when do we get the iPhone 4 moment?
Discussion
I think the initial assumption on phones technology increases being the main "moment" is slightly off because with the phone the big jump was from the phone that was primarily used for doing phone calls to a phone that phoning someone was secondary. There is probably not a distinct model that made that jump. It was a human jump.....
With EV cars the driving from A to B will always be the primary concern whilst the "technology" side increases but does not make that driving secondary.
It's a good question though. My current answer would be the "moment" for EV cars is similar to when mobile phones got under £10 per month. That's what matters.
Taking a tangent, remember when your lawnmower was man powered, then EM took over?
Not only Electric Mowers but two competing technology types, rotary and hovvers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IARuRMLIAU
I guess rotary mowers won, even flymo has them nowadays
https://www.flymo.com/uk/products/lawn-mowers
They also have fully autonomous FSM ( full self mowing ) mowers
Just don't tell Elon .... social media is not ready yet.
With EV cars the driving from A to B will always be the primary concern whilst the "technology" side increases but does not make that driving secondary.
It's a good question though. My current answer would be the "moment" for EV cars is similar to when mobile phones got under £10 per month. That's what matters.
Taking a tangent, remember when your lawnmower was man powered, then EM took over?
Not only Electric Mowers but two competing technology types, rotary and hovvers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IARuRMLIAU
I guess rotary mowers won, even flymo has them nowadays
https://www.flymo.com/uk/products/lawn-mowers
They also have fully autonomous FSM ( full self mowing ) mowers
Just don't tell Elon .... social media is not ready yet.
Edited by Gandahar on Thursday 14th November 18:10
The_Nugget said:
We are right on the tipping point but, price and availability will be key.
e.g Kia Niro I think is right in the sweet spot of range v price. But...12mth waiting list.
EGolf in my opinion is a miss because of range.
Most mainstream manufacturers are about to release their efforts. I think in the next 2 years when availability is good and a second hand market emerges that will be that.
It will take a while though, I expect 10 years plus before EV is more common than ICE.
this is why we're very much not quite at tipping point just yet.e.g Kia Niro I think is right in the sweet spot of range v price. But...12mth waiting list.
EGolf in my opinion is a miss because of range.
Most mainstream manufacturers are about to release their efforts. I think in the next 2 years when availability is good and a second hand market emerges that will be that.
It will take a while though, I expect 10 years plus before EV is more common than ICE.
long delays for new cars and the network (charging) is still a restriction.
i do agree with previous point made that all EVs benefit as the network improves. and in the case of OTA updates, the cars actually do improve.
ZesPak said:
TTmonkey said:
What's wrong with the Model 3 'form factor'? I don't understand.
Should have clarified, the saloon isn't the most liked in Europe. For me I found it too small with our family of 4.
Funny, as my mom made do with a Golf 1. I guess that says more about me than the car though.
It’s not as suitable for a family as it could be. But I think the market is still massive.
It would sell better to private U.K. buyers as a premium hatch.
Gandahar said:
I think the initial assumption on phones technology increases being the main "moment" is slightly off because with the phone the big jump was from the phone that was primarily used for doing phone calls to a phone that phoning someone was secondary. There is probably not a distinct model that made that jump. It was a human jump.....
With EV cars the driving from A to B will always be the primary concern whilst the "technology" side increases but does not make that driving secondary.
It's a good question though. My current answer would be the "moment" for EV cars is similar to when mobile phones got under £10 per month. That's what matters.
Taking a tangent, remember when your lawnmower was man powered, then EM took over?
Not only Electric Mowers but two competing technology types, rotary and hovvers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IARuRMLIAU
I guess rotary mowers won, even flymo has them nowadays
https://www.flymo.com/uk/products/lawn-mowers
They also have fully autonomous FSM ( full self mowing ) mowers
Just don't tell Elon .... social media is not ready yet.
Yes, but FSM mowers work by just bumping into something and then going off in a different direction. With EV cars the driving from A to B will always be the primary concern whilst the "technology" side increases but does not make that driving secondary.
It's a good question though. My current answer would be the "moment" for EV cars is similar to when mobile phones got under £10 per month. That's what matters.
Taking a tangent, remember when your lawnmower was man powered, then EM took over?
