Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
I really like my wife's Model X 100D. I'd take it over the Rangie for most journeys. You are definitely missing out.
I think there are enough tech companies and investors to get Tesla to the finish line. Elon might not get there on his own and with his stake in tact, but I believe that, in the current climate, the company will survive. There are lots of people with cash that want into the car business (allegedly). Google and Apple to name but two. There are also tech investors with deep pockets such as Softbank.
But there is a risk none of them turn up to help.
I think there are enough tech companies and investors to get Tesla to the finish line. Elon might not get there on his own and with his stake in tact, but I believe that, in the current climate, the company will survive. There are lots of people with cash that want into the car business (allegedly). Google and Apple to name but two. There are also tech investors with deep pockets such as Softbank.
But there is a risk none of them turn up to help.
fesuvious said:
Might I share an opinion,
I could by a Tesla. I love the ethos, the humour, the ability. I love the over the air updates. I think they look great. I think the asking price is fair.
For two years I have been looking at the EV market with casual interest (which with me normally ends with spend the wife gets angsty about!).
My take on Tesla though is that if I buy a brand new product I want to know the firm will absolutely be around to back it up for the next five years.
The way I see it Tesla need widespread loyalty, network, support and a great large fanbase before BMW, JLR, Mercedes, Ford, and others get EV's nailed, reliable, marketable and 'trusted' by the public.
It looks to me like Tesla won't do it.
They are no longer really 'niche' . And I suspect shortly they won't be able to have the cockyness of having absolutely the best product in the class.
If any firm was hugely loss making, and possibly about to face an onslaught of competition, would you invest?
For me, this is why whilst I fancy a Tesla, and also for that matter an i8 I just will not buy in just yet to the product.
There's too much disruption on the cards, and with the main manufacturers catching up, who knows which firms will do well, and which will not.
Problem is alot of the automated driving systems are driven by data, which tesla have already been doing for a few years so they are already a few years ahead and in theory will always be.I could by a Tesla. I love the ethos, the humour, the ability. I love the over the air updates. I think they look great. I think the asking price is fair.
For two years I have been looking at the EV market with casual interest (which with me normally ends with spend the wife gets angsty about!).
My take on Tesla though is that if I buy a brand new product I want to know the firm will absolutely be around to back it up for the next five years.
The way I see it Tesla need widespread loyalty, network, support and a great large fanbase before BMW, JLR, Mercedes, Ford, and others get EV's nailed, reliable, marketable and 'trusted' by the public.
It looks to me like Tesla won't do it.
They are no longer really 'niche' . And I suspect shortly they won't be able to have the cockyness of having absolutely the best product in the class.
If any firm was hugely loss making, and possibly about to face an onslaught of competition, would you invest?
For me, this is why whilst I fancy a Tesla, and also for that matter an i8 I just will not buy in just yet to the product.
There's too much disruption on the cards, and with the main manufacturers catching up, who knows which firms will do well, and which will not.
fesuvious said:
It will be a good few years yet before the wider public accept self driving cars.
The next 0-5 years will be about shifting from Petrol to leccy.
Once EV's can actually go from B'ham to Bournemouth with the air-con on, and then sit outside a hotel for 3 days without being charged, before doing the journey back then the public will change over.
Only after that will the wider public start to consider self driving.
Tesla and it's abilities are niche right now.
As long as those cars are affordable for the wider public. Right now Teslas aren’t. The next 0-5 years will be about shifting from Petrol to leccy.
Once EV's can actually go from B'ham to Bournemouth with the air-con on, and then sit outside a hotel for 3 days without being charged, before doing the journey back then the public will change over.
Only after that will the wider public start to consider self driving.
Tesla and it's abilities are niche right now.
fesuvious said:
It will be a good few years yet before the wider public accept self driving cars.
The next 0-5 years will be about shifting from Petrol to leccy.
Once EV's can actually go from B'ham to Bournemouth with the air-con on, and then sit outside a hotel for 3 days without being charged, before doing the journey back then the public will change over.
Only after that will the wider public start to consider self driving.
