for cars to say £10k per head max facility at any one time then you would see a marked fall in the number of the most polluting vehicles on the road. Average car sizes and weights would also begin to drop as more frugal, smaller, lighter vehicles were bought.

You could even omit EVs from the credit control as a means to boost their adoption without having to use subsidies, legislation or false markets.

What's essential is to keep the population mobile but to reduce their consumption and the most efficient way to do that would be to bring consumer credit down to a level that excludes no one from acquiring a vehicle but didn't facilitate the overt activity of access to excessively large and polluting vehicles.

The flip side is that the debt requirement would shift to other markets and so there wouldn't be a significant drop in tax take. Just like automotive debt spiralled upwards after the credit crunch when other forms of consumer debt and property debt were throttled back by reimposed regulations.

There were smarter ways for the UK to encourage EV adoption that wouldn't have caused the social concerns that the chosen path has. It is a great shame that we opted for the path that we did. And I personally feel that this path is inhibiting EV adoption where other, smarter, paths would have seen is so much further down the road today.

[rxe]

CSLM3CSL said:

I believe second cars are massively pushing the average mileage down.

IMO the average figures that are spouted are utterly meaningless.

I’ve just realised that from next year, I’ve been handed an 800 mile round trip once every two months - the eldest has decided to go to Uni in Scotland, and we live at the other end of the country. Given that it will be high speed motorway (we will time it so it is), any reasonably priced electric car will need at least one stop each way, maybe two. And, no, we’re not planning on over nighting it, he’ll drive up, I’ll turn round and drive down. I predict this will be an utter ball ache of broken chargers and queues, just like PHs Taycan adventure.

On average, I’ll be doing about 20 miles day, but it will just be a bit lumpy....

[DonkeyApple]

rxe said:

CSLM3CSL said:

I believe second cars are massively pushing the average mileage down.

IMO the average figures that are spouted are utterly meaningless.

I’ve just realised that from next year, I’ve been handed an 800 mile round trip once every two months - the eldest has decided to go to Uni in Scotland, and we live at the other end of the country. Given that it will be high speed motorway (we will time it so it is), any reasonably priced electric car will need at least one stop each way, maybe two. And, no, we’re not planning on over nighting it, he’ll drive up, I’ll turn round and drive down. I predict this will be an utter ball ache of broken chargers and queues, just like PHs Taycan adventure.

On average, I’ll be doing about 20 miles day, but it will just be a bit lumpy....

So a cheap 50 mile range EV on the drive and pre booked hire car once every two months?

It's not ideal and I'd be the first to enjoy the luxury of just having one utility vehicle that did it all but there is already an easy solution to your situation if you did want to use an EV but never have the hassle of stopping to charge.

[swisstoni]

Dracoro said:

swisstoni said:

Most cars, especially 2nd cars, will potter around locally with a tiny range required.
But every now and again the 2nd car is required to make some big trip to visit Mum or a university run, etc.

It is that requirement that makes people uneasy.

It will be easy to overcome that. e.g. we drive to the West Country once or twice a year (or none at the moment!) and always stop somewhere to take a break, get some lunch etc. It won't be long before all (or a large number of) parking spaces have fast chargers. So whilst we're sorting lunch, taking a break etc. the car will get sufficiently topped up.

How many of these long journeys do we absolutely have to get there in the minimum time possible? Not many, most people will have no problem taking 30/60 minute break on a 3/400 mile journey.

I agree but on a medium range trip, say from London to the West Country it’s nice to think you can at least get to your destination without stopping if you don’t feel like it.

Of course none of this is insurmountable but people have become used to not having to think about it.

[crofty1984]

Deranged Rover said:

I hope there’s no ICE ban any time soon.

I like to listen to the radio or to a CD when I’m in the car.

The defendant was seen, by several independent witnesses, indulging in a series of Bangin' CHOONZ. How do you plead?

[bigothunter]

Max_Torque said:

This means that we might expect to be able to have greater freedom to modifiy our cars beyond current limitations, where a software modification could unlock potentially a LOT more performance for no efficiency deficit :-)

Wonder what the Technischer Überwachungsverein (TÜV) would make of that proposal?

[anonymous-user]

rxe said:

CSLM3CSL said:

I believe second cars are massively pushing the average mileage down.

IMO the average figures that are spouted are utterly meaningless.

