Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
gizlaroc said:
Already falling fast.
I have been bombarded with texts and emails from Mercedes and BMW this week about "Never to be repeated deals this week!".
Speaking to the local dealers a few people have cancelled purchases over the last week.
Mate at Audi who works on the fleet sales side said just about every deal is on hold.
I test drove a couple of cars last weekend and was very close to buying on Tuesday but have put plans on hold. No immediate need to buy so will wait to see what happens.I have been bombarded with texts and emails from Mercedes and BMW this week about "Never to be repeated deals this week!".
Speaking to the local dealers a few people have cancelled purchases over the last week.
Mate at Audi who works on the fleet sales side said just about every deal is on hold.
People are going to stop going out, so there wont be any shortages of used cars, there just won't be any car sales, new or used.
No one is going to start buying cars when you have a combined economic meltdown plus an incurable virus on potential every surface you would touch, every car dealer you visit and every private sellers doorbell you have to ring.
No one is going to start buying cars when you have a combined economic meltdown plus an incurable virus on potential every surface you would touch, every car dealer you visit and every private sellers doorbell you have to ring.
gizlaroc said:
55palfers said:
Have forecourt prices dropped by similar amounts? I sniff a bit of profiteering
I doubt it yet. I haven't looked, I'm offloading cars not buying more.
Just had my mate from Audi on the phone asking how the last couple of days have been for me in clothing retail, couldn't cheer him up at all I'm afraid.
The reality is, most retailers over the last week are down, and down big, talking 50-75% down.
Most retailers have enough cash flow to get through one, maybe two months of paying rents, mortgages, rates, wages, electricity, phones and fibre and all the other bills that carry on even if business is not.
Doesn't matter how big you are, in fact the bigger you are the more a downturn can really hit and hit you far quicker.
Same for cafes, coffee shops, restaurants.
Same for those in the entertainment industry, be that cinema, theatre, concerts or those running the massive shows and events that go on every day with 100,000s of customers going through the doors at The N.E.C and the 100s of other venues around the globe.
Then we have the sporting events, the money that is generated for everyone when football match is on, many make their living off the footfall on match day, plus all those involved in the running of the stadium itself.
What about those working in public transport getting everyone to the stores, restaurants, sporting events and business shows? No real need for them if no one is going anywhere.
The problem we have at the moment is 99% of those who are employed will have absolutely no idea just how desperately tight things are getting until the bosses tell them.
What will they tell them? Could be "We have got to let you go" or "We have got to reduce your hours down by 50% of 75%".
It is only then that the reality of this will hit home, it is then that many will think long and hard about the new PCP or contract hire they have signed, it is then they will think "Do I really need to change my car. Maybe I just need to hand it back and buy something older for cash."
By the way, he did just say "I hope many with new orders don't realise they have a 14 day cooling off period".
Something to remember folks.
Back in 2010 I bought a 3 year old A6 3.2 Quattro Avant from Peterborough Audi for £13k down from £23k.
They had too many cars for their forecourt, they had 54 trade in coming in and not sold anything used for 8 weeks, and they also had new cars that customers had cancelled coming in. They just needed to move metal whatever the hit.
Will we see that again? Who knows?
But the reality is, if we go in lock down will the company you work for still be there when it is lifted? If so, will you be able to afford your monthlies or if paid for, will that nice car sat on the drive be worth more to you in your bank?
I think the only saving grace for dealers is this has not happened just before the new regs. That could have seen them hit far harder. September will be very interesting.
Certainly could be a good time for buying a car... running a cheap shed myself and waiting for the right moment to upgrade to something a bit nicer.
I well remember the 2008 financial crash and all those supercars going for buttons..wasn't it about that time that Harry Metcalfe bought his Countach? Shrewd fellow...
Hopefully some of the recently unattainable (for people like me) modern classics will reach more affordable levels. Stuff like DC2 Integras, 205GTIs and so on and so forth...
I well remember the 2008 financial crash and all those supercars going for buttons..wasn't it about that time that Harry Metcalfe bought his Countach? Shrewd fellow...
Hopefully some of the recently unattainable (for people like me) modern classics will reach more affordable levels. Stuff like DC2 Integras, 205GTIs and so on and so forth...
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.
This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
This not what happened in the 2008 financial crisis – used prices collapsed and took a year to recover. I don't see why this is different.This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
Vroomer said:
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.
This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
This not what happened in the 2008 financial crisis – used prices collapsed and took a year to recover. I don't see why this is different.This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
I remember selling a very well sorted E46 M3 with all the right CSL bits for just over £6k in 2008/9, today I think the same car would be around £12k+. Doh!
av185 said:
The new car market will essentially grind to a halt resulting in a severe shortage of quality used stock.
This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
Until last week I would have agreed with this - 260,000 mile 2013 transit for 2700quid anyone?This has been apparant through Jan Feb and March as quality used 3 year old cars have risen in value up to 10%.
To counteract this rise and going forward buyers will have less to spend and confidence will take a hit so broadly strong prices will be maintained and there won't be the bargains around some are hoping for.
As ever the best cars will command the best prices both mainstream and high end.
However the world is now fast becoming very different. Confidence at all positions in the market will freefall as both businesses and private buyers all defer big purchase decisions. Dealer stocking charges will rise and the stock will become toxic.
The issues at play are macro not micro.
Venisonpie said:
Until last week I would have agreed with this - 260,000 mile 2013 transit for 2700quid anyone?
However the world is now fast becoming very different. Confidence at all positions in the market will freefall as both businesses and private buyers all defer big purchase decisions. Dealer stocking charges will rise and the stock will become toxic.
The issues at play are macro not micro.
Agree totally. However the world is now fast becoming very different. Confidence at all positions in the market will freefall as both businesses and private buyers all defer big purchase decisions. Dealer stocking charges will rise and the stock will become toxic.
The issues at play are macro not micro.
This week is very, very different to last week.
The reality is though that 90% of the UK have not realised just how bad it is yet.
Unless you run the company, see the books, understand the overheads, why would you?
It will take 4-8 weeks for it to truly hit home.
Of course we have many in the public sector who will never get it and wonder what everyone is moaning about. They get paid no matter what. They will always shout "It's all doom and gloom".
The reality of what is happening now is very different and imho far worse than 2009.
av185 said:
Meanwhile across the pond the Dow Jones is up 10%.
Mate, looking at your garage.....Current cars 911 991.2 GT3 manual clubsport, Ferrari 458 Italia, 911 997 GTS PDK coupe, 981 Spyder, 981 GT4, 718 GT4 due (poss RS), 911 991.2 GT2 RS PDK due at some point
I don't think you are where the majority of the country are.
Highstreet retail, tourism, sports, entertainment, concerts and festivals, trade fairs, airlines, hotels -- all totally farked for at least 6 months. And globally, at more or less the exact same time. Think this will make a big dent in consumer and business confidence which in turn will reduce demand for luxury items (such as cars) and worse slow down investment dramatically. Who knows how bad it will get, but I doubt it's going to be less bad than 08/09.
US stocks might be up briefly because the orange guy has decided to finally do something, but everything is so volatile right now. Think it's safe to assume that no matter what, most countries will go through something close to the scale of what Italy is enduring, and US likely to be worse than China. Took the Chinese about three months to stabilize so that's at least until mid June of really bad news for the worlds leading economy. On top of that, countless US citizens soon to default on loans if measures aren't taken. No healthcare, no employee rights...
IMO car buying isn't going to be a priority for many over the next weeks...
US stocks might be up briefly because the orange guy has decided to finally do something, but everything is so volatile right now. Think it's safe to assume that no matter what, most countries will go through something close to the scale of what Italy is enduring, and US likely to be worse than China. Took the Chinese about three months to stabilize so that's at least until mid June of really bad news for the worlds leading economy. On top of that, countless US citizens soon to default on loans if measures aren't taken. No healthcare, no employee rights...
IMO car buying isn't going to be a priority for many over the next weeks...
Financially, were heading towards a global recession. Travel and tourist industries have already been severely hit. If the schools close, parents will have to stay at home, so will lose earnings. Less money in people's pockets. The retail sector is already on it's knees and will now start to crumble. The markets have crashed and whilst they will stabilise it will take a while for them to recover.
So yes, car prices will fall as demand falls
So yes, car prices will fall as demand falls
gizlaroc said:
av185 said:
Meanwhile across the pond the Dow Jones is up 10%.
Mate, looking at your garage.....Current cars 911 991.2 GT3 manual clubsport, Ferrari 458 Italia, 911 997 GTS PDK coupe, 981 Spyder, 981 GT4, 718 GT4 due (poss RS), 911 991.2 GT2 RS PDK due at some point
I don't think you are where the majority of the country are.
The key now is how the government's fiscal support plays out and how many people stay in work. I reckon my own position is a 50/50 case and am already planning for a bumpy 12 months, luckily my debt is relatively low and manageable.
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