Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?
Discussion
Longboarder1967 said:
Thankyou forn your reply ToasterPilot and I admire your certainty that I am talking codswallop. Maybe you're right or maybe not. Let's see what happens by 2030. My prediction (and I'll admit I'm less certain than you seem to be) is that in a democratic country a forced personal vehicle downgrade in order to support a sudden EV shift won't ultimately fly. But hey maybe I'm wrong and if it makes you feel better do feel free to throw another pseudo expletive my way.
On the one side we have an old man shouting that people going from a base Toyota Aygo will now be driving 500hp 2.5T machines with 235 section tyres, ruining the roads.And then in the other corner, people will have to ditch their large family car and buy a two seater electric scooter
.One unintended consequence has just appeared on the horizon. From an Autocar article, the Mini Electric is presently made in China. The next gen Countryman, including the battery version, will be made in Germany. The UK plant will continue to make petrol Minis.....for how much longer?
Mikehig said:
One unintended consequence has just appeared on the horizon. From an Autocar article, the Mini Electric is presently made in China. The next gen Countryman, including the battery version, will be made in Germany. The UK plant will continue to make petrol Minis.....for how much longer?
The Mini Electric is already being produced in Cowley too. The BMW Germany announcement relates to bringing European assembly in-house from the current VDL Nedcar line in the Netherlands.Electric investment will happen somewhere. The key risk is post-Brexit arrangements.
The 2030 ban is indeed premature with regard to industrial strategy or the lack of it. UK car manufacture is based on ICE cars as far as I'm aware for the most part and this populist move to be the first to ban ICE cars exposes a major UK manufacturing industry to a potentially significant disadvantage if the rest of the world doesn't follow suit. In my humble opinion (and I realise that many on this thread think I'm wrong) the 2030 ban will not happen because it's a government edict misaligned with medium term interests at an economic, industrial and individual motorist level. Like so many things that are happening with our government at the moment it simply isn't fully thought through. Successful initiatives in our society are usually a gentle balance of market forces and government policy whereas this 2030 edict is a sledgehammer approach that will (in my humble opinion) flounder against the many challenges that will arise. Is this new ICE car ban plan achievable? Yes, but not by 2030. Wait and see.
Toaster Pilot said:
There is absolutely nothing suggested by the ban of the sale of NEW petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and hybrids from 2035 that suggests you’d need to swap a S-Max for a Twizy under any circumstances. You’re being hysterical for effect just like all of the “OMG THE GRID WILL NEVER COPE” “YOU’RE PRICING THE POOR OFF THE ROADS” “EVERYONE IN THE U.K. LIVES SOMEWHERE WITHOUT OFF STREET PARKING” retards.
I'm with Toaster Pilot. Future will be here sooner than you think and it will be fine. #BatteryHeads #RangeMattersdgswk said:
I'm with Toaster Pilot. Future will be here sooner than you think and it will be fine. #BatteryHeads #RangeMatters
I had a bit of a rant about this on YouTube yesterday after learning that Jim Davidson was telling his knuckle dragging racist followers that you’ll need to scrap your 2029 car in 2030ninja-lewis said:
Mikehig said:
One unintended consequence has just appeared on the horizon. From an Autocar article, the Mini Electric is presently made in China. The next gen Countryman, including the battery version, will be made in Germany. The UK plant will continue to make petrol Minis.....for how much longer?
The Mini Electric is already being produced in Cowley too. The BMW Germany announcement relates to bringing European assembly in-house from the current VDL Nedcar line in the Netherlands.Electric investment will happen somewhere. The key risk is post-Brexit arrangements.
Longboarder1967 said:
The 2030 ban is indeed premature with regard to industrial strategy or the lack of it. UK car manufacture is based on ICE cars as far as I'm aware for the most part and this populist move to be the first to ban ICE cars exposes a major UK manufacturing industry to a potentially significant disadvantage if the rest of the world doesn't follow suit. In my humble opinion (and I realise that many on this thread think I'm wrong) the 2030 ban will not happen because it's a government edict misaligned with medium term interests at an economic, industrial and individual motorist level. Like so many things that are happening with our government at the moment it simply isn't fully thought through. Successful initiatives in our society are usually a gentle balance of market forces and government policy whereas this 2030 edict is a sledgehammer approach that will (in my humble opinion) flounder against the many challenges that will arise. Is this new ICE car ban plan achievable? Yes, but not by 2030. Wait and see.