I’ve just realised that from next year, I’ve been handed an 800 mile round trip once every two months - the eldest has decided to go to Uni in Scotland, and we live at the other end of the country. Given that it will be high speed motorway (we will time it so it is), any reasonably priced electric car will need at least one stop each way, maybe two. And, no, we’re not planning on over nighting it, he’ll drive up, I’ll turn round and drive down. I predict this will be an utter ball ache of broken chargers and queues, just like PHs Taycan adventure.

On average, I’ll be doing about 20 miles day, but it will just be a bit lumpy....

So six times a year, just hire a small diesel van. Your son can fill with with crap to take to uni, it's cost you peanuts, and by driving an EV for the other 351 days that year you will save enough money to easily pay for the hire!

If this is a "problem" to you, then i feel that you are, frankly, not really a terribly resourceful person....... ;-)

[anonymous-user]

bigothunter said:

Max_Torque said:

This means that we might expect to be able to have greater freedom to modifiy our cars beyond current limitations, where a software modification could unlock potentially a LOT more performance for no efficiency deficit :-)

Wonder what the Technischer Überwachungsverein (TÜV) would make of that proposal?

The TUV already allow private car modifications, as long as they fall within certain guide lines, and in the UK, we currently have much greater freedoms to modifiy our cars (only the trivially easy MOT test to pass really).

Modifying an EV for more power does not mean it is less efficient or has greater tailpipe emissons or makes more noise, so frankly, i see such things are getting easier not harder!

[bigothunter]

Max_Torque said:

Modifying an EV for more power does not mean it is less efficient or has greater tailpipe emissons or makes more noise, so frankly, i see such things are getting easier not harder!

Good luck with that opinion

[Dracoro]

Max_Torque said:

rxe said:

CSLM3CSL said:

I believe second cars are massively pushing the average mileage down.

IMO the average figures that are spouted are utterly meaningless.

I’ve just realised that from next year, I’ve been handed an 800 mile round trip once every two months - the eldest has decided to go to Uni in Scotland, and we live at the other end of the country. Given that it will be high speed motorway (we will time it so it is), any reasonably priced electric car will need at least one stop each way, maybe two. And, no, we’re not planning on over nighting it, he’ll drive up, I’ll turn round and drive down. I predict this will be an utter ball ache of broken chargers and queues, just like PHs Taycan adventure.

On average, I’ll be doing about 20 miles day, but it will just be a bit lumpy....

So six times a year, just hire a small diesel van. Your son can fill with with crap to take to uni, it's cost you peanuts, and by driving an EV for the other 351 days that year you will save enough money to easily pay for the hire!

If this is a "problem" to you, then i feel that you are, frankly, not really a terribly resourceful person....... ;-)

Also, apart from summer holidays, does he really need to bring everything back? Surely just fill a rucksack/bag and jump on the train would work?

[bigothunter]

Dracoro said:

Also, apart from summer holidays, does he really need to bring everything back? Surely just fill a rucksack/bag and jump on the train would work?

bigothunter said:

Relegate private cars to local use but depend on 'reliable' public transport for crucial long distance travel (eg business trips)?

Seems relegating private cars is gaining support

[rxe]

DonkeyApple said:

So a cheap 50 mile range EV on the drive and pre booked hire car once every two months?

It's not ideal and I'd be the first to enjoy the luxury of just having one utility vehicle that did it all but there is already an easy solution to your situation if you did want to use an EV but never have the hassle of stopping to charge.

Sure, there are loads of solutions ranging from hiring a jet to fly him there (with luggage) all the way down to giving him a bicycle with a large basket on the front and telling him to get on with it.

Of course I could hire a car, but why would I want to? I have a perfectly good car today, that will do the journey with ease. I’m just get in it and drive any distance that I want to. Now, politically, EVs are going to be forced on us, but it doesn’t sound like progress to me.

[Dracoro]

rxe said:

DonkeyApple said:

So a cheap 50 mile range EV on the drive and pre booked hire car once every two months?

It's not ideal and I'd be the first to enjoy the luxury of just having one utility vehicle that did it all but there is already an easy solution to your situation if you did want to use an EV but never have the hassle of stopping to charge.

Sure, there are loads of solutions ranging from hiring a jet to fly him there (with luggage) all the way down to giving him a bicycle with a large basket on the front and telling him to get on with it.

Of course I could hire a car, but why would I want to? I have a perfectly good car today, that will do the journey with ease. I’m just get in it and drive any distance that I want to. Now, politically, EVs are going to be forced on us, but it doesn’t sound like progress to me.

You're still free to run your old petrol car if you want to. they're not banning old cars.

By the time that most people have (or have to have) EVs, range/charge times will unlikely be an issue.

Anyway even now, that 400 mile journey can be done in a half decent EV if you plan in some time to charge. As it's only a few times a year, that's no big deal is it, really?

[Scootersp]

rxe said:

IMO the average figures that are spouted are utterly meaningless.

I’ve just realised that from next year, I’ve been handed an 800 mile round trip once every two months - the eldest has decided to go to Uni in Scotland, and we live at the other end of the country. Given that it will be high speed motorway (we will time it so it is), any reasonably priced electric car will need at least one stop each way, maybe two. And, no, we’re not planning on over nighting it, he’ll drive up, I’ll turn round and drive down. I predict this will be an utter ball ache of broken chargers and queues, just like PHs Taycan adventure.

On average, I’ll be doing about 20 miles day, but it will just be a bit lumpy....

I'm watching these dual engined cars closely to see if they stick with them and get the pure EV miles up. If would fit your needs well, just be a 'nice' diesel motorway trundler and EV at each end or not at all, up to you. Currently I think they have about 30 miles in them of pure electric, so a useful chunk of part of a commute, if you could charge at work, probably the bulk of most peoples commute and then you have a normal diesel engine for any time you want to go anywhere.

Imagine in 2029 being able to buy a car with a efficient diesel/petrol engine and a switchable electric of say even just 70 miles? I think these give the best of all worlds apart from obviously ultimate green credentials. They would I think provide a decent stepping stone as the all electric element gives the experience of a total EV but the reassurance/lack of perceived hassle of having a pure EV.

[Dracoro]

Scootersp said:

Imagine in 2029 being able to buy a car with a efficient diesel/petrol engine and a switchable electric of say even just 70 miles?

We're almost there now are we not?
Say a Rav4, that's 46 mile EV range (lets call it 40 in in reality).

I suspect we'll be up to c100 in 2/3 years time, esp in non-small cars where weight penalty isn't so much of an issue.

[321boost]

Dracoro said:

rxe said:

DonkeyApple said:

So a cheap 50 mile range EV on the drive and pre booked hire car once every two months?

It's not ideal and I'd be the first to enjoy the luxury of just having one utility vehicle that did it all but there is already an easy solution to your situation if you did want to use an EV but never have the hassle of stopping to charge.

Sure, there are loads of solutions ranging from hiring a jet to fly him there (with luggage) all the way down to giving him a bicycle with a large basket on the front and telling him to get on with it.

Of course I could hire a car, but why would I want to? I have a perfectly good car today, that will do the journey with ease. I’m just get in it and drive any distance that I want to. Now, politically, EVs are going to be forced on us, but it doesn’t sound like progress to me.

You're still free to run your old petrol car if you want to. they're not banning old cars.

By the time that most people have (or have to have) EVs, range/charge times will unlikely be an issue.

Anyway even now, that 400 mile journey can be done in a half decent EV if you plan in some time to charge. As it's only a few times a year, that's no big deal is it, really?

We will be taxed out of petrol cars and forced to EVs or we will still be able to carry on driving our petrol cars ‘no one is forcing us’.

So which one is it really? Can’t be both

[321boost]

Max_Torque said:

rodericb said:

What sort of production volume for EV's give that scale where the cost of production equals an ICE car?

equivalence is the quoted point, ie where the same number of EVs is manufactured as EVs. This happens at 50% market penetration, because each EV sold displaces an ICE sale. In the UK where we buy 2M cars a year typically, 1M EV sales reaches equivalence.

The lower BOM is due to the intrinsic parallism of EV powertrains (more parts off the same tooling and process, and with a lower manual labour and energy input), the simpler/quicker assembly process, and the much less onerous development, validation and crucially certification overheads required in order to sell a robust and legal passenger car.

