VW aren’t going to threaten Tesla at this rate…
Discussion
https://twitter.com/bertelschmitt/status/148372067...
Not interested in a pro/anti VW/Tesla discussion (though will inevitably end up in one), but if this is true, then there’s little hope of VW (or anyone else materially chip-constrained) making a dent in Tesla’s sales this year.
Not interested in a pro/anti VW/Tesla discussion (though will inevitably end up in one), but if this is true, then there’s little hope of VW (or anyone else materially chip-constrained) making a dent in Tesla’s sales this year.
How so?
It says they can make 1200 EVs a day at that factory or 1400 a day on peak line, whatever that means?
So 6k cars a week or over 300k a year in one factory. They have capacity at the site for 330k annually.
I think currently they have 5 or 6 group sites able to produce up to 900k EVs annually by the end of 2022, so surely that is putting them in a position to compete with Tesla already?
It says they can make 1200 EVs a day at that factory or 1400 a day on peak line, whatever that means?
So 6k cars a week or over 300k a year in one factory. They have capacity at the site for 330k annually.
I think currently they have 5 or 6 group sites able to produce up to 900k EVs annually by the end of 2022, so surely that is putting them in a position to compete with Tesla already?
EVLATECOMER said:
How so?
It says they can make 1200 EVs a day at that factory or 1400 a day on peak line, whatever that means?
So 6k cars a week or over 300k a year in one factory. They have capacity at the site for 330k annually.
I think currently they have 5 or 6 group sites able to produce up to 900k EVs annually by the end of 2022, so surely that is putting them in a position to compete with Tesla already?
Tesla will be on a run rate of greater than 2 million by end 2022, they are already running at 1.2 million at the moment.It says they can make 1200 EVs a day at that factory or 1400 a day on peak line, whatever that means?
So 6k cars a week or over 300k a year in one factory. They have capacity at the site for 330k annually.
I think currently they have 5 or 6 group sites able to produce up to 900k EVs annually by the end of 2022, so surely that is putting them in a position to compete with Tesla already?
VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
ID4 Production validation cars are already rolling off the line in Chattanooga, ahead of schedule. The US production facility was supposed to come online in late 2022, but when you have a factory turning out test cars now, clearly that means customer deliveries will start sooner. Does that mean volume? No idea, but I understand that the ID5 has also started pre-production testing in Zwickau. So two production facilities are ramping up, the Chinese VW factory (slated for EV production) is being built and a healthy order book - looks pretty solid to me.
Not suggesting that VW has some sort of Tesla-killer (hate that phrase), but if there is a demand you can be sure that VAG will fill the gap somehow. But Tesla is currently leading the EV pack, but its market share is now getting eroded pretty quickly as VW and everyone else steps into the market. The bigger question is around how they will fair with a wider set of competitors with diverse products and is there sufficient demand for the growth that everyone is predicting. That I dont know, but it has to be a fear.
Oh, and dont forget that Ford just announced that they are tripling the Mach-e production and doubling the F-150 Lightning production numbers. Doesnt match Tesla's production numbers, but when you add everyone else up, suddenly it looks very different.
Not suggesting that VW has some sort of Tesla-killer (hate that phrase), but if there is a demand you can be sure that VAG will fill the gap somehow. But Tesla is currently leading the EV pack, but its market share is now getting eroded pretty quickly as VW and everyone else steps into the market. The bigger question is around how they will fair with a wider set of competitors with diverse products and is there sufficient demand for the growth that everyone is predicting. That I dont know, but it has to be a fear.
Oh, and dont forget that Ford just announced that they are tripling the Mach-e production and doubling the F-150 Lightning production numbers. Doesnt match Tesla's production numbers, but when you add everyone else up, suddenly it looks very different.
Talksteer said:
Tesla will be on a run rate of greater than 2 million by end 2022, they are already running at 1.2 million at the moment.
VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
Are you not comparing production of a single VW model with the total production of the entire model range of Tesla?VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
Talksteer said:
Tesla will be on a run rate of greater than 2 million by end 2022, they are already running at 1.2 million at the moment.
VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
A bit of oversupply then? I expect to see their 2022 numbers to be something like 1.4m-1.6m, though most industry analysts are suggesting slightly lower at 1.2m to 1.3m. I think there will be demand and given they have to get a couple of factories to bring on stream, something around the 1.5m mark probably makes the most sense - finger in the air stuff of course! I am no industry analyst or insider, but that seems reasonable for growth numbers, production capacity and demand. VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
VAG sold 453k BEV's in 2021 and are expected to double in 2022, so clearly at the 900k mark you are saying. But some analysts are suggesting that if demand holds strong and VAG can pull it off, they could be over the 1m mark with ease and potentially getting close to Tesla in 2022 alone. Lets see if that is true, but thats pretty aggressive!
However, BMW are projected to sell 200k BEV's in 2022, Mercedes are suggesting around the 150k mark and Ford expected to sell over 150k according to Morgan Stanley, and thats before we consider other brands like Kia / Hyundai, GM and others. Just on those numbers, its entirely possible for Tesla could see their command of the EV market diminish pretty quickly. Remember, they were at nearly 80%, but thats down to 67% for 2021. That could very well slip below 50% in 2022. They are still in the commanding position, but this is a long game and everyone has very deep pockets!
Talksteer said:
Tesla will be on a run rate of greater than 2 million by end 2022, they are already running at 1.2 million at the moment.
VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
Building capacity doesn't mean sales. Just because you can build millions of expensive cars doesn't mean people can afford them, especially when cheaper alternatives become more and more available VW won't even have a nominal capacity of 900k by then
That's why, if you want to buy a VW id3, you have to wait until 2023 and also why, the VW e-up is being brought back into production
Expect a bumper year for MY sales, stagnant M3 sales and then in 2023, we'll see what 'real' sales are like after the MY initial launch is fulfilled
The reason the established OE's will (imo) start to catch up with Tesla is two fold:
1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
You make absolutely solid comments there!
Just take a look back at the history of VW and the models they have produced. Other than a few bizarre years and a few stand-out models, what they do is pretty ‘meh’. Standard cars for an average buyer with a bit of a leaning in on build, materials and solidity.
They have never been cars to set the world alight, but know how to engineer and sell to a wide and global market. Yes, VW might not have the perceived quality that they might once have had, but that hasn’t stopped them selling millions upon millions of cars. Take the Passat - pretty uninspiring as a car, but sold well for years. A few refreshes and a couple of new models, still sold well. The Jetta in the US has been a solid seller for years (except last year, dont know why, suspect people were waiting for the refreshed model), but what is a bog standard, cost engineering exercise - yet sell consistently 100k of the damn things! If you need an illustration of a middle of the road car, the US market Jetta is it! But people buy them. And VW knows it.
The best in a particular market doesn’t always win. And said it before, Tesla have first mover advantage, but this is a short lived advantage and doesn’t guarantee success.
Just take a look back at the history of VW and the models they have produced. Other than a few bizarre years and a few stand-out models, what they do is pretty ‘meh’. Standard cars for an average buyer with a bit of a leaning in on build, materials and solidity.
They have never been cars to set the world alight, but know how to engineer and sell to a wide and global market. Yes, VW might not have the perceived quality that they might once have had, but that hasn’t stopped them selling millions upon millions of cars. Take the Passat - pretty uninspiring as a car, but sold well for years. A few refreshes and a couple of new models, still sold well. The Jetta in the US has been a solid seller for years (except last year, dont know why, suspect people were waiting for the refreshed model), but what is a bog standard, cost engineering exercise - yet sell consistently 100k of the damn things! If you need an illustration of a middle of the road car, the US market Jetta is it! But people buy them. And VW knows it.
The best in a particular market doesn’t always win. And said it before, Tesla have first mover advantage, but this is a short lived advantage and doesn’t guarantee success.
Max_Torque said:
The reason the established OE's will (imo) start to catch up with Tesla is two fold:
1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
Im aware of your vast knowledge of cars max and your industry experience but have you driven recent vw products? The below snippet would suggest not!1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
"trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials"
I've just took delivery of a model 3, it's FAR better built than the id3/4, mk8 golf, q4 etron etc. Admittedly I have absolutely no passion for it and it's merely a cash saving tool but the Chinese M3's are well screwed together. Less rattles and loose bits of trim than my recent 718 GTS.
