308/328 Values
Discussion
Andy 308GTB said:
I don't think this is a bubble, sure prices will probably fall back but the market decides the price.
The price a dealer sticks on a car is irrelevant. The buyer makes the decision whether he pays it or not.
You don't think these prices are a bubble?! Seriously...The price a dealer sticks on a car is irrelevant. The buyer makes the decision whether he pays it or not.
- £150k for a barn find 246 Dino that was as rotten as a pear! 3 years ago you could have gotten a mint Dino for that.
- £600k-£700k for a Daytona when it was £200k 2 years previously!
- £120k for a 328 which would have been £45k-£50k 18 months ago!
- £120k for a Testarossa which was £60k 2 years ago!
- £150k + for a Ferrari 512TR that was £70k 3 years ago.
When the price of something triples in 24 months, you're very likely in a bubble.
ajr550 is exactly right...a small number of dealers have made a concerted attempt to drive the prices up in the past couple of years hoping that speculators will think 'I can earn a ton of money from this' and consequently buy. And it's worked...
That's why quite a lot of supercar/Ferrari dealers are sitting it out currently. Amari has had that Testarossa for close to 18 months. Hendon has had the same red 73 Daytona for nearly 3 years! It's pretty obvious.
By all means by one of the above at these levels but you'll have a rude awakening in 18 months or so when these prices crash.
Jimbo0912 said:
You don't think these prices are a bubble?! Seriously...
- £150k for a barn find 246 Dino that was as rotten as a pear! 3 years ago you could have gotten a mint Dino for that.
- £600k-£700k for a Daytona when it was £200k 2 years previously!
- £120k for a 328 which would have been £45k-£50k 18 months ago!
- £120k for a Testarossa which was £60k 2 years ago!
- £150k + for a Ferrari 512TR that was £70k 3 years ago.
When the price of something triples in 24 months, you're very likely in a bubble.
ajr550 is exactly right...a small number of dealers have made a concerted attempt to drive the prices up in the past couple of years hoping that speculators will think 'I can earn a ton of money from this' and consequently buy. And it's worked...
That's why quite a lot of supercar/Ferrari dealers are sitting it out currently. Amari has had that Testarossa for close to 18 months. Hendon has had the same red 73 Daytona for nearly 3 years! It's pretty obvious.
By all means by one of the above at these levels but you'll have a rude awakening in 18 months or so when these prices crash.
No, I won't have a rude awakening in 18 months when prices crash, you seem to think everyone is buying these cars as an investment or a trading tool. - £150k for a barn find 246 Dino that was as rotten as a pear! 3 years ago you could have gotten a mint Dino for that.
- £600k-£700k for a Daytona when it was £200k 2 years previously!
- £120k for a 328 which would have been £45k-£50k 18 months ago!
- £120k for a Testarossa which was £60k 2 years ago!
- £150k + for a Ferrari 512TR that was £70k 3 years ago.
When the price of something triples in 24 months, you're very likely in a bubble.
ajr550 is exactly right...a small number of dealers have made a concerted attempt to drive the prices up in the past couple of years hoping that speculators will think 'I can earn a ton of money from this' and consequently buy. And it's worked...
That's why quite a lot of supercar/Ferrari dealers are sitting it out currently. Amari has had that Testarossa for close to 18 months. Hendon has had the same red 73 Daytona for nearly 3 years! It's pretty obvious.
By all means by one of the above at these levels but you'll have a rude awakening in 18 months or so when these prices crash.
This is not a zero sum game - where the value is X and will always return to X. Which is what is suggested when you refer to this as a bubble.
People buy these cars for lots of different reasons. I bought my car 17 years ago, the value of it is irrelevant to me & I watch the market with amusement.
I personally was amazed when 308's were being offered at 45k and thought it was unrealistic. I certainly wouldn't pay 75k for one. But I also thought house prices were daft but they've carried on upwards. I don't think you will see quality 308's being offered at the same prices that were available 3 or 4 years ago . Ever.
