Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Tesla are going to have a cheaper car in 3 years or something isn't it 
Was interesting that Elon drove a Model X around Berlin recently and only then, 15 years after making cars,did he realized that many people do want a small ID.3 type car.As he found the X a nightmare to park.
California bubble.
Also for anyone who hasn't heard, he is moving home, from Cali to Texas. So nearer to SpaceX too.
Was interesting that Elon drove a Model X around Berlin recently and only then, 15 years after making cars,did he realized that many people do want a small ID.3 type car.As he found the X a nightmare to park.
California bubble.
Also for anyone who hasn't heard, he is moving home, from Cali to Texas. So nearer to SpaceX too.
Tuna said:
The point is with phones people move on after a year. The hardware is disposable. That's not what Tesla (or any other manufacturer) is offering.
After one year, what "bigger, better" Model 3 does Tesla have to offer a driver? It has one model, that will be facelifted slightly after three years.
Meanwhile, VW, Ford, Toyota and all the others will have new models out, with new shiny.
You're not making a great case against the phone analogy though...After one year, what "bigger, better" Model 3 does Tesla have to offer a driver? It has one model, that will be facelifted slightly after three years.
Meanwhile, VW, Ford, Toyota and all the others will have new models out, with new shiny.
Edited by ZesPak on Monday 14th December 22:21
Tuna said:
ZesPak said:
You're not making a great case against the phone analogy though...
You're suggesting people will dispose of their Teslas after a year? But I thought people kept them forever? Which is it?Forever is a long time and the model S has been out for 8 years.
So just as with phones, people hang on to them for a long time and others want the newest if a new model comes out, or following the refresh cycle of their favorite manufacturer.
Edited by ZesPak on Monday 14th December 22:36
jamoor said:
Yeah it’s the old tech vs luxury thing.
Look what happened to vertu
Well someone thinks that there is a premium for Vertu phones:Look what happened to vertu
https://www.ebay.com/itm/VERTU-SIGNATURE-S-LIMITED...
Hehe
hyphen said:
Tesla are going to have a cheaper car in 3 years or something isn't it
If you want a 'cheap" EV a iPace is what you should be looking at. £64k starting price brand new, 2019 cars with barely 10k on the clock are neen advertised for £42k, with the numbers available I suspect a cash offer of below £40k will seal the deal.37% depreciation in 12 months, no one does depreciation better than Jaguar!
Tuna said:
Last year's iPhone is this year's castoff. Think what that would do to depreciation, if we treated cars like that.
Forget depreciation think of the actual environmental impacts of treating cars like disposable items.But actually alot of the "urge' to change in consumer electronics is driven by marketing not need.
My home laptop is a 2013 MacBookPro which thanks to Stadia can run Cyberpunk 2077 with no issues. We also have a 2013 iPad which is working fine. My current phone is a Samsung S9 and I feel no need to replace it anytime soon, and our TV in the sitting room is a 2011 Panasonic Plasma which still work fine, as does a 2006 Sony LCD TV which is now in the kitchen.
Our 2017 Tesla did require a CPU swap to enable it to run the latest software features been released, but a CPU swap is much more sustainable than doing a car swap. If Tesla (or anyone) starts offering retrofit battery packs in the future I see little reason to swap out the car.
There is nothing wrong with the sustainability of modern consumer electronics. But we have built an economy that requires people buy new stuff constantly rather than keep things working.
I recon I can get 10 years use out of my laptop, the phone I might change in another 2 years, the car who knows it'll be kept till at least 8 years. But time does fly by and 2025 doesn't seem that far away, I suspect this thread will still be going
.Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 15th December 06:32
harshI take it you didn't own the first iPhone, or the one of the early iPods! Was a triumph of ingenuity but the finish was lacking.
Part of the 'bet' is on Musk inventing new stuff. iPhone was years away, when Jobs was building Pixar under similar duress. These entrepreneurs that build multiple global scale brands are once in a generation and Musk is probably one of them. I can see why P/E ratios go out of the window.
But of course, there is every chance this goes pop in a very messy way.
Part of the 'bet' is on Musk inventing new stuff. iPhone was years away, when Jobs was building Pixar under similar duress. These entrepreneurs that build multiple global scale brands are once in a generation and Musk is probably one of them. I can see why P/E ratios go out of the window.
But of course, there is every chance this goes pop in a very messy way.
gangzoom said:
Forget depreciation think of the actual environmental impacts of treating cars like disposable items.
But actually alot of the "urge' to change in consumer electronics is driven by marketing not need.
My home laptop is a 2013 MacBookPro which thanks to Stadia can run Cyberpunk 2077 with no issues. We also have a 2013 iPad which is working fine. My current phone is a Samsung S9 and I feel no need to replace it anytime soon, and our TV in the sitting room is a 2011 Panasonic Plasma which still work fine, as does a 2006 Sony LCD TV which is now in the kitchen.
Our 2017 Tesla did require a CPU swap to enable it to run the latest software features been released, but a CPU swap is much more sustainable than doing a car swap. If Tesla (or anyone) starts offering retrofit battery packs in the future I see little reason to swap out the car.
There is nothing wrong with the sustainability of modern consumer electronics. But we have built an economy that requires people buy new stuff constantly rather than keep things working.
I recon I can get 10 years use out of my laptop, the phone I might change in another 2 years, the car who knows it'll be kept till at least 8 years. But time does fly by and 2025 doesn't seem that far away, I suspect this thread will still be going.
Absolutely agreed. But actually alot of the "urge' to change in consumer electronics is driven by marketing not need.
My home laptop is a 2013 MacBookPro which thanks to Stadia can run Cyberpunk 2077 with no issues. We also have a 2013 iPad which is working fine. My current phone is a Samsung S9 and I feel no need to replace it anytime soon, and our TV in the sitting room is a 2011 Panasonic Plasma which still work fine, as does a 2006 Sony LCD TV which is now in the kitchen.
Our 2017 Tesla did require a CPU swap to enable it to run the latest software features been released, but a CPU swap is much more sustainable than doing a car swap. If Tesla (or anyone) starts offering retrofit battery packs in the future I see little reason to swap out the car.
There is nothing wrong with the sustainability of modern consumer electronics. But we have built an economy that requires people buy new stuff constantly rather than keep things working.
I recon I can get 10 years use out of my laptop, the phone I might change in another 2 years, the car who knows it'll be kept till at least 8 years. But time does fly by and 2025 doesn't seem that far away, I suspect this thread will still be going
.Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 15th December 06:32
My problem lies with people who think Tesla's business is "just like" the mobile phone business, because they want Musk to be the new Steve Jobs.
It just doesn't hold water outside the core group of fanatics who obsess about such things - the majority of the car buying public just don't think that way.
gangzoom said:
Forget depreciation think of the actual environmental impacts of treating cars like disposable items.
But actually alot of the "urge' to change in consumer electronics is driven by marketing not need.
My home laptop is a 2013 MacBookPro which thanks to Stadia can run Cyberpunk 2077 with no issues. We also have a 2013 iPad which is working fine. My current phone is a Samsung S9 and I feel no need to replace it anytime soon, and our TV in the sitting room is a 2011 Panasonic Plasma which still work fine, as does a 2006 Sony LCD TV which is now in the kitchen.
Our 2017 Tesla did require a CPU swap to enable it to run the latest software features been released, but a CPU swap is much more sustainable than doing a car swap. If Tesla (or anyone) starts offering retrofit battery packs in the future I see little reason to swap out the car.
There is nothing wrong with the sustainability of modern consumer electronics. But we have built an economy that requires people buy new stuff constantly rather than keep things working.
I recon I can get 10 years use out of my laptop, the phone I might change in another 2 years, the car who knows it'll be kept till at least 8 years. But time does fly by and 2025 doesn't seem that far away, I suspect this thread will still be going.
The problem with keeping things working vs new stuff is that tech moves forward.But actually alot of the "urge' to change in consumer electronics is driven by marketing not need.
My home laptop is a 2013 MacBookPro which thanks to Stadia can run Cyberpunk 2077 with no issues. We also have a 2013 iPad which is working fine. My current phone is a Samsung S9 and I feel no need to replace it anytime soon, and our TV in the sitting room is a 2011 Panasonic Plasma which still work fine, as does a 2006 Sony LCD TV which is now in the kitchen.
Our 2017 Tesla did require a CPU swap to enable it to run the latest software features been released, but a CPU swap is much more sustainable than doing a car swap. If Tesla (or anyone) starts offering retrofit battery packs in the future I see little reason to swap out the car.
There is nothing wrong with the sustainability of modern consumer electronics. But we have built an economy that requires people buy new stuff constantly rather than keep things working.
I recon I can get 10 years use out of my laptop, the phone I might change in another 2 years, the car who knows it'll be kept till at least 8 years. But time does fly by and 2025 doesn't seem that far away, I suspect this thread will still be going
.Edited by gangzoom on Tuesday 15th December 06:32
Imagine if we were all still driving cars from the 70s without seatbelts, crumple zones and leaded petrol.
Tuna said:
Absolutely agreed.
My problem lies with people who think Tesla's business is "just like" the mobile phone business, because they want Musk to be the new Steve Jobs.
It just doesn't hold water outside the core group of fanatics who obsess about such things - the majority of the car buying public just don't think that way.
Apart from the fact that both were in charge of a company that revolutionised an industry of course.My problem lies with people who think Tesla's business is "just like" the mobile phone business, because they want Musk to be the new Steve Jobs.
It just doesn't hold water outside the core group of fanatics who obsess about such things - the majority of the car buying public just don't think that way.
gangzoom said:
hyphen said:
Tesla are going to have a cheaper car in 3 years or something isn't it
If you want a 'cheap" EV a iPace is what you should be looking at. £64k starting price brand new, 2019 cars with barely 10k on the clock are neen advertised for £42k, with the numbers available I suspect a cash offer of below £40k will seal the deal.37% depreciation in 12 months, no one does depreciation better than Jaguar!
It drops from £60k to less than £10k in 3 years. I suspect there won't be any 3 year old 10k iPaces.
98elise said:
The Toyota Mirai can beat that
It drops from £60k to less than £10k in 3 years. I suspect there won't be any 3 year old 10k iPaces.
Judging by the other thread on here you will need to bring a trailer to tow it home with you It drops from £60k to less than £10k in 3 years. I suspect there won't be any 3 year old 10k iPaces.
.....£10K is cheap for a 3 year old car that use to cost £60K, but £10K is still ALOT to pay for a 2 ton scrap/paper weight to sit on you're driveway!! Hope no one here actually got fooled by Toyota to buy one of those with their own cash!!jamoor said:
The problem with keeping things working vs new stuff is that tech moves forward.
Imagine if we were all still driving cars from the 70s without seatbelts, crumple zones and leaded petrol.
So Teslas will avoid depreciation, but tech moves forward? Imagine if we were all still driving cars from the 70s without seatbelts, crumple zones and leaded petrol.
Could it be that low supply during the emergence of a new market has temporarily hidden the inevitable effects of gravity on prices?
Unfortunately for Musk, the difference between what he's delivering and the what the dinosaur mainstream manufacturers are delivering is less and less important to the average buyer.
ZesPak said:
Jobs AND Woz.
Keep up at the back.
Interestingly, at least some of Musk's success might be attributed to the American desire for a hero figure - and he's happily filled the "Henry Ford" shaped hole in the American psyche right when they're feeling the least confident in their industrial might.
Watching the uncritical reporting of things like Hyperloop really hits home that these guys are desperate for a bit of mythology and will overlook huge problems in the whole operation just to keep the faith.
Tuna said:
So Teslas will avoid depreciation, but tech moves forward?
Could it be that low supply during the emergence of a new market has temporarily hidden the inevitable effects of gravity on prices?
Unfortunately for Musk, the difference between what he's delivering and the what the dinosaur mainstream manufacturers are delivering is less and less important to the average buyer.
Well that’s because the dinosaurs are rushing to copy him so the difference is less. Could it be that low supply during the emergence of a new market has temporarily hidden the inevitable effects of gravity on prices?
Unfortunately for Musk, the difference between what he's delivering and the what the dinosaur mainstream manufacturers are delivering is less and less important to the average buyer.
I think Tesla a bit like Apple will lead the new industry.
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