Do diesel and petrol have any future?
Discussion
With the future currently being electric how long is the expected lifespan of petrol and diesel fuel.There is a new housing estate of up tp 700 houses being built over the road from me.On land opposite this on the lower rd on the isle of Sheppey the a2500 and supposedly to serve this estate a piece of adjacent land has been allocated for a petrol station so someone is at least hoping that it will be around for a while.I have no doubt it will include charging stations as well but if it is anything like the other developments in this area ie Aldi distribution centre,Aldi flagship store and Lidl it will have to go through at least 2 appeals before it gets final approval since Swale council will probably fight it tooth and nail and still lose.
Well those new build houses should all (well at least those that have allocated parking) have a 7kW charger installed as per Approved Document S, so charging won’t be a problem for those inhabitants as and when they need it. Housebuilders seem very good at avoiding compliance with this though!
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/621...
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/621...
They have a future until the tipping point of more electric cars on the road than petrol and diesel. There will then be a likely slow decline until petrol stations are few and far between serving only old bangers and enthusiast/classic cars. The tipping point however is likely some time in the 2030s so petrol and diesel should still be widely available until well into the 2040s I think. That is if regulation or taxation doesn't force them off the road sooner but that's a politically difficult move.
I was at an event today with someone from Xtra motorway services. Based on the challenges he described of connecting up even somewhere close to the necessary capacity to make charging away from home viable at scale, I’d wager we’ll reach a point where the government has to row back from zero (local) emissions vehicles.
The UK government don't want petrol or diesel to have a future, and they want us all in electric cars instead(or even better still on a pushbike). But I do think there is still a bit of life left in them yet though, because there are too many diesels/petrols on the roads currently for them to completely disappear anytime soon I think.
Cjr32blue said:
Genuine question as I don't know enough about these. Can they be produced economically in bulk and can they be used in current engines?
The answers are "no" and "some" respectively. There's not really a reason that bioethanol couldn't end up at a reasonable price as long as demand isn't too high; the problem is that it needs land which is also prime for growing food; if it's used for running a few classics, that's not really an issue, but it could never really be used for mainstream transport.
Some very modern cars can run on pure ethanol, but older ones generally can't simply because the materials used in the fueling system we're designed to deal with it. Of course they could be modified, but not easily or cheaply.
It will be a very long time before there's any difficulty finding unleaded petrol.
Edited by kambites on Wednesday 14th May 20:09
cerb4.5lee said:
The UK government don't want petrol or diesel to have a future, and they want us all in electric cars instead(or even better still on a pushbike). But I do think there is still a bit of life left in them yet though, because there are too many diesels/petrols on the roads currently for them to completely disappear anytime soon I think.
Diesel cars have been reducing in quantify to the tune of over 1400 cars per day every day net for the last 2 years… they’re going at quite a rate. Diesel fuel volumes are steadily declining now too. I suspect the petrol station applicant the OP refers to might change their mind by the time planning is granted!
DaveCWK said:
There's decades.
There might be a gradual decline in petrol stations, but that's just continuing the decline of the past 30+ years, and won't have any real affect on day to day usage.
I wouldn't be so sure that it will be a gradual decline. If the mandate delivers even remotely near targets, then we'll reach parity in the UK car pool of EV vs petrol & diesel combined by the end of 2035. That's a hell of a drop in fuel demand - surely that will mean a fair chunk of petrol stations closing, way above the decline of the last few decades. Faced with that backdrop, I just can't see petrol station operators falling over themselves to sink more capex into a shrinking opportunity.There might be a gradual decline in petrol stations, but that's just continuing the decline of the past 30+ years, and won't have any real affect on day to day usage.
kambites said:
Cjr32blue said:
Genuine question as I don't know enough about these. Can they be produced economically in bulk and can they be used in current engines?
The answers are "no" and "some" respectively. There's not really a reason that bioethanol couldn't end up at a reasonable price as long as demand isn't too high; the problem is that it needs land which is also prime for growing food; if it's used for running a few classics, that's not really an issue, but it could never really be used for mainstream transport.
Some very modern cars can run on pure ethanol, but older ones generally can't simply because the materials used in the fueling system we're designed to deal with it. Of course they could be modified, but not easily or cheaply.
It will be a very long time before there's any difficulty finding unleaded petrol.
Edited by kambites on Wednesday 14th May 20:09
oldagepensioner said:
With the future currently being electric how long is the expected lifespan of petrol and diesel fuel.There is a new housing estate of up tp 700 houses being built over the road from me.On land opposite this on the lower rd on the isle of Sheppey the a2500 and supposedly to serve this estate a piece of adjacent land has been allocated for a petrol station so someone is at least hoping that it will be around for a while.I have no doubt it will include charging stations as well but if it is anything like the other developments in this area ie Aldi distribution centre,Aldi flagship store and Lidl it will have to go through at least 2 appeals before it gets final approval since Swale council will probably fight it tooth and nail and still lose.
At least 1.3bn cars on the road, how many are EV.TX.
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