Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Burwood]

SWoll said:

Burwood said:

They've said they'll lose money initially. It's not a simple calculation due to the creative accounting on R&D (with car companies in Europe). But one thing is guaranteed. VAG will succeed and be a dominant player. The cost reduction curve on batteries is around 20% per annum so EV's will get cheaper.

Thought so, but of course they are big enough to swallow those losses due to continued ICE sales. I get the feeling the same goes for Polestar with the P2 as Geely willing to take the loss to get the brand out there. Probably why the 90% identical Volvo XC40 Recharge is £13k more expensive?

Highly likely. Parent companies support sub brands in various ways. Look at Tesla very recent Chinese price drop. They currently lose money and offer an even better price. Guaranteed it's a loss too. But they get bums on seats which creates nice headline sales figures and awareness. There is also the economies of scale issue. A car factory isn't efficient at anything less than near max production so my churning out more, they cost less. Polestar are starting from near zero so they need to get some volume. Short term pain, long term gain

Edited by Burwood on Thursday 15th October 12:26

[Mikehig]

For the legacy companies in the EU there is also the cost "benefit" of BEV sales reducing their exposure to CO2 fines which, I understand, are pretty draconian. So they have probably factored it into their pricing.

[SWoll]

Yep. Does how you how on a vehicle basis Tesla aren't fighting on a level playing field though if these manufacturers can afford to subsidise loss making models.

Then I suppose Tesla do make a stack of money selling carbon credits though so swings and roundabouts?

[PushedDover]

SWoll said:

Yep. Does how you how on a vehicle basis Tesla aren't fighting on a level playing field though if these manufacturers can afford to subsidise loss making models.

Then I suppose Tesla do make a stack of money selling carbon credits though so swings and roundabouts?

Can they afford NOT to ? It is the only way to survive the short term transition.

[JD]

Mikehig said:

For the legacy companies in the EU there is also the cost "benefit" of BEV sales reducing their exposure to CO2 fines which, I understand, are pretty draconian. So they have probably factored it into their pricing.

I don’t think Audi were making money on £350 a month e-from leases that’s for sure!

[98elise]

jsf said:

Imagine being able to charge £9K more for an 8 litre larger fuel tank.

Imagine paying more for a larger engined ICE car. They are literally selling you empty space

[Gandahar]

hyphen said:

Dinosaurs is a ridiculous term. As VW are showing, none of the OG's are slow and cumbersome. They are moving at pace.

Think of all the VAG brands as a pack of velociraptors

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 14th October 11:52

I'm not sure I'd say velociraptors, I think more an Iron Chicken

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s7_WbiR79E


One still brooding

The market is going to open up in 2021, interesting times, could be this for Tesla going forward

https://youtu.be/c0GyZkawz3s?t=11

Elon is light on his feet though.

[Gandahar]

jjwilde said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

To be pedantic, you are actually quoting the figure for ‘Other imports’, not Tesla sales (although they must make up the bulk of the figures). You are also quoting car registrations which don’t always equate to sales either.

The standout performance in September was probably MG, who have racked up 67% of Tesla registrations with a fraction of the publicity.

I believe MG will go on to good things their price point is easily the best value. If they make a 60 pack I would have one if it's £25- £29k.

I am hoping tho that they make a low cost roadster EV. A little MG EV. Such a gap in the market for one, would be fantastic fun with all that torque.

An MG EV that rules the roost would be a good thing, a good continuation from the bad old days

I loved the old MG's from Maestro to Montego, throw in a bit of torque steer, have a laugh a minute,

I'm afraid I have put on my rose, rather than yellow tinted glasses. I'd be happy to put on my yellow ones for MG to

ROCK THE EV WORLD in 2021

and be cheap.




The Chinese have done a far better job of it so far than the British have done, especially at the death.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/opinion/industry/remembe...





MG is now a Pheonix.

Nice work.

[Gandahar]

coetzeeh said:

Tesla vs the Dinosaurs - can Tesla maintain market share. 2019 vs 2020

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4378837-tesla-vs-...

No, but if they sell more cars in a bigger and bigger pool that will be fine.

[Gandahar]

jamoor said:

Tuna said:

jamoor said:

hyphen said:

Dinosaurs is a ridiculous term. As VW are showing, none of the OG's are slow and cumbersome. They are moving at pace.

Allegedly the ID3 and the Polestar is riddled with bugs in the software.


However its telling that Tesla have set the standard and everyone is chasing to match it.

Key quote from the article is here:

article said:

If the same pattern develops in China and North America then the Tesla exponential growth story is dead.

It depends if Tesla keeps innovating.

Is it me or is the market structure alarmingly similar to the smartphone market?

American Company launches new innovative product (Apple, Tesla)
Koreans get in on the bandwagon and give it a ruddy good shot. (Hyundai/kia/Samsung)
European manufacturers see where the market is heading and reactively try to release competing products (Nokia, Ericsson, BMW et al)
Chinese startups begin coming in swathes into the market (Xiaomi, Oppo, Nio etc)

IMO Tesla won't be the biggest in the future much like apple isn't the biggest smartphone maker but they do tend to set the agenda.

Excellent post and good summary.

I thought this was an interesting read. Been a lot of talk recently about the new iphone 12 and also Google 5, both phones released by companies with a good fanbase compared to cheap as chips but getting their others.

https://www.gsmarena.com/google_play_sees_over_28_...

That is impressive.

It's like the Persions v Sparta.



but the Persians in T-34 tanks.

And lots of them....


Same goes for Elon and his Operation Barbarossa style attack on the Germans....

You know it is going to end badly....

[Gandahar]

SWoll said:

Yep. Does how you how on a vehicle basis Tesla aren't fighting on a level playing field though if these manufacturers can afford to subsidise loss making models.

Then I suppose Tesla do make a stack of money selling carbon credits though so swings and roundabouts?

A swing and roundabout the latest FSD could traverse with ease in November 2020 [*]

It will be interesting to see how the reduced price for the model S pushes up sales

Elon has pitched it at

$69 420

Because he thinks he's funny ... ahahhahahahahahaha

That's the second price drop in a year after reducing the Model Y. They seem to be over producing Model 3 in China as well and have excess stock.


Having said all that I think that their Q3 results will be really good before a slow decline. Buy the stock now.



* Limited participants only.

[Gandahar]

98elise said:

jsf said:

Imagine being able to charge £9K more for an 8 litre larger fuel tank.

Imagine paying more for a larger engined ICE car. They are literally selling you empty space

Imagine living from home in 2020 and uprating your router !

[SWoll]

Another example of those far superior German cars and their engineering excellence..

Somebody said:

I have just been notified this by my fleet company: this isn’t an official recall notification, this is just a notice to let drivers know that in the near future a recall will be sent to you. BMW is still working on a program to recall all these vehicles, so in the meantime if you could please just follow the safety precautions

The make and model of vehicle affected is: BMW 330e Saloon 2.0 Phev

The instructions received from BMW for drivers to follow are shown below:

1. AVOID charging the vehicle using the charge cable.
2. Leave the car in auto comfort mode for every journey, avoiding use of battery save mode.
3. AVOID shifting gears using the steering wheel paddles (if fitted) or manually by pushing the gear selector to the left.

BMW have advised that they will shortly be issuing communications directly to customers as a notification message, following the above simple guidance points can be used safely and until BMW are in a position to communicate a service solution.

Has anyone else been made aware of the above?

[coetzeeh]

Gandahar said:

SWoll said:

That's the second price drop in a year after reducing the Model Y. They seem to be over producing Model 3 in China as well and have excess stock.

* Limited participants only.

You may be right - Looks like a shipment of SR LHD from Shanghai to Europe this quarter.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/2020-shipp...

[jamoor]

Burwood said:

Highly likely. Parent companies support sub brands in various ways. Look at Tesla very recent Chinese price drop. They currently lose money and offer an even better price. Guaranteed it's a loss too. But they get bums on seats which creates nice headline sales figures and awareness. There is also the economies of scale issue. A car factory isn't efficient at anything less than near max production so my churning out more, they cost less. Polestar are starting from near zero so they need to get some volume. Short term pain, long term gain

Edited by Burwood on Thursday 15th October 12:26

Not only that but the more cars on the road, the more data they receive

[anonymous-user]

Cruise has permission to run driverless cars in San Francisco

https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idU...

[jjwilde]

JPJPJP said:

Cruise has permission to run driverless cars in San Francisco

https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idU...

This thread goes on about driverless cars as if they will never happen yet in some places you can order and use them right now (and have been able to for some time).

It's already here yet for some reason it's 'impossible' for Tesla to do it...

[TheRainMaker]

jjwilde said:

This thread goes on about driverless cars as if they will never happen yet in some places you can order and use them right now (and have been able to for some time).

It's already here yet for some reason it's 'impossible' for Tesla to do it...

Where can you buy and use a passenger car which drives in normal traffic?

[Smiljan]

You can't, I think he's referring to the taxi article in his post.

[Burwood]

jjwilde said:

JPJPJP said:

Cruise has permission to run driverless cars in San Francisco

https://uk.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idU...

This thread goes on about driverless cars as if they will never happen yet in some places you can order and use them right now (and have been able to for some time).

It's already here yet for some reason it's 'impossible' for Tesla to do it...

What does the cruise car do? It has a million cameras on it and a driver-get real mate. My gran has a level 5 car. It’s me taking her home. What a joke