Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...
Discussion
hyphen said:
Taken 17 years to pass the 1% mark globally, and in those 17 years the main manufacturers have, and continue to sell a ton of vehicles- and at a profit 
whilst Tesla has been burnin cash.
How do you see the sales of EVs in 8 years from now? whilst Tesla has been burnin cash.Edited by hyphen on Saturday 13th July 20:25
jjwilde said:
How do you see the sales of EVs in 8 years from now?
I couldn't say, a lot depends on how much the governments in the major markets meddle with it. But costs are coming down so a massive rise will happen once ICE cars are no longer cheaper.October 2018, JP Morgan
https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-...
Deloitte, Jan 2019
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/...
jjwilde said:
But do you have an opinion, a guess?
Nope 
Its all over the place at the moment, for example we have the UK government saying all EV asap, but then National Grid comment saying sure, but we will have to allocate time slots to charger them, as they cant all be plugged in at 6pm when people get home from work or the grid will collapse... Will Hinkley Point C be delivered by 2025? https://www.reuters.com/article/edf-flamanville/up...
Edited by hyphen on Saturday 13th July 22:38
the supercharger network does seem to be what sets tesla apart from the others,
it the mainstream manufacturers could get their act together and agree a fixed standard and start rolling it out with gusto they would take a sizeable chunk of teslas business.
Ford BMW VW Merc tie toyota all agree a standard and engage with BP/Shell to roll out using their real estate rather then the 3rd parties that are doing so at the moment you could be easily putting a european wide charging network from scratch inside 12 months
it the mainstream manufacturers could get their act together and agree a fixed standard and start rolling it out with gusto they would take a sizeable chunk of teslas business.
Ford BMW VW Merc tie toyota all agree a standard and engage with BP/Shell to roll out using their real estate rather then the 3rd parties that are doing so at the moment you could be easily putting a european wide charging network from scratch inside 12 months
RobDickinson said:
Ccs type 2 is the standard and the network is getting built, but it's lots of smaller networks they need to sort out a global pay system
Yes, the membership / unique card / app that charging networks seem to like to aim for is rubbish. Just make it easy to roll up and pay and charge and go: card / phone like most other fuel retailThey’re increasingly moving to a contactless credit card - a universal network.
The expansion of the uk supercharger network is claimed to be heavily delayed by getting legal access across 3rd party land to power supplies for 8 bay+ sites. Other companies looking to install 2 stand 100kw CCS seem to avoid the issue. It may not be long before the ubiquity of CCS on every corner outweighs the benefit of a few massive supercharger locations, just look at ionity and their roll out in very little time.
The expansion of the uk supercharger network is claimed to be heavily delayed by getting legal access across 3rd party land to power supplies for 8 bay+ sites. Other companies looking to install 2 stand 100kw CCS seem to avoid the issue. It may not be long before the ubiquity of CCS on every corner outweighs the benefit of a few massive supercharger locations, just look at ionity and their roll out in very little time.
RobDickinson said:
Ccs type 2 is the standard and the network is getting built, but it's lots of smaller networks they need to sort out a global pay system
CCS Type 2 had been the 'standard' for years in the EU, the current UK charging network is awful, worse than in 2015 in many ways, half the chargers seem to have changes owners so the branding on the charger might not even be right...anyone here remeber signing up to Source?? Try driving up to Scotland relying on CCS.....even in a Model 3 best to be avoided and pack a CHADEMO adaptor.That should change, but we been hearing the same stories about EV uptake as well.
Remember the Tesco chargers announced last year?
https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/tesco-free-elect...
Has anyone seen any installed at their store?
https://inews.co.uk/news/consumer/tesco-free-elect...
Has anyone seen any installed at their store?
gangzoom said:
CCS Type 2 had been the 'standard' for years in the EU, the current UK charging network is awful, worse than in 2015 in many ways,
In the north east I'd go as far to say it's possibly worse than it was in 2012(!). In 2011 they installed a really good network of rapids / on street chargers which were free to use and maintained really well. Then the funding stopped and they all slowly were left to die. The on street chargers from that time are still all there but only 1 (yes ONE) works.Now it's a mess. If it was not for Gateshead council installing a second batch of iffy rapid chargers in 2015 it WOULD be worse.
Glasgowrob said:
the supercharger network does seem to be what sets tesla apart from the others,
it the mainstream manufacturers could get their act together and agree a fixed standard and start rolling it out with gusto they would take a sizeable chunk of teslas business.
Ford BMW VW Merc tie toyota all agree a standard and engage with BP/Shell to roll out using their real estate rather then the 3rd parties that are doing so at the moment you could be easily putting a european wide charging network from scratch inside 12 months
There isn’t any business to take yet. We’ve got to be pragmatic with our thinking. The EV market is still very small and only currently exists outside of Tesla because of heavy subsidies and taxation. The major manufacturers need EV demand to be a magnitude or so higher to justify investment. Same with the oil majors who are gearing up to take control of the charging market. it the mainstream manufacturers could get their act together and agree a fixed standard and start rolling it out with gusto they would take a sizeable chunk of teslas business.
Ford BMW VW Merc tie toyota all agree a standard and engage with BP/Shell to roll out using their real estate rather then the 3rd parties that are doing so at the moment you could be easily putting a european wide charging network from scratch inside 12 months
It isn’t difficult to build a pan UK, standardised charging network but whoever builds it will have to invest billions but get no return for years. Established corporates don’t generally act like that. Start-ups and governments are the entities that burn billions for zero immediate return.
