Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Tuna said:
Lol, Musk doesn't have a Woz. Or a Jony Ive. Seeing the Cybertruck, he really needs a Jony Ive. 
Interestingly, at least some of Musk's success might be attributed to the American desire for a hero figure - and he's happily filled the "Henry Ford" shaped hole in the American psyche right when they're feeling the least confident in their industrial might.
Watching the uncritical reporting of things like Hyperloop really hits home that these guys are desperate for a bit of mythology and will overlook huge problems in the whole operation just to keep the faith.
I don’t think nasa are signing contracts with space x or people are buying Tesla’s because there’s a hero at the helm.Interestingly, at least some of Musk's success might be attributed to the American desire for a hero figure - and he's happily filled the "Henry Ford" shaped hole in the American psyche right when they're feeling the least confident in their industrial might.
Watching the uncritical reporting of things like Hyperloop really hits home that these guys are desperate for a bit of mythology and will overlook huge problems in the whole operation just to keep the faith.
I think what Musk is doing, and where the industry may be heading, is making the car so durable, that the margin is in the lifetime cost to own.
The Japanese realised this, when they changed their business mode from a domestic market, short lifespan, planned obsolescence to a longer operating life, with durable running gear and better bodies.
Musk is at the proof of concept stage. He's built a manufacturing base with a decent product, which operates on a tech based platform compared to his established competition. He can then roll out more and more X,Y,S and 3 and as he does so, move to a modular product. So, you replace the battery pack every 8 years at a relatively modest cost, but retain the car, the tech of which is constantly being upgraded over the air.
It's a sort of corporate Ship of Theseus - it's what the military does very well.
Castrol for a knave said:
I think what Musk is doing, and where the industry may be heading, is making the car so durable, that the margin is in the lifetime cost to own.
The Japanese realised this, when they changed their business mode from a domestic market, short lifespan, planned obsolescence to a longer operating life, with durable running gear and better bodies.
Musk is at the proof of concept stage. He's built a manufacturing base with a decent product, which operates on a tech based platform compared to his established competition. He can then roll out more and more X,Y,S and 3 and as he does so, move to a modular product. So, you replace the battery pack every 8 years at a relatively modest cost, but retain the car, the tech of which is constantly being upgraded over the air.
It's a sort of corporate Ship of Theseus - it's what the military does very well.
They need to extremely durable if they will be robotaxis.The Japanese realised this, when they changed their business mode from a domestic market, short lifespan, planned obsolescence to a longer operating life, with durable running gear and better bodies.
Musk is at the proof of concept stage. He's built a manufacturing base with a decent product, which operates on a tech based platform compared to his established competition. He can then roll out more and more X,Y,S and 3 and as he does so, move to a modular product. So, you replace the battery pack every 8 years at a relatively modest cost, but retain the car, the tech of which is constantly being upgraded over the air.
It's a sort of corporate Ship of Theseus - it's what the military does very well.
I wouldn’t want a petrol car doing 45k a year.
Its an oxymoron to talk about product longevity and high tech
The cars they build do not age well without significant investment, People with 3 year old cars are paying nearly 3k to have the infotainment screen updated if you want to keep the radio. Cars younger than that are having major hardware refits to make FSD autopilot work. Technology doesn't age well as Moores law points out.
So which is it? The Tesla that you keep for 10 years even though it will be showing its age within a year or two (heat pumps, bigger batteries, MCU uplifts, No doubt 4g or startlink soon, AP hardware 3.2 is rumoured, the headlights have been changed) or is it really no different to every other car and that after a period of time, people simply lust after a better version, be that BMW i3 60ah owners wanting a 94ah model, a Tesla 85D owner wanting a facelift MS (ie not new cars, just better than they have) through to those wanting the latest technology?
The 10 year argument feel predicated on the fact every single issue Tesla have had in the past is put down to a learning/start-up teething problems and once fixed its fixed forever and soon the car will be complete. I simply don't believe that. What makes us think a 75kwh battery we now charge at 250kw is going to fair any better than a 80kwh battery charging faired charging at 120kw?
The cars they build do not age well without significant investment, People with 3 year old cars are paying nearly 3k to have the infotainment screen updated if you want to keep the radio. Cars younger than that are having major hardware refits to make FSD autopilot work. Technology doesn't age well as Moores law points out.
So which is it? The Tesla that you keep for 10 years even though it will be showing its age within a year or two (heat pumps, bigger batteries, MCU uplifts, No doubt 4g or startlink soon, AP hardware 3.2 is rumoured, the headlights have been changed) or is it really no different to every other car and that after a period of time, people simply lust after a better version, be that BMW i3 60ah owners wanting a 94ah model, a Tesla 85D owner wanting a facelift MS (ie not new cars, just better than they have) through to those wanting the latest technology?
The 10 year argument feel predicated on the fact every single issue Tesla have had in the past is put down to a learning/start-up teething problems and once fixed its fixed forever and soon the car will be complete. I simply don't believe that. What makes us think a 75kwh battery we now charge at 250kw is going to fair any better than a 80kwh battery charging faired charging at 120kw?
Heres Johnny said:
Its an oxymoron to talk about product longevity and high tech
The cars they build do not age well without significant investment, People with 3 year old cars are paying nearly 3k to have the infotainment screen updated if you want to keep the radio. Cars younger than that are having major hardware refits to make FSD autopilot work. Technology doesn't age well as Moores law points out.
So which is it? The Tesla that you keep for 10 years even though it will be showing its age within a year or two (heat pumps, bigger batteries, MCU uplifts, No doubt 4g or startlink soon, AP hardware 3.2 is rumoured, the headlights have been changed) or is it really no different to every other car and that after a period of time, people simply lust after a better version, be that BMW i3 60ah owners wanting a 94ah model, a Tesla 85D owner wanting a facelift MS (ie not new cars, just better than they have) through to those wanting the latest technology?
The 10 year argument feel predicated on the fact every single issue Tesla have had in the past is put down to a learning/start-up teething problems and once fixed its fixed forever and soon the car will be complete. I simply don't believe that. What makes us think a 75kwh battery we now charge at 250kw is going to fair any better than a 80kwh battery charging faired charging at 120kw?
3k sounds like a better deal for an upgrade than buying a new car no?The cars they build do not age well without significant investment, People with 3 year old cars are paying nearly 3k to have the infotainment screen updated if you want to keep the radio. Cars younger than that are having major hardware refits to make FSD autopilot work. Technology doesn't age well as Moores law points out.
So which is it? The Tesla that you keep for 10 years even though it will be showing its age within a year or two (heat pumps, bigger batteries, MCU uplifts, No doubt 4g or startlink soon, AP hardware 3.2 is rumoured, the headlights have been changed) or is it really no different to every other car and that after a period of time, people simply lust after a better version, be that BMW i3 60ah owners wanting a 94ah model, a Tesla 85D owner wanting a facelift MS (ie not new cars, just better than they have) through to those wanting the latest technology?
The 10 year argument feel predicated on the fact every single issue Tesla have had in the past is put down to a learning/start-up teething problems and once fixed its fixed forever and soon the car will be complete. I simply don't believe that. What makes us think a 75kwh battery we now charge at 250kw is going to fair any better than a 80kwh battery charging faired charging at 120kw?
3k is what 10% of the cars value? Imagine if you could £100 and put the latest processor in your old iPhone.
Whatever it is it’s better than what came before.
jamoor said:
3k sounds like a better deal for an upgrade than buying a new car no?
No, because you still have a car with old seats, old paint, old styling and a imperceptibly better stereo. The lads down at Halfords want their business model back. 
Watching the flat out contradictions in your arguments is hilarious. It's the latest tech that will last forever, except you'll upgrade it every couple of years, except it won't loose money (what do you think an upgrade cost is?), except none of the other companies can offer this....
Tuna said:
No, because you still have a car with old seats, old paint, old styling and a imperceptibly better stereo. The lads down at Halfords want their business model back.
Watching the flat out contradictions in your arguments is hilarious. It's the latest tech that will last forever, except you'll upgrade it every couple of years, except it won't loose money (what do you think an upgrade cost is?), except none of the other companies can offer this....
He also claims that EVs charging speed isn't an issue as you top them up daily but then claims that people will only need to top them up every week or so (so parking in the street is fine). Watching the flat out contradictions in your arguments is hilarious. It's the latest tech that will last forever, except you'll upgrade it every couple of years, except it won't loose money (what do you think an upgrade cost is?), except none of the other companies can offer this....
The claims of caring for the environment are also amusing from people who's consumption drives production of new vehicles far faster than anyone needs.
Richard-D said:
The claims of caring for the environment are also amusing from people who's consumption drives production of new vehicles far faster than anyone needs.
Nice spin you put on all these things, as long as they fit your narrative, right?
How is one related to the other? Where are these "environmentalists" that are forcing consumption?
All I've seen is legislation for new vehicles built, not for vehicles already on the road?
Tuna said:
No, because you still have a car with old seats, old paint, old styling and a imperceptibly better stereo. The lads down at Halfords want their business model back.
Watching the flat out contradictions in your arguments is hilarious. It's the latest tech that will last forever, except you'll upgrade it every couple of years, except it won't loose money (what do you think an upgrade cost is?), except none of the other companies can offer this....
So does James buy a new one with zero miles or a used upgraded one? Don’t forget previously the used one wouldn’t have been a consideration.Watching the flat out contradictions in your arguments is hilarious. It's the latest tech that will last forever, except you'll upgrade it every couple of years, except it won't loose money (what do you think an upgrade cost is?), except none of the other companies can offer this....
What do you think that does for residuals?
Secondly go and take a look at depreciation rates in countries where labour is cheap...
As I said first class Googlers with little experience
jamoor said:
So does James buy a new one with zero miles or a used upgraded one? Don’t forget previously the used one wouldn’t have been a consideration.
A used upgraded one thats had 3k spent of the MCU upgrade, will have paid 8K for the none existent FSD to have the computer upgraded so they can see traffic cones on the screen and yet it still won't have the motors to allow 1 foot braking, won't have the power or acceleration, won't have the same range, doesn't charge as fast, and the seats and suspension will creak?Ask your question which is essentially "do I buy a used MS or a new M3 with my 45k?" and you will find 9 out of 10 Tesla owners will tell you to buy the new M3 because they say the tech is better.
Heres Johnny said:
A used upgraded one thats had 3k spent of the MCU upgrade, will have paid 8K for the none existent FSD to have the computer upgraded so they can see traffic cones on the screen and yet it still won't have the motors to allow 1 foot braking, won't have the power or acceleration, won't have the same range, doesn't charge as fast, and the seats and suspension will creak?
Ask your question which is essentially "do I buy a used MS or a new M3 with my 45k?" and you will find 9 out of 10 Tesla owners will tell you to buy the new M3 because they say the tech is better.
That’s not a particularly fair comparison, a better one would be a 2019 vs 2021 model 3...Ask your question which is essentially "do I buy a used MS or a new M3 with my 45k?" and you will find 9 out of 10 Tesla owners will tell you to buy the new M3 because they say the tech is better.
And not for the same price...
Tuna said:
Watching the uncritical reporting of things like Hyperloop really hits home that these guys are desperate for a bit of mythology and will overlook huge problems in the whole operation just to keep the faith.
We, the great unwashed masses, want to see success. Faceless corporations arent as interesting as some flawed figurehead who spouts about stuff and isnt afraid to make decisions. For a lot of people, watching the rich and famous is interesting, and Musk ticks a couple of those boxes there. So yeah, we want to keep the faith and we want to see things succeed, even if they are completely ludicrous and dont even pass the most basic of the 'sniff test'. Hyperloop is one of those things. The vision of someone trying to do something different with slick marketing and insane numbers is appealing. But even a cursory thought on the practicality of the whole thing makes it laughable. I agree - we are at a point that we are pushed more and more bizarre things to support the previously overambitious claims. Its like a giant ponzi scheme - gotta keep the money flowing / fans raving with even more outlandish claims to support the previous ones...... but if history has anything to teach us, there will be a correction at some point.
jamoor said:
What do you think that does for residuals?
You do understand that if you buy an M3 for (say) 45K, then spend 15K keeping it "current", your effective depreciation if you sell it for 40K is not just 5K?You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.
One born every minute.
Tuna said:
You do understand that if you buy an M3 for (say) 45K, then spend 15K keeping it "current", your effective depreciation if you sell it for 40K is not just 5K?
You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.
One born every minute.
What if you don’t keep it current, does it depreciate more?You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.
One born every minute.
Let’s pretend keeping it current means replacing the ecu for 5k a time.
Tuna said:
You do understand that if you buy an M3 for (say) 45K, then spend 15K keeping it "current", your effective depreciation if you sell it for 40K is not just 5K?
You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.
One born every minute.
Ok, what if there was no upgradeability?You've just spent 20K to keep a saloon on the road for a couple of years.
One born every minute.
Imagine, a car coming from a manufacturer and having to run it's entire life with the headunit that was basically outdated the moment they put it in the car the first day. Would this car better keep it's value?
ZesPak said:
Ok, what if there was no upgradeability?
Imagine, a car coming from a manufacturer and having to run it's entire life with the headunit that was basically outdated the moment they put it in the car the first day. Would this car better keep it's value?
I owned my MX-5 for ten years before I tried using the CD player.Imagine, a car coming from a manufacturer and having to run it's entire life with the headunit that was basically outdated the moment they put it in the car the first day. Would this car better keep it's value?
Not everyone thinks like an IT nerd.
ZesPak said:
Richard-D said:
The claims of caring for the environment are also amusing from people who's consumption drives production of new vehicles far faster than anyone needs.
Nice spin you put on all these things, as long as they fit your narrative, right?
How is one related to the other? Where are these "environmentalists" that are forcing consumption?
All I've seen is legislation for new vehicles built, not for vehicles already on the road?
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