Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?
Discussion
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I suspect EVs will maintain (or indeed extend) their tax breaks until there aren't enough ICE vehicles left on the road to realistically raise the required revenue from them. I think we'll see ICE taxation continue to rise until EVs make up at least 90% of the cars on the road. This is why IMO any real petrolhead should be praying for the mainstream to transition to EVs as quickly as possible because the longer it takes, the higher the cost of running ICE vehicles will end up being. anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yup, which is why if the government is serious about significantly reducing the emissions from transportation, the entire structure of society will have to change to bring these people closer together. If it's going to happen the transition to EVs cannot be viewed with an attitude of "we'll be able to carry on doing everything we did before". Same with other emissions. Yes we may be able to make factories, planes, heating systems, etc. more efficient but that on its own wont be enough. We need to buy (and hence make) less stuff, fly less, better insulate our houses, etc. so we simply use less of those things. This will, of course, have an enormous impact on the economy, although whether it damages the economy or simply changes it remains to be seen.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 15th November 12:32
One reason why EV's cost more is to keep demand down until the infrastructure is in place. Pushing it a bit to get it done by 2030, but the nearer they get, the cheaper EV's will become. Battery technology will continue to evolve and new solutions to charging will come - then it will be the "New Normal" Meantime I'll keep enjoy my ICE MX-5...!
Darumvej said:
Once a week, how many miles do you do in a week?
The average UK car use per day is 19 miles or 133miles a week, but let's say 150 . A 20min charge on a modern EV on a modern rapid will add 193 miles (assuming you go when you're nearing empty, 10% or so).So you'd perhaps not even need to go once a week.
Edited by jjwilde on Sunday 15th November 12:43
Averages are great but there's a distribution and peaks and troughs to think about. Life is much more complex than to just throw averages at a situation.
Five people needed to eat ten sausages a day, each, to survive.
Five people needed to eat five sausages a day, each, to survive.
The sausage factory deduced that 7.5 sausages was the mean average daily demand per customer so sent out single packets of 8 sausages to their ten customers each day.
Five people died.
Five people needed to eat ten sausages a day, each, to survive.
Five people needed to eat five sausages a day, each, to survive.
The sausage factory deduced that 7.5 sausages was the mean average daily demand per customer so sent out single packets of 8 sausages to their ten customers each day.
Five people died.
jamoor said:
Roofless Toothless said:
Only 40% of the UK rail network is electrified at the moment.
To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
Luckily the motorways don’t need overhead electricity cables running up and down them otherwise I would agree.To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
jamoor said:
Roofless Toothless said:
Only 40% of the UK rail network is electrified at the moment.
To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
Luckily the motorways don’t need overhead electricity cables running up and down them otherwise I would agree.To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
Richard-D said:
jamoor said:
Roofless Toothless said:
Only 40% of the UK rail network is electrified at the moment.
To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
Luckily the motorways don’t need overhead electricity cables running up and down them otherwise I would agree.To get the roads electrified in 10 years seems a bit ambitious to me.
Sorry, make that 9 and a bit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/30/uk-trials-hydrogen...
Richard-D said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I think you're about to be told that five of those people were in the wrong to have needs that weren't met by the average being distributed.Lets comsider smoking:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoking_in_the_Unite...
"In 1962, over 80% of British men and 40% of British women smoked. And as recently as 1974, 45% of the British population smoked. This was down to 30% by the early-1990s, 21% by 2010, and 19.3% by 2013; the lowest level recorded for eighty years.[1] In 2015, it was reported smoking rates in England had fallen to just 16.9%; a record low."
In 1962, to suggest that smoking would be broadly be socially unacceptable, and that the provision of facility to encourage or support smoking would also be considered a minority enterprise, would have been laughable. And yet, here we are.
So let me suggest, that in some years time it could be that driving long distances just to be physically present will be similarly frowned upon. In 5 years? In 10 years, in 50 years? Well, that's harder to answer, but i am reaonably sure that some of the things we do today, especially things that only have a historic link (ie are not necessarily required because they can be achieved in other ways that have a lower penalty), some of those things will indeed be as socially un-acceptable as smoking has become today.
And let me make another point. IMO, at some point, if climate change is indeed a "thing" there will be a major event that will act as a tipping point. We don't know what that event might be, but consider for a moment a day that the Thames barrier is overwhelmed and a large proportion of London is flooded. At that point, social pressures will change incredibly rapidly. Needless waste and consumption of non-renewable energy could well not just become socially unacceptable, but actually illegal! How long do you think it would take for a legal Bill mandating that to pass in the Houses of Parliment when they have to vote standing in 3 feet of dirty Thames water and sewage?
And finally, let me also make it clear that the source angostic and fundmentally bi-directional nature of a BEV make it possible for it to ACTIVELY normalise your "problem" peaks and troughs. And not just to load level, but to load level with a positive financial gain to the owner! If you have a car, at home, which is charged, and you don't actuially need to drive 300 miles tomorrow, then you can, easily and with very high effiiciency, sell that energy back to the grid at peak times, and generate a positive income doing that.
In your "sausages" example, it's basically the same as me having a couple of spare packets of sausages in the freezer, who i can sell to people who have run out today. They need them, i have surplus i don't need, so i sell to the needy. Tomorrow, it might be me who's run out, so if i fancy sauages, i too can benefit and become the purchaser. A BEV can do that, in fact, it's fundamental in the nature of electricity and power conversion that it can do that! This is why the National Grid themselves seen passcar BEV as an ENABLER and not a problem......
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 15th November 15:28
Heartworm said:
jjwilde said:
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
Ridiculous stance, and I’m coming from a heavily positive electric vehicle stance. In 5 years there will be plenty ice cars still being sold, I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.I do think however that this regulation change will eventually push many into going EV earlier than they had maybe planned because making something with an ICE that passes the tests is just gonna be too hard and too costly.
For example, they are proposing that any vehicle should be able to pass any real world driving scenario within -10 to +40degC. That is the only boundary condition, everything else is fair game... so fully laden, with a roof box and bikes and doing full throttle on the motor way slip road, it will need to pass. Trundling 5km down to the shops at 37mph where it doesn’t even get properly warm, it needs to pass.
And for passing, they mean meeting the limits (tighter than euro6) without the current conformity factors they use today which allow for higher on-road emissions than in the lab test. Cold start will also become unweighted (current weighted to reduce the impact on the result).
They are also looking at replication of road tests in the lab to monitor more esoteric emissions that PEMS kits cannot, introduction of sub 10 nm particulates measurement and 150,000 mile in-service conformity.
It’s gonna be hard!
Otispunkmeyer said:
Heartworm said:
jjwilde said:
It's better than nothing but it could easily be 2026.
I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a st about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.
Ridiculous stance, and I’m coming from a heavily positive electric vehicle stance. In 5 years there will be plenty ice cars still being sold, I doubt many people will be buying ICE in 5 years anyway, so it may happen sooner organically. I hope it does.
If people are still driving around in ICE in a few years well they clearly just don't give a s
t about local air and I hope they are fined off the roads.I do think however that this regulation change will eventually push many into going EV earlier than they had maybe planned because making something with an ICE that passes the tests is just gonna be too hard and too costly.
For example, they are proposing that any vehicle should be able to pass any real world driving scenario within -10 to +40degC. That is the only boundary condition, everything else is fair game... so fully laden, with a roof box and bikes and doing full throttle on the motor way slip road, it will need to pass. Trundling 5km down to the shops at 37mph where it doesn’t even get properly warm, it needs to pass.
And for passing, they mean meeting the limits (tighter than euro6) without the current conformity factors they use today which allow for higher on-road emissions than in the lab test. Cold start will also become unweighted (current weighted to reduce the impact on the result).
They are also looking at replication of road tests in the lab to monitor more esoteric emissions that PEMS kits cannot, introduction of sub 10 nm particulates measurement and 150,000 mile in-service conformity.
It’s gonna be hard!
It was thought that perhaps performance and premium cars might stay ICE only for longer,but thanks to their high consumption and hence high CO2, chances are they will have to go at least hybrid in order for the buisness case to add up.
For example, look at the fines in the France from 2021:
The headline needs thinking about: the 2030 ban on petrol cars doesn't mean petrol and diesel cars will be banned. It means new ones sold from then will be hybrids. Loads of new cars sold today are hybrids. There will be huge (if dwindling) demand for petrol and diesel fuel in the UK long after that.
I don't see a problem for those who want a hydrocarbon-powered vehicle after 2030. Most new cars are bought on lease, so in ten years' time I reckon there'll be some great used ICE bargains to be had. Anyone who spends their own money on a pure ICE vehicle after about 2028 should go for a brain scan. Like it or not, EVs are coming!
PS: I own 2 cars, neither either of which are electrified: a petrol classic car and a modern diesel.
