Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?

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Petrolism

457 posts

107 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
For now, prices may remain as they are; there will likely be a bit of post-lockdown pent up desire making heartful decisions...
The general U.K. public who've allowed themselves to be saddled with debt up to their eyeballs at this time, are unlikely to have suddenly become particularly financially astute.

Its interesting to see that in Japan (G3 country), the government wasn't only giving a stipend to each and every person in a household during the recently lifted (1 month) lockdown, but is now looking at another payout to tourism-related businesses, in addition to grants for web-related developments in addition to a grant to all businesses, of up to around £8,000, based on equaling the best month of income in 2019. Why are they supporting businesses and not just people? Because they see that the costs & time for recovery will be a LOT higher (& could take years) if businesses close down and there are no jobs. Japan isn't a country of much household debt. The average savings per capita are $150,000...

Now compare to the U.K. and how the government is coping. How many small businesses are they supporting? What are the average savings? Much like the U.S. I would expect... What are the prospects?
Those who believe there won't be a knock-on effect, are probably those who will are in highest debt and most likely to be hit hardest (This is the same with any crash). Living in denial doesn't make a situation disappear.

Those who haven't stretched themselves too thin and have some money saved for rainy days will likely fare better, but that's normally older people, who were brought up to only get what they can afford. I feel sorry for school leavers this year. Their prospects aren't looking great...

If 40+ million in the U.S. have signed up for unemployment and at least half of the U.S. live hand to mouth, its not difficult to surmise there will be greater unemployment numbers in the U.K. than currently, in the not very distant future.

Once U.K. government furlough payments start being reduced from the end of August, I suspect a lot of people will start losing their jobs. Especially in businesses affected by the reduction of international tourism, which accounts for roughly 10% of businesses, globally, whether directly or indirectly.
Once the furlough payments from the government end at the end of October, then we can expect to see the numbers of unemployed rise dramatically, not least if there is further contagion, will governments bring lockdown again? I suspect not - by then it'll have dawned on them that the cure is worse than the disease. And let's not forget that other countries will be affected by their own financial challenges, which can also be expected to affect markets internationally.
I've seen figures of a projected 17% dip in GDP for the U.K. being touted. Where some optimistically say that businesses will resume in the 3rd quarter. For the U.K. that may not be so likely... If it's anywhere near even half that (& will probably be more than 10%), it's going to hurt most businesses and realistically, wipe many out. Remember that many small businesses in the U.K. have had no income during the shutdown and rents, etc. remained payable. Then at the end of Aug the gov. want U.K. employers to pay NI & pension contributions with 10 & 20% contributions to wages in Sept & Oct.
A large drop in employment will have far-reaching, domino-effect consequences in the U.K. Adding to this the looming possibility of a no-deal Brexit and the uncertainties that may bring to British businesses, its not hard to imagine a lot of company bosses will be uneasy about investing in growth & taking on staff right now. They'll think of the opposite and hire later, if things return.
Of course, in some businesses such as IT & AI there will be growth, but that's a small minority.

With reduced demand, used cars will likely drop in value - although they were already low. Profit margins haven't been great; not least with weak values of Sterling. The Euro hasn't been faring much better either, but the buying power of currencies is diminished.
Selling products at below cost isn't sustainable in the long term for any viable business. So in answer to the question to this thread, when nobody is buying cars and PCP defaults being likely to become widespread, will be the best time to buy, just like housing or anything else. Christmas 2020...?

In time, once the dust has settled, there will be opportunities for growth but it's not going to be V-shaped, by any stretch.
NOURIEL ROUBINI (who correctly predicted the 2008 crisis to a tee) says this financial downturn will be L-shaped and looking at his history, he's probably right...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-ec...

Edited by Petrolism on Saturday 30th May 07:20

Audemars

507 posts

99 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Am glad the furlough scheme now has an official end date.

Let reality takes its course.

Will be amazed if car prices are not affected by summer 2021.

Edited by Audemars on Saturday 30th May 08:25

stuckmojo

2,989 posts

189 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
https://collectingcars.com/for-sale/1995-lamborghi... not sure it matters but I thought a 24k Km Diablo VT with FSH would sell for a figure well north of £132,000....

Some interesting prices on CC.

The spinner of plates

17,758 posts

201 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
For now, prices may remain as they are; there will likely be a bit of post-lockdown pent up desire making heartful decisions...
The general U.K. public who've allowed themselves to be saddled with debt up to their eyeballs at this time, are unlikely to have suddenly become particularly financially astute.