Not only Electric Mowers but two competing technology types, rotary and hovvers!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IARuRMLIAU
I guess rotary mowers won, even flymo has them nowadays
https://www.flymo.com/uk/products/lawn-mowers
They also have fully autonomous FSM ( full self mowing ) mowers
Just don't tell Elon .... social media is not ready yet.
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 14th November 18:10
Definitely don’t tell Elon........
TTmonkey said:
ZesPak said:
TTmonkey said:
What's wrong with the Model 3 'form factor'? I don't understand.
Should have clarified, the saloon isn't the most liked in Europe. For me I found it too small with our family of 4.
Funny, as my mom made do with a Golf 1. I guess that says more about me than the car though.
It’s not as suitable for a family as it could be. But I think the market is still massive.
It would sell better to private U.K. buyers as a premium hatch.
the Y will be more than the 3
Tesla are quite canny with marketing
Think the tech is there already. But IMO the real tipping point is coming when the TCO and convenience of an EV is totally and very obviously better than that of a new super mini. For this, prices need to come down, availability needs to get better and the charging problem needs solving -- most people don't have a way to charge at home or work yet. Fast charging on highways is pretty much there already or good enough real soon.
I'd agree with the folk that posted it's a good time to hop on --- if you can afford an EV and have charging. The subsidies will go away, charging points might more crowded, electricity for driving will likely get more expensive (via taxation)...
I'd agree with the folk that posted it's a good time to hop on --- if you can afford an EV and have charging. The subsidies will go away, charging points might more crowded, electricity for driving will likely get more expensive (via taxation)...
I think the "iPhone 4" moment is the wrong question in the sense that whilst many current EV's are actually very good and there's a good range of offerings to suit different requirements, the sticking point is that the infrastructure is nowhere near good enough. Financially a Model 3 is in the same ballpark as a premium hatch, what you lose in higher initial outlay you claw back in reduced fuel costs. Practically though I'm not going to choose a Tesla to get from central Scotland to a south coast ferry or the chunnel: whilst the car will do the job, hearing owners complaining of "zero of twelve chargers available at South Mimms, zero of sixteen at Oxford" gives me no confidence that the network will get me there on time. With the increased volume of Tesla's on the road the network may never have been bigger, but it's also never been busier.
The rest of the similar EV cars are very nice but the charging network is a hodge podge mess; fine for pootling around locally but I'm not going to trust it for time critical journeys.
Main car stays petrol, still.
The rest of the similar EV cars are very nice but the charging network is a hodge podge mess; fine for pootling around locally but I'm not going to trust it for time critical journeys.
Main car stays petrol, still.
dobly said:
We're not there yet. When EV Ford Fiesta and Focus models sell in numbers greater than the petrol / diesel / hybrid numbers, then EV's will have arrived.
True but if you wait till than to get an EV your almost certainly miss out on £0 VED, unregulated home charging, virtually tax free fuel, no mandatory servicing etc.Our EV has literally only cost me x4 tyres and about £900 in electricity to run over 30k miles. That will not/can not continue when mass adoption occurs, garages/dealers rely on servicing as a revenue stream, HMRC needs more ways to tax us not less. Rules/incentives/taxes can all be changed very quickly.
Loads of people predict EV running costs will go up in future, and I 100% agree, but the same people than use this reason as an excuse not to get an EV now?? That is like saying I know the lottery numbers for next week but I'll just sit on my hands because I don't like playing the lottery.
Am pretty certain in 10 years time I'll look back and wonder just how crazily cheap our Tesla was to own/drive, hopefully with any luck though it'll still be under my ownership with 150k+ miles on the clock
.gangzoom said:
True but if you wait till than to get an EV your almost certainly miss out on £0 VED, unregulated home charging, virtually tax free fuel, no mandatory servicing etc.
Our EV has literally only cost me x4 tyres and about £900 in electricity to run over 30k miles. That will not/can not continue when mass adoption occurs, garages/dealers rely on servicing as a revenue stream, HMRC needs more ways to tax us not less. Rules/incentives/taxes can all be changed very quickly.
Loads of people predict EV running costs will go up in future, and I 100% agree, but the same people than use this reason as an excuse not to get an EV now?? That is like saying I know the lottery numbers for next week but I'll just sit on my hands because I don't like playing the lottery.
Am pretty certain in 10 years time I'll look back and wonder just how crazily cheap our Tesla was to own/drive, hopefully with any luck though it'll still be under my ownership with 150k+ miles on the clock.
all fair enough, and i can see how it works well for you. 15k miles pa enjoying the supercharger network (interesting that you even needed to pay £900 when so much could have been free?). Our EV has literally only cost me x4 tyres and about £900 in electricity to run over 30k miles. That will not/can not continue when mass adoption occurs, garages/dealers rely on servicing as a revenue stream, HMRC needs more ways to tax us not less. Rules/incentives/taxes can all be changed very quickly.
Loads of people predict EV running costs will go up in future, and I 100% agree, but the same people than use this reason as an excuse not to get an EV now?? That is like saying I know the lottery numbers for next week but I'll just sit on my hands because I don't like playing the lottery.
Am pretty certain in 10 years time I'll look back and wonder just how crazily cheap our Tesla was to own/drive, hopefully with any luck though it'll still be under my ownership with 150k+ miles on the clock
.VED is £200 give or take for a family hatch and so not a big driver. free for life charging only works if you keep the car, not a likely scenario for most. for high milers i can see how a Tesla makes perfect sense. but for those with mixed and uncertain journeys not so much. for low mileage local use an EV should be a no-brainer but currently there are only limited and expensive choices of zoe and i3. realistically, people choosing EV for their second car/runaround have made a lifestyle choice. there are hybrids, but they're a bit of a sham and about to rightly lose their privileges unless ev range increases.
Another analogy with mobiles: we all knew 3G was going to be the great glorious future from year 2000 when the govt auctioned the licences for 25Bn. second gen iPhone that used 3G was released in 2008. I'm not denying the benefits of EV, just discussing when they'll tip over to mainstream.
kuro68k said:
It does. Eventually the flash memory will wear out and the MCU will brick. They made sure it generates enough log data to wear it out after a certain number of miles.
I've heard that. Quite a costly repair. Grave oversight and something Toyota for example would fix with a recall.gangzoom said:
True but if you wait till than to get an EV your almost certainly miss out on £0 VED, unregulated home charging, virtually tax free fuel, no mandatory servicing etc.
Our EV has literally only cost me x4 tyres and about £900 in electricity to run over 30k miles. That will not/can not continue when mass adoption occurs, garages/dealers rely on servicing as a revenue stream, HMRC needs more ways to tax us not less. Rules/incentives/taxes can all be changed very quickly.
Loads of people predict EV running costs will go up in future, and I 100% agree, but the same people than use this reason as an excuse not to get an EV now?? That is like saying I know the lottery numbers for next week but I'll just sit on my hands because I don't like playing the lottery.
Am pretty certain in 10 years time I'll look back and wonder just how crazily cheap our Tesla was to own/drive, hopefully with any luck though it'll still be under my ownership with 150k+ miles on the clock.
That's all very well, but your car was extremely expensive, so most people would have had to pay out significant amounts of interest on a loan of some sort, pretty much negating any savings. I suspect your car has "literally" cost you a lot more than £900, especially when adding depreciation.Our EV has literally only cost me x4 tyres and about £900 in electricity to run over 30k miles. That will not/can not continue when mass adoption occurs, garages/dealers rely on servicing as a revenue stream, HMRC needs more ways to tax us not less. Rules/incentives/taxes can all be changed very quickly.
Loads of people predict EV running costs will go up in future, and I 100% agree, but the same people than use this reason as an excuse not to get an EV now?? That is like saying I know the lottery numbers for next week but I'll just sit on my hands because I don't like playing the lottery.
Am pretty certain in 10 years time I'll look back and wonder just how crazily cheap our Tesla was to own/drive, hopefully with any luck though it'll still be under my ownership with 150k+ miles on the clock
.The usual line we've all read many times before is true. Lots and lots of people have nowhere to charge overnight - the "always full in the morning" line we hear so often from the EV evangelists simply does not apply.
You also need to factor in the amount of coffee required when owning an EV, it seems that EV owners have to drink an awful lot of the stuff whilst charging
Here's an example:
My situation is pretty good for EV ownership.
I already use an EV to get to work (train) so don't use the car every day
I do 5,000 miles a year in my Golf - that's about 420 miles a month - 2 or 3 charges
I have a driveway so can charge
Most of my journeys are pretty short - a 100-mile round trip is a long one for me
BUT
A few times a year I visit friends where there is no off-street parking or charging points, and I don't want to have to beg for other people's electricity.
I don't want to have to stop-en route for half an hour while my car charges. The Golf has a 400-odd mile range, so I don't need to fill up en route, and it's only a few minutes if I do need to.
An EV that is equivalent to the Golf has a significantly higher purchase price. The cheapest Tesla Model 3 is £9k more than I paid for the Golf. That's about 60,000 miles worth of fuel. That will take me 12 years to recoup.
Add in the additional inconvenience, and it's not yet compelling and why I plan to keep the Golf for at least 10 years and then move to EV.
LG9k said:
That's all very well, but your car was extremely expensive, so most people would have had to pay out significant amounts of interest on a loan of some sort, pretty much negating any savings. I suspect your car has "literally" cost you a lot more than £900, especially when adding depreciation.
The usual line we've all read many times before is true. Lots and lots of people have nowhere to charge overnight - the "always full in the morning" line we hear so often from the EV evangelists simply does not apply.
You also need to factor in the amount of coffee required when owning an EV, it seems that EV owners have to drink an awful lot of the stuff whilst charging
Here's an example:
My situation is pretty good for EV ownership.
I already use an EV to get to work (train) so don't use the car every day
I do 5,000 miles a year in my Golf - that's about 420 miles a month - 2 or 3 charges
I have a driveway so can charge
Most of my journeys are pretty short - a 100-mile round trip is a long one for me
BUT
A few times a year I visit friends where there is no off-street parking or charging points, and I don't want to have to beg for other people's electricity.
I don't want to have to stop-en route for half an hour while my car charges. The Golf has a 400-odd mile range, so I don't need to fill up en route, and it's only a few minutes if I do need to.
An EV that is equivalent to the Golf has a significantly higher purchase price. The cheapest Tesla Model 3 is £9k more than I paid for the Golf. That's about 60,000 miles worth of fuel. That will take me 12 years to recoup.
Add in the additional inconvenience, and it's not yet compelling and why I plan to keep the Golf for at least 10 years and then move to EV.
If owning an EV wouldn't suit you, then you're doing the right thing in not buying one. I don't think you need to explain why it wouldn't suit you. The usual line we've all read many times before is true. Lots and lots of people have nowhere to charge overnight - the "always full in the morning" line we hear so often from the EV evangelists simply does not apply.
You also need to factor in the amount of coffee required when owning an EV, it seems that EV owners have to drink an awful lot of the stuff whilst charging
Here's an example:
My situation is pretty good for EV ownership.
I already use an EV to get to work (train) so don't use the car every day
I do 5,000 miles a year in my Golf - that's about 420 miles a month - 2 or 3 charges
I have a driveway so can charge
Most of my journeys are pretty short - a 100-mile round trip is a long one for me
BUT
A few times a year I visit friends where there is no off-street parking or charging points, and I don't want to have to beg for other people's electricity.
I don't want to have to stop-en route for half an hour while my car charges. The Golf has a 400-odd mile range, so I don't need to fill up en route, and it's only a few minutes if I do need to.
An EV that is equivalent to the Golf has a significantly higher purchase price. The cheapest Tesla Model 3 is £9k more than I paid for the Golf. That's about 60,000 miles worth of fuel. That will take me 12 years to recoup.
Add in the additional inconvenience, and it's not yet compelling and why I plan to keep the Golf for at least 10 years and then move to EV.
There are many circumstances where an EV does suit, though. And as such, would be a viable alternative.
UnderSteerD said:
If owning an EV wouldn't suit you, then you're doing the right thing in not buying one. I don't think you need to explain why it wouldn't suit you.
There are many circumstances where an EV does suit, though. And as such, would be a viable alternative.
Wow, point missed by a mile, there.There are many circumstances where an EV does suit, though. And as such, would be a viable alternative.
I'll simplify.
For many people, most of the time an EV is practicable, but for the most part (at the moment), it's more expensive and less convenient than an ICE.
This means that we are nowhere near "the iphone4 moment" as postulated by the OP.
It'll be a few years yet.
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