Will Coronavirus hit used car prices?
Discussion
GT3Manthey said:
robsco said:
Auto Trader have allowed us free advertising for the month of April. I have had a week of peace and quiet, no customers walking through the door which has allowed me to catch up on my digital presence before we closed the doors. Every new and used car we have on stock is now online, people are sat at home on the Internet. We have had used car email enquiries.
Good for you glad to hear people are still looking to buy once we are out of Lockdown. Good luck going forward
Bathroom_Security said:
Something slightly different maybe. I've had my eye on the Lotus Elise S2 and Exige S2 market for months.
Basically in the last week at least theres been nothing new come on the market. Seloc normally has 30ish cars in the classifieds. Now has under 20.
Cool story
Again those on Seloc are enthusiasts and won't sell their cars at knock down prices to forum warriors. Basically in the last week at least theres been nothing new come on the market. Seloc normally has 30ish cars in the classifieds. Now has under 20.
Cool story
They have a good community on there
suffolk009 said:
I've just found this thread. It's interesting skimming it from the start. Predictions have fairly quickly become more extreme - whatever your angle.
I've long wondered what will happen to the price of vintage/pre-war cars. These cars appeal to an almost entirely older generation. I occasionally go along to a monthly get together at a local pub. 99% of the owners are well into their retirement, have generally owned their cars for many years and don't really want to sell or buy another one. It's their weekend fun - they might own an old Merc SL and a Range Rover as well. Eventually an estate sale will find the cars a new owner. There's fairly little market churn on them. Very sadly those estate sales may now be happening sooner, given the demographics of the victims of this virus.
I think the prices of the super rare cars will hold up(ish). There are only so many GTOs, F1s, DB4GTs. Ordinary Ferraris, Aston, Lambos etc will fall in real terms. A few very special Porsches might survive, the majority will crash (which is a shame as my wife has a very ordinary Porsche). Many of those cars are in an investment bubble fuelled by loans. If you buy a car 20% down, then you'll not want to get into negative equity on them.
More ordinary classics, old Lotus, MGs, ordinary Fords, etc., in the £10k to 40k price range are more likely to be owned outright and people might have two or more. They'll be sold if the owner needs to raise cash. Many will.
This recession, like others, will mean a tightening of credit for most, and a shortage of cash. Both those lead to distress sales - at lower prices.
Of course, all this talk of falling prices is likely to just be relative. The amount of money that central banks around the world are printing and shoving into the economy will be a huge inflationary pressure on even the most carefully managed economy. We may well get to see across the board inflation rates not seen since the 70s.
But I have no idea really. I'm not a specialist. Please don't take my advice.
I sold a very nice 1929 Riley Special just a few weeks ago. Very lucky now as I reflect on where we are right now...I've long wondered what will happen to the price of vintage/pre-war cars. These cars appeal to an almost entirely older generation. I occasionally go along to a monthly get together at a local pub. 99% of the owners are well into their retirement, have generally owned their cars for many years and don't really want to sell or buy another one. It's their weekend fun - they might own an old Merc SL and a Range Rover as well. Eventually an estate sale will find the cars a new owner. There's fairly little market churn on them. Very sadly those estate sales may now be happening sooner, given the demographics of the victims of this virus.
I think the prices of the super rare cars will hold up(ish). There are only so many GTOs, F1s, DB4GTs. Ordinary Ferraris, Aston, Lambos etc will fall in real terms. A few very special Porsches might survive, the majority will crash (which is a shame as my wife has a very ordinary Porsche). Many of those cars are in an investment bubble fuelled by loans. If you buy a car 20% down, then you'll not want to get into negative equity on them.
More ordinary classics, old Lotus, MGs, ordinary Fords, etc., in the £10k to 40k price range are more likely to be owned outright and people might have two or more. They'll be sold if the owner needs to raise cash. Many will.
This recession, like others, will mean a tightening of credit for most, and a shortage of cash. Both those lead to distress sales - at lower prices.
Of course, all this talk of falling prices is likely to just be relative. The amount of money that central banks around the world are printing and shoving into the economy will be a huge inflationary pressure on even the most carefully managed economy. We may well get to see across the board inflation rates not seen since the 70s.