We are still very much in the fledgling phase for EVs. There is no huge demand, no real profits, it exists only because of Government taxation. The reason is that the products are still too expensive and it is pricing that will really be the tipping point that sees those that can change doing so and with them will come the revenue potential for building the full infrastructure.
Whether this is 5, 10 or 20 years away is the unknown.
DonkeyApple said:
There isn’t any business to take yet. We’ve got to be pragmatic with our thinking. The EV market is still very small and only currently exists outside of Tesla because of heavy subsidies and taxation. The major manufacturers need EV demand to be a magnitude or so higher to justify investment. Same with the oil majors who are gearing up to take control of the charging market.
It isn’t difficult to build a pan UK, standardised charging network but whoever builds it will have to invest billions but get no return for years. Established corporates don’t generally act like that. Start-ups and governments are the entities that burn billions for zero immediate return.
We are still very much in the fledgling phase for EVs. There is no huge demand, no real profits, it exists only because of Government taxation. The reason is that the products are still too expensive and it is pricing that will really be the tipping point that sees those that can change doing so and with them will come the revenue potential for building the full infrastructure.
Whether this is 5, 10 or 20 years away is the unknown.
Only partly agree - the big chain petrol stations are starting to implement charging and the new breed of micro service station (petrol, a Gregs, a coffee shop and a mini supermarket) is the new model and they’ve adding chargersIt isn’t difficult to build a pan UK, standardised charging network but whoever builds it will have to invest billions but get no return for years. Established corporates don’t generally act like that. Start-ups and governments are the entities that burn billions for zero immediate return.
We are still very much in the fledgling phase for EVs. There is no huge demand, no real profits, it exists only because of Government taxation. The reason is that the products are still too expensive and it is pricing that will really be the tipping point that sees those that can change doing so and with them will come the revenue potential for building the full infrastructure.
Whether this is 5, 10 or 20 years away is the unknown.
Petrol stations make more from their ancillary sales and have done for a while, what better way to exploit than have a rapid charger and a person with 30 mins to kill.
The big locations as I said earlier are a real challenge here - you need a 1Mw power supply and that’s the same as a small housing estate.
The Tesla model is fixated with massive centralised charging locations, I believe it will not be long before a rapid charge of other makes will be no more than 10 mins away from wherever you are in urban areas. Just plot some of the new networks and see, this is just the instavolt rapid network across the midlands, credit card payment, modern chargers etc
Edited by Heres Johnny on Sunday 14th July 12:06
Heres Johnny said:
Petrol stations make more from their ancillary sales and have done for a while, what better way to exploit than have a rapid charger and a person with 30 mins to kill.
Precisely. It's a coffee shop with a charging station, not a charging station with a coffee shop! There'll be plenty of demand for coffee and cake.Witchfinder said:
Precisely. It's a coffee shop with a charging station, not a charging station with a coffee shop! There'll be plenty of demand for coffee and cake.
Isn't Tesla already getting in on that game at some sites in the USA? It's weird they didn't try to profit from every single supercharger site from the start. It's free money from captive (rich) customers. Could have all manner of hipster over priced food 
jjwilde said:
Isn't Tesla already getting in on that game at some sites in the USA? It's weird they didn't try to profit from every single supercharger site from the start. It's free money from captive (rich) customers. Could have all manner of hipster over priced food
my man math for a free supercharging model S factors that I will go and spend £5 in Costa while the fuel is free. Key part of my business plan to buy one.
Witchfinder said:
Heres Johnny said:
Petrol stations make more from their ancillary sales and have done for a while, what better way to exploit than have a rapid charger and a person with 30 mins to kill.
Precisely. It's a coffee shop with a charging station, not a charging station with a coffee shop! There'll be plenty of demand for coffee and cake.Charging will be focussed around destinations, not tiny bits of real estate by the side of the road. They will be in car parks where people with EVs park and where the commercial enterprise who use those car parks want to attract consumers.
And the deals have already been done. The last 5 years the energy companies have all been in a race to do these deals. They’ve been done with the motorway service operators, the carp park owners and the shop owners. They’ve gone out and bought the tech companies at the same time. Everything is already done but the one key ingredient is missing and that’s the customer. Until a key threshold of customer numbers has been passed then no company is going to invest their money as there is no profit. And the incredibly slow rate of EV growth means that unless tax payer money is just given away to pay for the infrastructure we are still some way off.
Witchfinder said:
Heres Johnny said:
Petrol stations make more from their ancillary sales and have done for a while, what better way to exploit than have a rapid charger and a person with 30 mins to kill.
Precisely. It's a coffee shop with a charging station, not a charging station with a coffee shop! There'll be plenty of demand for coffee and cake.Charging will be focussed around destinations, not tiny bits of real estate by the side of the road. They will be in car parks where people with EVs park and where the commercial enterprise who use those car parks want to attract consumers.
And the deals have already been done. The last 5 years the energy companies have all been in a race to do these deals. They’ve been done with the motorway service operators, the carp park owners and the shop owners. They’ve gone out and bought the tech companies at the same time. Everything is already done but the one key ingredient is missing and that’s the customer. Until a key threshold of customer numbers has been passed then no company is going to invest their money as there is no profit. And the incredibly slow rate of EV growth means that unless tax payer money is just given away to pay for the infrastructure we are still some way off.
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