Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?

[NDNDNDND]

SWoll said:

I don't think he was suggesting it's 'all' about cars but I assume you would agree that especially in cities/towns the vast majority of local air pollution is caused by ICE vehicles diesel buses and lorries.

I don't think the roll out of expensive EV cars to rich people should be subsidised by the government. The money should be spent electrifying public transport and local goods transportation. It would have a much more substantial effect upon local air quality than making Teslas cheaper.

[dgswk]

LimJim said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

Good job you included log burners in this list!

F**k, I'm doing all of the above right now (apart from the meat bit) whilst charging my EV......

Why have we gone EV? Cause it works out cheaper overall for our daily commute (we lease cars) taking into account fuel. Green credentials? Don't know really, someone has to be an earlier adopter I suppose. Nothing else serious on the horizon for a good few years (Hydrogen etc.).

[Richard-D]

jamoor said:

Roofless Toothless said:

Only 40% of the UK rail network is electrified at the moment.

To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.

Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.

Luckily the motorways don’t need overhead electricity cables running up and down them otherwise I would agree.

Massive logic fail there. Why are electric trains not capable of running as BEVs?

[Richard-D]

dgswk said:

LimJim said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

Good job you included log burners in this list!

F**k, I'm doing all of the above right now (apart from the meat bit) whilst charging my EV......

Why have we gone EV? Cause it works out cheaper overall for our daily commute (we lease cars) taking into account fuel. Green credentials? Don't know really, someone has to be an earlier adopter I suppose. Nothing else serious on the horizon for a good few years (Hydrogen etc.).

Which is the only real reason you'll get anyone to change. You're not doing anything uniquely bad there. In fact you're way ahead of the blinkered side of the EV argument as you're willing to see it.

[Richard-D]

andyalan10 said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

You forgot having everything delivered to the door by several different diesel vans every day, and driving the kids half way across the town because you don't like the exam results of your local school. Oh and having the cleaner, the childminder, the gardener and the handyman all coming to your house in ICE vehicles.

Exactly that. I had hoped that Covid lockdown would be the catalyst (pun intended) for changes to the way we work that would have a genuine positive impact on the environment. The government's actions in convincing people back to the office suggests we're just not ready for that yet though.

[Pica-Pica]

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

Diesel car.....Tick
Log burner....Tick and yes it is very NICE (but our English Teacher taught us to never use ‘nice’)
Tumble drier....Tick
Flights.... No
Smart phone....No
Imported veg....No. Local
Meat....No. Local

[SWoll]

NDNDNDND said:

SWoll said:

I don't think he was suggesting it's 'all' about cars but I assume you would agree that especially in cities/towns the vast majority of local air pollution is caused by ICE vehicles diesel buses and lorries.

I don't think the roll out of expensive EV cars to rich people should be subsidised by the government. The money should be spent electrifying public transport and local goods transportation. It would have a much more substantial effect upon local air quality than making Teslas cheaper.

They had to to start the ball rolling in order to get the trickle down into the used market and there are plenty of new and used EV's available already that are considerably cheaper than anything Tesla offer. We've got very different views on what constitutes 'rich' if you think someone looking at buying an EV Corsa or Peugeot 208 for £25k or indeed someone paying £40-55k for a Tesla 3 falls into that group?

[dgswk]

Richard-D said:

Which is the only real reason you'll get anyone to change. You're not doing anything uniquely bad there. In fact you're way ahead of the blinkered side of the EV argument as you're willing to see it.

100% I'm not doing anything bad, selfish in my logic? Maybe, but we all human, and actually if it helps drive change as a consequence then its a bonus. I don't believe for one minute, with the batteries, that its green, but its a step on the way to something better than oil. And no, you're not having my woodburner as I live in the semi-sticks with access to more windfall timber than I could ever burn.

We didn't test drive our EV, just did the maths. As it happens (luckily!) it is SOOOO much nicer and easier to drive for a daily commute than any petrol / diesel normal car we've had. And we've had some nice premium new stuff over the years as company cars etc.

Its the same reason I moved from a petrol company car to a diesel one back in the early 2000's. At the time, Govt thinking was diesel was better and encouraged it, then u-turned. The same will happen with EV / Batteries when there is a better alternative, and I'll probably swap then for the tax breaks or whatever scheme they invent to tempt early adopters. Got a feeling it will be a while though.

Govt have just given the notional green light to Sizewell C Nuclear if anyone has noticed that in the news, and Rolls Royce are entering the UK Nuclear Market too, after Hitachi / Horizon dropped out at Wylfa last year. There's a message there whether you like it or not. And yeah, post Covid, its a mechanism for pumping money into the economy - rather than just hand it out - medium/long term investment in infrastructure to create jobs. IMHO, a better investment than HS2, but whatever, they must have their logic, and I'm not into the politics of that or new nuclear.

All the petrol stations out there will need partial conversion to rapid charge facilities (with Cafe's for something to do for 20mins), Kerbside / Streetlight charging will need to be introduced, chargers at the village shop, community centre, swathes of home charging points. Some businesses, and thus their employees, will do well, which will ripple through the economy and if our dates are earlier than any other countries, we will export the knowhow.

Its massive - absolutely massive and a huge ask by 2030. But even if it was 2050, we'd still all moan and say never, so aim high. And if there is demand - and there certainly will be in 10 years time by the sounds of things - the big players will do it, they will have to evolve, and now a lot quicker than they thought.

Just need the Govt to know their limits, invest the cash but then stay out of it. On the basis that the useless f**kers cant even roll out Smart Meters without screwing it up, I very much doubt they could deliver nationwide EV infrastructure.

Interesting times!

[rjfp1962]

Maybe. The EV will need to have a real life 300-350 mile range and the infrastructure will need to be hugely better.
Then there is battery disposal? The number of them will increase massively, but coming in from a different angle for moment. 2029 might be a good year for new ICE car sales....!

[dgswk]

Certainly not selling my toy ICE for a while either, I'd go as far as saying it would be coming with me into retirement after this, but I fear the dashboard tech will have dated ferociously by then and be unrepairable when it goes bang. So I'm kind of thinking Exige Sport 350, with mostly analogue dials and an old fashioned head unit might be the way to go while you still can.....

[rscott]

andyalan10 said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

You forgot having everything delivered to the door by several different diesel vans every day, and driving the kids half way across the town because you don't like the exam results of your local school. Oh and having the cleaner, the childminder, the gardener and the handyman all coming to your house in ICE vehicles.

DPD running several EV vans near me (semi rural area)

[kambites]

Of course it's possible. The question is whether it would cripple the economy.

Personally I think 2030 is both possible and just about reasonable. If they stop the sale of new ICE in 2030, there will be a lot of ICE on the road until around 2050 which is plenty of time for the "I do a million miles a day" brigade to adapt.

Edited by kambites on Saturday 14th November 14:55

[Monkeylegend]

I wonder when our Gvt will announce the EV tax as they have in Melbourne.

[Bobtherallyfan]

kambites said:

Of course it's possible. The question is whether it would cripple the economy.

Personally I think 2030 is both possible and just about reasonable. If they stop the sale of new ICE in 2030, there will be a lot of ICE on the road until around 2050 which is plenty of time for the "I do a million miles a day" brigade to adapt.

Edited by kambites on Saturday 14th November 14:55

But who is going to pay for the infrastructure required and where is it going to go? The UK is effectively bankrupt and all this talk of putting chargers in petrol stations is a virtual non starter in the numbers required. Most small stations only have room for a few cars now, let alone ones sitting there for 30 mins. Its hard enough getting petrol now because someone is blocking two spaces to buy a croissant. Hybrids just seem to make more sense a large portion of society.

[Monkeylegend]

Bobtherallyfan said:

But who is going to pay for the infrastructure

We will when they introduce the EV tax alongside increasing taxation on diesel and petrol cars.

[kambites]

Bobtherallyfan said:

But who is going to pay for the infrastructure required and where is it going to go?

Who's going to pay for it? Most likely those who insist on sticking with internal combustion engines; I think we'll see petrol prices ramped up dramatically over the next few years.

Where's it going to go? I suspect everywhere. If more than a handful of percent of charging is done with rapid chargers, the government has seriously screwed up.

[davettf2]

Non ICE cars by 2030, fine. Its not the vehicle that will be the issue. Infrastructure with regards to power for recharging electric cars will be both an issue for supply and for those living in dwellings without off road parking. Hydrogen cell vehicles will not be practical within 10 years as mainstream transport.

I'll stay with my PHEV for local driving and carry on enjoying the growl of a 6 cyl. ICE classic for longer journeys and just a good blast for pleasure!

[anonymous-user]

kambites said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

But who is going to pay for the infrastructure required and where is it going to go?

Who's going to pay for it? Most likely those who insist on sticking with internal combustion engines; I think we'll see petrol prices ramped up dramatically over the next few years.

Where's it going to go? I suspect everywhere. If more than a handful of percent of charging is done with rapid chargers, the government has seriously screwed up.

If you think about it people might not simply be insistant on sticking with ICE. It'll more likely be through necessity as either they haven't the money to make the jump, that BEV isn't practical for their working life or perhaps they haven't access to off-street parking.
Taxing them would be unfair. The taxation has to be applied to the EV drivers to pay for the infrastructure that is dedicated to BEV.
As mentioned above, PHEV or MHEV might be the stepping stone.

[dgswk]

Or maybe, as you've banned it, you drive the petrol / diesel providers to invest and deliver the infrastructure, otherwise they are dead and buried businesses along with Woolworths and half of the high street. And the stockmarket won't stand for that, they are too big globally.

Until such a stance is taken, apart from dabbling in the charger market (BP, looking at you) and a token effort at diversification into renewables so it looks good on the annual CSR bks, most of them will carry on regardless. Which is why the network currently is so crap.

So for the time being, Govt "subsidises" early adopting Joe Public - ie. low / no tax, but with a long term plan to charge per mile once there is no going back. Probably hands out a few green grants too along the way and some corporation tax breaks too. Different scale, and nowhere near as complex, but not so different to Solar and the feed-in tariffs.

Joe Public = Range is crap, too expensive, nowhere to charge
Oil Company = I'm not investing in Infra, still selling fuel thanks, but I'll do my token bit so we look good
Car Company = Volumes not high enough, not really investing in Technology
And repeat.

Govt = Big Picture, we have to do something and drive demand, or we will be in this chicken and egg situation until the oil is gone. And the post Covid green tax breaks look good on the manifesto as a bit of a bonus.

[kambites]

anonymous said:

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