Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Personally I just want a mid sized suv/cuv with ~500km range and actual 4wd, I really dont care who makes it.
The Audy/bmw/merc/jaguars are spendy and unlikely to be affordable.
Saying that the local press said the EQC would be form $110k-140k or so (NZD), $110k end is doable but I seriously doubt it will be close to that
Oh and Merc f
ked up the EQC launch properly, all the press releases had 200 mile range all over them, all incorrect, its 250 or something. So all the news is merc has ev, its range sucks.
I suspect I will be looking at a model Y or VW ID suv, possibly a Nissan or Hyundai
The Audy/bmw/merc/jaguars are spendy and unlikely to be affordable.
Saying that the local press said the EQC would be form $110k-140k or so (NZD), $110k end is doable but I seriously doubt it will be close to that
Oh and Merc f
ked up the EQC launch properly, all the press releases had 200 mile range all over them, all incorrect, its 250 or something. So all the news is merc has ev, its range sucks. I suspect I will be looking at a model Y or VW ID suv, possibly a Nissan or Hyundai
I agree that the demand is there. 250 miles range. Agreed not good enough for some but the average buyer won't be put off. I wouldn't buy Korean out of principle. I hope the big winners are the consumers. Im over the Tesla debate. fact, Musk is a huge liability, unstable and he needs cutting loose. I wouldn't buy a product from a lunatic exhibiting his behaviour. No credibility.
I'm not sure of any other substantial battery factories in USA.
Several in Europe but nothing of the scale of a gigafactory until tesla start theirs. VAG seem to be happy ordering in from LG etc who are based in asia with better connections to companies there.
The only other country building substantial supply is china, most of that is for domestic and they are struggling with quality to supply outside.
Several in Europe but nothing of the scale of a gigafactory until tesla start theirs. VAG seem to be happy ordering in from LG etc who are based in asia with better connections to companies there.
The only other country building substantial supply is china, most of that is for domestic and they are struggling with quality to supply outside.
zubzob said:
The thing is, battery supply is a massive bottleneck. No company, no matter how rich, could make 1 million 35k EVs in 2020, it's simply impossible with current tech. It's not a case of waiting for the market to appear. It's a case of waiting for technology to appear .
If a million £35k premium EVs appeared in shops tomorrow, they would likely be demand regardless of the manufacturer. Nissan can't keep up with leaf demand.
The shorts downplay the gigafactory's ownership structure, but fact remains it is under Tesla's control.
I'm not suggesting Tesla is worth more than 200 USD a share, or that larger manufacturers won't overtake them by 2022. But it's not like GM etc can suddenly start building 10 million EVs whenever it wants. EV battery efficiency and volume won't be ready by that point.
Tesla's advantage is that they are very focused on this. There is no distraction from hybrids or anything else. If they can stay solvent until 2022 and focus entirely on solving battery supply, they have a chance of at least being in the top 3 EV makers into the decade. I'm not saying they will be number 1, but that is still an acheivement for a new US auto company.
This is very true but I would counter that it’s a more dangerous model to own your own battery factory, especially one that produces a unique specification of battery for your key volume model. Access to the raw materials is the big risk over the coming years. If you can’t get the raw materials into your factory then you can’t produce batteries and if your battery is unique then you can’t bridge medium term issues by buying in from another battery firm as Tesla had to do previously. Tesla buy Lithium on the open market if there is a shortage of supply caused by the continued rise of consumer demand and the inability of the extraction companies to meet growth demands then an economic war is going to break out and what will become hugely vital is the financial firepower of the car manufacturer to pay up for those resources. At that point you need to look at who has the best profit margins in their products and who has the strongest balance sheets, best access to the debt markets and the most political and corporate leverage in order to not just secure supply but be able to absorb the increased cost. Firms like VW and Mercedes are absolutely at the top of that list for Western manufacturers and Tesla manifestly at the bottom. They already have no margin in the 3 hence why they aren’t selling them for $35k and they have no economic or political leverage with the Chinese State and not can they go to an Asian battery manufacturer to bridge any supply issues. The question at such a point is how strong their relationship is with Panasonic for Panasonic post 2020 to favour them over any relationship with another partner with deeper pockets and bigger volumes?If a million £35k premium EVs appeared in shops tomorrow, they would likely be demand regardless of the manufacturer. Nissan can't keep up with leaf demand.
The shorts downplay the gigafactory's ownership structure, but fact remains it is under Tesla's control.
I'm not suggesting Tesla is worth more than 200 USD a share, or that larger manufacturers won't overtake them by 2022. But it's not like GM etc can suddenly start building 10 million EVs whenever it wants. EV battery efficiency and volume won't be ready by that point.
