Tesla Model 3 revealed

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Discussion

Blaster72

10,927 posts

199 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
Yup, it's been in the motoring press. Much higher demand than expected for the all electic car. Battery supplier can't keep up.

http://www.hybridcars.com/hyundai-ioniq-ev-sufferi...

Shame the battery they have is so small, only 28kWh which in winter is going to struggle to give you 130 miles of range.

otolith

56,550 posts

206 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
Dazed and Confused said:
otolith said:
Dazed and Confused said:
Supposed to be a car for the masses, in the States the cheapest one is 15000 Dollars more than the cheapest Camaro.
You'd clearly still hate it if it cured cancer and brought world peace, what's the real reason for your emotional response to it?
Sorry, your question doesn't make much sense.
Why do you have an irrational hatred of EVs?

Amateurish

7,772 posts

224 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
Do we have a UK market price yet?

babatunde

736 posts

192 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
Blaster72 said:
Yup, it's been in the motoring press. Much higher demand than expected for the all electic car. Battery supplier can't keep up.

http://www.hybridcars.com/hyundai-ioniq-ev-sufferi...

Shame the battery they have is so small, only 28kWh which in winter is going to struggle to give you 130 miles of range.
Yet we have people criticizing Tesla and the route they are taking.

One of the reasons I think Tesla will succeed is that they seem to have looked at the current limiting factors of EVs, range and battery supply and addressed these in parallel (Superchargers/Gigafactory) while moving towards mass production.

I would have preferred Model 3 as a hatchback, but the biggest market want a saloon, Model Y is going to be a Mini SUV, which addresses those concerns I think, now if only they would deliver the damm thing in RHD in the next 2 years

John Galt

181 posts

192 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
It's been on sale for just over year now and EV sales seem pretty non-existent. According to the UK CEO it's all been hybrids working the tax angles.

Without the on trend hype that Tesla has to create demand the current range of EVs from mainstream manufacturers does tend to show there is little true demand in the market.

Hybrids only really sell because the electric motor games the taxation system not because people really demand them.

This is the real issue with EVs. Despite all their obvious benefits and the fact that many people are very happy with the idea of owning one people aren't stumping up the premium to own one over an ICE without that premium delivering some kind of brand award such as Tesla.

Remove the tax incentives and legislation on hybrids and that market would collapse.

The fundamental problem with the market is that people don't want to pay more to validate their beliefs but they will defile and trample over any belief that they have to save 5p.

The eco angle is all tripe. No one cares. It's why so many eco warriors have multiple children and/or own dogs etc, it's all a facade, a veneer of verbiage and bks that lies thinly and clearly transparently over consumerism. It is consumerism that is key. We don't buy a £5,000 panda and donate 5p to ourselves. We spend £5,000 on ourselves and invest 5p in some eco tripe that specifically exists to pay off our guilt not to help any fking pandas. You could massacre a forest of pandas and no one would give a crap beyond writing baseless drivel on Twitter but take away their store cards and you'll spark a bloody revolution.

This is why EVs have to be cheaper than ICE to succeed. Or legislation making ICEs basically illegal.

The Western consumer is the creature that votes for a dog in a human talent competition and then gets angry that the human who trained it and did all the work gets the prize money. These are the creatures that you can get to spend £1000 they never needed to spend so as to save £50 a year on VED.

They don't give a flying fk about the environment or any of the buzzwords they like to say on the street they just want to buy what looks cheapest so they have enough cash leftover to finance instalments on Netflix or whatever.

The moment EVs become genuinely cheaper than ICE then we will see ICE demand disappear overnight amongst the basic transport consumer and you'll see the Grid radically adjusting to the new benefits and inconveniences. Until then we're going to be stuck in this world of tax payers subsidising a minority and corporates paying lip service to eco twaddle.
Absolutely spot on. Unfortunately the vast majority of western consumers will go on happily, and willingly, taking the blue pill.

anonymous-user

56 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
John Galt said:
DonkeyApple said:
It's been on sale for just over year now and EV sales seem pretty non-existent. According to the UK CEO it's all been hybrids working the tax angles.