Its interesting to see that in Japan (G3 country), the government wasn't only giving a stipend to each and every person in a household during the recently lifted (1 month) lockdown, but is now looking at another payout to tourism-related businesses, in addition to grants for web-related developments in addition to a grant to all businesses, of up to around £8,000, based on equaling the best month of income in 2019. Why are they supporting businesses and not just people? Because they see that the costs & time for recovery will be a LOT higher (& could take years) if businesses close down and there are no jobs. Japan isn't a country of much household debt. The average savings per capita are $150,000...

Now compare to the U.K. and how the government is coping. How many small businesses are they supporting? What are the average savings? Much like the U.S. I would expect... What are the prospects?
Those who believe there won't be a knock-on effect, are probably those who will are in highest debt and most likely to be hit hardest (This is the same with any crash). Living in denial doesn't make a situation disappear.

Those who haven't stretched themselves too thin and have some money saved for rainy days will likely fare better, but that's normally older people, who were brought up to only get what they can afford. I feel sorry for school leavers this year. Their prospects aren't looking great...

If 40+ million in the U.S. have signed up for unemployment and at least half of the U.S. live hand to mouth, its not difficult to surmise there will be greater unemployment numbers in the U.K. than currently, in the not very distant future.

Once U.K. government furlough payments start being reduced from the end of August, I suspect a lot of people will start losing their jobs. Especially in businesses affected by the reduction of international tourism, which accounts for roughly 10% of businesses, globally, whether directly or indirectly.
Once the furlough payments from the government end at the end of October, then we can expect to see the numbers of unemployed rise dramatically, not least if there is further contagion, will governments bring lockdown again? I suspect not - by then it'll have dawned on them that the cure is worse than the disease. And let's not forget that other countries will be affected by their own financial challenges, which can also be expected to affect markets internationally.
I've seen figures of a projected 17% dip in GDP for the U.K. being touted. Where some optimistically say that businesses will resume in the 3rd quarter. For the U.K. that may not be so likely... If it's anywhere near even half that (& will probably be more than 10%), it's going to hurt most businesses and realistically, wipe many out. Remember that many small businesses in the U.K. have had no income during the shutdown and rents, etc. remained payable. Then at the end of Aug the gov. want U.K. employers to pay NI & pension contributions with 10 & 20% contributions to wages in Sept & Oct.
A large drop in employment will have far-reaching, domino-effect consequences in the U.K. Adding to this the looming possibility of a no-deal Brexit and the uncertainties that may bring to British businesses, its not hard to imagine a lot of company bosses will be uneasy about investing in growth & taking on staff right now. They'll think of the opposite and hire later, if things return.
Of course, in some businesses such as IT & AI there will be growth, but that's a small minority.

With reduced demand, used cars will likely drop in value - although they were already low. Profit margins haven't been great; not least with weak values of Sterling. The Euro hasn't been faring much better either, but the buying power of currencies is diminished.
Selling products at below cost isn't sustainable in the long term for any viable business. So in answer to the question to this thread, when nobody is buying cars and PCP defaults being likely to become widespread, will be the best time to buy, just like housing or anything else. Christmas 2020...?

In time, once the dust has settled, there will be opportunities for growth but it's not going to be V-shaped, by any stretch.
NOURIEL ROUBINI (who correctly predicted the 2008 crisis to a tee) says this financial downturn will be L-shaped and looking at his history, he's probably right...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-ec...

Edited by Petrolism on Saturday 30th May 07:20
Thanks, good post.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
BrabusMog said:
Throttlebody said:
A bit like people that think they get a PCP deposit back at the end of term.
Who thinks they're getting their PCP initial payment back laugh
Never underestimate the financial illiteracy of the average person on the street.

Throttlebody

2,348 posts

55 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
For now, prices may remain as they are; there will likely be a bit of post-lockdown pent up desire making heartful decisions...
The general U.K. public who've allowed themselves to be saddled with debt up to their eyeballs at this time, are unlikely to have suddenly become particularly financially astute.

Its interesting to see that in Japan (G3 country), the government wasn't only giving a stipend to each and every person in a household during the recently lifted (1 month) lockdown, but is now looking at another payout to tourism-related businesses, in addition to grants for web-related developments in addition to a grant to all businesses, of up to around £8,000, based on equaling the best month of income in 2019. Why are they supporting businesses and not just people? Because they see that the costs & time for recovery will be a LOT higher (& could take years) if businesses close down and there are no jobs. Japan isn't a country of much household debt. The average savings per capita are $150,000...