Tesla's advantage is that they are very focused on this. There is no distraction from hybrids or anything else. If they can stay solvent until 2022 and focus entirely on solving battery supply, they have a chance of at least being in the top 3 EV makers into the decade. I'm not saying they will be number 1, but that is still an acheivement for a new US auto company.
Edited by zubzob on Wednesday 5th September 09:31
zubzob said:
It's not a winner takes all fight. I I don't see why VW being top of the queue means Tesla can't thrive too. Panasonic will be happy to diversify. I can't see any autocompany controlling more than 50% of battery supply.
If Tesla can keep control of even 20% of battery supply by 2022, that's a huge deal.I think Tesla's achievement to date is even having a chance of achieving that market position, given their size. It's a roll of the dice sure, but it's quite remarkable they even have the dice to roll.
Obviously petrol sales will dwarf EV sales even in 2022. But that's not really the main point of the thread. I don't think even the bulls are suggesting that is not the case, or that the share price trades on anything but sentiment alone.
And what you have posted is the point. A roll of the dice, a huge gamble on a stock already is the stratosphere, price wise. Where is the upside. The risk/reward profile doesn't stack upIf Tesla can keep control of even 20% of battery supply by 2022, that's a huge deal.I think Tesla's achievement to date is even having a chance of achieving that market position, given their size. It's a roll of the dice sure, but it's quite remarkable they even have the dice to roll.
Obviously petrol sales will dwarf EV sales even in 2022. But that's not really the main point of the thread. I don't think even the bulls are suggesting that is not the case, or that the share price trades on anything but sentiment alone.
Edited by zubzob on Wednesday 5th September 10:18
and this yesterday from Goldman
Although Tesla isn't expected to launch its Model Y until 2020, Goldman Sachs says the company faces a "large crescendo" of competition in the coming years.
For instance, Daimler's (DMLRY) Mercedes-Benz revealed its first all-electric SUV on Tuesday. It's the first model under the German car maker's electric EQ brand. Rival luxury manufacturers BMW and Audi (AUDVF) are also getting deeper into the electric vehicle game, threatening Tesla's dominance.
Here's another obstacle for Tesla: Its cars are about to get more expensive. A tax credit for buyers of electric vehicles is set to expire for Tesla at the end of the year. The full tax credit is gradually phased out after a company sells its 200,000th electric car in the United States — a milestone Tesla passed in July.
"The tweeting fiasco," Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne wrote to clients, "is likely to draw investor scrutiny on whether Elon's behavior, management style, and operational ability are enough to take Tesla to the next level."
EQC production doesnt even start until next year. That puts them only a year behind.. jaguar...
At least bmw have stared the ix3 or whatever, but thats just an x3 with batteries in the boot not exactly a great effort.
Tesla are making what 35Gwh of batteries a year now.
I've no doubt the Germans will catch up eventually but it will take until 2022-23 at a minimum to catch tesla circa 2016
By 2023 tesla will be making a $25k sub compact car, pickup truck, roadster, refreshed s, X, model 3 model y and Truck.
At least bmw have stared the ix3 or whatever, but thats just an x3 with batteries in the boot not exactly a great effort.
Tesla are making what 35Gwh of batteries a year now.
I've no doubt the Germans will catch up eventually but it will take until 2022-23 at a minimum to catch tesla circa 2016
By 2023 tesla will be making a $25k sub compact car, pickup truck, roadster, refreshed s, X, model 3 model y and Truck.
zubzob said:
It's not a winner takes all fight. I I don't see why VW being top of the queue means Tesla can't thrive too. Panasonic will be happy to diversify. I can't see any autocompany controlling more than 50% of battery supply.
If Tesla can keep control of even 20% of battery supply by 2022, that's a huge deal.I think Tesla's achievement to date is even having a chance of achieving that market position, given their size. It's a roll of the dice sure, but it's quite remarkable they even have the dice to roll.
Obviously petrol sales will dwarf EV sales even in 2022. But that's not really the main point of the thread. I don't think even the bulls are suggesting that is not the case, or that the share price trades on anything but sentiment alone.
Again, I agree but the margins within Tesla’s products can’t handle a spike in battery costs if they have to fight for raw material supplies. They also can’t be competitive on funding deals to consumers as they don’t own their own bank/funding house. And on top of that they can’t match the product quality at the premium end of the market where they operate. If Tesla can keep control of even 20% of battery supply by 2022, that's a huge deal.I think Tesla's achievement to date is even having a chance of achieving that market position, given their size. It's a roll of the dice sure, but it's quite remarkable they even have the dice to roll.
Obviously petrol sales will dwarf EV sales even in 2022. But that's not really the main point of the thread. I don't think even the bulls are suggesting that is not the case, or that the share price trades on anything but sentiment alone.
Edited by zubzob on Wednesday 5th September 10:18
In a conventional market where there are not these potential restrictions then competition is essential. The more products the quicker the market grows and everyone sells more product and makes more money. On paper all the incumbents planning to come to market with premium EV products by 2020 should be fantastic news as the this will massively expand the consumer market and the Tesla brand is in a brilliant place to grow into that expanding market.