But they just discovered high grade Lithium in Cornwall! 
GT119 said:
Longboarder1967 said:
The 2030 ban is indeed premature with regard to industrial strategy or the lack of it. UK car manufacture is based on ICE cars as far as I'm aware for the most part and this populist move to be the first to ban ICE cars exposes a major UK manufacturing industry to a potentially significant disadvantage if the rest of the world doesn't follow suit. In my humble opinion (and I realise that many on this thread think I'm wrong) the 2030 ban will not happen because it's a government edict misaligned with medium term interests at an economic, industrial and individual motorist level. Like so many things that are happening with our government at the moment it simply isn't fully thought through. Successful initiatives in our society are usually a gentle balance of market forces and government policy whereas this 2030 edict is a sledgehammer approach that will (in my humble opinion) flounder against the many challenges that will arise. Is this new ICE car ban plan achievable? Yes, but not by 2030. Wait and see.
But they just discovered high grade Lithium in Cornwall! This is an interesting thread and I'm learning some stuff thanks (I didn't know that 'Cornish Lithium remains in the vanguard of Britain’s nascent battery metals industry' - thank you). Having said I'd encourage those of you who are stating so confidently that 2030 is fully achievable to try and hold onto that thought until 2030. You may be very surprised at the outcome. Although I have doubts about the 2030 deadline and it's achievability I'm a relatively early adopter of this sort of thing as it happens - most of our family miles this week (school, groceries etc all fully within lockdown rules) have been fully electrically powered and I must admit it works very well as a means of propulsion from A to B. We have an Andersen EV charger fitted to our house (Andersen is a good British startup). This is a very nuanced topic and can't easily be captured in soundbites - whether on a discussion forum or a badly thought through populist government edict.
Edited by Longboarder1967 on Friday 20th November 20:20
Good news about Cornish lithium. There was also good news about battery R&D and eventually production in Coventry, once the home of the motor industry but now unfortunately not one of the more prosperous parts of Britain. This was announced last year, but the media are only interested in spats between politicians so you probably haven't heard about it 
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/coventry-uk-battery-...
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/coventry-uk-battery-...
Justin Case said:
Good news about Cornish lithium. There was also good news about battery R&D and eventually production in Coventry, once the home of the motor industry but now unfortunately not one of the more prosperous parts of Britain. This was announced last year, but the media are only interested in spats between politicians so you probably haven't heard about it
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/coventry-uk-battery-...
Another area of the UK that could really benefit from investment in this technology. Alongside the NE Coast which is being earmarked as a potential hydrogen tech centre building on the old North Sea infrastructure. And of course Cumbria, Suffolk, Anglesey and Somerset for new nuclear.https://www.theengineer.co.uk/coventry-uk-battery-...
ninja-lewis said:
Mikehig said:
One unintended consequence has just appeared on the horizon. From an Autocar article, the Mini Electric is presently made in China. The next gen Countryman, including the battery version, will be made in Germany. The UK plant will continue to make petrol Minis.....for how much longer?
The Mini Electric is already being produced in Cowley too. The BMW Germany announcement relates to bringing European assembly in-house from the current VDL Nedcar line in the Netherlands.Electric investment will happen somewhere. The key risk is post-Brexit arrangements.
BYD (largest Chinese battery maker) moved into making EV, and explained that they didn't bother with ICE or hybrid as they just didn't have the engineering of manufacturing knowledge to make a competitive ICE engine.
One area of concern for our auto industry is that we are lagging well behind in the establishment of battery manufacturing. Here are some excerpts from a report by the Faraday Group:
"Whilst Asia remains the stronghold (China alone is projected to hit 800GWh of annual manufacturing capacity by 2025) Europe is expanding rapidly. Based on current plans – which include the construction of facilities in Germany, Sweden, Poland and Hungary – continental Europe will have 450GWh / year of production by the end of the decade.
To the growing of concern of many in the UK, there are currently no firm plans for this country to follow suit: something of a surprise given its growing EV manufacturing base and historic expertise in the field (the lithium battery was invented in Oxford and the battery plant alongside Nissan’s Sunderland car factory was once the first of its kind in the Europe). To give a sense of how rapidly things have moved on, whilst that same plant remains the UK’s largest facility, its annual 2GWh capacity is dwarfed by the scale of the planned pipeline elsewhere in Europe.