Now compare to the U.K. and how the government is coping. How many small businesses are they supporting? What are the average savings? Much like the U.S. I would expect... What are the prospects?
Those who believe there won't be a knock-on effect, are probably those who will are in highest debt and most likely to be hit hardest (This is the same with any crash). Living in denial doesn't make a situation disappear.

Those who haven't stretched themselves too thin and have some money saved for rainy days will likely fare better, but that's normally older people, who were brought up to only get what they can afford. I feel sorry for school leavers this year. Their prospects aren't looking great...

If 40+ million in the U.S. have signed up for unemployment and at least half of the U.S. live hand to mouth, its not difficult to surmise there will be greater unemployment numbers in the U.K. than currently, in the not very distant future.

Once U.K. government furlough payments start being reduced from the end of August, I suspect a lot of people will start losing their jobs. Especially in businesses affected by the reduction of international tourism, which accounts for roughly 10% of businesses, globally, whether directly or indirectly.
Once the furlough payments from the government end at the end of October, then we can expect to see the numbers of unemployed rise dramatically, not least if there is further contagion, will governments bring lockdown again? I suspect not - by then it'll have dawned on them that the cure is worse than the disease. And let's not forget that other countries will be affected by their own financial challenges, which can also be expected to affect markets internationally.
I've seen figures of a projected 17% dip in GDP for the U.K. being touted. Where some optimistically say that businesses will resume in the 3rd quarter. For the U.K. that may not be so likely... If it's anywhere near even half that (& will probably be more than 10%), it's going to hurt most businesses and realistically, wipe many out. Remember that many small businesses in the U.K. have had no income during the shutdown and rents, etc. remained payable. Then at the end of Aug the gov. want U.K. employers to pay NI & pension contributions with 10 & 20% contributions to wages in Sept & Oct.
A large drop in employment will have far-reaching, domino-effect consequences in the U.K. Adding to this the looming possibility of a no-deal Brexit and the uncertainties that may bring to British businesses, its not hard to imagine a lot of company bosses will be uneasy about investing in growth & taking on staff right now. They'll think of the opposite and hire later, if things return.
Of course, in some businesses such as IT & AI there will be growth, but that's a small minority.

With reduced demand, used cars will likely drop in value - although they were already low. Profit margins haven't been great; not least with weak values of Sterling. The Euro hasn't been faring much better either, but the buying power of currencies is diminished.
Selling products at below cost isn't sustainable in the long term for any viable business. So in answer to the question to this thread, when nobody is buying cars and PCP defaults being likely to become widespread, will be the best time to buy, just like housing or anything else. Christmas 2020...?

In time, once the dust has settled, there will be opportunities for growth but it's not going to be V-shaped, by any stretch.
NOURIEL ROUBINI (who correctly predicted the 2008 crisis to a tee) says this financial downturn will be L-shaped and looking at his history, he's probably right...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-ec...

Edited by Petrolism on Saturday 30th May 07:20
Good post. The Govt’s financial stimulus has, generally, insulated people from any real long term negative economic effects so far. The real pain is approaching and reality is about to strike home for the delusional. Roubini is always a good read. His prediction track record stands scrutiny.

Petrolism

457 posts

107 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Sadly, most will believe the cause of the financial crash we're headed into was Covid and that the possibility of contagion again most be eradicated.
Truth is, it started to show signs of an impending crash in the markets at the end of 2019, but it wouldn't have been acceptable to blame the banks yet again and yet again, take no prisoners.



jimPH

3,981 posts

81 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
The government are supporting businesses with bounce back loans, no payment on first year and 2.5%, max 30% of turnover. Loads of my mates have got them, they're over the moon, some have cleared debts/costly OH for a low cost loan, so things are great for a lot of people.

OddCat

2,577 posts

172 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
Sadly, most will believe the cause of the financial crash we're headed into was Covid and that the possibility of contagion again most be eradicated.

Truth is, it started to show signs of an impending crash in the markets at the end of 2019, but it wouldn't have been acceptable logical to blame the banks yet again and yet again, take no prisoners because, like last time, it was actually nothing to do with them but was as a result of structural liquidity imbalances caused by Central Bank and Regulator rules that started under Gordon Brown.