But I have no idea really. I'm not a specialist. Please don't take my advice.
The PreWar market is very narrow and specialised. They are not easy to sell for strong money. I think right now the Classic market has stalled.
Dealers are still kite flying with huge prices. Unless they have a meaty cash surplus tucked away then they're going to go bust in short order. The world has done an economic U turn in literally days. We are now in a new place.
This dude might want to knock a zero off his asking price. Words fail me. He must be on class A. The whole global economy is in meltdown and old cars are not top of the need list.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1065970
I don't see this 100k mile car making 50 grand. They missed the boat. It's how it goes...
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsche/911-g...
I have a few esoteric classics but I'm not concerned about their value. I'm not selling. But I can't see how prices will remain up when the economy has gone to total $hit.
Footnote - I fancy a 911 3.2 RHD Speedster. No rush. I'll pull the trigger when or if prices properly soften.
Edited by W11PEL on Saturday 28th March 21:26
Did people think, even before Covid, that that Gemballa was worth any kind of money?! What a monstrosity... It looked s
te back then, and age hasn't treated it kindly.
On the thread topic -- I think it's pretty early days to figure out what the general economic impact and by extension the car market will look like in a few months. Cautious 50k foot crystal balling -- disruption is at least a magnitude bigger that 08. But economic stimulus packages seem to be scaled up as well.
Think the new(ish) car side will take a *big* hit though. To normal people, vehicles will be very low on the priorities list for some while. And they will finally realize that what ever they are running now is almost as good as what they would have replaced it with in normal times. Industry is pretty lucky it could switch so many to renting, this will bring some (involuntary) new business -- but those will also look long and hard at options.
Guess: scrappage schemes 2.0 incoming for fall/winter 2020. But with a little green paint added -- dump your ICE, get xk GBP if you move to a (PH)EV.
te back then, and age hasn't treated it kindly.On the thread topic -- I think it's pretty early days to figure out what the general economic impact and by extension the car market will look like in a few months. Cautious 50k foot crystal balling -- disruption is at least a magnitude bigger that 08. But economic stimulus packages seem to be scaled up as well.
Think the new(ish) car side will take a *big* hit though. To normal people, vehicles will be very low on the priorities list for some while. And they will finally realize that what ever they are running now is almost as good as what they would have replaced it with in normal times. Industry is pretty lucky it could switch so many to renting, this will bring some (involuntary) new business -- but those will also look long and hard at options.
Guess: scrappage schemes 2.0 incoming for fall/winter 2020. But with a little green paint added -- dump your ICE, get xk GBP if you move to a (PH)EV.
MG CHRIS said:
Well my mk1 mx5 vr ltd jap import will be up for sale when we back from a lock down was actually planning on selling in april to raise funds for a mortgage later on in the year this couldn't have come at a worse time. Will just have to see what happens when its all over.
House pries may also fall in real terms.W11PEL said:
I sold a very nice 1929 Riley Special just a few weeks ago. Very lucky now as I reflect on where we are right now...
The PreWar market is very narrow and specialised. They are not easy to sell for strong money. I think right now the Classic market has stalled.
Dealers are still kite flying with huge prices. Unless they have a meaty cash surplus tucked away then they're going to go bust in short order. The world has done an economic U turn in literally days. We are now in a new place.
This dude might want to knock a zero off his asking price. Words fail me. He must be on class A. The whole global economy is in meltdown and old cars are not top of the need list.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1065970
Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?
I don't see this 100k mile car making 50 grand. They missed the boat. It's how it goes...
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsche/911-g...
I have a few esoteric classics but I'm not concerned about their value. I'm not selling. But I can't see how prices will remain up when the economy has gone to total $hit.
Footnote - I fancy a 911 3.2 RHD Speedster. No rush. I'll pull the trigger when or if prices properly soften.
The PreWar market is very narrow and specialised. They are not easy to sell for strong money. I think right now the Classic market has stalled.
Dealers are still kite flying with huge prices. Unless they have a meaty cash surplus tucked away then they're going to go bust in short order. The world has done an economic U turn in literally days. We are now in a new place.
