Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices? (Vol 2)

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RUSSELLM

6,000 posts

249 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
Nefos said:
Earthdweller said:
May’s new car sales figures in …


Biggest drop in new car sales since 1992!

Fleet sales down 29.9%
Business sales down 27%
Private sales down 10%

YTD compared to last year seems to be promising though, not a massive jump, but positive overall.... apart from fleet, that looks really rough
Do those numbers represent manufacturers prioritising sales with higher margins ? Presumably the private sales.

lb3nson

811 posts

91 months

Monday 6th June 2022
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Joey Deacon said:
Todays brand new cars are the future second hand cars, it is clear that in the coming years there will be fewer second hand cars than ever.

Interestingly enough my next door neighbour has just leased a Vauxhall Corsa and that was immediately available, so this seems to only apply to certain manufacturers.
Definitely, there will be a lack 1-3 year old 2nd hand car supply for quite a number of years I suspect.
Surely this will keep used values higher just due to demand.

Superflow

1,425 posts

134 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
RUSSELLM said:
Do those numbers represent manufacturers prioritising sales with higher margins ? Presumably the private sales.
I think they represent that people are starting to keep their hands in their pockets despite what some would have you believe.

anonymous-user

56 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
lb3nson said:
Definitely, there will be a lack 1-3 year old 2nd hand car supply for quite a number of years I suspect.
Surely this will keep used values higher just due to demand.
Don't forget the sale of new ICE cars is banned in 2030. We are getting close to the end of new ICE cars, and the supply of them over the last two years has been massively reduced.

We are at a crossover point where the EV should be taking over from the ICE car, but I think the infrastructure, potential range and pricing is not quite there yet. However, I think the increase in fuel prices will tempt a lot more people to look at an EV instead of an ICE car if they are buying new.

I think over the next few years people will be looking to buy potentially their last ever ICE car and this is going to massively increase demand as we get closer to 2030. I don't think manufacturers will be able to build enough cars, and they will probably have moved on to mostly building EVs by that point anyway.

EVs are not for everyone due to being unable to charge them at home, for these people ICE is the only real alternative and I think these people will be desperate to get one of the last over the next few years. I also think second hand parts are going to be in massive demand as people try to keep these cars running as long as possible.

I can honestly see ICE vehicles and parts being horded over the coming years unless EV adoption rapidly increases soon.



Superflow

1,425 posts

134 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
In time it will not matter as they will be taxing EV £3-500 per year to replace IC revenue eventually.

That deficit has to drop somehow.

Fast Bug

11,811 posts

163 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
Superflow said:
RUSSELLM said:
Do those numbers represent manufacturers prioritising sales with higher margins ? Presumably the private sales.
I think they represent that people are starting to keep their hands in their pockets despite what some would have you believe.
From what I've seen, and talking to friends that work for other manufacturers, Russell is indeed correct. More emphasis on retail as that's where the money is, in our van world we have do do a percentage of retail sales which means that the fleet order bank doesn't reduce. Supply issues have also severly impacted direct supply to a very small number which has hit the major rental companies etc

NelsonM3

1,692 posts

173 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
Niguy said:
Can’t say I’m surprised with the above figures given the state of the economy and global chip supply shortages.

To my mind, and some will disagree, it would be foolish to purchase a new car with the imminent austerity and economic recession coming down the line.
Depends. If you've had a car on order for a year and are both price protected (bear in mind most cars are now at least 10% more expensive than last year, and discounts were available) and you locked in at a very low APR rate. You'd be stark raving bonkers to cancel your order.

QuattroDave

1,487 posts

130 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
Superflow said:
Tell me about it!