I don't see a problem for those who want a hydrocarbon-powered vehicle after 2030. Most new cars are bought on lease, so in ten years' time I reckon there'll be some great used ICE bargains to be had. Anyone who spends their own money on a pure ICE vehicle after about 2028 should go for a brain scan. Like it or not, EVs are coming!
PS: I own 2 cars, neither either of which are electrified: a petrol classic car and a modern diesel.
Europa Jon said:
The headline needs thinking about: the 2030 ban on petrol cars doesn't mean petrol and diesel cars will be banned. It means new ones sold from then will be hybrids. Loads of new cars sold today are hybrids. There will be huge (if dwindling) demand for petrol and diesel fuel in the UK long after that.
I don't see a problem for those who want a hydrocarbon-powered vehicle after 2030. Most new cars are bought on lease, so in ten years' time I reckon there'll be some great used ICE bargains to be had. Anyone who spends their own money on a pure ICE vehicle after about 2028 should go for a brain scan. Like it or not, EVs are coming!
PS: I own 2 cars, neither either of which are electrified: a petrol classic car and a modern diesel.
Currently plan is hybrids will only get another five years beyond full ICE; so if ICE sales are stopped in 2030, hybrids will go in 2035. I don't see a problem for those who want a hydrocarbon-powered vehicle after 2030. Most new cars are bought on lease, so in ten years' time I reckon there'll be some great used ICE bargains to be had. Anyone who spends their own money on a pure ICE vehicle after about 2028 should go for a brain scan. Like it or not, EVs are coming!
PS: I own 2 cars, neither either of which are electrified: a petrol classic car and a modern diesel.
SWoll said:
For the posters who have concerns around current BEV range and the affect it would have on their daily lives due to having to stop and charge regularly I'd be interested in knowing what it is that you are actually doing at these various locations?
I'm in telecoms, mobile phone masts need much tender attention. Thankfully my on call days are far behind me but there will still be plenty of people getting a phone call at 2am to get over to a site who knows where that has gone down. The clock will be ticking as well, usual SLA is 4 hours from receiving the call to getting on site.For me now it's just regular site visits, up to 4 a day, hopefully reasonably local as we have a large team spread around the country but big mileages are always possible. Last week I went from the midlands to KIlmarnock to Edinburgh to Aberdeen. The next day was back to the midlands via a fairly remote site in Cumbria. A total of over 800 miles so might have been tough in an EV.
Having said that I'm reasonably open to an EV future, all telecom sites have 3 phase power running to them so no reason why the operators couldn't install some sort of charging facility. The only real problem for me is I don't like spending a lot of money on cars. How far away are we from a used market of EV's where something equivalent to say a Mondeo is available for sub £10000?
I suspect that'll be closer to 2040 than to 2030 so I'm fairly sure I'll be in an ICE for a good while yet.
jurbie said:
The only real problem for me is I don't like spending a lot of money on cars. How far away are we from a used market of EV's where something equivalent to say a Mondeo is available for sub £10000?
This year I have dipped my foot in the water with a F30 330e PHEV, and used EV prices (for the brands I like) are unlikely to fall substantially so I'm likely to end up with the G20 330e next. Hopefully after that they will have come down to a sensible level.My main worry with current battery tech is yes, you may find a suitable vehicle below £10,000. But much like a 4 year old iPhone, you're hoping the battery's going to last more than a day! I'm sure future battery tech will be longer lasting, but there will always be the problem of degrading batteries as you move towards 10+ years old. Even with a 15 year old ICE you're likely to find it runs as well as day one providing it has been serviced and cared for.
kambites said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Yup, which is why if the government is serious about significantly reducing the emissions from transportation, the entire structure of society will have to change to bring these people closer together. If it's going to happen the transition to EVs cannot be viewed with an attitude of "we'll be able to carry on doing everything we did before". Same with other emissions. Yes we may be able to make factories, planes, heating systems, etc. more efficient but that on its own wont be enough. We need to buy (and hence make) less stuff, fly less, better insulate our houses, etc. so we simply use less of those things. This will, of course, have an enormous impact on the economy, although whether it damages the economy or simply changes it remains to be seen.
Edited by kambites on Sunday 15th November 12:32
I would expect this trend to continue which should significantly reduce the projected requirement for rapid public charging and the number of drivers who absolutely need a vehicle that can do 300+ miles without a charging stop as is often suggested on these threads?
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