Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
Some Gump said:
I'd be less jumpy about the fire and a lot more nervy about the dodgy suspension that makes wheels collapse / fall off.
That's a known thing and obvious recall territory for any other car company. Bizarre that Tesla just class it as a "non safety.relsted" bulletin. What is safe about catastrophic wheel failure at speed?
Don't be a trollThat's a known thing and obvious recall territory for any other car company. Bizarre that Tesla just class it as a "non safety.relsted" bulletin. What is safe about catastrophic wheel failure at speed?
Elon Musk really is nuts, betting the future of the company on been able to achieve what Google hasn't been able to do using mass produced hardware at fraction of the cost DeepMind runs on.
Even more nuts is the idea Tesla can just drop a new CPU into our car manufactured nearly 2 years ago and enable it to achieve the same results.
The guy is either high on drugs all the time and the best con man the alive, or a utter genius. Hard to tell which at this stage!!
https://youtu.be/2BZHXh1nbWc
https://youtu.be/tlThdr3O5Qo
Even more nuts is the idea Tesla can just drop a new CPU into our car manufactured nearly 2 years ago and enable it to achieve the same results.
The guy is either high on drugs all the time and the best con man the alive, or a utter genius. Hard to tell which at this stage!!
https://youtu.be/2BZHXh1nbWc
https://youtu.be/tlThdr3O5Qo
Can't fault the arguments tbh, demo looks good.
You mention Google, Tesla are doing what Google did with web search, and odly are not doing with their self-drive program..
Waymo have to pay engineers to drive round clocking up limited miles where Teslas paying customers do the training for them.
There's absolutely no reason this can't happen.
You mention Google, Tesla are doing what Google did with web search, and odly are not doing with their self-drive program..
Waymo have to pay engineers to drive round clocking up limited miles where Teslas paying customers do the training for them.
There's absolutely no reason this can't happen.
If that video is even a fraction of what Tesla can achieve with this new CPU that is massive leap in tech.
What's more mad is the concept Tesla has the next next gen self driving CPU in development.
There was ALOT of crazy talk last night at the investor call. If any other company had pulled off the same stunt I suspect the CEO would have been laughed out of the room within minutes.
A car that can last for 1 million miles and rented out for hire when you don't need it??? That's not just a slight depature from what the entire motor industry has been doing for the last 100 years, thats resetting our entire concept of personal transportation!!
How much of if comes true we still have to see, but betting everything you have done/worked on for the last decade on what sounds like SciFi takes big balls and/or some mental instability!!!
What's more mad is the concept Tesla has the next next gen self driving CPU in development.
There was ALOT of crazy talk last night at the investor call. If any other company had pulled off the same stunt I suspect the CEO would have been laughed out of the room within minutes.
A car that can last for 1 million miles and rented out for hire when you don't need it??? That's not just a slight depature from what the entire motor industry has been doing for the last 100 years, thats resetting our entire concept of personal transportation!!
How much of if comes true we still have to see, but betting everything you have done/worked on for the last decade on what sounds like SciFi takes big balls and/or some mental instability!!!
Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 23 April 03:46
They seem pretty confident.
I've mostly been unconvinced on their Fsd up until recently seeing this approach. It makes sense and is much more flexible than waymo approach etc.
If they crack it, which looks close, they have 400k cars right now that could end up with Fsd and every new car has everything needed
I've mostly been unconvinced on their Fsd up until recently seeing this approach. It makes sense and is much more flexible than waymo approach etc.
If they crack it, which looks close, they have 400k cars right now that could end up with Fsd and every new car has everything needed
RobDickinson said:
If they crack it, which looks close, they have 400k cars right now that could end up with Fsd and every new car has everything needed
I hope it comes true, after all I have one of those cars - Full Self Driving ordered. My dad is ready to press the order button on a Model 3 as soon as RHD order books open, and I may now have to advise him to also tick the Full Self Driving option, and order ASAP rather than wait till September when am sure RHD inventory discounts on the Model 3 will appear.But that is my biggest doubt about the whole presentation last night. How much of it was real and how much of it was to create demand and push people like my dad to order now, along with Full Self Driving option. A 2hr presentation and fancy video is a very easy and cheap way to generate demand......
Elon knows how to create demand, and the seeds for this particular potential con were sowed some 6 months ago when he talked about needing to substantially increase Full Self Driving option prices.
Few months ago I wasn't too bothered by the FSD option but yeah I'll be in 2 minds when I configure. Really not sure how long it will take to get it live in nz though, if this goes live in USA 2020..?
Tesla don't even have Noa active in Europe yet right?
edit , interesting :-
https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/technolo...
"There are no obvious legal barriers to the deployment of autonomous vehicles for testing in New Zealand. Unlike some countries, NZ law has no explicit requirement for a driver to be present. However, autonomous vehicles could raise issues about who is at fault if they were to crash."
Tesla don't even have Noa active in Europe yet right?
edit , interesting :-
https://www.transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/technolo...
"There are no obvious legal barriers to the deployment of autonomous vehicles for testing in New Zealand. Unlike some countries, NZ law has no explicit requirement for a driver to be present. However, autonomous vehicles could raise issues about who is at fault if they were to crash."