I’ve got 36 Astras I can’t shift here only asking 28k as well!
£28k for all 36 isn't bad. Still, I think I'll pass :P

e-honda

9,028 posts

148 months

Monday 6th June 2022
quotequote all
NelsonM3 said:
Depends. If you've had a car on order for a year and are both price protected (bear in mind most cars are now at least 10% more expensive than last year, and discounts were available) and you locked in at a very low APR rate. You'd be stark raving bonkers to cancel your order.
Not everyone is price protected, and in some cases where people were they're being sneaky and making changes to the options packs so that what people ordered isn't available and they either lose options or have to buy more.

ghost83

5,494 posts

192 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
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Mini have increased all their prices and delivery is 16 week apparantly, their finance has gone up massively at one point it was 2% then 4.9% and now 6.9% and 9.9% on used cars


Macron

10,013 posts

168 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
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The picture is so mixed, as you'd expect with patchy supply. We have dealers on here saying can't do anything or get anything.

But at a local level just search AT for anything brand new, and dealers with stock are offering great incentives on brand new models. Kia and Hyundai, Toyota, MG, Citroën, Skoda, Suzuki, Nissan...

no you might not be able to walk into your local dealer if they have nothing, but if you're buying new who cares.

A new i20N at 24.5? I have no idea how £1800 off list compares with "before", broadspeed etc, or second hand, but anyone paying 30% more for the same mini as they could have had five minutes ago needs their head reading!

e-honda

9,028 posts

148 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
https://www.selectcarleasing.co.uk/special-offers?...

If you look at select car leasing for deals available within 1 month there are quite a few now available immediately.

Superflow

1,425 posts

134 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
QuattroDave said:
Superflow said:
Tell me about it!

I’ve got 36 Astras I can’t shift here only asking 28k as well!
£28k for all 36 isn't bad. Still, I think I'll pass :P
Are you sure? They’re a safe investment year on year, black or gold?

Milemuncher

525 posts

117 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
There are deals available on large SUVs across a number of manufacturers now, albeit you will have to wait 6-9 months for delivery in most cases. There were some stock XC90s on Carwow available immediately last time I looked.

I’d say the picture is changing rapidly.

RUSSELLM

6,000 posts

249 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
6-9 months delivery on a car that takes 8 hours to build, would suggest a waiting list.

Odd theat they're offering discounts, unless they've inflated the MRP to then discount it for the gullible.

Saweep

6,613 posts

188 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
Milemuncher said:
There are deals available on large SUVs across a number of manufacturers now, albeit you will have to wait 6-9 months for delivery in most cases. There were some stock XC90s on Carwow available immediately last time I looked.

I’d say the picture is changing rapidly.
Lots of new X5s and GLEs knocking about.

Earthdweller

13,695 posts

128 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
Saweep said:
Milemuncher said:
There are deals available on large SUVs across a number of manufacturers now, albeit you will have to wait 6-9 months for delivery in most cases. There were some stock XC90s on Carwow available immediately last time I looked.

I’d say the picture is changing rapidly.
Lots of new X5s and GLEs knocking about.
I was in the BMW dealer last week

In the showroom for immediate delivery they had two of the new i thingy’s, 1 x X1 25e, 1 x X3 20d, 1 x X5 30d, 1 x X6 30d, 1 x X7, a 520d saloon and a new model 218d 5dr

No 1 series or 3 series

CB 987

386 posts

149 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
quotequote all
Milemuncher said:
There are deals available on large SUVs across a number of manufacturers now, albeit you will have to wait 6-9 months for delivery in most cases. There were some stock XC90s on Carwow available immediately last time I looked.

I’d say the picture is changing rapidly.
I ordered a new Q7 in late November with what I thought was a decent discount, it arrived in April. For various reasons I’m just not getting on with it, so it has just been sold to main dealer group for a modest profit.

I expected to take some sort of hit, but I think I just got lucky, buying before the price increased in December and the discounts started to reduce.

Fast Bug

11,811 posts

163 months

Tuesday 7th June 2022
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I see Cazoo have announced they're cutting 750 jobs across Eurooe with the bulk of them in the UK. Hopefully those losing their jobs find a new one quickly

Tomanybikes

987 posts

28 months

Wednesday 8th June 2022
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The “heat or eat” crowd would be a tiny minority of NEW car buyers anyway and the “keeping up with the neighbours crowd could get caught out in the perfect storm of these price and interest rises but for most people it’s Buisiness as usual.