This dude might want to knock a zero off his asking price. Words fail me. He must be on class A. The whole global economy is in meltdown and old cars are not top of the need list.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1065970
Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?
I don't see this 100k mile car making 50 grand. They missed the boat. It's how it goes...
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsche/911-g...
I have a few esoteric classics but I'm not concerned about their value. I'm not selling. But I can't see how prices will remain up when the economy has gone to total $hit.
Footnote - I fancy a 911 3.2 RHD Speedster. No rush. I'll pull the trigger when or if prices properly soften.
Edited by W11PEL on Saturday 28th March 21:26
Vroomer said:
gizlaroc said:
More are being added but less are selling.
The private sales dropped below 100k the other day.
Now down to 32000.
Yup, private 32K. So why do dealers think it is worth putting up cars that nobody is allowed to travel to see and most showrooms are shut down anyway?The private sales dropped below 100k the other day.
Now down to 32000.
Vroomer said:
Yup, private 32K. So why do dealers think it is worth putting up cars that nobody is allowed to travel to see and most showrooms are shut down anyway?
Dealers can deliver. Video walk around, ask loads of questions, maybe even px what's on your drive. A neighbour has chopped in his S7 for a Tesla in the last week, Tesla arrived on a transporter, S7 put on it.
Don't be so narrow minded. Life does, and will, go on.
Most bit not all dealers are doing deals ready for post apocalypse pickup.
Im not sure if this has been picked up on earlier in the thread but a spanner in the works for anyone looking for a bargain dealers have a problem....we can't buy stock. Right at the moment that's a bigger issue for me than worrying about what I've already got in.
If you want a top tip I think you have more chance of getting a good deal done now while we are in lockdown. As soon as restrictions are lifted all the dealers are going to be cleared out and there will be a severe shortage of used and new cars until the system gets going again. I already have several waiting to go and will be working flat out 7 days a week when we get back to it. I can see pent up demand building already.
That said I think some top end stuff will soften as powefully built directors look to repair their businesses. A lot depends on the lockdown length. If it's a month you'll be paying more than pre lockdown if its 3 months the sutuation may be different.
Im not sure if this has been picked up on earlier in the thread but a spanner in the works for anyone looking for a bargain dealers have a problem....we can't buy stock. Right at the moment that's a bigger issue for me than worrying about what I've already got in.
If you want a top tip I think you have more chance of getting a good deal done now while we are in lockdown. As soon as restrictions are lifted all the dealers are going to be cleared out and there will be a severe shortage of used and new cars until the system gets going again. I already have several waiting to go and will be working flat out 7 days a week when we get back to it. I can see pent up demand building already.
That said I think some top end stuff will soften as powefully built directors look to repair their businesses. A lot depends on the lockdown length. If it's a month you'll be paying more than pre lockdown if its 3 months the sutuation may be different.
Ferodocastrol said:
CRA1G said:
Ferodocastrol said:
CAP book and brick mobile was the life I wanted back then at Measham BCA, I was envious of those with a 'bricky n cap' (Just coined that) but even then I may have a had a better idea than the CAP book from autotrader alone, much better eaiser now to get an idea of the mkt online and of course bid online.
BCA Measham,those were the days.... I can go back further "Glass's and pager" and Tom Hartley at every sale swanking about....
Talking of the "brick" I bought my first one in 1984..a Mobria Cityman (still got it in the loft) which I paid £2000 for....
Sheepshanks said:
This episode might mean dealers will at last learn to use email! 
Haha, stranger things! I don't know why they include email as a way to contact them. I reckon I get a reply from 1 in 5 and often days later not answering any thing asked, usually saying "Pop in and see us".
Macron said:
Dealers can deliver. Video walk around, ask loads of questions, maybe even px what's on your drive.
A neighbour has chopped in his S7 for a Tesla in the last week, Tesla arrived on a transporter, S7 put on it.
Don't be so narrow minded. Life does, and will, go on.
Definitely. I've seen a few 991 Gt3's sell in this last weekA neighbour has chopped in his S7 for a Tesla in the last week, Tesla arrived on a transporter, S7 put on it.
