Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)
Discussion
gangzoom said:
I wonder which one most families would go for at £45k, 4 seater Golf sized hatchback or a 7 seater SUV...
That largely depends on their needs - most five seater hatchbacks are, in reality, little better than a 4+1. I don't think it's a compromise for most families. The only time I've ever seen three people sit comfortably in a second row is in something big like an S-Max (which incidentally has three separate rear seats rather than a bench).For my own part, I'd probably find a Model Y ideal, compromises notwithstanding (don't like the centre screen, I am skeptical that any third row will be meaningfully useful, and I can't see UK deliveries anytime in the next 18 months). Of course, I'd want the good one, which is going to be £57,000 (using Elon's +10% guideline). That's definitely in I-Pace and Mach-E territory rather than E-Niro and ID.3 territory.
HalcyonRichard said:
Gross margin on Model 3 in China could be 40%
Got a source from anywhere slightly less partisan than teslarati?Great news for Tesla if it is. Now we need to discover if there really is a demand cliff looming. Traditional car manufacturers keep telling us there's no demand. I think they're wrong. I'm crying out for a decent EV and Polestar still haven't told me what I'll be paying or when I'll get a car, ten months after placing a deposit...
Witchfinder said:
Really? It's beyond you? I thought it was self evident. Allow me to explain: the reason CarWow did that test is because people care about the range of electric vehicles, and are unsure and nervous about how far they can travel in one. This uncertainty and nervousness is often referred to as "range anxiety". Does that help?
I think its actually a very good video of why for most long distance trips in the UK EVS are fine. Google says London to Newcastle is any where between 4hr40min and 6hrs40min, I don't know many people that will drive for that kind of distance without a stop.For that trip alone there are 5 SuperCharger site enroute, and a stop at any of them for a break+charge will allow any Tesla to complete that trip with no issues. Add in the increasing number of other fast chargers like Ionity long distance travel with any of those EVs in the video isn't really an issue, especially if you are not time constrained and doing 40-50mph average speeds as those in the video.
The much harder 'problem' is actually shorter but single day return trips of 200-300 miles. These trips are usually not done by families but often work/business trips which often have no destination charging, time constrained, dictated by a specific route. The number of those kind of trips rare for most people, and if you have two cars in the family the EV can easily become the main family car covering 99% of trips.
Look at another way, instead of focusing on max range, the worst performer was the EQC - bailing out Wetherby. Even been generous and say you live literally next to the A406/M1 junction at BrentCross so as less traffic as possible, leaving at 10am post rush hour, Google says at best its a 3hr slog going up close to 4hrs at times.....How many families can sit in a car for 3hrs non stop let alone close to 4hrs??
If you go onto Zap Map and just filter for DC rapid charger there are literally dozens of options for that route regardless of which of those EVs you take.
https://www.zap-map.com/live/
For some situations EVs still don't work and offer an inconvenience but those are nearly all work/business related situations for most people. For single distance trips, 200mile real life ranges EVs are fine already for most UK families.
gangzoom said:
I think its actually a very good video of why for most long distance trips in the UK EVS are fine. Google says London to Newcastle is any where between 4hr40min and 6hrs40min, I don't know many people that will drive for that kind of distance without a stop.
For that trip alone there are 5 SuperCharger site enroute, and a stop at any of them for a break+charge will allow any Tesla to complete that trip with no issues. Add in the increasing number of other fast chargers like Ionity long distance travel with any of those EVs in the video isn't really an issue, especially if you are not time constrained and doing 40-50mph average speeds as those in the video.
The much harder 'problem' is actually shorter but single day return trips of 200-300 miles. These trips are usually not done by families but often work/business trips which often have no destination charging, time constrained, dictated by a specific route. The number of those kind of trips rare for most people, and if you have two cars in the family the EV can easily become the main family car covering 99% of trips.