Tesla and it's abilities are niche right now.
Well there is a supercharger off the A34 so you could stop there for a top up in both directions. So you can go Birmingham to Bournemouth now. The next 0-5 years will be about shifting from Petrol to leccy.
Once EV's can actually go from B'ham to Bournemouth with the air-con on, and then sit outside a hotel for 3 days without being charged, before doing the journey back then the public will change over.
Only after that will the wider public start to consider self driving.
Tesla and it's abilities are niche right now.
DapperDanMan said:
Well there is a supercharger off the A34 so you could stop there for a top up in both directions. So you can go Birmingham to Bournemouth now.
Yeah you can do that easily, non stopThey have a handy route checker
https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/trips#/?v=MS_2017_75D&...
king thread im out.fesuvious said:
1) i don't want to stop to charge it. I've enjoyed the convenience of filling the tank in 5mins and effing off on a break with no need to refill the tank until after I'm back. Why take a backwards step and make the round trip longer?
2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
Clearly you aren't the right sort of person to have an EV. 2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
The reality is that most people stop and get a coffee, have a pee, maybe grab a sandwich. That will give you around 80 miles of range on a supercharger for zero additional inconvenience.
Also, the car can charge off a three pin plug. Assuming the B&B has an outside plug (and let's you charge), you can leave it there filling up while you do other things. Admittedly, it would only gain 80 miles or so - but enough to make a difference.
So, your criteria are sort of already met. If you think slightly differently. You do this stuff with your phone without noticing it.
Also, there is something rather nice about always getting in the car in the morning with a "full tank". And pre-warming the car from the app. And knowing that you're filling the car for free at a supercharger.
fesuvious said:
....For this reason, sensible money backs hybrid as opposed sole leccy for easily the foreseeable future.
I don't think anyone is predicting 100% BEV, There will be a mix of BEV and a variety of Hybrid flavors in the future. A recent survey concluded about 70% would happily buy BEV, and 30% would never buy BEV. I suspect that will translate to about 50% BEV at best. A lot of people that would buy one still wouldn't, because they want the range even if they don't need it often.fesuvious said:
Truth is that until regenerative tech enables EV's to charge themselves while they drive the market is incredibly limited.
Can you explain what you mean by that? Surely you don't mean recovering energy while driving (i.e. other than braking)?fesuvious said:
Still nowhere near as flexible as the current crop of combustion engined cars.
This is the reason EV sales aren't too hot.
And it's the reason why Tesla despite their brilliance may run out of time before everyone else catches up.
Against all of them however is the convenience argument.
Well, of course not. A full EV cannot do what an ICE car can do and is unlikely to be able to do that in the near future. However, in the real world they are not far off.This is the reason EV sales aren't too hot.
And it's the reason why Tesla despite their brilliance may run out of time before everyone else catches up.
Against all of them however is the convenience argument.
fesuvious said:
To do a 3hour journey and back, in a normal day, in any sort of traffic and on any combination of roads as easily as you'd do it in a current petrol car is crucial, before EV only takes off.
I have to say I almost never do two 3 hour journeys in any car in a single day, regardless of the ability of the car to achieve it. I much prefer to rest up overnight somewhere (as presumably I have been doing something when there). The only exception I can think of is Goodwood Revival - and the experience is so bad I now avoid it (and I'd want to go in the Aston anyway!). So really not going to change my experience at all.That said, I went to my in-laws the other day for the weekend and took the Rangie. The Tesla could have done it but we'd have had some faff - two charge stops to ensure we had the range when we were there.
fesuvious said:
And how many apartment block dwellers, city centre flat occupiers, and those who can't leave a cable across a footpath are going to be alienated.
There is talk of installing charge points in lamposts. Not there yet though.fesuvious said:
For this reason, sensible money backs hybrid as opposed sole leccy for easily the foreseeable future.
And then, we're up against those that then still won't switch from hybrid for the same concerns or similar.
Hybrid is going to be a bigger market for a loooong time. But not the only market. As more hybrids become plug-in, then the charging infrastructure will increase, which will help the pure EVsAnd then, we're up against those that then still won't switch from hybrid for the same concerns or similar.
fesuvious said:
Truth is that until regenerative tech enables EV's to charge themselves while they drive the market is incredibly limited.
Not sure what you mean by this as it beaks the laws of physics. "Incredibly limited" is an exaggeration. It's a niche - but large and growing.
This video (https://youtu.be/9k7k3Mzknm8) explains how things could get to a tipping point quite quickly.
The sides behind it are here:
https://www.slideshare.net/PodPoint/5-barriers-to-...
It's podpoint talking its own book but still some valid observations.
fesuvious said:
This is the reason I personally haven't bought a Tesla and wouldn't buy the shares. Despite admiring the product.
They are not for everyone. And I personally wouldn't buy the shares - they are at roughly the same dollar market capitalisation as BMW, which means a lot of success has been priced in.Model 3 production now at 2,020 cars per week (versus target of 2,500).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03...
I think everyone is trying to see it like a petrol car which it isn't.
I drive 40 miles to work and back every day. I park my car at work from 9-5 and it does nothing.
This usage profile means that I will have to spend approx 30 seconds a day to always have a full tank of "petrol".
If I had a petrol car with similar performance to a model S I'd be filling up weekly, filling up takes time out of my commute and takes around 15 minutes at a forecourt depending how busy it is and the money it costs to drive there and the time that it takes to drive there.
Not having to step foot on a forecourt ever again seems worthwhile.
I drive 40 miles to work and back every day. I park my car at work from 9-5 and it does nothing.
This usage profile means that I will have to spend approx 30 seconds a day to always have a full tank of "petrol".
If I had a petrol car with similar performance to a model S I'd be filling up weekly, filling up takes time out of my commute and takes around 15 minutes at a forecourt depending how busy it is and the money it costs to drive there and the time that it takes to drive there.
Not having to step foot on a forecourt ever again seems worthwhile.
I am pretty sure the government is gonna bail Tesla out if it comes to that. The company is too valuable to be left alone and it might cause a domino effect on the other companies like SpaceX which the governments need badly.
We will have to wait and see but I hope Elon can find a way to stay afloat. He is genuinely trying to make the world a better place.
We will have to wait and see but I hope Elon can find a way to stay afloat. He is genuinely trying to make the world a better place.
fesuvious said:
1) i don't want to stop to charge it. I've enjoyed the convenience of filling the tank in 5mins and effing off on a break with no need to refill the tank until after I'm back. Why take a backwards step and make the round trip longer?
2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
That's a far cry from your original comments and trots out the usual nonsense. Birmingham to Bournemouth is a doddle with a couple of stops any sensible driver would make en route anyway. And by stop I mean a quick comfort break and stretch of the legs - 15 mins and you're good to go. More and more locations have destination chargers - if you need them, and even car parks have them now.2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
Tesla as an investment is a completely different argument to the argument about practicality and usability.
DJP31 said:
fesuvious said:
1) i don't want to stop to charge it. I've enjoyed the convenience of filling the tank in 5mins and effing off on a break with no need to refill the tank until after I'm back. Why take a backwards step and make the round trip longer?
2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
That's a far cry from your original comments and trots out the usual nonsense. Birmingham to Bournemouth is a doddle with a couple of stops any sensible driver would make en route anyway. And by stop I mean a quick comfort break and stretch of the legs - 15 mins and you're good to go. More and more locations have destination chargers - if you need them, and even car parks have them now.2) what if I book a small B&B, park where I can find a spot, and then intend to just enjoy a 3 day break prior to coming home? I won't be able to charge it.
So, compared to even my Hellcat the EV is a fuel'ing pain in the back side for a trip like this.
Tesla as an investment is a completely different argument to the argument about practicality and usability.
80% of your tank filled for no cost but you have to wait for 40 mins or pay full price and be on your way in five. I bet the queue will be going down the road with people sat in their cars playing on their phones.
fesuvious said:
To the chap above suggested a 3 hour drive needs a couple of stops;
I'm in a series of endurance races this year, they're 2 and 3 hours long. I'm the only driver.
