Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
growlerowl said:
I think you're sort of deliberately missing the point here, which is that the *best case scenario* is some kind of comparable normality in a few years' time. Since none of us can predict the future, we can't rule out the possibility we might get something considerably worse. Again all I can go on is what economists etc are saying, and if you can show me alternative analysis please do. I think it was Keynes that said when the facts change I change my mind or something like that. Also worth pointing out that history shows us pretty much without exception that economies are far, far more easily burnt down in bad times than they are built back up in good.
Of course it "could" be considerably worse and thus why we as an economy should be working towards ensuring it doesnt rather that believing its inevitable.And yes, i totally believe in facts altering my viewpoint, however quoting what is being seen right now, in the middle of a lockdown as "facts" and therefore evidence that its going to be really s
tty forever is simply wrong. No cars sold in May != no cars sold ever again. Tesla with "some" online sales in May v next to no bricks and mortar sales != a massive swing to electric cars via online sales. McDonalds selling next to zero burgers in May != McDonalds never selling burgers again.Also views and opinions - even if from reputable sources are not "facts". They may come to pass, they may not but they are not "facts".
And finally, one set of figures does not make a trend.
And to reiterate - yes its going to be s
tty, but it wont always be stty. Life will return to a reasonable level or normality at some point. Some people will be badly impacted, most people will be somewhat impacted. Quantifying that right now? Who knows. Making sure we're on the right side of that line is what we all need to aim for.I cant be clearer about that - if you want to continue to interpret that as me being ridiculously optimistic thats frankly your problem.
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 14:57
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 15:00
jsf said:
The most interesting sector will be company cars, with the shift to WFM looking like a long term outcome, we may find people pulling out of the company car scheme and asking for the equivalent in pay.
Doesnt that form part of "fleet sales" and doesnt that also include leased cars and privately leased cars (as they're usually bought through a fleet purchase)?Or is there a separate figure available?
Thankyou4calling said:
“Strong” isn’t a figure.
I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
That's a great game. I was thinking about it while preparing my bike for tonight's ride just now. I concluded with a - 40% compared to June 19. So not far from your guess amusingly. But in fairness, I don't know, it is a stab in the dark. I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
Not sure how many times it's been mentioned in the 310 pages so far, but prices of cars (and other things) - new or used - are all determined by supply and demand.
New cars:
supply in 2020 will be reduced because of unplanned factory closures
demand in 2020 is less clear but reduced disposable income for individuals and companies would suggest reduced demand.
What we don't know is which of these will be greater and it will affect different makes, sizes and fuel types in different ways
Used cars:
This will vary greatly between nearly new and very old.
supply will reduce as fewer new cars lead to fewer p/x
demand will reduce as per new cars and also due to more working from home (or not working at all), but there will be some instances where there will be switching from public transport to car, which is increased demand
Again, what we don't know is which reduction will be greater.
My advice - if in doubt, stick with what you've got until it becomes clearer - June will be distorted by playing catch up so don't read much into it; October is the end of Furlough and we'll then see who's got the money to buy a new or used car.
New cars:
supply in 2020 will be reduced because of unplanned factory closures
demand in 2020 is less clear but reduced disposable income for individuals and companies would suggest reduced demand.
What we don't know is which of these will be greater and it will affect different makes, sizes and fuel types in different ways
Used cars:
This will vary greatly between nearly new and very old.
supply will reduce as fewer new cars lead to fewer p/x
demand will reduce as per new cars and also due to more working from home (or not working at all), but there will be some instances where there will be switching from public transport to car, which is increased demand
Again, what we don't know is which reduction will be greater.
My advice - if in doubt, stick with what you've got until it becomes clearer - June will be distorted by playing catch up so don't read much into it; October is the end of Furlough and we'll then see who's got the money to buy a new or used car.
I am not in the trade or in the know, just your average Joe. I said several pages ago back in April (When Sunak announced the Furlough scheme), that prices won't drop until September. Now that furlough has been somewhat extended from the initial 3 months (March,April, May) to the end of August, plus the additional schemes like payment / mortgage holidays till October, I am still predicting used car prices to drop by at least 20%, but won't be until winter. I'm guessing December / January / February will be where we see this.
Nobody will see bargains in June. Mass redundancies at a large scale across many industries will hit in September.
Nobody will see bargains in June. Mass redundancies at a large scale across many industries will hit in September.
Edited by Sevenon on Thursday 4th June 15:30
nickfrog said:
Thankyou4calling said:
“Strong” isn’t a figure.
I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
That's a great game. I was thinking about it while preparing my bike for tonight's ride just now. I concluded with a - 40% compared to June 19. So not far from your guess amusingly. But in fairness, I don't know, it is a stab in the dark. I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
Inky81 said:
nickfrog said:
Thankyou4calling said:
“Strong” isn’t a figure.