Edited by RobDickinson on Tuesday 23 April 04:00
All I saw last night was level 2 autonomy. They made a case of predicting whether a car might move into your lane, they need to do that for a zillion scenarios, Will a driver swerve for a pot hole, will somebody standing at a bus stop step into the road, that same person if not at a bus stop, will they?
For FSD they need to stop talking about how they can learn to go around a corner, or predicting the road around the corner and talk about complex junctions, how to pull into a roundabout, how to handle road works and road closures, etc. How the systems will determine predictably when to call for driver assistance with a safely plan if no response.
I’m not saying all this won’t be done in time, but they seemed very much in the world of creating the best level 2 system they can, hoping they can call it level 3 not even level 4, but then talk as if it’s level 5. That’s my issue, the same as it always is, not what they’re doing, some of it is cool, it’s what they say it means and the stretch if the imagination. Market seems to think the same, 260 is a known support price for the shares and they’re only just off it.
To imply buying a different car is like buying a horse 100 years ago, i think buying a Tesla is like buying a 3D TV a few years ago, it’s still a great if not brilliant picture but that 3D feature never really delivered.
For FSD they need to stop talking about how they can learn to go around a corner, or predicting the road around the corner and talk about complex junctions, how to pull into a roundabout, how to handle road works and road closures, etc. How the systems will determine predictably when to call for driver assistance with a safely plan if no response.
I’m not saying all this won’t be done in time, but they seemed very much in the world of creating the best level 2 system they can, hoping they can call it level 3 not even level 4, but then talk as if it’s level 5. That’s my issue, the same as it always is, not what they’re doing, some of it is cool, it’s what they say it means and the stretch if the imagination. Market seems to think the same, 260 is a known support price for the shares and they’re only just off it.
To imply buying a different car is like buying a horse 100 years ago, i think buying a Tesla is like buying a 3D TV a few years ago, it’s still a great if not brilliant picture but that 3D feature never really delivered.
Edited by Heres Johnny on Tuesday 23 April 06:07
Really? People getting 15-20 min drives with zero driver interaction is level 2?
https://youtu.be/c9DN7EKrP3c
https://youtu.be/c9DN7EKrP3c
Edited by RobDickinson on Tuesday 23 April 06:22
RobDickinson said:
Really? People getting 15-20 min drives with zero driver interaction is level 2?
https://youtu.be/c9DN7EKrP3c
Level 2 isn't about the time - its about the capability - I've driven an hour on level 2 - all I needed to do was pay attention and be prepared to step in if the system did the wrong thing. https://youtu.be/c9DN7EKrP3c
Edited by RobDickinson on Tuesday 23 April 06:22
I suggest you read up on what level 3, 4 and 5 really means - did you see anything that suggested the driver could take their eyes off the road and leave the car to it? Did they say "with this, the driver can close their eyes and wait for the car to request their intervention"? Thats level 3.
Heres Johnny said:
Level 2 isn't about the time - its about the capability - I've driven an hour on level 2 - all I needed to do was pay attention and be prepared to step in if the system did the wrong thing.
I suggest you read up on what level 3, 4 and 5 really means - did you see anything that suggested the driver could take their eyes off the road and leave the car to it? Did they say "with this, the driver can close their eyes and wait for the car to request their intervention"? Thats level 3.
Odly enough the link I posted right before you has a description.. And what they demod is at least level 3I suggest you read up on what level 3, 4 and 5 really means - did you see anything that suggested the driver could take their eyes off the road and leave the car to it? Did they say "with this, the driver can close their eyes and wait for the car to request their intervention"? Thats level 3.
RobDickinson said:
Odly enough the link I posted right before you has a description.. And what they demod is at least level 3
They don’t understand then. They’re wrapped up up in some quasi feature set that’s beyond level 2 which is ‘just’ two axis of control, direction and speed. Don’t get me wrong, it’s all needed, and it’s clever, but it’s still a leap to say it’s level 3. We can launch space ships into space but we don’t tell everyone at mission control they’re not needed to turn up. What’s more, Ford have said they’re avoiding level 3 as it’s the most dangerous level of all. The idea that drivers can leave the car to it, but take over at very short notice when the car says it’s stuck. Have you ever been a passenger in a car and needed to take over within a few seconds notice?
Seriously? Just direction and speed? You think it should fly too?
It handled traffic, stop signs, traffic lights, merging, turning.
15-20 min 12 mile journey complete without driver interaction, it done this multiple times with investors in the cars on what sounds like multiple routes etc.
Level 2......
It handled traffic, stop signs, traffic lights, merging, turning.
15-20 min 12 mile journey complete without driver interaction, it done this multiple times with investors in the cars on what sounds like multiple routes etc.
Level 2......
RobDickinson said:
Seriously? Just direction and speed? You think it should fly too?
It handled traffic, stop signs, traffic lights, merging, turning.
15-20 min 12 mile journey complete without driver interaction, it done this multiple times with investors in the cars on what sounds like multiple routes etc.
Level 2......