FTFY

OddCat

2,577 posts

172 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Inky81 said:
AndrewNR said:
Inky81 said:
AndrewNR said:
At what point this summer can I get that Nissan R34 GTR for £5.99?
Thanks.
August 3rd, 4.16pm.
1 month down, 2 to go. cool
Pahhahhahahahhaa rofl
Nearly there already. Prices have halved...

Deep Thought

35,919 posts

198 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
OddCat said:
Nearly there already. Prices have halved...
And there we go, yet more conclusive proof that car prices are going through the floor!

hehe

Petrolism

457 posts

107 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
Sadly, most will believe the cause of the financial crash we're headed into was Covid and that the possibility of contagion again most be eradicated.
Truth is, it started to show signs of an impending crash in the markets at the end of 2019, but it wouldn't have been acceptable to blame the banks yet again and yet again, take no prisoners.
OddCat said:
Petrolism said:
Sadly, most will believe the cause of the financial crash we're headed into was Covid and that the possibility of contagion again most be eradicated.

Truth is, it started to show signs of an impending crash in the markets at the end of 2019, but it wouldn't have been acceptable logical to blame the banks yet again and yet again, take no prisoners because, like last time, it was actually nothing to do with them but was as a result of structural liquidity imbalances caused by Central Bank and Regulator rules that started under Gordon Brown.

FTFY
That's funny... Putting words into my mouth?

...Do a little digging you'll find the U.S. investment banks sold AAA-rated loan packages to other unsuspecting banks as far back as 2006, which proved to be toxic and sparked the 2008 financial crash.

If you look a little further back, you'll clearly see that much of the QE money was used to provide cheap money for buybacks, which has (predictably) put a lot of corporations in deep water without a paddle now. Deregulation of banks and allowing them to perpetrate such fraud is not what I would call an honest way to inflate financial values. As usual, the debt trap is about to be used to confiscate financial assets and wealth.

TCX

1,976 posts

56 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Audemars said:
Am glad the furlough scheme now has an official end date.

Let reality takes its course.

Will be amazed if car prices are not affected by summer 2021.

Edited by Audemars on Saturday 30th May 08:25
If 'reality' really takes its course,car prices will be of no interest,doubt even the most secure will be so keen then

Petrolism

457 posts

107 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
... A month ago, most would say that predictions of a gloomy future were nothing but scaremongering and saying it would all be over in a few weeks.
Now it seems there's less of that and it would seem people are beginning to see what's coming?

tinyboytim

133 posts

56 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
In time, once the dust has settled, there will be opportunities for growth but it's not going to be V-shaped, by any stretch.
NOURIEL ROUBINI (who correctly predicted the 2008 crisis to a tee) says this financial downturn will be L-shaped and looking at his history, he's probably right...

Edited by Petrolism on Saturday 30th May 07:20
Very interesting, thank you for being so sagacious. And yes I did have to look up the word I was thinking of:
having or showing keen mental discernment and good judgement; wise or shrewd.

Deep Thought

35,919 posts

198 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Petrolism said:
... A month ago, most would say that predictions of a gloomy future were nothing but scaremongering and saying it would all be over in a few weeks.
Now it seems there's less of that and it would seem people are beginning to see what's coming?
I havent changed my outlook personally. Its going to be bad, but certainly not in the league of some of the predictions on here.

Butter Face

30,419 posts

161 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Audemars said:
Am glad the furlough scheme now has an official end date.

Let reality takes its course.

Will be amazed if car prices are not affected by summer 2021.

Edited by Audemars on Saturday 30th May 08:25
Well this is all dragging on a bit isn’t it rofl

First it was an instant drop, then September, now next summer.

So

26,455 posts

223 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Butter Face said:
Well this is all dragging on a bit isn’t it rofl

First it was an instant drop, then September, now next summer.
I was talking to a supercar dealer this morning who was pretty gloomy about his prospects after June.

An interesting line of conversation, given that he was trying to flog me a car. Perhaps it was a subtle way of telling me that he'd take an offer.

Actually Butters, would you mind me emailing you next week please? I need a small favour (very small).

Butter Face

30,419 posts

161 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
Sure.

Nothing but positive vibes here. Sold a couple more this weekend and looking forward to getting 2 others back this week and getting cracking on selling some cars between us!!

andymc

7,367 posts

208 months

Saturday 30th May 2020
quotequote all
I’ve had a normal month? A little down on numbers but May is usually quiet
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