Should I be planning comfort stops of @15minutes?
How's about HGV drivers?
No, it's nonsense. Plenty of people will happily hop in a car or van and do 2, 3 or 4 hours, safely, and happily.
That EV's can't do it is a flaw with EV's, not the many thousands of drivers currently on the roads.
I do love the idea, but, turning a six hour round trip into a 7-8 hour round trip is a backwards step.
Using an EV for the 20-30minute ride each way to work in traffic is a darn good idea.
I must confess I didn’t think Birmingham - Bournemouth was as quick and easy as Google suggests. One stop assuming nothing at the destination, otherwise no need to stop at all. I'm in a series of endurance races this year, they're 2 and 3 hours long. I'm the only driver.
Should I be planning comfort stops of @15minutes?
How's about HGV drivers?
No, it's nonsense. Plenty of people will happily hop in a car or van and do 2, 3 or 4 hours, safely, and happily.
That EV's can't do it is a flaw with EV's, not the many thousands of drivers currently on the roads.
I do love the idea, but, turning a six hour round trip into a 7-8 hour round trip is a backwards step.
Using an EV for the 20-30minute ride each way to work in traffic is a darn good idea.
There are plenty of ultra high mileage Tesla drivers out there. It’s doable, but I’ll grant you not if your day is flying from one appointment to another with no idea where you might be off to next.
What must happen before EV take up can really get going is a public charging network that is easy to use and reliable. That’s certainly not the case at the moment.
Tesla Q1 2018 results
"Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines."
https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/tesla-record-produc...
"Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines."
https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/tesla-record-produc...
To add a bit of balance.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/tesla-is-facing-an...
'By the end of December, Tesla held $7.2 billion in total recourse debt on its balance sheet. That was up around 42 percent from December 2016. It ended 2017 with $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.'
The main concern, Schlossberg says, is its rising pile of debt.
"Tesla is really sort of in an existential moment at this point because they're facing a massive, massive amount of debt due over the next 18 months and a big capital expenditure spend," Schlossberg said.
By the end of December, Tesla held $7.2 billion in total recourse debt on its balance sheet. That was up around 42 percent from December 2016. It ended 2017 with $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
Last week, Moody's analysts downgraded their credit rating on Tesla to B3 from B2. The firm said the company would need to raise more money and soon to cover its cash flow and expansion plans.'
''...saying the Silicon Valley car maker "will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity shortfall." The ratings reflect "the significant shortfall" in the Model 3 production rate as well as the company's "liquidity pressures due to its large negative free cash flow and the pending maturities of convertible bonds ($230 million in November 2018 and $920 million in March 2019),''
Comes down to who you believe, yes a lot of short sellers in the market betting on failure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/tesla-is-facing-an...
'By the end of December, Tesla held $7.2 billion in total recourse debt on its balance sheet. That was up around 42 percent from December 2016. It ended 2017 with $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.'
The main concern, Schlossberg says, is its rising pile of debt.
"Tesla is really sort of in an existential moment at this point because they're facing a massive, massive amount of debt due over the next 18 months and a big capital expenditure spend," Schlossberg said.
By the end of December, Tesla held $7.2 billion in total recourse debt on its balance sheet. That was up around 42 percent from December 2016. It ended 2017 with $3.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
Last week, Moody's analysts downgraded their credit rating on Tesla to B3 from B2. The firm said the company would need to raise more money and soon to cover its cash flow and expansion plans.'
''...saying the Silicon Valley car maker "will have to undertake a large, near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity shortfall." The ratings reflect "the significant shortfall" in the Model 3 production rate as well as the company's "liquidity pressures due to its large negative free cash flow and the pending maturities of convertible bonds ($230 million in November 2018 and $920 million in March 2019),''
Comes down to who you believe, yes a lot of short sellers in the market betting on failure.
Edited by Thesprucegoose on Tuesday 3rd April 23:16
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