Will there ever be too many (normal) used cars?

[Garlick]

As it was such a nice day yesterday (sarcasm) the Mrs and I decided to head to the coast for a nice day out. As I drove down the motorway it was the usual collection of new (up to four years old) hatches and saloons in the usual metallic colours with a variety of diesel engines, the odd estate and MPV thrown in too (metallic, diesel).

As the Mrs snoozed I started thinking about the used market. Now, I can see how there will always be a market for interesting cars (and yes, I include shed barges in that description) but surely there will be a time when the market will just offer a mass of silver diesel hatchbacks/ saloons and residuals will plummet as a result, no?

Is it not going to go the same way as the house market, and an £18k Passat will be worth hardly anything is a year or two down the line? What with all the private finance deals, leasing deals and company cars the used market us about to be flooded, isn't it?

Has it already started? Just curious as it's not a market I usually take much notice of.

[Garlick]

Well, quite. But can the market sustain the sheer amount of similar stock now out there. Supply with surely outstrip demand (and those that can afford to buy a nearly new used car these days)

If market dictates, even I could be tempted with a very cheap, nearly new Golf diesel when the bottom falls out of the market

[Garlick]

kambites said:

I don't quite understand what it would mean for the market not to sustain it. Cars always have a value of some kind, even if it's only as scrap metal. It's just supply and demand.

We almost certainly already scrap cars younger on average than anywhere else for this very reason.

You're right, but I can just imagine forecourts full of silver Mondeo/ Passat/ Insignias that nobody wants....I guess they just get cheaper until someone bites, as you say.

[Garlick]

I guess that spec will become ever more important, as will service history.

Not got climate or nav? Missed a service? Punter will just move along to the next, similarly priced diesel hatchback.

Maybe extended warranties will help buyers peace of mind, who knows.

[Garlick]

jas xjr said:

last night just looking through the classifieds , as you do there were hundreds of cars that i would buy , for around £1000 or less . alfa 156 estate v6 with leather £1000 , for example.

i know people want economical cars , but for me at the moment that looks like a bargain

Agreed.

I was recently looking at late(ish) Range Rovers and you can't help but notice the petrol/ diesel difference.

Fully specced V8 petrol examples with low miles were much cheaper than higher mileage, less well specced diesels and as a chap who doesn't cover that many miles per week the savings are tempting.

Seems the UK buyer wants diesel, nothing else will do.

[Garlick]

kambites said:

Garlick said:

I guess that spec will become ever more important, as will service history.

Possibly, but if prices get driven that low, we'll be at the point where the whole car is worth less than the desirable options cost, so it would be a daft reason to spec things you don't want when buying the car new. You'd be better off buying without them and then scrapping the car.

Again, I agree. That's the sensible chaps opinion anyway. To the average car buyer (who see it as an appliance, albeit an expensive one) they will be in a position to be a lot more choosy.

It's almost like selling a house now, in that if you do manage to get a buyer on your drive you need to do all you can to get that sale.

[Garlick]

C.A.R. said:

However now that I am starting to gather more commitments in life - starting a small family, having to afford rent - I'm now looking for a diesel hatchback. The market is absolutely heaving with cars in my budget so finding something remotely interesting or different from the normal, grey specification is actually pretty tough.

That's kind of what I mean.

Roll back a few years and you'd still have a variety of cars from mainstream manufacturers but they would have (for example) a 1.3L, a nicer 1.6 GL a sporty 2.0 SRI and perhaps a lovely 2.8 Ghia X in a variety of colours and trim.

2015 will see forecourts amass with grey diesel saloons and hatches and not a lot else (perhaps).

[Garlick]

fwaggie said:

Middle range cars I think are typically leased or bought with these PCPs with guaranteed future value in 2/3 years time. If the actual value is half what they guaranteed, people will be handing them back in droves. Big losses for the credit / contract companies and a lot of middle of the range cars coming onto the market.

That is a very good point.

[Garlick]

Cotty said:

Speak for yourself. Never owned one, don't want one.

I was referring to the family car buying market, but yes I'd have one too.

RR TDV8
A8 4.2
535D Touring
W124 E300D wagon

To name a few that I would happily own....