Don't be so narrow minded. Life does, and will, go on.
[quote=suffolk009][quote=W11PEL]
I sold a very nice 1929 Riley Special just a few weeks ago. Very lucky now as I reflect on where we are right now...
The PreWar market is very narrow and specialised. They are not easy to sell for strong money. I think right now the Classic market has stalled.
Dealers are still kite flying with huge prices. Unless they have a meaty cash surplus tucked away then they're going to go bust in short order. The world has done an economic U turn in literally days. We are now in a new place.
This dude might want to knock a zero off his asking price. Words fail me. He must be on class A. The whole global economy is in meltdown and old cars are not top of the need list.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1065970
Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?
I don't see this 100k mile car making 50 grand. They missed the boat. It's how it goes...
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsche/911-g...
I have a few esoteric classics but I'm not concerned about their value. I'm not selling. But I can't see how prices will remain up when the economy has gone to total $hit.
Footnote - I fancy a 911 3.2 RHD Speedster. No rush. I'll pull the trigger when or if prices properly soften.
"Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?"
The 964RS LHD was a track slag in the very early noughties. Like the original M3/late Integrale they are good news. Or they were.
That aside we now have a disconnect. How much is a cup of water worth to a man dying of thirst in the desert??!!
Some owners of nice cars are financially padded. Some will have businesses that will need propping up and will have to sell. Try ringing up a dealer today and see what he'll give you for your V12 E type coupe or Ferrari Daytona!
I suspect all luxury asset classes will be taking a kicking.
From reading the press this lockdown may go onto June. Or they're tell us June and let us out in May. That old chestnut.. but that's another story.
I think the Classic Car market this year should be considered closed for business.
You can't even view! Unless of course you the know the car and seller.
I sold a very nice 1929 Riley Special just a few weeks ago. Very lucky now as I reflect on where we are right now...
The PreWar market is very narrow and specialised. They are not easy to sell for strong money. I think right now the Classic market has stalled.
Dealers are still kite flying with huge prices. Unless they have a meaty cash surplus tucked away then they're going to go bust in short order. The world has done an economic U turn in literally days. We are now in a new place.
This dude might want to knock a zero off his asking price. Words fail me. He must be on class A. The whole global economy is in meltdown and old cars are not top of the need list.
https://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C1065970
Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?
I don't see this 100k mile car making 50 grand. They missed the boat. It's how it goes...
https://www.classicdriver.com/en/car/porsche/911-g...
I have a few esoteric classics but I'm not concerned about their value. I'm not selling. But I can't see how prices will remain up when the economy has gone to total $hit.
Footnote - I fancy a 911 3.2 RHD Speedster. No rush. I'll pull the trigger when or if prices properly soften.
"Maybe those 964RS unicorns will be back in the £20ks?"
The 964RS LHD was a track slag in the very early noughties. Like the original M3/late Integrale they are good news. Or they were.
That aside we now have a disconnect. How much is a cup of water worth to a man dying of thirst in the desert??!!
Some owners of nice cars are financially padded. Some will have businesses that will need propping up and will have to sell. Try ringing up a dealer today and see what he'll give you for your V12 E type coupe or Ferrari Daytona!
I suspect all luxury asset classes will be taking a kicking.
From reading the press this lockdown may go onto June. Or they're tell us June and let us out in May. That old chestnut.. but that's another story.
I think the Classic Car market this year should be considered closed for business.
You can't even view! Unless of course you the know the car and seller.
They have allowed for furloughed wages until the end of May so June seems to fit quite well, I would say it’s more likely to be extended than shortened, some models predicting social distancing (not ‘lockdown’ measures until late 2021....
If this is the case here and in Europe , just how long until there isn’t a single new car for dealers to sell? (From the stock list, obviously not physically at the dealer) Must be getting there now.
What will the result be to used prices if a new PCP etc won’t come in for 6 months + as people scramble to get production going again.
If this is the case here and in Europe , just how long until there isn’t a single new car for dealers to sell? (From the stock list, obviously not physically at the dealer) Must be getting there now.
What will the result be to used prices if a new PCP etc won’t come in for 6 months + as people scramble to get production going again.
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