I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
That's a great game. I was thinking about it while preparing my bike for tonight's ride just now. I concluded with a - 40% compared to June 19. So not far from your guess amusingly. But in fairness, I don't know, it is a stab in the dark. I’m going for 160,000 so markedly down on last year.
You?
Throttlebody said:
Welshbeef said:
Car sales for the month of May official on news now down 89%
Obviously another distorted month, but interestingly the biggest seller was the Tesla Model 3. People embracing Tesla’s mode of selling. Cutting out some of the nause of that traditional dealer and salesmen interface.It’s be interesting to know, of those sales how many were private purchases and how many were for company car schemes. Ours is run by a third party. Most of the recent orders / deliveries have been electric cars with the e-Golf proving popular amongst my colleagues following the changes to BIK.
Deep Thought said:
growlerowl said:
I think you're sort of deliberately missing the point here, which is that the *best case scenario* is some kind of comparable normality in a few years' time. Since none of us can predict the future, we can't rule out the possibility we might get something considerably worse. Again all I can go on is what economists etc are saying, and if you can show me alternative analysis please do. I think it was Keynes that said when the facts change I change my mind or something like that. Also worth pointing out that history shows us pretty much without exception that economies are far, far more easily burnt down in bad times than they are built back up in good.
Of course it "could" be considerably worse and thus why we as an economy should be working towards ensuring it doesnt rather that believing its inevitable.And yes, i totally believe in facts altering my viewpoint, however quoting what is being seen right now, in the middle of a lockdown as "facts" and therefore evidence that its going to be really s
tty forever is simply wrong. No cars sold in May != no cars sold ever again. Tesla with "some" online sales in May v next to no bricks and mortar sales != a massive swing to electric cars via online sales. McDonalds selling next to zero burgers in May != McDonalds never selling burgers again.Also views and opinions - even if from reputable sources are not "facts". They may come to pass, they may not but they are not "facts".
And finally, one set of figures does not make a trend.
And to reiterate - yes its going to be s
tty, but it wont always be stty. Life will return to a reasonable level or normality at some point. Some people will be badly impacted, most people will be somewhat impacted. Quantifying that right now? Who knows. Making sure we're on the right side of that line is what we all need to aim for.I cant be clearer about that - if you want to continue to interpret that as me being ridiculously optimistic thats frankly your problem.
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 14:57
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 15:00
The title of the thread is "will Coronavirus hit used prices" - where do you stand on that straight forward question? Yes or no? As to the extent that it will impact prices no one knows, but if we're all agreed that prices will be impacted negatively, we're on the same page
I expect a "it'll be bad but not the end of the world" reply.
Sevenon said:
I am not in the trade or in the know, just your average Joe. I said several pages ago back in April (When Sunak announced the Furlough scheme), that prices won't drop until September. Now that furlough has been somewhat extended from the initial 3 months (March,April, May) to the end of August, plus the additional schemes like payment / mortgage holidays till October, I am still predicting used car prices to drop by at least 20%, but won't be until winter. I'm guessing December / January / February will be where we see this.
Nobody will see bargains in June. Mass redundancies at a large scale across many industries will hit in September.
This is my view also.Nobody will see bargains in June. Mass redundancies at a large scale across many industries will hit in September.
Edited by Sevenon on Thursday 4th June 15:30
We're in such a weird limbo stage at the moment.
maz8062 said:
No, you are as clear as mud as usual
The title of the thread is "will Coronavirus hit used prices" - where do you stand on that straight forward question? Yes or no? As to the extent that it will impact prices no one knows, but if we're all agreed that prices will be impacted negatively, we're on the same page
I expect a "it'll be bad but not the end of the world" reply.
Yes. The title of the thread is "will Coronavirus hit used prices" - where do you stand on that straight forward question? Yes or no? As to the extent that it will impact prices no one knows, but if we're all agreed that prices will be impacted negatively, we're on the same page
I expect a "it'll be bad but not the end of the world" reply.
I believe prices will remain firm initially, but September onwards will tell the tale. Perhaps a 10% drop then onwards.
How more specific do you expect anyone to be?
My other comments related to life generally - i thought you were following that?
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 16:04
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 16:07
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 16:07
Deep Thought said:
maz8062 said:
No, you are as clear as mud as usual
The title of the thread is "will Coronavirus hit used prices" - where do you stand on that straight forward question? Yes or no? As to the extent that it will impact prices no one knows, but if we're all agreed that prices will be impacted negatively, we're on the same page
I expect a "it'll be bad but not the end of the world" reply.