Without the on trend hype that Tesla has to create demand the current range of EVs from mainstream manufacturers does tend to show there is little true demand in the market.

Hybrids only really sell because the electric motor games the taxation system not because people really demand them.

This is the real issue with EVs. Despite all their obvious benefits and the fact that many people are very happy with the idea of owning one people aren't stumping up the premium to own one over an ICE without that premium delivering some kind of brand award such as Tesla.

Remove the tax incentives and legislation on hybrids and that market would collapse.

The fundamental problem with the market is that people don't want to pay more to validate their beliefs but they will defile and trample over any belief that they have to save 5p.

The eco angle is all tripe. No one cares. It's why so many eco warriors have multiple children and/or own dogs etc, it's all a facade, a veneer of verbiage and bks that lies thinly and clearly transparently over consumerism. It is consumerism that is key. We don't buy a £5,000 panda and donate 5p to ourselves. We spend £5,000 on ourselves and invest 5p in some eco tripe that specifically exists to pay off our guilt not to help any fking pandas. You could massacre a forest of pandas and no one would give a crap beyond writing baseless drivel on Twitter but take away their store cards and you'll spark a bloody revolution.

This is why EVs have to be cheaper than ICE to succeed. Or legislation making ICEs basically illegal.

The Western consumer is the creature that votes for a dog in a human talent competition and then gets angry that the human who trained it and did all the work gets the prize money. These are the creatures that you can get to spend £1000 they never needed to spend so as to save £50 a year on VED.

They don't give a flying fk about the environment or any of the buzzwords they like to say on the street they just want to buy what looks cheapest so they have enough cash leftover to finance instalments on Netflix or whatever.

The moment EVs become genuinely cheaper than ICE then we will see ICE demand disappear overnight amongst the basic transport consumer and you'll see the Grid radically adjusting to the new benefits and inconveniences. Until then we're going to be stuck in this world of tax payers subsidising a minority and corporates paying lip service to eco twaddle.
Absolutely spot on. Unfortunately the vast majority of western consumers will go on happily, and willingly, taking the blue pill.
Reading that took my view of eco friendly things in to a new light - what DA said was the truth.

kambites

67,688 posts

223 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
It's true of almost all step changes in consumer technology. Really early cars were rubbish and had no supporting infrastructure... they would almost certainly never have been developed to the point they were better than horses if there hadn't been early-adopters willing to spend daft amounts of money on inferior products.

I do think we're starting to get past that stage though, at least in some markets for some people. As soon as a suitable EV appears on the market (for long enough to be available at a reasonable price second-hand), we will switch even if it's slightly more expensive simply for the added convenience of the electric power-train for our usage. I had hoped that the Model-3 would be that car, but if it's a saloon it is not. I dearly hope I never have to buy another family car with an internal combustion engine, but we'll see.

DonkeyApple

55,930 posts

171 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
babatunde said:
Yet we have people criticizing Tesla and the route they are taking.

One of the reasons I think Tesla will succeed is that they seem to have looked at the current limiting factors of EVs, range and battery supply and addressed these in parallel (Superchargers/Gigafactory) while moving towards mass production.
Except if you're building a factory you'd expect to secure contracts on the raw materials for it. Which they haven't. They can only buy in the open market and hope no one locks them out or spikes the price on them.

China controls the supply, is building bigger factories and they are State backed.

Battery supply is going to be a very interesting battle ground over the coming years as various manufacturers strike deals with various suppliers and macro geopolitics comes into play as some manufacturers find it harder to secure supply as their country is incorrectly positioned.

This old FT article is very good: https://www.ft.com/content/4a924a64-99df-11e5-987b...

And two years on the firm still has no viable supply contracts in place.

kambites

67,688 posts

223 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
China controls the supply, is building bigger factories and they are State backed.
China controls a chunk of the current major extraction sites, but the difference between Lithium and something like Petrol is that it's availble just about everywhere. If China manages to push up whole-sale prices by more than about 10%, it'll become commercially viable to produce the stuff in the US. The only question in my mind is whether the US can produce electricity cheaply enough to compete when it comes to refining the stuff at home.

