GT3 prices going up

[IbanezDan]

Gibbo205 said:

A lot of people buying cars are now buying as their forever cars, the newer stuff has become less interesting to many as they want a fun road car, not a numbers car and that is why the older stuff in particular has seen a real big boost in values because they simply provide more fun at the slower speeds and as our roads have more cameras than ever people want the fun cars at legal speeds.

Exactly this, I bought my GT3 a few months ago (997.2 clubsport). Would only ever think of selling if I was in a position to buy a clean RS but do not believe they're worth the premium over mine (probably have to add nearly 100k to get essentially the same car in as nice condition).

With there only being some ~220 ish 997 GT3's in the UK, around 80 gen2 and less than half of this originally a club sport spec.... To me, its irreplaceable.

[esotericar]

Tagteam said:

No experts , just opinions . And the opinions seem to be finally predicting price falls . But let’s see

I think more accurately, it's not a prediction that prices wil fall but a view that GT cars are very unlikely to be immune to a significant economic recession. Whether / when the recession happens is another matter.

Some people have got tulip mania and think it all goes on forever. All the historical evidence says otherwise.

[esotericar]

Gibbo205 said:

What people need to remember is the current GT3 and soon coming RS are going to be the last NA GT3's I believe, the next ones will be some form of hybrid potentially, the end of ICE cars is getting closer and closer, plus the supply of GT3's on the market in any flavour is always slim pickings.

Not convinced hybridisation will change much. If you're a serious purist, the latter GT cars are already wall-to-wall carpets, gizmos and driver aids. I suspect a hybrid GT3 will deliver just fine compared to, say, a 991 or 992 GT3. No doubt it will be better. Compared to, say, a 996.2 GT3, that would be more problematical if the remit was purity, but then the market already makes it clear that it doesn't value the purity of the 996 given it's both far more scarce and worth far less than a late model GT car.

[time waster]

esotericar said:

Tagteam said:

No experts , just opinions . And the opinions seem to be finally predicting price falls . But let’s see

I think more accurately, it's not a prediction that prices wil fall but a view that GT cars are very unlikely to be immune to a significant economic recession. Whether / when the recession happens is another matter.

Some people have got tulip mania and think it all goes on forever. All the historical evidence says otherwise.

I agree, people will get burned , but the car market will be better for it.

[Digga]

esotericar said:

… the market already makes it clear that it doesn't value the purity of the 996 given it's both far more scarce and worth far less than a late model GT car.

So far, but I am not sure that will continue. Plenty of other, previously unloved Porsche have seen significant increases in attention drive prices forward.

Granted, a recession will dent this, but saying “never” for the 996 GT3 as a real cult classic is a big, bold statement.

[Melvynr]

GT3s will be seen as a safe haven if a recession comes for cash buyers.

[esotericar]

Digga said:

So far, but I am not sure that will continue. Plenty of other, previously unloved Porsche have seen significant increases in attention drive prices forward.

Granted, a recession will dent this, but saying “never” for the 996 GT3 as a real cult classic is a big, bold statement.

Who said 'never'? Not me. I was merely pointing out that the implied argument of the other post that seemed to appeal at least in part to perceptions around what you might call purist preferences doesn't add up if you look at what the market currently values.

That said, gen 2 996 GT3 is my fave of all 911s from a driving perspective, but doubt they'll ever really explode in value. They do not and never will have the right look for that, IMO.

Sure, you couldn't give away rotten old 911Ts 25 years ago (arguably, they're still pretty rotten now, but that's another story), but they have the fashionable look loads of people want. I don't see the 996 body acquiring anything like that level of fashion. When the car has attained try hard fashionista status such that David Beckham is out accidentally-on-purpose being papped looking 'cool' in a studiously old 996 C2 (he's got a long-hood air cooled for that), I'll take it all back.

[av185]

Melvynr said:

GT3s will be seen as a safe haven if a recession comes for cash buyers.

Indeed and many interesting ICE cars will be as well.

Buy metal.!

With even higher inflation likely causing continuing rising new car prices serious erosion to cash piles and little upside in financial markets atm, certain cars (as well as property) are some of the most obvious safe havens and even IF we are to enter a recession it won't be anywhere near apocalyptic structural event of 2008 again contrary to what many of the usual doomongers are peddling.

[esotericar]

Can't say if there will be a recession, but the idea that if there is luxury goods like Porsche GT cars will be seen as a 'safe haven' for cash is, well, exotic.

Just out of interest, why didn't people pile into premium cars as a save haven during previous recessions in the last 50-odd years? Why not in the 90s recession when the cars were much scarcer? Or why buy Porsche GT car and not some other limited supply luxury item? Why not art?

[Digga]

esotericar said:

Can't say if there will be a recession, but the idea that if there is luxury goods like Porsche GT cars will be seen as a 'safe haven' for cash is, well, exotic.

Just out of interest, why didn't people pile into premium cars as a save haven during previous recessions in the last 50-odd years? Why not in the 90s recession when the cars were much scarcer? Or why buy Porsche GT car and not some other limited supply luxury item? Why not art?

Values may soften - bad news if you are a forced seller - but tend to recover, often quite aggressively.

Trouble is, in the whole history of both the financial markets and the automobile, they've never before banned the production and sale of ICE cars.

Edited by Digga on Thursday 14th July 10:58

[esotericar]

Digga said:

Trouble is, in the whole history of both the financial markets and the automobile, they've never before banned the production and sale of ICE cars.

There are factors in both directions in that regard. Already, there are increasing restrictions on the use of ICE cars. If they become really widespread - if, for instance, you can't realistically go into most city / town centres with an ICE car or tour Europe in one, what then re values?

No idea what's going to happen, but like I said, easy enough to identify factors that both imply higher and lower values in future.

[Andyoz]

av185 said:

Melvynr said:

GT3s will be seen as a safe haven if a recession comes for cash buyers.

With even higher inflation likely causing continuing rising new car prices serious erosion to cash piles and little upside in financial markets atm, certain cars (as well as property) are some of the most obvious safe havens and even IF we are to enter a recession it won't be anywhere near apocalyptic structural event of 2008 again contrary to what many of the usual doomongers are peddling.

While I agree it probably won't be as bad as 2008 that's a big statement. They 'fixed' the 2008 debt fueled crash with ....you guessed it ...more debt. Nothing was 'fixed' and per capita debt is alot worse than 2008.

One of the financial systems reactions to the 2008 housing collapse was to just move onto peoples next biggest asset purchase (cars) and they financialise the hell out of that. Manufacturers certainly responded to that challenge and pumped out sports cars like never before. Never say Never. There are over 25,000 x 991 GT3's in all the various versions.

Edited by Andyoz on Thursday 14th July 11:46

[Taffy66]

The difference between the 2008 crisis is back then it was the city financial sector which got hammered due to trading of bundles of dodgy US sub-prime property mortgages. Thousands of well paid city bankers and traders who were well paid and topped with huge bonuses lost their jobs overnight. These owned or financed high end cars which were re-possessed and sold in auctions at rock bottom prices.
There will be a huge recession in the UK before year end but very different to 2008. The base rate is already extremely low compared to the 5.75% of 2008 with national debt already at £2.4Tr compared to £500B back then. This leaves very few choices for the BoE to exert its authority like they did in 2008,
The people who are struggling now are the working class on lower wages who can't afford to buy both food and fuel due to rampant inflation which have never bought supercars.

[Andyoz]

Taffy66 said:

The difference between the 2008 crisis is back then it was the city financial sector which got hammered due to trading of bundles of dodgy US sub-prime property mortgages. Thousands of well paid city bankers and traders who were well paid and topped with huge bonuses lost their jobs overnight. These owned or financed high end cars which were re-possessed and sold in auctions at rock bottom prices.
There will be a huge recession in the UK before year end but very different to 2008. The base rate is already extremely low compared to the 5.75% of 2008 with national debt already at £2.4Tr compared to £500B back then. This leaves very few choices for the BoE to exert its authority like they did in 2008,
The people who are struggling now are the working class on lower wages who can't afford to buy both food and fuel due to rampant inflation which have never bought supercars.

The crypto space at it's peak was 3x times as large as the 2008 sub prime market. Crypto and stock market gains were part of the sports car boom the last two years.

The fact that interest rates have been so low for so long IS the issue. In 2008, they could dump the interest rates to react. Now their hand has been forced (inflation) so they are currently doing the exact opposite in reaction.

No, there won't be a wholesale auction of sports cars but plenty going on the next 12 months that could put a dent in things.

[av185]

Whilst higher end cars took a hit during the last financial crisis the bigger surprise was the rapid speed of recovery soon after as many who sold out on the crash soon found out to their considerable cost attempting to buy back in at a later date.

Just like financial markets attempting to time price rises and falls in the carmarket at all levels and sectors is frought with risk as we all have witnessed during the pandemic and e.g. dieselgate. Being out of any market at any given time is often more risky than staying in depending on your risk profile obviously.

[Digga]

av185 said:

Just like financial markets attempting to time price rises and falls in the carmarket at all levels and sectors is frought with risk as we all have witnessed during the pandemic and e.g. dieselgate. Being out of any market at any given time is often more risky than staying in depending on your risk profile obviously.

IME, more often than not, the best 'bet' is to do the exact opposite of whatever I am doing.

[av185]

av185 said:

Now sold.

Interesting also to note out of a total of 13 used 992 GT3s for sale in the OPC network remarkably 7 are shark blue.

[franki68]

Regardless of market a gt3 is a relatively good car to have money tied up in ,it depreciates much less than 99.9% of cars .
I’d be more worried for those buying 992 gts models at 30k over list .

[Andyoz]

franki68 said:

Regardless of market a gt3 is a relatively good car to have money tied up in ,it depreciates much less than 99.9% of cars .
I’d be more worried for those buying 992 gts models at 30k over list .

Yep, I bought one a few months ago not because of the investment play but to drive and enjoy. I expect to lose money on it.

[Mankers]

Does anyone really care if they lose money on their GT3?

If I can drop £100k + on a car as good and enjoyable to drive as a GT3, not fussed if I lose £20,30,40k….

Surely if one spends £100k + on a car, then it doesn’t represent (or at least really shouldn’t) represent a significant part of their overall wealth / earning capacity, and losing money on it won’t have any meaningful impact, or am I missing something?