As was answered many times probably 200 pages back and seems to be a firm consensus - prices will remain firm initially, but September onwards will tell the tale.The title of the thread is "will Coronavirus hit used prices" - where do you stand on that straight forward question? Yes or no? As to the extent that it will impact prices no one knows, but if we're all agreed that prices will be impacted negatively, we're on the same page
I expect a "it'll be bad but not the end of the world" reply.
I'm not seeing any significant drops in any cars i'm folllowing on AT, and at the trade auction online that i follow prices are quite firm with a lot of active bidding.
How more specific do you expect anyone to be?
Edited by Deep Thought on Thursday 4th June 16:00
I hope you're right, or I'll have what your drinking
In some ways i'd be surprised to see any drop? I mean we've had a 1/6th of a year with next to no sales possible, those two months of normal sales must still be largely pent up ones, so if we get say the same figures it means we've have approx a 1/3 sales rate for the three months (taking massive averages here but just trying to make a point?) We'd need approx x3 the normal June sales to catch up for April/May? (assuming approx same monthly sales rates etc)
It's obviously not so easy to generalise, but I'd say if we don't at least match last June it's quite significant as if we can't even make that figure despite 2 months of nearly nil sales then it looks concerning?
It's obviously not so easy to generalise, but I'd say if we don't at least match last June it's quite significant as if we can't even make that figure despite 2 months of nearly nil sales then it looks concerning?
Scootersp said:
In some ways i'd be surprised to see any drop? I mean we've had a 1/6th of a year with next to no sales possible, those two months of normal sales must still be largely pent up ones, so if we get say the same figures it means we've have approx a 1/3 sales rate for the three months (taking massive averages here but just trying to make a point?) We'd need approx x3 the normal June sales to catch up for April/May? (assuming approx same monthly sales rates etc)
It's obviously not so easy to generalise, but I'd say if we don't at least match last June it's quite significant as if we can't even make that figure despite 2 months of nearly nil sales then it looks concerning?
I wonder if it might have to get to the bankruptcies stage in order for prices to drop. Dealers clearly not intent on giving an inch, in fact apparently the opposite given they are reportedly low-balling on px whilst keep sticker price unchanged.It's obviously not so easy to generalise, but I'd say if we don't at least match last June it's quite significant as if we can't even make that figure despite 2 months of nearly nil sales then it looks concerning?
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Your head full of theatre again? You do know there is more than one EV model for sale in the UK and they are all eligible for 0% BIK. Tesla out sold the Fiesta. Point worth making.I would imagine Tesla sold more cars than McDonalds did burgers in May, but that doesnt mean there wont be a demand for McDonalds - as proven already with the "pent up demand" we're seeing at their drive throughs.
You really really need to stop looking at one off statistics based on a shut down market and then projecting that out as a trend.
Quite enjoying your ‘Burgernomics’. Interesting that you feel you need to use a burger analogy to get a point across.
maz8062 said:
So, your back of a fag packet answer is that prices will NOT be impacted? Large scale redundancies, huge govt debt, uncertainty around Brexit and 7m people on Furlough will not in your view have any impact on prices?
I hope you're right, or I'll have what your drinking
Apologies - i changed my answer when i'd more time.I hope you're right, or I'll have what your drinking
Prices firm initially, dropping by probably 10%, starting September ish.
Purely speculation though.
Throttlebody said:
Deep Thought said:
Throttlebody said:
Your head full of theatre again? You do know there is more than one EV model for sale in the UK and they are all eligible for 0% BIK. Tesla out sold the Fiesta. Point worth making.I would imagine Tesla sold more cars than McDonalds did burgers in May, but that doesnt mean there wont be a demand for McDonalds - as proven already with the "pent up demand" we're seeing at their drive throughs.
You really really need to stop looking at one off statistics based on a shut down market and then projecting that out as a trend.
Quite enjoying your ‘Burgernomics’. Interesting that you feel you need to use a burger analogy to get a point across.
The point made was that sales of BEV's has increased because of tax incentives, not because of a market shift, their business model or anything else.
The 'fact' Tesla's performed relatively well (compared to others) in a month where traditional routes to market were shut doesn't tell us a whole lot.
growlerowl said:
I wonder if it might have to get to the bankruptcies stage in order for prices to drop. Dealers clearly not intent on giving an inch, in fact apparently the opposite given they are reportedly low-balling on px whilst keep sticker price unchanged.
I think unfortunately some have to suffer, if you can weather the storm better than others then you might come out rosy, it's an unfortunate consequence that in order to survive in an affected industry you'll probably need others to drop by the wayside, every competitor that fails makes your recovery chances better? Up until now price drops were arguably pointless as you wouldn't have increased footfall or sales much if at all, from now on, as the weeks go by, there is a chance a few might go for the slight undercutting and if demand does drops and/or stays low then it 'could' cause others to follow through necessity. They're just seeing what happens I suspect at the moment, no point in throwing money away if demand does turn out to be strong?
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