Life and Death of Li Ion batteries

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

wormus said:

SpeckledJim said:

Total nonsense. You're making a fool of yourself.

That’s just your opinion.

Unfortunately it is not just SJ's opinion.


Please come back with some real world data that evidences that batteries fail in the way you suggest.

It is just his opinion, he’s not in a position to question my motives and neither are you.

See earlier response and read the articles I linked to.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

I’ve provided links and graphs for everything I’ve referred to, then given opinion. I’ve suggested somewhere after 100k miles, when a battery reached 70% capacity it needs replacing, which all evidence suggests, what’s not clear is how long after 100k miles. If you have time, go back a read some of the articles I refer to and read my responses in context.

ICEs aren’t perfect, far from it, but neither are EVs at the moment, I don’t understand why people on these threads cannot be more objective. Is it perhaps because they are positively biased and seek endorsement from others like them? Certainly I’ve never experienced a forum where there’s such vitriol towards myself, just because I choose to question. I’m all up for polite, healthy debate, but it seems others aren’t capable of it.

I have been following this thread and your post indicates to me that you do not understand what real world data is.

What you posed is not.

I do not believe any of the loosely pro EV posters here have said they are infallible or that they do not have shortcomings.

Most of us will also have EVs and some these will be at the 'fun' end of the market.

What period of time do you think we will need to wait to see real world EVs with high mileage and still have useable batteries?

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

I have to admit that I am a serious oldie. Looking in the mirror comes as a bit of a shock because like many of us we are still 25 inside.

Anyway I studied Engineering and my working life kept me close to technology developments in the High tech sector. However I am no expert and I consider my knowledge to be that of an educated layman.

I do however know how to interpret data and how far that data can be extrapolated. I suggest Wormus does not understand the limitations of taking various bits of information like battery degradation along with warranty periods and turning that in a prediction of failure. It simply does not stack up.

I also work in tech and have done for 30 years, it’s also part of my job to question things and others into doing things better.

[GT9]

I think the 100,000 mile battery idea is workable in any case.

It won't stop EV adoption, and 15 years average lifetime is sufficient to make the whole purpose of the exercise (decarbonisation combined with air quality improvements) worthwhile.

I'm fairly confident the number is higher, but 100,000 miles is perfectly fine for the UK marketplace.

[SpeckledJim]

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I have to admit that I am a serious oldie. Looking in the mirror comes as a bit of a shock because like many of us we are still 25 inside.

Anyway I studied Engineering and my working life kept me close to technology developments in the High tech sector. However I am no expert and I consider my knowledge to be that of an educated layman.

I do however know how to interpret data and how far that data can be extrapolated. I suggest Wormus does not understand the limitations of taking various bits of information like battery degradation along with warranty periods and turning that in a prediction of failure. It simply does not stack up.

I also work in tech and have done for 30 years, it’s also part of my job to question things and others into doing things better.

wormus questioning things, earlier:

wormus said:

It’s commonly accepted that an EV battery needs replacing every 10 years or 100k miles.

[Nomme de Plum]

SpeckledJim said:

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I have to admit that I am a serious oldie. Looking in the mirror comes as a bit of a shock because like many of us we are still 25 inside.

Anyway I studied Engineering and my working life kept me close to technology developments in the High tech sector. However I am no expert and I consider my knowledge to be that of an educated layman.

I do however know how to interpret data and how far that data can be extrapolated. I suggest Wormus does not understand the limitations of taking various bits of information like battery degradation along with warranty periods and turning that in a prediction of failure. It simply does not stack up.

I also work in tech and have done for 30 years, it’s also part of my job to question things and others into doing things better.

wormus questioning things, earlier:

wormus said:

It’s commonly accepted that an EV battery needs replacing every 10 years or 100k miles.

Interesting that as there are a number of Teslas on the market with over 100K miles and one has 154kmiles. How can this possibly be?

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

What period of time do you think we will need to wait to see real world EVs with high mileage and still have useable batteries?

I’d say 20 years of average use, that seems to be the lifetime of conventional ICE-powered cars. Given it’s a certainty that batteries do eventually fail, it’s surprising none of the EV experts here can predict when, even with data which must be available.

[anonymous-user]

SpeckledJim said:

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I have to admit that I am a serious oldie. Looking in the mirror comes as a bit of a shock because like many of us we are still 25 inside.

Anyway I studied Engineering and my working life kept me close to technology developments in the High tech sector. However I am no expert and I consider my knowledge to be that of an educated layman.

I do however know how to interpret data and how far that data can be extrapolated. I suggest Wormus does not understand the limitations of taking various bits of information like battery degradation along with warranty periods and turning that in a prediction of failure. It simply does not stack up.

I also work in tech and have done for 30 years, it’s also part of my job to question things and others into doing things better.

wormus questioning things, earlier:

wormus said:

It’s commonly accepted that an EV battery needs replacing every 10 years or 100k miles.

Is your simple purpose to come here and quote things I’ve written? You’ve done it a couple of times now.

[anonymous-user]

GT9 said:

I think the 100,000 mile battery idea is workable in any case.

It won't stop EV adoption, and 15 years average lifetime is sufficient to make the whole purpose of the exercise (decarbonisation combined with air quality improvements) worthwhile.

I'm fairly confident the number is higher, but 100,000 miles is perfectly fine for the UK marketplace.

Again, as a working assumption, I agree with you.

[SpeckledJim]

wormus said:

SpeckledJim said:

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

I have to admit that I am a serious oldie. Looking in the mirror comes as a bit of a shock because like many of us we are still 25 inside.

Anyway I studied Engineering and my working life kept me close to technology developments in the High tech sector. However I am no expert and I consider my knowledge to be that of an educated layman.

I do however know how to interpret data and how far that data can be extrapolated. I suggest Wormus does not understand the limitations of taking various bits of information like battery degradation along with warranty periods and turning that in a prediction of failure. It simply does not stack up.

I also work in tech and have done for 30 years, it’s also part of my job to question things and others into doing things better.

wormus questioning things, earlier:

wormus said:

It’s commonly accepted that an EV battery needs replacing every 10 years or 100k miles.

Is your simple purpose to come here and quote things I’ve written? You’ve done it a couple of times now.

I'm happy enough to quote you when I think you're talking nonsense.

You can do the same to me if you like, I've no issue with being called-out if I'm talking rubbish.

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

Interesting that as there are a number of Teslas on the market with over 100K miles and one has 154kmiles. How can this possibly be?

You understand data, is that statistically significant? Or are you using anecdotal evidence, the very thing you accused me of…

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

What period of time do you think we will need to wait to see real world EVs with high mileage and still have useable batteries?

I’d say 20 years of average use, that seems to be the lifetime of conventional ICE-powered cars. Given it’s a certainty that batteries do eventually fail, it’s surprising none of the EV experts here can predict when, even with data which must be available.

So about twice the average age of a car in the UK.

Surely data can only be available when sufficient EVs have reached 10 or more years and/or mileage over 100k.

Anything else is a prediction or some sort of modelling.

Modern EVs did not go into production until 2010. Nissan Leaf.

[Nomme de Plum]

wormus said:

Nomme de Plum said:

Interesting that as there are a number of Teslas on the market with over 100K miles and one has 154kmiles. How can this possibly be?

You understand data, is that statistically significant? Or are you using anecdotal evidence, the very thing you accused me of…

Of course it is not but it does evidence that to date there are already EVs with batteries that have lasted over 100K miles.

You have yet to evidence this failure prediction which in my opinion will be difficult for exactly the same reason. Insufficient data. Hence i reject your assertion as unproven.

Within the next 5 years the numbers will have increased substantially and anecdotal situations will turn into useable information.

[dvs_dave]

SpeckledJim said:

wormus said:

wormus questioning things, earlier:

wormus said:

It’s commonly accepted that an EV battery needs replacing every 10 years or 100k miles.

wormus said:

Everyone it seems.

Electric cars with a typical eight-year battery warranty:

[Long list of EV’s….]

With the ‘proof’ to that being that EV battery warranties are typically 8yrs/100k. Seems that in his world, warranty expiration equals end of useful service life. Which is obviously bunkum.

I note that his tact has now changed to playing the victim because he’s been called out numerous times for pedaling made-up bilge. Some would say trolling, but I think he’s just too entrenched to accept the change that’s coming.

A naysaying boomer….now there’s a surprise. You might only have 20 years or so left so you probably won’t see (or care) about the consequences. But I’m hoping to still be around in another 50+ years, so folks like me are somewhat more invested in it for good reason.

Edited by dvs_dave on Wednesday 1st March 18:39

[Nomme de Plum]

dvs_dave said:

With the ‘proof’ to that being that EV battery warranties are typically 8yrs/100m. Seems that in his world, warranty expiration equals end of useful service life. Which is obviously bunkum.

I note that his tact has now changed to playing the victim because he’s been called out numerous times for pedaling made-up bilge. Some would say trolling, but I think he’s just too entrenched to accept the change that’s coming.

A naysaying boomer….now there’s a surprise. You might only have 20 years or so left so you probably won’t see (or care) about the consequences. But I’m hoping to still be around in another 50+ years, so folks like me are somewhat more invested in it for good reason.

Hey,

I'm a boomer but we are not all so negative. I have to say most of my friends are of a similar mindset so it must be that we are just a bit more open to progress.

[OutInTheShed]

Nomme de Plum said:

......

Surely data can only be available when sufficient EVs have reached 10 or more years and/or mileage over 100k.

Anything else is a prediction or some sort of modelling.

Modern EVs did not go into production until 2010. Nissan Leaf.

Quite a lot of early leaves are having pretty tired batteries now, but how much of that is age, and how much is caused or exacerbated by the relatively low battery capacity, which means the battery gets cycled a lot harder?
It's perhaps unfortunate that the two ranges of cars we have most data for are Leaf and Tesla, which lie at extremes of nominal range.

A lot of the time based aging will probably follow (broadly) the norm for chemical reactions, i.e. faster in warmer conditions, so perhaps data from the warmer bits of the US might extrapolate to UK conditions?

It's not hard to find anecdotal forum stuff about i3's suffering early battery decline in the US, no doubt BMW has gathered a lot of data from that.
BMW of course will get info from the cars which are doing well, as well as those whose owners are whining on the internet.

It would be nice to think that such data would encourage carmakers to stand behind their batteries for longer.

[SpeckledJim]

OutInTheShed said:

Nomme de Plum said:

......

Surely data can only be available when sufficient EVs have reached 10 or more years and/or mileage over 100k.

Anything else is a prediction or some sort of modelling.

Modern EVs did not go into production until 2010. Nissan Leaf.

Quite a lot of early leaves are having pretty tired batteries now, but how much of that is age, and how much is caused or exacerbated by the relatively low battery capacity, which means the battery gets cycled a lot harder?
It's perhaps unfortunate that the two ranges of cars we have most data for are Leaf and Tesla, which lie at extremes of nominal range.

A lot of the time based aging will probably follow (broadly) the norm for chemical reactions, i.e. faster in warmer conditions, so perhaps data from the warmer bits of the US might extrapolate to UK conditions?

It's not hard to find anecdotal forum stuff about i3's suffering early battery decline in the US, no doubt BMW has gathered a lot of data from that.
BMW of course will get info from the cars which are doing well, as well as those whose owners are whining on the internet.

It would be nice to think that such data would encourage carmakers to stand behind their batteries for longer.

Leaf is 'stupid as a rock' when it comes to battery sophistication.

Mine is on 103,000 miles now, is charged back to 100% at 7kW twice a day (and has been for 7 years) and is at 80 - 85% battery health.

It's the Model T of EVs, whereas today's EVs are the today's EVs of today.

However good/bad/ugly the Leaf is, pretty much everything else will be miles better.

[Nomme de Plum]

OutInTheShed said:

Quite a lot of early leaves are having pretty tired batteries now, but how much of that is age, and how much is caused or exacerbated by the relatively low battery capacity, which means the battery gets cycled a lot harder?
It's perhaps unfortunate that the two ranges of cars we have most data for are Leaf and Tesla, which lie at extremes of nominal range.

A lot of the time based aging will probably follow (broadly) the norm for chemical reactions, i.e. faster in warmer conditions, so perhaps data from the warmer bits of the US might extrapolate to UK conditions?

It's not hard to find anecdotal forum stuff about i3's suffering early battery decline in the US, no doubt BMW has gathered a lot of data from that.
BMW of course will get info from the cars which are doing well, as well as those whose owners are whining on the internet.

It would be nice to think that such data would encourage carmakers to stand behind their batteries for longer.

I would accept that we are at the relative infancy of EV production.

Electric motors will become more efficient, Regeneration technology will get to a point that conventional separate brakes will not be required. Obviously battery technology and charging/monitoring systems are already improving.

People will also learn how to optimise their cars systems. Especially the younger generations many of who who love tech anyway.

As to the data it could be available now but it does assume the owner will allow it to be shared.

[Nomme de Plum]

SpeckledJim said:

Leaf is 'stupid as a rock' when it comes to battery sophistication.

Mine is on 103,000 miles now, is charged back to 100% at 7kW twice a day (and has been for 7 years) and is at 80 - 85% battery health.

It's the Model T of EVs, whereas today's EVs are the today's EVs of today.

However good/bad/ugly the Leaf is, pretty much everything else will be miles better.

You have eloquently put how we are at the beginning of a great personnel mode of transport journey. I won't be around in 50 yers but i reckon it could be pretty awesome.

My first car (1971) produced about 25bhp per litre. We are eight times that now. Imagine how EVs will look 50 years hence.

[anonymous-user]

Nomme de Plum said:

dvs_dave said:

With the ‘proof’ to that being that EV battery warranties are typically 8yrs/100m. Seems that in his world, warranty expiration equals end of useful service life. Which is obviously bunkum.

I note that his tact has now changed to playing the victim because he’s been called out numerous times for pedaling made-up bilge. Some would say trolling, but I think he’s just too entrenched to accept the change that’s coming.

A naysaying boomer….now there’s a surprise. You might only have 20 years or so left so you probably won’t see (or care) about the consequences. But I’m hoping to still be around in another 50+ years, so folks like me are somewhat more invested in it for good reason.

Hey,

I'm a boomer but we are not all so negative. I have to say most of my friends are of a similar mindset so it must be that we are just a bit more open to progress.

Back to your dominoes you old has been besides, I’m only early 50s, and unlike the youngsters like Dave, don’t take everything at face value. I look forward to him paying for my generous retirement, which of course he will.