The fact that dealers have cars on their forecourts for long periods, the asking prices they put on them etc. can be for a host of reasons. It's not all about hiking prices.
@Andy 308GTB - You have a good attitude towards this but a lot don't. We've seen this mania before - crazy prices for Ferraris and classic cars in the late 1980's. Look what happened to that! In a lot of cases, it took 20+ years for those values to recover. And some still haven't.
In a nutshell, the value of classic cars has risen enormously in the last 5 years due to the super rich parking their money in what is perceived as 'safe investments' after the financial crash of 2008. This has filtered down to cars which the reasonably wealthy man can afford - look at most of the websites selling classic cars/Ferraris. They talk about them being great investments for the future...even if they're not.
But we're seeing a cooling off for the super valuable cars - Ferrari 250 GTO, Bugatti Type 57, pre-war Talbots, pre-war Mercs, Duesenbergs etc. This will eventually affect all markets.
Currently investors are buying in because they're seeing HAGI index 15-20% gains instead of 2% elsewhere. Also CGT exempt so it's currently a tempting and profitable market to play in. But this will definitely change at some point...probably when interest rates rise.
People always say 'it's different this time,' and it rarely ever is. We'll see significant corrections a few years down the line.
In a nutshell, the value of classic cars has risen enormously in the last 5 years due to the super rich parking their money in what is perceived as 'safe investments' after the financial crash of 2008. This has filtered down to cars which the reasonably wealthy man can afford - look at most of the websites selling classic cars/Ferraris. They talk about them being great investments for the future...even if they're not.
But we're seeing a cooling off for the super valuable cars - Ferrari 250 GTO, Bugatti Type 57, pre-war Talbots, pre-war Mercs, Duesenbergs etc. This will eventually affect all markets.
Currently investors are buying in because they're seeing HAGI index 15-20% gains instead of 2% elsewhere. Also CGT exempt so it's currently a tempting and profitable market to play in. But this will definitely change at some point...probably when interest rates rise.
People always say 'it's different this time,' and it rarely ever is. We'll see significant corrections a few years down the line.
Jimbo0912 said:
@Andy 308GTB - You have a good attitude towards this but a lot don't. We've seen this mania before - crazy prices for Ferraris and classic cars in the late 1980's. Look what happened to that! In a lot of cases, it took 20+ years for those values to recover. And some still haven't.
In a nutshell, the value of classic cars has risen enormously in the last 5 years due to the super rich parking their money in what is perceived as 'safe investments' after the financial crash of 2008. This has filtered down to cars which the reasonably wealthy man can afford - look at most of the websites selling classic cars/Ferraris. They talk about them being great investments for the future...even if they're not.
But we're seeing a cooling off for the super valuable cars - Ferrari 250 GTO, Bugatti Type 57, pre-war Talbots, pre-war Mercs, Duesenbergs etc. This will eventually affect all markets.
Currently investors are buying in because they're seeing HAGI index 15-20% gains instead of 2% elsewhere. Also CGT exempt so it's currently a tempting and profitable market to play in. But this will definitely change at some point...probably when interest rates rise.
People always say 'it's different this time,' and it rarely ever is. We'll see significant corrections a few years down the line.
I guess my point is when the bubble bursts how far does it set the prices back.In a nutshell, the value of classic cars has risen enormously in the last 5 years due to the super rich parking their money in what is perceived as 'safe investments' after the financial crash of 2008. This has filtered down to cars which the reasonably wealthy man can afford - look at most of the websites selling classic cars/Ferraris. They talk about them being great investments for the future...even if they're not.
But we're seeing a cooling off for the super valuable cars - Ferrari 250 GTO, Bugatti Type 57, pre-war Talbots, pre-war Mercs, Duesenbergs etc. This will eventually affect all markets.
Currently investors are buying in because they're seeing HAGI index 15-20% gains instead of 2% elsewhere. Also CGT exempt so it's currently a tempting and profitable market to play in. But this will definitely change at some point...probably when interest rates rise.
People always say 'it's different this time,' and it rarely ever is. We'll see significant corrections a few years down the line.
I believe there is an underlying increase in value in these cars (i.e. 308's) - obviously it has got ahead of itself but how far is the question.
The glass cars are the target of wealthy individuals accumulating the set (i.e. F40, 288GTO etc) but the other cars, I'm not so sure.
It's this balance of enthusiasts versus investors that will dictate how much prices correct. (IMO
)The 308 (non-glass) market I think is more biased towards enthusiasts, whereas a lot of the cars you mention are the realm of investors.
I can see the similarities to the 90's - I still have the advert for a 288GTO being offered for £999,999.00.
I just don't think this move is as extreme, sure prices will correct, it is a market - it's how far they do that is the question. A bubble suggests a massive retrenchment back to previous values or below - but what are previous values? We can argue that one all day long!
Interesting discussion.
Andy 308GTB said:
I guess my point is when the bubble bursts how far does it set the prices back.
I believe there is an underlying increase in value in these cars (i.e. 308's) - obviously it has got ahead of itself but how far is the question.
The glass cars are the target of wealthy individuals accumulating the set (i.e. F40, 288GTO etc) but the other cars, I'm not so sure.
It's this balance of enthusiasts versus investors that will dictate how much prices correct. (IMO)
The 308 (non-glass) market I think is more biased towards enthusiasts, whereas a lot of the cars you mention are the realm of investors.
I can see the similarities to the 90's - I still have the advert for a 288GTO being offered for £999,999.00.
I just don't think this move is as extreme, sure prices will correct, it is a market - it's how far they do that is the question. A bubble suggests a massive retrenchment back to previous values or below - but what are previous values? We can argue that one all day long!
Interesting discussion.
Some good points Andy. I agree with what you're saying about the 308 (particularly the fibre glass cars). You can still get decent steel cars at sensible prices. The 328 on the other hand...that is really baffling. £125k for one of those...no thanks. Tom Hartley is selling a 400 mile 328 for well in excess of £130k...this seems madness. I believe there is an underlying increase in value in these cars (i.e. 308's) - obviously it has got ahead of itself but how far is the question.
The glass cars are the target of wealthy individuals accumulating the set (i.e. F40, 288GTO etc) but the other cars, I'm not so sure.
It's this balance of enthusiasts versus investors that will dictate how much prices correct. (IMO
)The 308 (non-glass) market I think is more biased towards enthusiasts, whereas a lot of the cars you mention are the realm of investors.
I can see the similarities to the 90's - I still have the advert for a 288GTO being offered for £999,999.00.
I just don't think this move is as extreme, sure prices will correct, it is a market - it's how far they do that is the question. A bubble suggests a massive retrenchment back to previous values or below - but what are previous values? We can argue that one all day long!
Interesting discussion.
You're probably correct in saying that it's not quite as bad as the late 80's/early 90's when taking inflation into account...but it's not far off.
2 Major instances of a bubble particularly in Ferrari Prices:
1) The Dino that went for £130k earlier this year that was completely rotten as a consequence of being stored in a leaking garage since 1975. A total wreck mechanically and body wise. Not worth restoring and couldn't be used for spares. Lunacy.
2) A number of dealers are advertising F40's for over £1m! Less than £300k 2 years ago. Whilst the F40 is a brilliant road/race Ferrari, 1,315 were produced! It's far from a rare car and is still in abundant supply. If you want one, they're extremely easy to obtain. So £1m+ seems ridiculous.
Yet at the same time the market is seriously confused. In some cases, there appears to be a massive disconnect between advertised and sale prices which may suggest a correction is fairly imminent. Mansell's F40 only sold for £543,375 at auction recently (nearly £600k less than 2 F40s are currently being advertised for). The only difference is that Mansell's had done 30,000 whilst the other 2 advertised at £1.1m have done 4,500 & 9,000 respectively.
It's difficult to know where this market is heading and when the correction will happen...but I can see lots of people being burnt playing the speculation game.
Yes an interesting debate ref future values. I think there will inevitably be a correction, but on certain models (308,355 and a few other long term desirables) I don't think the correction will go back to the values 3 years ago ie it wont be an "off the edge of a cliff drop"!
It will be interesting to see what (if anything) triggers this correction? rise in interest rates?
It will be interesting to see what (if anything) triggers this correction? rise in interest rates?
Quote The 328 on the other hand...that is really baffling. £125k for one of those...no thanks. Tom Hartley is selling a 400 mile 328 for well in excess of £130k...this seems madness. Unquote
Tom Hartley and other similar dealers selling cars that sometimes run into many millions
attract a clientele that can afford to spend those millions without any effect on their lifestyle..
Its not much of a stretch to convince mr multi millionaire who has just purchased the 1960s ferrari for
£100s of thousands ,maybe even a few million that the pretty 328 next to it at £125k is cheap
by comparison and should be added to their collection.
Tom Hartley and other similar dealers selling cars that sometimes run into many millions
attract a clientele that can afford to spend those millions without any effect on their lifestyle..
Its not much of a stretch to convince mr multi millionaire who has just purchased the 1960s ferrari for
£100s of thousands ,maybe even a few million that the pretty 328 next to it at £125k is cheap
by comparison and should be added to their collection.
Edited by paul0843 on Saturday 10th January 19:52
i posted the same question in the porsche forum. it seems that lhd and rhd prices have disconnected for some cars over the kast few years - as in rhd gained significantly while lhd sit at similar prices as before - is this the new normal due to asian buyers or will this eventually correct again?
i had a rhd 355 and it is imo worse than a lhd example of the same car. do people think prices will eventually align again - regardless of absolute pricing level? i do think that the lhd car is ultimately the "better" car due to it being designed that way. if you are looking at cars as investment / less risk of losing money proposition, maybe the lhd car is the better bet as weekend car nowadays even if you live in the uk ...
i had a rhd 355 and it is imo worse than a lhd example of the same car. do people think prices will eventually align again - regardless of absolute pricing level? i do think that the lhd car is ultimately the "better" car due to it being designed that way. if you are looking at cars as investment / less risk of losing money proposition, maybe the lhd car is the better bet as weekend car nowadays even if you live in the uk ...
Aero8 said:
So after three years of opinionated punters predicting 'bubbles bursting', what has actually happened?
Nothing..
Guess what?..This is not the 1980s.
might take a while, but people like my younger brother (27) have no interest in classic cars, they want something that accelerates fast and has all the toys etc, so those guys might be right after all, it might just take another decade to materalise. and those are young car guys, not people who dont care about cars. does not matter after all though as long as you are happy with the car you own, the value is secondary anyway. Nothing..
Guess what?..This is not the 1980s.
over the last few years the number of threads discussing value of cars has gone from close to zero to i feel 75 percent - even threads that are just about posting pictures etc eventually end up as value threads. not a good sign i think, people clearly think about it a lot more than in the past
Interesting article this week from Classic & Sportscar magazine about the top 2014 classic investments
http://www.classicandsportscar.com/news/csc-featur...
http://www.classicandsportscar.com/news/csc-featur...
candsc said:
Cars of the 1980s have suddenly increased dramatically in value, thanks to a new generation of buyers entering a stage of their life where the vehicles of their youth are now attainable pursuits.
They cite the 308 as increasing 200% since 2013Behemoth said:
What where interest rates and inflation like in the 80s when the big classic car crash happened? They both spiked chaotically. It's a very different economic landscape today.
At some point, it'll be politically expedient to raise rates. It will happen, just a case of when. Gassing Station | Ferrari Classics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff