Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Burwood]

Big auto predicts that pure EV will account for 30% of global sales in 2030. The ICE is a long way from dead. Daimler will be producing alt fuel engines in 2024 as a JV with the Koreans.

[jamoor]

Heres Johnny said:

jamoor said:

ZesPak said:

So a huge saloon that does 0-60 in sub 3 seconds and is cheap as chips to run is not a game changer?

And requires practically zero maintanance.

My Tesla Model S P90DL has cost the same per month including everything over 3 years as my last ICE which was a BMW 640d gran coupe. Tax incentives are increasingly assisting the EV but to suggest its cheap as chips... hmmm

A Tesla Model S 100D 2019 - the average advertised price has fallen 10k in the last year, a P100D has fallen nearly 15k.

The Model 3 is slightly better, but a M3P has still fallen about 6k in the last year, its fallen 2k since October.. Tesla themselves are discounting their 2020 demo cars by 4k at the moment.

The value proposition depends on how many miles, whether its a company car, how often you like to change, whether you have to public charge a lot, Have a Tesla as a company car and travel a lot requiring you to use superchargers for business and you'll be paying about 8p a mile and getting 4p back - you make a loss of 4p for every mile. Charge at home and just do the commute and it might cost you 2p a mile v petrol which would have cost you say 15p its a saving. Most new ICE can be bought with a service pack which covers 3 years of maintenance for quite small money £500 over 3 years - £160 a year of £3 a week - hardly worth calling out as a serious expense. I had my Tesla serviced and it cost £600 at Tesla for one service. Second service and MOT was at an an Indy and it still cost over £200.

Nothing like some objectivity in the detail

Edited by Heres Johnny on Monday 14th December 09:55

The model s expensive so has high depreciation no matter what.

The model 3s however hold their money like crazy.

I bought mine with 0 miles for 36.5 a year ago.

Today the cheapest one on AT is 35k.

When I bought mine the performance was I think 51k? the cheapest on AT now is 47.5k.

Less than 10% depreciation in a year for a 0 miles car is a steal.

Service pack for £1,000 for 36,000 miles on a BMW M3? - That's 2p per mile. On the tesla the fuel is 3-4p per mile. Keep the BMW M3 for longer and its value proposition vanishes entirely.

Oh and you should be comparing your Tesla p90DL to an M6 or something like that - not the base spec diesel.

Edited by jamoor on Monday 14th December 10:09

Edited by jamoor on Monday 14th December 10:09

[gangzoom]

ZesPak said:

Same old same old "I don't want a phone that I need to charge every day" and "I don't want a 500 EUR phone".

500 EUR phone, I hope you're not exposing your self or your family to such indignity!!!

I mean come on, even Apple is now trying to help you out by giving you a chance to buy a new 'cheap' tiny mini iPhone, its also environmentally friendly because it doesn't come with a charger........£1100 on phone and you need to still go and buy a charger to use it, makes Tesla marketing look amateurish

https://www.apple.com/uk/iphone-12/

[Burwood]

Today VW say it will be the biggest EV seller in 2021 and it's accelerating its EV plans based on the ID.4 sales figures in China.

[jamoor]

gangzoom said:

500 EUR phone, I hope you're not exposing your self or your family to such indignity!!!

I mean come on, even Apple is now trying to help you out by giving you a chance to buy a new 'cheap' tiny mini iPhone, its also environmentally friendly because it doesn't come with a charger........£1100 on phone and you need to still go and buy a charger to use it, makes Tesla marketing look amateurish

https://www.apple.com/uk/iphone-12/

Unless you already have a charger though, which I am assuming 99.9% of people that buy those already have one or several.

[Heres Johnny]

jamoor said:

Oh and you should be comparing your Tesla p90DL to an M6 or something like that - not the base spec diesel.

No I shouldn't. My 640d covered ground when there was a corner just as quick, and was far better in many respects - better seats, head up display, soft close doors, surround view cameras, adaptive suspension and 700 miles before needing to fill up. There is simply no way you can compare a M6 to a Model S performance except in one metric - straight line grunt.

Check depreciation figures again and look at the trend. I also remember a guy on the Tesla owners group years ago who used to tell everybody he made money on every Tesla he purchased. A few months later Tesla chopped 45k off the P100D price and he was never to be seen again.

Try selling a tesla today? Have you seen how long some of those cars have been listed for?

[LimJim]

If this is anything to go by, the markets are betting heavily on EV, but don't seem optimistic that the likes of VAG will dominate EV sales in 10 years time.

I wonder if/when we will ever have a China section on PH?

Edited by LimJim on Monday 14th December 11:44

[Smiljan]

jamoor said:

The model s expensive so has high depreciation no matter what.

The model 3s however hold their money like crazy.

I bought mine with 0 miles for 36.5 a year ago.

Today the cheapest one on AT is 35k.

When I bought mine the performance was I think 51k? the cheapest on AT now is 47.5k.

Less than 10% depreciation in a year for a 0 miles car is a steal.

Service pack for £1,000 for 36,000 miles on a BMW M3? - That's 2p per mile. On the tesla the fuel is 3-4p per mile. Keep the BMW M3 for longer and its value proposition vanishes entirely.

Oh and you should be comparing your Tesla p90DL to an M6 or something like that - not the base spec diesel.

2nd hand Model S and Model 3's really struggle to sell. The cheaper Model S' are still too expensive given they're mostly high mileage short range versions with no idea how fast they might be able to charge, no CCS and MCU's that could fall over dead any moment.

The 2nd hand Model 3's are too expensive given new ones can be had for pennies for business users and they're advertised at silly prices. Would you pay 37-38k for a used one with miles on it or just of £40k for a brand new refresh model? The same ones have been listed in Autotrader over and over again.

I suspect the Model 3 will do extremely well next year for new sales but as always when you have lots of a particular model being sold in bulk it's inevitable 2 or 3 years down the line at changeover time there'll be a mass of used ones on the market all at once. Tesla list the 4 year residual at around £16-£18k on their finance page.

I wonder if already the "older" versions are less desirable given the number of upgraded bits and bobs they're fitted since the first release along with the recent refresh.

I'd suspect real depreciation over 3 years to be similar to any similarly priced new car - £300-£400 a month. Personally I feel Tesla have set their residuals a little bit too low.

I'm still closely watching the Model S 2nd hand prices as I want to get back in one at some point. Just nothing that attractive at the right price yet.

[jamoor]

Smiljan said:

2nd hand Model S and Model 3's really struggle to sell. The cheaper Model S' are still too expensive given they're mostly high mileage short range versions with no idea how fast they might be able to charge, no CCS and MCU's that could fall over dead any moment.

The 2nd hand Model 3's are too expensive given new ones can be had for pennies for business users and they're advertised at silly prices. Would you pay 37-38k for a used one with miles on it or just of £40k for a brand new refresh model? The same ones have been listed in Autotrader over and over again.

I suspect the Model 3 will do extremely well next year for new sales but as always when you have lots of a particular model being sold in bulk it's inevitable 2 or 3 years down the line at changeover time there'll be a mass of used ones on the market all at once. Tesla list the 4 year residual at around £16-£18k on their finance page.

I wonder if already the "older" versions are less desirable given the number of upgraded bits and bobs they're fitted since the first release along with the recent refresh.

I'd suspect real depreciation over 3 years to be similar to any similarly priced new car - £300-£400 a month. Personally I feel Tesla have set their residuals a little bit too low.

I'm still closely watching the Model S 2nd hand prices as I want to get back in one at some point. Just nothing that attractive at the right price yet.

This is true I guess we have no idea about depreciation for another 2 years imo.

[SWoll]

Smiljan said:

jamoor said:

The model s expensive so has high depreciation no matter what.

The model 3s however hold their money like crazy.

I bought mine with 0 miles for 36.5 a year ago.

Today the cheapest one on AT is 35k.

When I bought mine the performance was I think 51k? the cheapest on AT now is 47.5k.

Less than 10% depreciation in a year for a 0 miles car is a steal.

Service pack for £1,000 for 36,000 miles on a BMW M3? - That's 2p per mile. On the tesla the fuel is 3-4p per mile. Keep the BMW M3 for longer and its value proposition vanishes entirely.

Oh and you should be comparing your Tesla p90DL to an M6 or something like that - not the base spec diesel.

2nd hand Model S and Model 3's really struggle to sell. The cheaper Model S' are still too expensive given they're mostly high mileage short range versions with no idea how fast they might be able to charge, no CCS and MCU's that could fall over dead any moment.

The 2nd hand Model 3's are too expensive given new ones can be had for pennies for business users and they're advertised at silly prices. Would you pay 37-38k for a used one with miles on it or just of £40k for a brand new refresh model? The same ones have been listed in Autotrader over and over again.

I suspect the Model 3 will do extremely well next year for new sales but as always when you have lots of a particular model being sold in bulk it's inevitable 2 or 3 years down the line at changeover time there'll be a mass of used ones on the market all at once. Tesla list the 4 year residual at around £16-£18k on their finance page.

I wonder if already the "older" versions are less desirable given the number of upgraded bits and bobs they're fitted since the first release along with the recent refresh.

I'd suspect real depreciation over 3 years to be similar to any similarly priced new car - £300-£400 a month. Personally I feel Tesla have set their residuals a little bit too low.

I'm still closely watching the Model S 2nd hand prices as I want to get back in one at some point. Just nothing that attractive at the right price yet.

Agree on the likely depreciation figures for the Model 3 but what comparable £40k ICE car only loses £10-15k in 3 years from new?

As an example this 430i GC (a £40k+ car when new) is for sale at < £20k at 3 years old and 37k miles from a franchised dealer.



Tesla's residuals are a joke to keep PCP/Leasing costs high of course, I don't believe for a second we'll see a 3 year old SR+ with < 40k miles for under £25k personally.

[Tuna]

jamoor said:

This is true I guess we have no idea about depreciation for another 2 years imo.

Then perhaps stop making silly claims in the mean time?

[Smiljan]

SWoll said:

Agree on the likely depreciation figures for the Model 3 but what comparable £40k ICE car only loses £10-15k in 3 years from new?

As an example this 430i GC (a £40k+ car when new) is for sale at < £20k at 3 years old and 37k miles from a franchised dealer.



Tesla's residuals are a joke to keep PCP/Leasing costs high of course, I don't believe for a second we'll see a 3 year old SR+ with < 40k miles for under £25k personally.

This is what makes things so tricky, it's hard to know how many actually pay £40k+ for a 430i GC. BMW heavily discount their cars from list. Add in fleet deals and lease deals with dealer finance it becomes even more murky.

Tesla don't discount from new although their list prices have a habit of going up and down over the years. It's really hard to nail down exactly how much depreciation a car really has.

One things for sure, you don't buy new to "save money". Mass produced cars always have to depreciate to some extent else what's the point in buying them , you'd just buy new. Tesla isn't immune from that.

Once the Model Y starts appearing in Europe, depending on price. that may further hit the Model 3 used prices.

[LimJim]

Tuna said:

jamoor said:

This is true I guess we have no idea about depreciation for another 2 years imo.

Then perhaps stop making silly claims in the mean time?

If only there was a country where the 3 had already been on sale for 3 full years,.

[jason61c]

Heres Johnny said:

No I shouldn't. My 640d covered ground when there was a corner just as quick, and was far better in many respects - better seats, head up display, soft close doors, surround view cameras, adaptive suspension and 700 miles before needing to fill up. There is simply no way you can compare a M6 to a Model S performance except in one metric - straight line grunt.

Check depreciation figures again and look at the trend. I also remember a guy on the Tesla owners group years ago who used to tell everybody he made money on every Tesla he purchased. A few months later Tesla chopped 45k off the P100D price and he was never to be seen again.

Try selling a tesla today? Have you seen how long some of those cars have been listed for?

I abandoned plans of an all electric car, bought a 640d gran coupe, 2018, 11k miles, £27.5k.

In no way did an electric car stack up at all. Given my company pay me £0.45 a mile, lets say thats only 5000 miles now, thats £2.2k towards running costs.

Electric car would be £0.04 a mile, £200. given you have to pay to charge away from home, the maths on a proper luxury car just don't stack up.

I hope, well would like to see one of the EV makers, have a properly built car, that will do a genuine 350miles of UK motorway speed in the rain.

[Smiljan]

LimJim said:

If only there was a country where the 3 had already been on sale for 3 full years,.

There is, again without doing an enormous amount of research it's very hard to find out how much depreciation there has been. They were even worse for the list price yo-yo and ever changing state and federal taxes.

Since we're all just guessing really, what do you think the cheapest Model 3 bought today in the UK (£43490) would cost a used buyer in 3 years time with say 30k miles on it?

I'm going for around £30k maybe £27k in 4 years (40k miles) as my guestimate.

I make that roughly £370 a month depreciation.

[ZesPak]

jason61c said:

In no way did an electric car stack up at all. Given my company pay me £0.45 a mile, lets say thats only 5000 miles now, thats £2.2k towards running costs.

Electric car would be £0.04 a mile, £200. given you have to pay to charge away from home, the maths on a proper luxury car just don't stack up.

I don't get this? So the company would only allow you 1/10th of the same allowance if you get an EV?

[Richard-D]

jason61c said:

I abandoned plans of an all electric car, bought a 640d gran coupe, 2018, 11k miles, £27.5k.

Now that's a nice vehicle to cover distance in.

[ZesPak]

Richard-D said:

jason61c said:

I abandoned plans of an all electric car, bought a 640d gran coupe, 2018, 11k miles, £27.5k.

Now that's a nice vehicle to cover distance in.

that is one big depreciation hit!

[jason61c]

ZesPak said:

that is one big depreciation hit!

not mine!!

[jason61c]

ZesPak said:

I don't get this? So the company would only allow you 1/10th of the same allowance if you get an EV?

No, HMRC set the rate's.

Also, given EV's seem to cost more to insure, I just can't see it making sense.

Those banging on about the model 3, there' s not that many here, they've held on amazingly well. however in 3 years time, it won't be the same.