You still don’t get it. Level 3 is the system recognising the limits of its capabilities and handing back control in an organised fashion. You’re making the same mistake as everyone else. It handled traffic, stop signs, traffic lights, merging, turning.
15-20 min 12 mile journey complete without driver interaction, it done this multiple times with investors in the cars on what sounds like multiple routes etc.
Level 2......
And besides, Tesla pumped out a not too dissimilar video 3 years ago, nothing fundamentally new, just better implemented.
I think Tesla brought some very interesting ideas to the future of cars. The cars are fast and from a distance look nice and have features not seen before. All very cool... almost futuristic... “feels” like the right think to go and buy.
It all depends on how you see your car. I would only consider and EV for the sake of minimising pollution in city centres or to reduce my motoring costs a little. This automatically discards Tesla as a viable option due to the position/cost of their cars.
In addition if you compare their cars to similar prices ICEs the Tesla value is quite poor. I think one can forget engine comparisons because is much cheaper to make a more powerful electric motor than a more powerful ICE so putting engine aside the finish, options and luxury of a high end Tesla is not in the same level as a S Class Mercedes for example, probable not even a E Class or a A6. For me the most important part of the car is where I sit and the actual build quality.
As for self drive, ludicrous modes etc... yes gimmicks but hardly something that would make me buy a car over other. I will rather get an electric car when established manufacturers deliver one, one that mostly doesn’t need to try or doesn’t need to be all over social media to be sold. Perhaps a brand that is less evangelical... saying that I do have an iPhone because it’s good. I don’t think Tesla will ever be an Apple as the finish product is just above average quality wise. Which is not a dig but expected from a new company. They have my respect surely we will watch the future closely. Wish them the best.
It all depends on how you see your car. I would only consider and EV for the sake of minimising pollution in city centres or to reduce my motoring costs a little. This automatically discards Tesla as a viable option due to the position/cost of their cars.
In addition if you compare their cars to similar prices ICEs the Tesla value is quite poor. I think one can forget engine comparisons because is much cheaper to make a more powerful electric motor than a more powerful ICE so putting engine aside the finish, options and luxury of a high end Tesla is not in the same level as a S Class Mercedes for example, probable not even a E Class or a A6. For me the most important part of the car is where I sit and the actual build quality.
As for self drive, ludicrous modes etc... yes gimmicks but hardly something that would make me buy a car over other. I will rather get an electric car when established manufacturers deliver one, one that mostly doesn’t need to try or doesn’t need to be all over social media to be sold. Perhaps a brand that is less evangelical... saying that I do have an iPhone because it’s good. I don’t think Tesla will ever be an Apple as the finish product is just above average quality wise. Which is not a dig but expected from a new company. They have my respect surely we will watch the future closely. Wish them the best.
Heres Johnny said:
You still don’t get it. Level 3 is the system recognising the limits of its capabilities and handing back control in an organised fashion. You’re making the same mistake as everyone else.
And besides, Tesla pumped out a not too dissimilar video 3 years ago, nothing fundamentally new, just better implemented.
The most interesting thing in the announcement is that it's still just over the horizon. That's an investors pitch, not a manufacturers promise and it's designed to keep the cash flowing.And besides, Tesla pumped out a not too dissimilar video 3 years ago, nothing fundamentally new, just better implemented.
Note that though they're putting an FSD 'chip' in, they're already talking about the next generation that'll be three times as 'powerful'. That tells me that the current hardware is not actually expected to deliver FSD, and the investors just need to hang on another couple of years. When Musk pulls stunts like that, it looks more like Theranos than a reputable car company.
And, as has been made clear, getting people to drive your cars for you and then send (by definition) limited data back to you is not 'training' in any meaningful sense. Musk goes to great lengths to explain why doing less, with less equipment and less data is better than the competition - who notably also haven't cracked FSD - but a moments' thought shows that this is justification for not having the tech, not explanation for why it's not needed.
gangzoom said:
A car that can last for 1 million miles and rented out for hire when you don't need it??? That's not just a slight depature from what the entire motor industry has been doing for the last 100 years, thats resetting our entire concept of personal transportation!!
To put it into perspective, renting out ones car for minicabbing service has been common place in London for decades. It’s just maybe a new concept for the white, middle class to put their car on the game as they become less wealthy and less able to meet their consumer desires through employment income. It’s not a new idea at all. Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 23 April 03:46
Being able to do it without the need for the even less wealthy cousin, who lives in the shed at the end of the garden to do the driving bit is the new bit. But few now believe what comes out of Musk’s mouth.
DonkeyApple said:
To put it into perspective, renting out ones car for minicabbing service has been common place in London for decades. It’s just maybe a new concept for the white, middle class to put their car on the game as they become less wealthy and less able to meet their consumer desires through employment income. It’s not a new idea at all
Humm aren't you forgetting the most expensive part of any business, HR??Last time I was in a cab there was 100% a human I had to pay money to, and over the life time of a Taxi I suspect the human driver is by far the highest cost item to maintain regardless how you cost/fund the actual car.
Would I 'rent out' our Tesla? Not a chance, I barely trust my wife to drive it alone. But if your running a business with an aim of making $ for transporting people from A to B, not having to pay a human will surely do amazing things for your profit margins.
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