Max_Torque said:
The reason the established OE's will (imo) start to catch up with Tesla is two fold:
1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
Those arguments have been made for a number of years.1) They know how to make a car. Take the VW golf, now in it's 8th generation since first coming to market oin 1974. That's very nearly 50 solid years of learning about how to make a good car. Not a fast car, or a techy car, but a car, ie doors that close nicely, trim that doesn't fall off, how and where to use expensive materials, how and where to hide the cheap ones. How to make it handle well, to crash well, to do all the things a car needs to do that have little of no link to that cars actual energy source. Someone like VW makes a "better" car than Tesla. Once anyone can walk into a VW showroom and be sold an EV just-like-a-golf, then their sales volumes will go through the roof (and we are already seeing this)
2) Familiarity. Ok, a new generation of car buyers is coming to market, but being able to simply buy a VW (or whatever existing brand) really still does have an undeniable effect on sales. It's the reason absolute cra*p boxes like Corsa's (engineered down to a low cost) are still our best selling cars, sold to people who have no interest in, and don't care about, cars........
Tesla isn't the world's most valuable car company for no reason. Last year Wall Street realised that Tesla was exceptionally effective at scaling up production, their rate of return on capital employed was more similar to a chip manufacturer than a car maker. Ergo they built giga factories cheaper and faster than established auto and they don't have legacy factories and product lines to support.
The things which they do much better than established auto, batteries (particularly the supply chain), software, compute hardware, autonomy are the things that matter in the transition not shut lines and soft plastics.
EV demand is over the next 10 years basically going to become car demand. As each cohort of EV buyers makes their purchase they unlock the next as the prices come down, the infrastructure get built and FUD gets broken down as more people have acquaintances with an EV.
It doesn't matter that there are now comparable cars to Tesla's they aren't being produced fast enough, they are generally being produced in the 10,000's with a plan to get to 100,000s in 3 years while Tesla are at 500,000 per Model with a plan to get to millions per year per model in 1-2 years. VW is the closest and trying not to be left behind but even they struggle with unions and internal opposition.
Finally Tesla don't have to make a car that appeals to everyone, just 15% of the market in 8 years time.
At the moment Tesla's are cool, young people like them, BLM and Extinction Rebellion protesters with my M3P were like "dat is sick man, they are fast as f
k...." whereas in my old M6 they literally shouted "patriarchy" when I drove past with wife and kids on board 😆. In the EV space they have authenticity, they are iPhone to android, Coke to Pepsi.Elon Musk has 70 million followers and videos of Tesla's have billions of views on YouTube. There is another word for Tesla fanbois, customer. I think this is indicative of a lot of demand!
I don't think that it is stoppable now, with the stock price as it is they have the money so it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.
Tesla had the first mover advantage and made electric cars cool compared with what came before but times have now moved on and with the Roadster being vapourware they are looking stale compared to new upstarts such as Nio with their EP9 and established manufacturers such as Geely with Polestar Volvo and upcoming Evija Lotus.
As base spec model 3's with 5+ second 0-60's become ubiquitous the perceived performance advantage Telsa had till a couple of years ago against the competition has gone and I doubt they will remain cool with kids/eco minded anymore when they associate them with taxi cabs (most new ubers seems to be Model 3's in London).
The nearest historical equivalent is the Prius, all the left leaning celebrities loved them in the early 00's when they had green exclusivity then a couple of years on they became the defacto private hire car of choice and the coolness evaporated.
JonChalk said:
Not interested in a pro/anti VW/Tesla discussion (though will inevitably end up in one)
Maybe you should have picked another title for the thread then 
dukeboy749r said:
There is some real fanaticism at play in some of the posts. One particular brand seems to attract this, almost religious, fervour.
I admire their emergence but not the blind commentary that often follows them around.
There's a lot of tribalism on Tesla on BOTH sides. For every zealot there's a guy that claims to stay away from Tesla like it's syphilis yet seems to be the resident expert on how they feel and drive I admire their emergence but not the blind commentary that often follows them around.
.Most Telsa "fanboys" actually own a Tesla. They didn't buy one because they already had 5 in a row and their parents had one, a lot of them bought one because it was the best pick out of a very short line-up.
I love that there's some actually competition there, but as per the OP, I think VW is doing a "meh" job, something they've been doing since conception. The reason the ID3 is doing well is because it's occupying a space below the cheapest Tesla.
The best ID4 is actually a Skoda, and even that's hart to justify when pitted against the EV6/Ioniq 5.
Edited by ZesPak on Monday 24th January 08:39
ChocolateFrog said:
When my OH was looking a Model 3 was more than twice the monthlies of an ID3 and that was comparing base with a newr top spec VW.