The risk is that the Tesla product isn’t really premium. It’s premium price but not premium quality. It’s also hugely inefficient in production which means it has very low margins at point of sale. The after sales costs to the firm are also much larger due to the lower quality and that cost hits those initial margins even harder. All these premium EVs will be sold via consumer debt structures and not being able to be compatible again further hits those margins. And finally, there is the geographic aspect of the future sales growth. It’s going to be from Asia so not being able to build locally or ship product as efficiently as competitors hits those weak margins yet again.
The key here is to remember Blue Monday. Biggest selling single of all time and it bankrupted the band and company because there was not enough profit margin in each unit sold. Consumer volume increases are only good if you have solid profit margins locked in. In Tesla’s case that simply isn’t the case.
zubzob said:
Yes I 100% agree that the share price trades on sentiment. So what.
Where I disagree, is that Tesla will inevitably be obliterated when big auto ramps up. I think they have a fairly decent chance of being a profitable, top 5 EV maker in 5 years. Thats not to say big auto won't sell 100x the volume of hybrids or whatever. But in EV GWH terms, they have a fighting chance of defending their stake.
But Tesla will survive, be profitable, and will make new cars. And people will buy them. What else do we care about really?
I'm talking about the valuation.A the mugs paying near $400 for a dog sWhere I disagree, is that Tesla will inevitably be obliterated when big auto ramps up. I think they have a fairly decent chance of being a profitable, top 5 EV maker in 5 years. Thats not to say big auto won't sell 100x the volume of hybrids or whatever. But in EV GWH terms, they have a fighting chance of defending their stake.
But Tesla will survive, be profitable, and will make new cars. And people will buy them. What else do we care about really?
t stock. It may make money. Small amounts of money. But I see a whipsaw performance of small signs of positive cashflow followed by deep losses and on it goes. In my view they will aid the adoption of EV but in 10 years you will see flat to negative returns (life to date). And seriously I think something will happen to Musk. He is an odd individual indeed
zubzob said:
I don't know why you are so confident on this. Do you have contacts familiar with the matter?
Lots of conflicting press on this. For eg. (Not claiming the source is 100% robust. But why do you trust other news reports over this one?)
"...an engineering firm purchased four Tesla Model 3s on the grey market to study on behalf of an anonymous major German auto manufacturer. among their key findings: due in part to a huge reduction in cobalt in the batteries (2.8% in the cathodes versus a typical 8%) and a number of simplifications, the parts cost of a Model 3 (in units of 10,000 vehicles per week) is estimated at $18,000, along with $10,000 in production costs....Asked on Twitter whether Musk agreed with their price conclusions at a rate of 10,000 vehicles per week, Musk replied: "Definitely."
But they aren’t building 10,000 units a week. What you’re talking about with your quote is where they might be if they get all their ducks lined up and if there is no throttling of raw material supply down the line. That quote is not where we are today or even the near future but a possible outcome at a time in the future. Lots of conflicting press on this. For eg. (Not claiming the source is 100% robust. But why do you trust other news reports over this one?)
"...an engineering firm purchased four Tesla Model 3s on the grey market to study on behalf of an anonymous major German auto manufacturer. among their key findings: due in part to a huge reduction in cobalt in the batteries (2.8% in the cathodes versus a typical 8%) and a number of simplifications, the parts cost of a Model 3 (in units of 10,000 vehicles per week) is estimated at $18,000, along with $10,000 in production costs....Asked on Twitter whether Musk agreed with their price conclusions at a rate of 10,000 vehicles per week, Musk replied: "Definitely."
Edited by zubzob on Wednesday 5th September 10:46
The reach the future you have to survive the present.
Buy Blue Monday today and the profit margin is there. The point is that the company selling it originally didn’t have the balance sheet to survive the initial volume period. Tesla will still be here in ten years time of that I am quite confident. What I am not remotely confident of is that it will be there as the corporate entity that we see today.
It's Musks fault not oursThey haven’t beaten expectations. They’ve missed them all and are now in a race to get vital revenue in from the delayed 3 before they run out of cash.
$35k 3 hasn’t been launched. They’ve 1bn falling due next year, another lump further down the line, they’ve said they will build another gigafactory but the first isn’t fully function and they haven’t the money for the next ( $2bn short there). They can’t buildnin China and don’t have the money to set up.
Along with the imaginary fully functioning US gigafactory, they have imaginary model 3 sales, imaginary production facilities in China, imaginary second gigafactory, an imaginary truck, an imaginary sports car and and imaginary global sales and servicing network.
What they do have is an inefficient production line with sub par quality control, they had some stock piling up, they’ve huge after sales warranty costs, hardly any cash left, a falling share price, a CEO and founder who seems to be in a breakdown, unhappy shareholders, the largest number of shorters on a stock and an unfriendly domestic government.
These are the reasons why many people happen to think that it’s all a bit of a struggle in stark contrast to how the incumbents are rolling out their premium EVs to the growing global market place.
No amount of religious or faked blog posts, news articles can ever stand in the way of market forces. It was market forces that drove the share price higher and higher and allowed the firm to repeatedly raise capital to keep going but its market forces now that are making it harder and harder for them to nownobtain continued funding.
Mid they don’t get the 3 out the door and hitting targets and that vital cash coming in then they are in a right pickle. The reason so many people can smell blood in the water is simply because there is blood in the water.
$35k 3 hasn’t been launched. They’ve 1bn falling due next year, another lump further down the line, they’ve said they will build another gigafactory but the first isn’t fully function and they haven’t the money for the next ( $2bn short there). They can’t buildnin China and don’t have the money to set up.
Along with the imaginary fully functioning US gigafactory, they have imaginary model 3 sales, imaginary production facilities in China, imaginary second gigafactory, an imaginary truck, an imaginary sports car and and imaginary global sales and servicing network.
What they do have is an inefficient production line with sub par quality control, they had some stock piling up, they’ve huge after sales warranty costs, hardly any cash left, a falling share price, a CEO and founder who seems to be in a breakdown, unhappy shareholders, the largest number of shorters on a stock and an unfriendly domestic government.
These are the reasons why many people happen to think that it’s all a bit of a struggle in stark contrast to how the incumbents are rolling out their premium EVs to the growing global market place.
No amount of religious or faked blog posts, news articles can ever stand in the way of market forces. It was market forces that drove the share price higher and higher and allowed the firm to repeatedly raise capital to keep going but its market forces now that are making it harder and harder for them to nownobtain continued funding.
Mid they don’t get the 3 out the door and hitting targets and that vital cash coming in then they are in a right pickle. The reason so many people can smell blood in the water is simply because there is blood in the water.
Musk rants about child bride.. Thai girlfriend is now 40, which makes her 33 when they met..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6132427/El...
Musk is being really silly.
ok - so a 'thai bride slur'? ie age gap. 40 year old and 63 old
Musk's current girlfriend is 30, Musk is 47......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6132427/El...
Musk is being really silly.
ok - so a 'thai bride slur'? ie age gap. 40 year old and 63 old
Musk's current girlfriend is 30, Musk is 47......
zubzob said:
Spacex was one failed launch away from going bust. The caviliar attitude to risk, is part of what makes Tesla fun to follow.
Yes big auto may be the ultimately beneficiary of Tesla's risk taking and experimentation. But I don't really care, and the cool thing about Musk, for all his flaws, is I don't really think he cares that much either. It takes a special kind of sociopath to have such an attitude.
People say musk is a con. Was betting Spacex on a single launch a con? In a way. It's still cool.
People also Tesla's small size is their biggest disadvantage. Well actually that's their biggest strengh. Big auto are obliged to follow the money into hybrids. Tesla can take risks, and really focus on EV tech. No other company is doing that to such a degree. For reasons you clearly outline.
But back to the thread title, I don't really care if Tesla only have 1% market share in 2025. As long as they survive and innovate, that's great.
EV’s are and always were going to be mainstream, certain technologies have to be ready and reliable. Major manufactures sweat existing assets and if there was a new form of power for automobiles Musk would have to sweat Tesla’s assets until it was viable to swap. Is Musk a “cool” individual we should admire.....probably not. What Musk and Tesla have done is capitalise on emerging technology because they are or were a start up. Personally there are far more people in this world who are to be admired who quietly go about their daily business innovating and helping to make both their lives and the world a better place without causing a sYes big auto may be the ultimately beneficiary of Tesla's risk taking and experimentation. But I don't really care, and the cool thing about Musk, for all his flaws, is I don't really think he cares that much either. It takes a special kind of sociopath to have such an attitude.
People say musk is a con. Was betting Spacex on a single launch a con? In a way. It's still cool.
People also Tesla's small size is their biggest disadvantage. Well actually that's their biggest strengh. Big auto are obliged to follow the money into hybrids. Tesla can take risks, and really focus on EV tech. No other company is doing that to such a degree. For reasons you clearly outline.
But back to the thread title, I don't really care if Tesla only have 1% market share in 2025. As long as they survive and innovate, that's great.
t storm on Twitter or getting angry at people with differing views. Plug Life said:
Musk is a clown, but a clown with a vision.
And is open to taking huge risks.IIRC his (second) wife's family offered to remortgage their house at one point to keep SpaceX going for a few weeks at the time. I dont think they used it in the end, but he openly said he would spend his last penny on his companies and live in their basement if he had to.
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff