Rocketing electricity prices and EV Viability
Discussion
Dave Hedgehog said:
coetzeeh said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
barian said:
If electricity for EV's were taxed at the same rate as petrol (58p per litre duty plus VAT on base cost and duty) , your EV cost would be over 40p/mile. Not going to happen anytime soon no doubt, but in the longer term?
they wont tax electric, to easy to avoid unless they tax all of it which what will be easy to avoid is if they put a tax on the EV charging component, just charge with a granny lead or a dumb charger and tell them you mine bitcoins
Dave Hedgehog said:
I am about to come out of contract (14p/kwh) and go onto a substantially higher capped tariff ...
However I was also quoted a product reflecting the real cost of elec outside of the energy price cap of 42.47p/KWh ...
That would give a cost per 1000 miles of approx £123 which is about the same as an unleaded car avg 52mpg
Once the next price cap period is over we could be paying over 40p+ if the market has not stabilised, there may not be much incentive to pay a lot extra for an EV over an ICE car, If you cant get on a special overnight tariff
I totally agree. My current diesel averages 52mpg and I’ve recently ordered an EV which I’m hoping will average 3.5mpKWh. I can’t get on an EV tariff for now and also have been quoted in excess of 30p/KWh which although not as expensive as diesel, doesn’t help to offset the extra cost of the car. However I was also quoted a product reflecting the real cost of elec outside of the energy price cap of 42.47p/KWh ...
That would give a cost per 1000 miles of approx £123 which is about the same as an unleaded car avg 52mpg
Once the next price cap period is over we could be paying over 40p+ if the market has not stabilised, there may not be much incentive to pay a lot extra for an EV over an ICE car, If you cant get on a special overnight tariff
As others have said, petrol/diesel costs are likely to continue to rise which will help the electricity costs seem less of a sting but I’m hoping to get on an EV tariff later in the year. I’m still in two-minds though as the diesel will be mine soon and save me a few hundred pounds per month in car payments over the EV.
spaceship said:
Dave Hedgehog said:
I am about to come out of contract (14p/kwh) and go onto a substantially higher capped tariff ...
However I was also quoted a product reflecting the real cost of elec outside of the energy price cap of 42.47p/KWh ...
That would give a cost per 1000 miles of approx £123 which is about the same as an unleaded car avg 52mpg
Once the next price cap period is over we could be paying over 40p+ if the market has not stabilised, there may not be much incentive to pay a lot extra for an EV over an ICE car, If you cant get on a special overnight tariff
I totally agree. My current diesel averages 52mpg and I’ve recently ordered an EV which I’m hoping will average 3.5mpKWh. I can’t get on an EV tariff for now and also have been quoted in excess of 30p/KWh which although not as expensive as diesel, doesn’t help to offset the extra cost of the car. However I was also quoted a product reflecting the real cost of elec outside of the energy price cap of 42.47p/KWh ...
That would give a cost per 1000 miles of approx £123 which is about the same as an unleaded car avg 52mpg
Once the next price cap period is over we could be paying over 40p+ if the market has not stabilised, there may not be much incentive to pay a lot extra for an EV over an ICE car, If you cant get on a special overnight tariff
As others have said, petrol/diesel costs are likely to continue to rise which will help the electricity costs seem less of a sting but I’m hoping to get on an EV tariff later in the year. I’m still in two-minds though as the diesel will be mine soon and save me a few hundred pounds per month in car payments over the EV.
Assuming you can, the 4 hours charge overnight (schedule it via charger app) should keep you topped up and help to make your diesel/EV choice a little easier!
Dave Hedgehog said:
barian said:
If electricity for EV's were taxed at the same rate as petrol (58p per litre duty plus VAT on base cost and duty) , your EV cost would be over 40p/mile. Not going to happen anytime soon no doubt, but in the longer term?
they wont tax electric, to easy to avoid unless they tax all of it which would hit low income families badly (they are going to be crucified anyway with the upcoming increases)my monies on camera based road pricing, been working for 20 years in London
As someone who used to work in the energy industry, not only will there be a £20bn+ tax hole from fossil fuels, there is another angle which comes into play when looking at night tariffs and storage batteries which is exposure to the energy companies of selling low and using/buying high.
Keep an eye out in the future for TOU (type of use) tariffs which in my opinion is exactly where we are going. There is a reason, that home chargers now have to be "smart" and its not because they want to give you a snazzy app on your phone. Soon, you will have 3 rates example: 26p Day Rate (Peak), 7p Night Rate (Off Peak) and 35p fixed rate for Car Charging regardless of time.
Its a few years off yet becoming the norm but is the infrastructure is being put in place now.
YorkshireWhisky said:
I'll put a virtual pint on electricity at 75p/KWh plus VAT at 25% by Summer 2023. It's going up 40% this year (don't fight it) and a few solar panels with a couple of double D cells strapped to the garage wall isn't going to help.
To be fair some well strapped double D's usually helps most things. However I do agree about prices only going up!
YorkshireWhisky said:
I'll put a virtual pint on electricity at 75p/KWh plus VAT at 25% by Summer 2023. It's going up 40% this year (don't fight it) and a few solar panels with a couple of double D cells strapped to the garage wall isn't going to help.
So, my current 14.7p per kwh will escalate to 5.3 times that in a year and a bit, and the government at the same time will put VAT on fuel by five times its current 5% for good measure, even the Tories aren't that daft/I think that would be the end of UK civilization, its bad enough what's coming without hysterical hyperbolic statements.
My energy bill would then be £1100 a month or so based on that, which would be a fair chunk of my disposable income, and I am fairly stable financially, most folk cant take the projected doubling, never mind 5 times, it would be utterly catastrophic, cause thousands of deaths, financial meltdown, dogs and cats living together.....
More Energy company f
kwittery.
Currently with Scottish Power. I have via OctopusEV a Tesla landing mid feb. Octopus putting the charger in etc.
I have tried calling Scottish Power customer services for sometime now - but missed two of my birthdays sat on hold.
I live in the sticks and been trying to get Scottish Powers website and 'EV Tarriff' to make any sense. It just throws an error message.
When i did speak to them this morning, They also say it wouldn't matter anyway as I am not a dual fuel customer, I would not be eligible for their EV tariff. I only have Electric. There is no gas in the village. Makes no odds.
Does this mean Scottish Power are going to also ignore as a customer base all these Electricity only new builds? all customers like me that have to have oil as no Gas???
Finally I have learnt, I need a S2 type smart meter for any decent off peak rates as you all know.
Because they cant get a signal out of the S1 I have they wont replace to a S2.
Octopus say I can switch to them. But they wont send me a new Meter for maybe 4-6 months.
kwittery.Currently with Scottish Power. I have via OctopusEV a Tesla landing mid feb. Octopus putting the charger in etc.
I have tried calling Scottish Power customer services for sometime now - but missed two of my birthdays sat on hold.
I live in the sticks and been trying to get Scottish Powers website and 'EV Tarriff' to make any sense. It just throws an error message.
When i did speak to them this morning, They also say it wouldn't matter anyway as I am not a dual fuel customer, I would not be eligible for their EV tariff. I only have Electric. There is no gas in the village. Makes no odds.
Does this mean Scottish Power are going to also ignore as a customer base all these Electricity only new builds? all customers like me that have to have oil as no Gas???
Finally I have learnt, I need a S2 type smart meter for any decent off peak rates as you all know.
Because they cant get a signal out of the S1 I have they wont replace to a S2.
Octopus say I can switch to them. But they wont send me a new Meter for maybe 4-6 months.
Edited by PushedDover on Wednesday 19th January 12:06
peterperkins said:
YorkshireWhisky said:
I'll put a virtual pint on electricity at 75p/KWh plus VAT at 25% by Summer 2023. It's going up 40% this year (don't fight it) and a few solar panels with a couple of double D cells strapped to the garage wall isn't going to help.
To be fair some well strapped double D's usually helps most things. However I do agree about prices only going up!
During summer I increase my charge limit on the Model3 to 90% in order to use more of my generated electric, but overall I'm running the car for free, and FIT payments are higher than I pay Octopus for the small amount of "off peak" that I use.
Certainly higher prices will someday catch up with me, but even then it'll only affect 25% of the year, and while there an off peak tariff available, I'll be somewhat insulated from it.
From this year all new home charging points have to be metered separately. So you can guarantee the rate for charging your Q7 equivalent will be a lot higher than for Doris to run her fan heater.
https://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
c6r said:
From this year all new home charging points have to be metered separately. So you can guarantee the rate for charging your Q7 equivalent will be a lot higher than for Doris to run her fan heater.
https://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
The article reads like all home chargers new and old will need to be set up like this. Wonder what happens if you don’t have a smart meter. https://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
c6r said:
From this year all new home charging points have to be metered separately. So you can guarantee the rate for charging your Q7 equivalent will be a lot higher than for Doris to run her fan heater.
https://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
Unfortunately this is misinformation from ABD. Thread running here a week or so agohttps://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Edited by No ideas for a name on Wednesday 19th January 20:39
Dave Hedgehog said:
barian said:
If electricity for EV's were taxed at the same rate as petrol (58p per litre duty plus VAT on base cost and duty) , your EV cost would be over 40p/mile. Not going to happen anytime soon no doubt, but in the longer term?
they wont tax electric, to easy to avoid unless they tax all of it which would hit low income families badly (they are going to be crucified anyway with the upcoming increases)my monies on camera based road pricing, been working for 20 years in London
Camera based road pricing will continue to be added to cities because it's too much money for local authorities to ignore. And we may see it get added to motorways as it is very simple to apply and at a low energy gig fee wouldn't cause drivers to head across country. But it can't work for much beyond that.
Energy taxation is already on the cards. The current market situation will push that back but everything is building towards taxing households away from gas as well as chasing electricity taxes up behind that.
Re current energy prices, oil isn't likely to fall much from here unless Iran decide to flood the market now the US have pulled back military control and sanctions but the US is still blockading Venezuela and China is sitting there as a huge buyer still. But OPEC want a $75 base as below that they start not having enough money to pay off killers and revolutionaries. In short, when oil is below that level the Saudi royals genuinely fear for their lives.
At the same time, we are not in any kind of position to reduces petrol taxes and nor is there an incentive to do so as we need to grow the EV market as quickly as possible so it becomes large enough to tax.
Gas is a tricky one. We are cripplingly dependent on gas as a legacy of NSG self sufficiency of the past. But we now have to pay USD to import gas via unfriendly economies, economies which aren't particularly stable at present. At the same time China are having to buy up huge amounts of supply and that doesn't look like it will lift any time soon. And the GBP is weakening against the USD and if the FED does raise rates then that weakening will continue so gas is going to get more expensive due to the weaker GBP.
The only thing on the near term horizon that could alleviate our domestic electricity price pressure would be an economic rebound this year that was above expectations and strengthened the GBP plus a really windy summer that meant gas reserves could be rebuilt ahead of next winter.
Even then, even if gas prices fall the utilities must maintain higher prices in order to recoup the losses they are currently incurring due to the energy cap so there will be a 12 month lag on shop prices versus wholesale.
So, people who have been looking to switch to EVs due to fiscal constraints from fuel efficient cars may evaporate, not just because EVs don't represent the potential savings they did but also just because their disposable income has fallen due to higher utility and food costs so they just won't be replacing the car or having to trade down.
On the flipside, there will be other people who own higher prices, non frugal cars who will be more tempted to switch to EV despite higher electricity costs. Big tax savings and higher petrol costs will keep driving those people to EVs.
So, in short, it's very hard to see what sort of overall impact energy pricing will have on EVs but the biggest U.K. market is London where ULEZ is about to start taxing modern ICE cars so the demand for EVs will not likely to be impacted whatever the price electricity goes to or how long it stays high. We might see a slight stall at the budget EV end which would be a shame as that's barely got going but maybe there will be no change to the premium end.
I'm hoping that not only will we see a return to more sensible prices for used cars this year but also that the high electricity prices have an impact on cheaper used EVs as I'm looking for an i3 as a local shed but they aren't fair value at the moment.
J4CKO said:
YorkshireWhisky said:
I'll put a virtual pint on electricity at 75p/KWh plus VAT at 25% by Summer 2023. It's going up 40% this year (don't fight it) and a few solar panels with a couple of double D cells strapped to the garage wall isn't going to help.
So, my current 14.7p per kwh will escalate to 5.3 times that in a year and a bit, and the government at the same time will put VAT on fuel by five times its current 5% for good measure, even the Tories aren't that daft/I think that would be the end of UK civilization, its bad enough what's coming without hysterical hyperbolic statements.
My energy bill would then be £1100 a month or so based on that, which would be a fair chunk of my disposable income, and I am fairly stable financially, most folk cant take the projected doubling, never mind 5 times, it would be utterly catastrophic, cause thousands of deaths, financial meltdown, dogs and cats living together.....
YorkshireWhisky said:
One of us will be right, and I hope it is you, but I have a feeling it will be me.
I have a feeling that your dealer has given you something else. 
The drivers for the spike in gas have basically been delivered and it's now mostly a matter of time to work it through the system. China's demand isn't going to increase as they have finite storage and current demand is about restocking. Even our demand is about restocking as much as anything. The current prices are very much here to stay. We've had a long period of artificially low prices plus new firms discounting and driving lower prices. They've now gone bust and the incumbents need to recoup. But once depleted reserves are replaced where is the demand going to come from to spike wholesale prices? It's not like we're all going to be opening the windows and cranking the boilers up. There's no looming demand spike. All we're really seeing now is our domestic prices playing catch-up to the real world and from an artificially depressed price.
YorkshireWhisky said:
One of us will be right, and I hope it is you, but I have a feeling it will be me.
That would mean home charging an EV would cost as much as filling the tank. What is driving these increases in price? Does this consider our shift away from coal and other less renewable energy sources?Agree with DonkeyApple re the threshold taxation - this already exists with Climate Change Levy being applied to accounts with consumption above 12,000 kwh per annum.
Household bills are likely to remain elevated as suppliers who don't own generation assets have had to hedge at current price points through the Wholesale market mechanism.
The wholesale market is in backwardation - commodity is trading at £145/MWh for this summer vs £71/MWh for Summer '24 so a bit of smart buying may help in 2 years or so - but gone are the days where we were hedging at below £40/MWh.
Household bills are likely to remain elevated as suppliers who don't own generation assets have had to hedge at current price points through the Wholesale market mechanism.
The wholesale market is in backwardation - commodity is trading at £145/MWh for this summer vs £71/MWh for Summer '24 so a bit of smart buying may help in 2 years or so - but gone are the days where we were hedging at below £40/MWh.
No ideas for a name said:
c6r said:
From this year all new home charging points have to be metered separately. So you can guarantee the rate for charging your Q7 equivalent will be a lot higher than for Doris to run her fan heater.
https://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
Unfortunately this is misinformation from ABD. Thread running here a week or so agohttps://www.abd.org.uk/new-law-means-road-pricing-...
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Edited by No ideas for a name on Wednesday 19th January 20:39
E.g. this transcript of the discussion in parliament https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/debate/2021-1... says:
"It is important to note that the instrument maintains consumer choice. It mandates that charge points must have the functionality to support smart charging, but consumers will still be in control of when they charge. They will continue to be able to choose the energy tariff that suits their needs and decide whether to subscribe to smart charging services. Some consumers may not engage with smart charging so, to encourage them to charge at times of low electricity demand, the instrument ensures that charge points are preset not to charge at peak times. However, and importantly, the instrument mandates that consumers must be informed and asked to confirm this setting during first use, and they must be able to edit it at any point in the future."
I don't see why this should be surprising or labelled as some sort of conspiracy loon material. When ICE dies the government will have a £30bn hole in the finances from the loss of fuel duty and as it happens, the nations finances aren't exactly in a great state at the moment anyway.
Using smart metering to fix this seems like a very easy and obvious thing to do. I can't think of any reason why they wouldn't do it. Not only will it replace the lost fuel duty, but it's a massive vote winner - you can keep old people alive by giving them cheap electricity while at the same time imposing punitive prices on people who run big electricity-guzzling EVs.
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