To avert this scenario, and tap into the huge opportunity presented by the UK’s growing EV market, the group claims that the UK will need to build at least seven 20GWh gigafactories by 2040. The question is: can it be done, and is there the political and industrial will to make it happen?"
Bringing the deadline forward by 10 years won't make it any easier!
The first such facility for the UK has been announced by Britishvolt, it is to be built in S. Wales with production possibly starting in 2023.....
"Whilst Asia remains the stronghold (China alone is projected to hit 800GWh of annual manufacturing capacity by 2025) Europe is expanding rapidly. Based on current plans – which include the construction of facilities in Germany, Sweden, Poland and Hungary – continental Europe will have 450GWh / year of production by the end of the decade.
To the growing of concern of many in the UK, there are currently no firm plans for this country to follow suit: something of a surprise given its growing EV manufacturing base and historic expertise in the field (the lithium battery was invented in Oxford and the battery plant alongside Nissan’s Sunderland car factory was once the first of its kind in the Europe). To give a sense of how rapidly things have moved on, whilst that same plant remains the UK’s largest facility, its annual 2GWh capacity is dwarfed by the scale of the planned pipeline elsewhere in Europe.
To avert this scenario, and tap into the huge opportunity presented by the UK’s growing EV market, the group claims that the UK will need to build at least seven 20GWh gigafactories by 2040. The question is: can it be done, and is there the political and industrial will to make it happen?"
Bringing the deadline forward by 10 years won't make it any easier!
The first such facility for the UK has been announced by Britishvolt, it is to be built in S. Wales with production possibly starting in 2023.....
wisbech said:
Plus electric motors are an order of magnitude simpler to design and manufacture than ICE - sure hybrids are complex but pure EV are not. The R&D effort on the engine/ transmission side will not be massive.
BYD (largest Chinese battery maker) moved into making EV, and explained that they didn't bother with ICE or hybrid as they just didn't have the engineering of manufacturing knowledge to make a competitive ICE engine.
I reckon SAIC are gearing up to kill off pure-ICE MGs, given they’ve just launched a plug in hybrid HS to join the MG5 and ZS EV in their electric line up. Good move too I reckon. BYD (largest Chinese battery maker) moved into making EV, and explained that they didn't bother with ICE or hybrid as they just didn't have the engineering of manufacturing knowledge to make a competitive ICE engine.
10 yrs is a long time.
in 2000 there were 3G licence tenders, lots of promise, a dotcom crash and the great glorious future failed to materialise. Phones were b&w with SMS!
However, in reality, things progressed and by 2010 we had fully operational 3G smartphones and we were all doing stuff online we never dreamed would ever happen.
I see similarities. A lot of the EV bits are in place ahead of mainstream acceptance. Like with the internet it's more about infrastructure build up and getting all the necessary components up to speed. we're past the tipping point but a long way from mainstream. 2030 will happen because industry and market will there by then, not because of any sales ban.
in 2000 there were 3G licence tenders, lots of promise, a dotcom crash and the great glorious future failed to materialise. Phones were b&w with SMS!
However, in reality, things progressed and by 2010 we had fully operational 3G smartphones and we were all doing stuff online we never dreamed would ever happen.
I see similarities. A lot of the EV bits are in place ahead of mainstream acceptance. Like with the internet it's more about infrastructure build up and getting all the necessary components up to speed. we're past the tipping point but a long way from mainstream. 2030 will happen because industry and market will there by then, not because of any sales ban.
Toaster Pilot said:
I reckon SAIC are gearing up to kill off pure-ICE MGs, given they’ve just launched a plug in hybrid HS to join the MG5 and ZS EV in their electric line up. Good move too I reckon.
Makes a lot of sense. They have the combination of an existing brand and massive economies of scale for the drive-train components so they stand pretty much uniquely positioned to take a stranglehold on the budget EV market is Europe (especially the UK) if they get things right. Edited by kambites on Sunday 22 November 09:06
kambites said:
Toaster Pilot said:
I reckon SAIC are gearing up to kill off pure-ICE MGs, given they’ve just launched a plug in hybrid HS to join the MG5 and ZS EV in their electric line up. Good move too I reckon.
Makes a lot of sense. They have the combination of an existing brand and massive economies of scale for the drive-train components so they stand pretty much uniquely positioned to take a stranglehold on the budget EV market is Europe (especially the UK) if they get things right. Edited by kambites on Sunday 22 November 09:06
Gassing Station | EV and Alternative Fuels | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff