Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)
Discussion
https://www.carbuyer.co.uk/news/304149/uk-car-owne...
Not sure if 100% relevant to the thread, but link is interesting reading.
Not sure if 100% relevant to the thread, but link is interesting reading.
av185 said:
Mr Whippy said:
Were people asleep in 2007/8/9?
Inflation! Stagflation! Rate rises!
Car prices strong.
Petrol and diesel spiking in price.
2009. Cars probably went from 20% a year depreciation average to 35-40% curves over that 18 month period.
Dealers that were full of used Porsches (specialist one near me I drove past regularly), now full of diesel VWs and Audis etc.
Given 36 months used to be a 50% loss, or 20% a year, I can see a 50% in 18-24 months drop coming along soon.
Extremely unlikely, simply due to rising new prices.Inflation! Stagflation! Rate rises!
Car prices strong.
Petrol and diesel spiking in price.
2009. Cars probably went from 20% a year depreciation average to 35-40% curves over that 18 month period.
Dealers that were full of used Porsches (specialist one near me I drove past regularly), now full of diesel VWs and Audis etc.
Given 36 months used to be a 50% loss, or 20% a year, I can see a 50% in 18-24 months drop coming along soon.
Btw we were buying 2 year old Carreras in early 2009 at 20% under book.
What was surprising though was the pace of recovery. Many sold out on the crash took a masdive hit ££ but were forced to pay way over book price retail on the rise ££ buying back in due to the speed of the bounce back in prices. Shows clearly how being out of the market is often riskier than being in.
No chance this will be repeated this time around though. Totally different scenario simply due to the supply constraints and huge increase in new prices.
Yes fewer buyers for cars with the economic headwinds but fewer cars available to buy.
On supply, well I think if we really have a recession and inflation stays high, no one will be buying cars full stop. They'll stick with what they've got if they can. So demand will be low enough to force prices to drop.
As you note, this didn't really have to happen in 2008/9, but it did. Used car dealers ultimately have bills to pay and businesses to run, and they'll compete rather than try team together and set prices high.
Fusion777 said:
Car buying is absolutely ripe for disruption.
Indeed. I put in an online enquiry about a car with a dealership who claimed to offer easy online ordering, just wanted a simple (email) response to a question and finance query for which I had already supplied everything they'd need to process online. Within my working day I had 4 voicemails from 2 salespeople (from the same dealership!) one of whom followed up again, and a finance administrator. Went on Cinch, order process was unbelievably slick, everything from finance application to selecting a delivery slot was 100% automated and completed in less than 20 minutes during my lunchbreak. You could even split deposit payment across multiple cards without any manual intervention (useful even if just to put a quid on the credit card to gain protection that way).
Not for everyone, sure, but the idea of dealing with those salespeople in person put me off and was exactly why I was looking to order online in the first place. It reminded me of the days of just wanting to look at a mobile phone in a phone shop and being pounced upon as soon as you walk through the door.
ch37 said:
Indeed. I put in an online enquiry about a car with a dealership who claimed to offer easy online ordering, just wanted a simple (email) response to a question and finance query for which I had already supplied everything they'd need to process online. Within my working day I had 4 voicemails from 2 salespeople (from the same dealership!) one of whom followed up again, and a finance administrator.
Went on Cinch, order process was unbelievably slick, everything from finance application to selecting a delivery slot was 100% automated and completed in less than 20 minutes during my lunchbreak. You could even split deposit payment across multiple cards without any manual intervention (useful even if just to put a quid on the credit card to gain protection that way).
Not for everyone, sure, but the idea of dealing with those salespeople in person put me off and was exactly why I was looking to order online in the first place. It reminded me of the days of just wanting to look at a mobile phone in a phone shop and being pounced upon as soon as you walk through the door.
Aye. It was the same back in the day in Dixons/Comet/Curry’s and the like (still is to a degree, but not as bad). No doubt plenty of people then said that you needed to visit a store to buy a piece of electrical hardware. Went on Cinch, order process was unbelievably slick, everything from finance application to selecting a delivery slot was 100% automated and completed in less than 20 minutes during my lunchbreak. You could even split deposit payment across multiple cards without any manual intervention (useful even if just to put a quid on the credit card to gain protection that way).
Not for everyone, sure, but the idea of dealing with those salespeople in person put me off and was exactly why I was looking to order online in the first place. It reminded me of the days of just wanting to look at a mobile phone in a phone shop and being pounced upon as soon as you walk through the door.
It’s just a culture change. Quite often, to certain people it doesn’t seem like anything other than the status quo is possible. They become embedded in the norm. It often takes outsiders to shake things up. Pretty silly having hundreds of dealers in a country all selling one marque, when you think about it.
Fusion777 said:
Aye. It was the same back in the day in Dixons/Comet/Curry’s and the like (still is to a degree, but not as bad). No doubt plenty of people then said that you needed to visit a store to buy a piece of electrical hardware.
It’s just a culture change. Quite often, to certain people it doesn’t seem like anything other than the status quo is possible. They become embedded in the norm. It often takes outsiders to shake things up. Pretty silly having hundreds of dealers in a country all selling one marque, when you think about it.
The fly in the ointment is that buying a brand new boxed large electrical item from an online source and buying an item that is well and truly used and been left out in all weathers and subject to years of (ab)use is very different It’s just a culture change. Quite often, to certain people it doesn’t seem like anything other than the status quo is possible. They become embedded in the norm. It often takes outsiders to shake things up. Pretty silly having hundreds of dealers in a country all selling one marque, when you think about it.
For brand new cars it’s fine to buy online and we’ve done it many times with lease cars and privately bought ones where the first time we’ve seen them is when the transporter arrives outside the house
But, like branded electronic goods it’s much better to have a choice of retailers competing for your business than being forced to go to only one manufacturer controlled source
But buying a 7 year old Jag from Mr A Daley at No3 The Arches ….
e-honda said:
Auto810graphy said:
There will be a few people that like the hassle free experience of buying online but in the future this will be via the manufacturers and traditional dealer network rather than these “disrupters”.
Why? Now that much fear and uncertainty of buying as car online has been swept aside by the pandemic, what possible reason could you give an ordinary car buyer to opt for a traditional dealer?Why do you think people favour anything over a 'hassle free experience'?
Heycar / Spoticar etc are meant to be the bridge between manufacturers and the new disrupters whilst Tesla, Polestar, Genesis etc are already trying to handle the nearly new market for their products.
Auto810graphy said:
Cazoo will fall by the side when the investors stop pilling in money as they have already publicly admitted they will never make profit.
I don’t think “never” is quite true. If you’re going off their SEC filing (as they’re a US company) then all the dire warnings are standard stuff that are typical there to try and head off being sued by shareholders.Of course it may well turn out that “never” is correct but if they publicly admitted it they’d have to just shut down.
Auto810graphy said:
e-honda said:
Auto810graphy said:
There will be a few people that like the hassle free experience of buying online but in the future this will be via the manufacturers and traditional dealer network rather than these “disrupters”.
Why? Now that much fear and uncertainty of buying as car online has been swept aside by the pandemic, what possible reason could you give an ordinary car buyer to opt for a traditional dealer?Why do you think people favour anything over a 'hassle free experience'?
Heycar / Spoticar etc are meant to be the bridge between manufacturers and the new disrupters whilst Tesla, Polestar, Genesis etc are already trying to handle the nearly new market for their products.
The presumption is that the cars are premium/clean examples, yet the disrupters are only PDI'ing them the day before delivery. Then they find the cars need paint/repairs and rather than informing customers of a delay, they choose radio silence. Meanwhile the customer has taken a day off work to accept their "new" used car which never arrives because there's a long queue for paint or main dealer parts.
vikingaero said:
Vroomer said:
vikingaero said:
... the disrupters are only PDI'ing them the day before delivery. Then they find the cars need paint/repair ,,.
Why would they do this?I've bought two cars from Cinch, both fine with few surprises and the ones I did find (to do with the cars history) have been promptly rectified or compensation offered.
I was told they actually PDI the car as soon as it turns up with them, so in effect the car is "ready to go" as soon as it's listed. That tallies with the Volvo arriving 3 days after purchase and the Golf 4 days including a weekend.
I was told they actually PDI the car as soon as it turns up with them, so in effect the car is "ready to go" as soon as it's listed. That tallies with the Volvo arriving 3 days after purchase and the Golf 4 days including a weekend.
Earthdweller said:
May’s new car sales figures in …
Biggest drop in new car sales since 1992!
Fleet sales down 29.9%
Business sales down 27%
Private sales down 10%
Be interesting to see how much of that is down to vehicle/parts shortages.Biggest drop in new car sales since 1992!
Fleet sales down 29.9%
Business sales down 27%
Private sales down 10%
I don't think there's any lack of orders at the moment. They just can't fill them.
RUSSELLM said:
Be interesting to see how much of that is down to vehicle/parts shortages.
I don't think there's any lack of orders at the moment. They just can't fill them.
Todays brand new cars are the future second hand cars, it is clear that in the coming years there will be fewer second hand cars than ever.I don't think there's any lack of orders at the moment. They just can't fill them.
Interestingly enough my next door neighbour has just leased a Vauxhall Corsa and that was immediately available, so this seems to only apply to certain manufacturers.
Earthdweller said:
May’s new car sales figures in …
Biggest drop in new car sales since 1992!
Fleet sales down 29.9%
Business sales down 27%
Private sales down 10%
YTD compared to last year seems to be promising though, not a massive jump, but positive overall.... apart from fleet, that looks really roughBiggest drop in new car sales since 1992!
Fleet sales down 29.9%
Business sales down 27%
Private sales down 10%
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