I don't think there's much overlap in customers.
Just like I said, I know two people personally who ordered an ID3. Both would have had a Model 3 if budget allowed it.I don't think there's much overlap in customers.
Welshbeef said:
dukeboy749r said:
There is some real fanaticism at play in some of the posts. One particular brand seems to attract this, almost religious, fervour.
I admire their emergence but not the blind commentary that often follows them around.
I admire their emergence but not the blind commentary that often follows them around.
A bit like
TVR
Lotus
Ferrari
Lambo
Pagani
Etc
.Currently, VW produces about 10m cars.
For EV's their targets are:
Source: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-relea...
So that's 5m by 2030, yet Tesla is targeting 20m by 2030 and by 2022, their capacity will be over 2m and actual producton probably in the 1.4m to 1.7m range and 5m by 2025/26.. so all this talk of VW passing Tesla in terms of BEVs shipped is nonsense, IFF Tesla maintains it's YoY growth.
VW's Deiss himself states:
I think this transition into EVs has certain constraints. I think the plan to get to 50 percent EV by 2030 is extremely ambitious. If we own, here in Europe, about 20 percent market share, for that 20 percent market share to maintain 50 percent EVs, we need six gigafactories. Those factories would have to be up and running by 2027, 2028 to be able to deliver on our 2030 goal. It’s close to impossible to do that. I have high respect for our team who is facing the challenge because you have to buy all the machine tools. You have to build the plants. You have to find the locations. You have to train the people. You have to make sure that the supply of the raw materials is safeguarded and is good. This is huge. We are only 20 percent of the market, so six plants. Europe needs 30 of those plants. Each plant is two by one kilometers. Huge quantities of raw materials have to be moved. This will be challenging. Then to let’s say, get from 50 percent to 100 percent, it still will be a tremendous challenge. It’s not just saying, “Let’s switch off ICE cars.” It’s just impossible.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/22888316/decoder-intervie...
The building of these gigafactories isn't even set to commence until 2025! So 0 to 6 gigafactories from 2025 to 2030!
They suggest that these 6 gigafactories would supply their European demand and if that's 50% of their sales (~ 1.5m to 2m vehicles) and no plans for the rest of the worldwide 50% of BEV sales. For context, Tesla plan 1.5m vehicles from a single factory in the future.
Source: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/12/volks...
For EV's their targets are:
By 2030, the Group plans to reduce its carbon footprint per car by 30% over its lifecycle (vs. 2018), in line with the Paris Agreement. In the same timeframe, the share of battery-electric vehicles is expected to rise to 50%
Source: https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-relea...
So that's 5m by 2030, yet Tesla is targeting 20m by 2030 and by 2022, their capacity will be over 2m and actual producton probably in the 1.4m to 1.7m range and 5m by 2025/26.. so all this talk of VW passing Tesla in terms of BEVs shipped is nonsense, IFF Tesla maintains it's YoY growth.
VW's Deiss himself states:
I think this transition into EVs has certain constraints. I think the plan to get to 50 percent EV by 2030 is extremely ambitious. If we own, here in Europe, about 20 percent market share, for that 20 percent market share to maintain 50 percent EVs, we need six gigafactories. Those factories would have to be up and running by 2027, 2028 to be able to deliver on our 2030 goal. It’s close to impossible to do that. I have high respect for our team who is facing the challenge because you have to buy all the machine tools. You have to build the plants. You have to find the locations. You have to train the people. You have to make sure that the supply of the raw materials is safeguarded and is good. This is huge. We are only 20 percent of the market, so six plants. Europe needs 30 of those plants. Each plant is two by one kilometers. Huge quantities of raw materials have to be moved. This will be challenging. Then to let’s say, get from 50 percent to 100 percent, it still will be a tremendous challenge. It’s not just saying, “Let’s switch off ICE cars.” It’s just impossible.
Source: https://www.theverge.com/22888316/decoder-intervie...
The building of these gigafactories isn't even set to commence until 2025! So 0 to 6 gigafactories from 2025 to 2030!
They suggest that these 6 gigafactories would supply their European demand and if that's 50% of their sales (~ 1.5m to 2m vehicles) and no plans for the rest of the worldwide 50% of BEV sales. For context, Tesla plan 1.5m vehicles from a single factory in the future.
Source: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/12/volks...
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