China may well end up winning the war of economies of scale, which will be great if it happens. More competition is always a good thing for the consumer in any market. As long as I can buy a good EV I couldn't care less whether it's from Tesla or China. smile

Edited by kambites on Sunday 30th July 16:08

cidered77

1,632 posts

199 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
It's been on sale for just over year now and EV sales seem pretty non-existent. According to the UK CEO it's all been hybrids working the tax angles.

Without the on trend hype that Tesla has to create demand the current range of EVs from mainstream manufacturers does tend to show there is little true demand in the market.

Hybrids only really sell because the electric motor games the taxation system not because people really demand them.

This is the real issue with EVs. Despite all their obvious benefits and the fact that many people are very happy with the idea of owning one people aren't stumping up the premium to own one over an ICE without that premium delivering some kind of brand award such as Tesla.

Remove the tax incentives and legislation on hybrids and that market would collapse.

The fundamental problem with the market is that people don't want to pay more to validate their beliefs but they will defile and trample over any belief that they have to save 5p.

The eco angle is all tripe. No one cares. It's why so many eco warriors have multiple children and/or own dogs etc, it's all a facade, a veneer of verbiage and bks that lies thinly and clearly transparently over consumerism. It is consumerism that is key. We don't buy a £5,000 panda and donate 5p to ourselves. We spend £5,000 on ourselves and invest 5p in some eco tripe that specifically exists to pay off our guilt not to help any fking pandas. You could massacre a forest of pandas and no one would give a crap beyond writing baseless drivel on Twitter but take away their store cards and you'll spark a bloody revolution.

This is why EVs have to be cheaper than ICE to succeed. Or legislation making ICEs basically illegal.

The Western consumer is the creature that votes for a dog in a human talent competition and then gets angry that the human who trained it and did all the work gets the prize money. These are the creatures that you can get to spend £1000 they never needed to spend so as to save £50 a year on VED.

They don't give a flying fk about the environment or any of the buzzwords they like to say on the street they just want to buy what looks cheapest so they have enough cash leftover to finance instalments on Netflix or whatever.

The moment EVs become genuinely cheaper than ICE then we will see ICE demand disappear overnight amongst the basic transport consumer and you'll see the Grid radically adjusting to the new benefits and inconveniences. Until then we're going to be stuck in this world of tax payers subsidising a minority and corporates paying lip service to eco twaddle.
Demand for other EVs low because they don't have the brand cache of Tesla - but also... they just don't seem as good. A site called "pistonheads" with you'd guess a fair number of middle aged blokes as contributors is bound to have a pretty skewed bias against Tesla... but this Model 3.. it looks a genuinely competitive option next to a 3 series or C class *even* without the £5k subsidy.

Their interiors have the US thing of never looking as well made or finished - but non denying they offer something different and interesting. I think i've only driven more than 310 miles in a day a couple of times in my life - so an affordable cheap to run EV with a useable range and 0-60 in 5.1, it's starting to look a proper option for the non-ECO warriors (i.e. like me!), and it's only just starting...

Market values Tesla at 25% more than Ford despite making a tiny fraction of their numbers and losing money. Why is that? Obvious answers of hype and bankers knowing nothing aside - real answer is that they are betting Tesla will create a lead so big the others just cannot catch up.

And it's entirely possible. The average life of a Fortune 500 company is drastically shortening - new players with new technologies sadly mostly US west coast based are wiping out traditional players. Uber takes out worlds minicabs, Air BNB takes a slice out of hotels, Amazon changes how world shops, Facebook decided elections... all happening very quickly.

Market are betting Tesla will do to the auto industry as Apple did to Nokia. Before the iPhone, Nokia sold nearly half a billion phones, way more than anyone else doubled, and looked invincible. Now they just cannot catch up despite their resources and eventually gave up. Telsa will have their own battery plant, already have the talent, and they are west coast based so have all the software engineering talent base that will increasingly define success.

So long way of saying the demand isn't there outside of Tesla because the products just aren't as good..

babatunde

736 posts

192 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
babatunde said:
Yet we have people criticizing Tesla and the route they are taking.

One of the reasons I think Tesla will succeed is that they seem to have looked at the current limiting factors of EVs, range and battery supply and addressed these in parallel (Superchargers/Gigafactory) while moving towards mass production.
Except if you're building a factory you'd expect to secure contracts on the raw materials for it. Which they haven't. They can only buy in the open market and hope no one locks them out or spikes the price on them.

China controls the supply, is building bigger factories and they are State backed.

Battery supply is going to be a very interesting battle ground over the coming years as various manufacturers strike deals with various suppliers and macro geopolitics comes into play as some manufacturers find it harder to secure supply as their country is incorrectly positioned.

This old FT article is very good: https://www.ft.com/content/4a924a64-99df-11e5-987b...

And two years on the firm still has no viable supply contracts in place.
If you really believe that Tesla & Panasonic committed Billions of Dollars to building Gigafactory without securing their supply chain of raw materials at a foreseeable price, I have a Bridge in London to sell you.

Seriously an entry level supply clerk wouldn't make that mistake I (and more importantly the market) don't believe Tesla & Panasonic would be that naive.

saaby93

32,038 posts

180 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
Blaster72 said:
Flooble said:
I had a look at those Hyundai Ioniqs. You can't actually buy the electric one.

Only a handful of dealers who are "authorised" to sell it (my local isn't) and when you do track down one of these specialists - they are quoted a year or more for delivery. Apparently they can't get the batteries ... seriously. Did a bit of digging and found that people who ordered in March are being advised by Hyundai UK that they may get their car sometime in 2018.

Seems like either Hyundai messed up their production, or they never actually intended to sell the electric version in the first place.
Yup, it's been in the motoring press. Much higher demand than expected for the all electic car. Battery supplier can't keep up.

http://www.hybridcars.com/hyundai-ioniq-ev-sufferi...

Shame the battery they have is so small, only 28kWh which in winter is going to struggle to give you 130 miles of range.
is the Kia Soul in the same boat - it's supposed to have the longest range of that segment

cidered77

1,632 posts

199 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
babatunde said:
If you really believe that Tesla & Panasonic committed Billions of Dollars to building Gigafactory without securing their supply chain of raw materials at a foreseeable price, I have a Bridge in London to sell you.

Seriously an entry level supply clerk wouldn't make that mistake I (and more importantly the market) don't believe Tesla & Panasonic would be that naive.
Completely agree. None of this is bought out of cash, it's all loaned/investor money. Nobody gives that kind of cash without confidence in the long term return.

Also - aligned to my point above, Telsa also have a massive headstart in supply chain logistics too. Have the best contacts, best network, and a workforce who started with an objective to source best materials for battery production from day 1 - not retraining people who have spent their careers working out how to get lower cost ECUs, tyres, steel, etc.

DonkeyApple

55,930 posts

171 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
It's common knowledge that they have no supply contracts with the existing companies though. What they have is tied up deals with firms hoping to supply via tech advances that open up new extraction sites.

The other matter which isn't known is that having to partner with Panasonic which firm ultimately holds the product supply priority? wink

Or what penalties Panasonic has placed in their deal should Tesla not deliver?

Nothing is simple but what we do know is that Tesla is completely on its own whereas the Chinese battery producers have full State backing and guaranteed access to raw materials.

When you look to which direction the European manufacturers are looking for their supply deals it does give you a clear picture as to where the stable and secured market is.

cidered77

1,632 posts

199 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
.. and yet Tesla with 2017 production figures probably around 250k mark has a higher market cap that BWW, who make ~2.5m. And Ford for that matter who make many more.

Could all be hype driven and about to come crashing down, or - a lot of people who make their money on this stuff are gambling they already have a supply chain and product with a gap too big to close.

Blaster72

10,927 posts

199 months

Sunday 30th July 2017
quotequote all
There's a superb article from last year breaking down the raw materials and costs/location and expected growth in demand.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/materials-needed-to-...


Tuna

19,930 posts

286 months

Monday 31st July 2017
quotequote all
cidered77 said:
.. and yet Tesla with 2017 production figures probably around 250k mark has a higher market cap that BWW, who make ~2.5m. And Ford for that matter who make many more.

Could all be hype driven and about to come crashing down, or - a lot of people who make their money on this stuff are gambling they already have a supply chain and product with a gap too big to close.
I wish people would stop using stock price to 'prove' that Tesla (or any other tech company) must be doing something right - you do realise that that's what 90% of the other stock investors are doing? There is a long term bet that Tesla will be 'so far ahead' of the competition, but there is not one technical demonstration that they have anything unique that other companies don't also have. If you doubt that, look again at the Chevy electric cars, BMW's efforts (including the upcoming Mini), the work Porsche are putting into electric drive and so on. It's just not a space that can be protected so long as we're talking about the current battery technology - which ironically is the one thing Tesla have bet big on.

The problem here is that very, very few investors have an ounce of engineering knowledge, and nor do many of the journalists that cover this (particularly in the silicon valley tech investor space). Investors at the moment are desperate to find the 'next Apple' (or Google, or Microsoft or Amazon... ) and picking anyone who looks even vaguely right. It's not a recipe for success.

Edited by Tuna on Monday 31st July 00:16

Tuna

19,930 posts

286 months

Monday 31st July 2017
quotequote all
cidered77 said:
Market are betting Tesla will do to the auto industry as Apple did to Nokia. Before the iPhone, Nokia sold nearly half a billion phones, way more than anyone else doubled, and looked invincible. Now they just cannot catch up despite their resources and eventually gave up. Telsa will have their own battery plant, already have the talent, and they are west coast based so have all the software engineering talent base that will increasingly define success.
Apple brought serious industrial design chops to the market, that had been developed over a decade or two. They also turned the traditional relationship between the customer and the phone network on its head, and then did it again with music. It was the business deals that ultimately signalled the end of Nokia and the rise of Apple.

Tesla have not brought anything new to the car industry in terms of design, or car ownership really. They're competing against companies that invest more in a single wing mirror design than they did in the entire interior of the Model 3, and who have departments of thousands just working on finance. I'm not saying they can't pull something out of the bag, but people have been trying to 'redefine the car' pretty much every single year since Karl Benz built his first vehicle.

At this stage, it really looks like an illusion to believe Tesla are going to 'do an Apple' - because so far, they haven't. Consider that their 'big goal' in the Model 3 is to produce a completely unsurprising, unthreatening 'normal' car that the masses can buy.

That's not to say they can't be a perfectly good car manufacturer, along with all the other brands. It's an incredible achievement to get there, but they've not done anything to make any of the other manufacturers obsolete.

Colonial

13,553 posts

207 months

Monday 31st July 2017
quotequote all
Tuna said:
Apple brought serious industrial design chops to the market, that had been developed over a decade or two. They also turned the traditional relationship between the customer and the phone network on its head, and then did it again with music. It was the business deals that ultimately signalled the end of Nokia and the rise of Apple.

Tesla have not brought anything new to the car industry in terms of design, or car ownership really. They're competing against companies that invest more in a single wing mirror design than they did in the entire interior of the Model 3, and who have departments of thousands just working on finance. I'm not saying they can't pull something out of the bag, but people have been trying to 'redefine the car' pretty much every single year since Karl Benz built his first vehicle.

At this stage, it really looks like an illusion to believe Tesla are going to 'do an Apple' - because so far, they haven't. Consider that their 'big goal' in the Model 3 is to produce a completely unsurprising, unthreatening 'normal' car that the masses can buy.

That's not to say they can't be a perfectly good car manufacturer, along with all the other brands. It's an incredible achievement to get there, but they've not done anything to make any of the other manufacturers obsolete.
The bit in bold is exactly what Ford did.

Lowtimer

4,293 posts

170 months

Monday 31st July 2017
quotequote all
Yeah, but when Ford did it there weren't any others: it created a completely new market. Just as Apple came up with a consumer propositin where a mobile phone was no longer principally about phone calls but about mobile internet.

With the model 3 Tesla is launching into a market where everyone else is already expert at inoffensive practical family transport. The only difference to the consmer proposition isn't the 'what', it's the 'how' -- losing the IC engine for a pure battery setup, and while everyone else is also making the same transition. They're not creating a market like Apple: they're trying to make a substituton in an existing mature market.