For example, take the crankshaft. Broadly speaking the crankshaft in say a BMW 3 cyl engine is "half" the one fitted to a BMW 6cyl engine. But it's not really. It needs different tooling to hold and machine it, the engine it goes in, and the stresses it experiences are all different, so each engine, the 1.5 3cyl and the 3.0 6 cyl will BOTH have a huge complex development and validation process. And because those engines have tailpipe emissions, they must be certified both for those emissions but also certified for the OnBoard Diagnostics that attempts to ensure those emissions in use are as they should be (because there are a huge number of ways in which an ICE can expirence wear and failure that lead to increasded emissions. So from the machine that does up the big ends to the crate that holds the cranks in storage and transport, to the forging dies, the grinding tooling, even the amount of hot liquid metal and casting mouldings, all are UNIQUE to each engine type.

Now consider a battery cell. A single cell can be used in both a mini sized car with say a 30 kWh battery, and a SUV sized one with say a 100 kWh battery. The only difference is the number of cells fitted. Each battery uses the same,identical part, the tooling is identical, the testing identical, the logistics, certification and warehousing identical. The machine that makes the cells identical, you just build say 3 machines instead of just one (and here the economies of scale start to work at the level of production tooling!!!) to make 3x as many cells.


And it's not just the cells. it works with eMachine laminates, windings, magnets, with power silicon and power conversion components.

You design one part, and uses it across a massive number of vehicles. That is simply not possible for an ICE.

This also drives one interesting (to us petrolheads interested in going fast) embodyment of this process, namely that it is probably cheaper to an OE to have a limited number of physical powertrains, uses in as many platforms as possible with SOFTWARE limiting. Because the losses of an eMachine are so low, you can fit a 300bhp eMachine to a small car, detuned to just 150bhp, and really, there is no significant efficiency loss (unlike putting a 3.0l 6cyl in a mini, where the extra friction and parasitics would render that car non-viable) and if that motor comes off a highly parallel line, it will be cheaper to use it, unchanged, instead of trying to reduce the cost of that individual motor (where the manufacturing overheads out weight the component cost)

This means that we might expect to be able to have greater freedom to modifiy our cars beyond current limitations, where a software modification could unlock potentially a LOT more performance for no efficiency deficit :-)

Doesn’t seem the case with Norway. EV market penetration is more than 50%.

[rxe]

Dracoro said:

You're still free to run your old petrol car if you want to. they're not banning old cars.

By the time that most people have (or have to have) EVs, range/charge times will unlikely be an issue.

Anyway even now, that 400 mile journey can be done in a half decent EV if you plan in some time to charge. As it's only a few times a year, that's no big deal is it, really?

Yes, it is a big deal. If everything goes well, its an extra 2 hours sitting by the road side on a 12 hour journey.

And to the point about hybrids - IMO they’re the solution. You have something that solves all the range problems, and it can be an EV if pollution matters. I’d quite happily have a hybrid as my next car.

[321boost]

SWoll said:

321boost said:

The price.
A decent cheap five door petrol 2012 car could be had for about £1750 (AT). The cheapest five door leaf with 33% depleted battery can be had for £3995 (AT). Norway has over 50% market share of electric cars and the cheapest leaf I could find was £3500 so even with more of them they are still expensive, although my norwegian is a bit rough so might not be searching right. I chose leaf because I can see battery health on it. You could try mitsubishi imiev too.

There will be far more used EV choice in 2040 which will drive prices down, very limited at the moment. Even so I'd be interested in what 2012 ICE car you're using as an example for the figures given as £1750 seems very cheap?

my point is that a new Fiesta bought today will be a £500 Fiesta in 2040 based on current prices so should still be an option, unless they ban the sales of used ICE cars before that point of course. (which seems highly unlikely) .

I see your point of being able to choose from different models could change things but I still think EV will raise the cheapest price for a car. The leaf example already shows it.
Car ownership is never going away as much as people like it to so people will simply be in more debt or on lease.
Check prices on AT.

[Scootersp]

Dracoro said:

Scootersp said:

Imagine in 2029 being able to buy a car with a efficient diesel/petrol engine and a switchable electric of say even just 70 miles?

We're almost there now are we not?
Say a Rav4, that's 46 mile EV range (lets call it 40 in in reality).

I suspect we'll be up to c100 in 2/3 years time, esp in non-small cars where weight penalty isn't so much of an issue.

I'm more looking at the used market, as I always do and so looking at the older cars now, but yes this sort of thing has legs IMO, a healthy used market of these type of cars by 2030 will help the transition more I think. As a ICE user they provide a win win? Downsides are green credentials and complexity by having the EV and ICE elements and the gubbins that makes these coexist.