Look at another way, instead of focusing on max range, the worst performer was the EQC - bailing out Wetherby. Even been generous and say you live literally next to the A406/M1 junction at BrentCross so as less traffic as possible, leaving at 10am post rush hour, Google says at best its a 3hr slog going up close to 4hrs at times.....How many families can sit in a car for 3hrs non stop let alone close to 4hrs??
If you go onto Zap Map and just filter for DC rapid charger there are literally dozens of options for that route regardless of which of those EVs you take.
https://www.zap-map.com/live/
For some situations EVs still don't work and offer an inconvenience but those are nearly all work/business related situations for most people. For single distance trips, 200mile real life ranges EVs are fine already for most UK families.
I do a one-way trip like that twice per week most weeks. I generally don’t take a break or, if I do, if is only to visit a toilet briefly.For that trip alone there are 5 SuperCharger site enroute, and a stop at any of them for a break+charge will allow any Tesla to complete that trip with no issues. Add in the increasing number of other fast chargers like Ionity long distance travel with any of those EVs in the video isn't really an issue, especially if you are not time constrained and doing 40-50mph average speeds as those in the video.
The much harder 'problem' is actually shorter but single day return trips of 200-300 miles. These trips are usually not done by families but often work/business trips which often have no destination charging, time constrained, dictated by a specific route. The number of those kind of trips rare for most people, and if you have two cars in the family the EV can easily become the main family car covering 99% of trips.
Look at another way, instead of focusing on max range, the worst performer was the EQC - bailing out Wetherby. Even been generous and say you live literally next to the A406/M1 junction at BrentCross so as less traffic as possible, leaving at 10am post rush hour, Google says at best its a 3hr slog going up close to 4hrs at times.....How many families can sit in a car for 3hrs non stop let alone close to 4hrs??
If you go onto Zap Map and just filter for DC rapid charger there are literally dozens of options for that route regardless of which of those EVs you take.
https://www.zap-map.com/live/
For some situations EVs still don't work and offer an inconvenience but those are nearly all work/business related situations for most people. For single distance trips, 200mile real life ranges EVs are fine already for most UK families.
The Tesla is firmly on my radar. Unfortunately doing that sort of journey weekly equates to about 25k miles per year, which seems to rule out affordable lease options.
Witchfinder said:
Got a source from anywhere slightly less partisan than teslarati?
If you read the article the source is quoted. As the USA Model 3 was mentioned in the accounts as having 20% gross margin I think having a new factory and incorporating all the knowledge and techniques gained so far along with the increase in volume that it is feasible for the 40% margin.skwdenyer said:
I do a one-way trip like that twice per week most weeks. I generally don’t take a break or, if I do, if is only to visit a toilet briefly.
The Tesla is firmly on my radar. Unfortunately doing that sort of journey weekly equates to about 25k miles per year, which seems to rule out affordable lease options.
5hr+ on the road twice a week nonstop!! I feel for you, I got fed up with doing just 1hr a day each way. The Tesla is firmly on my radar. Unfortunately doing that sort of journey weekly equates to about 25k miles per year, which seems to rule out affordable lease options.
Your usage though is far from normal, but actually an EV probably would save you a substantial amount in fuel costs.
Shame Tesla stopped doing the LR RWD Model 3, as that car can probably crack 300 miles and would have cost less than the current LR AWD.
HalcyonRichard said:
Witchfinder said:
Got a source from anywhere slightly less partisan than teslarati?
If you read the article the source is quoted. As the USA Model 3 was mentioned in the accounts as having 20% gross margin I think having a new factory and incorporating all the knowledge and techniques gained so far along with the increase in volume that it is feasible for the 40% margin.So a net figure is perhaps more appropriate?
hyphen said:
Tesla owns Fremont doesn't it? So gross margin between China and USA are probably not a good comparison, as they have annual lease costs to pay to China.
So a net figure is perhaps more appropriate?
Tesla paid 973m Yuan (about $140m) for a 50 year lease on the land, financed by Chinese banks. The factory is its own.So a net figure is perhaps more appropriate?
coetzeeh said:
skwdenyer said:
Tesla paid 973m Yuan (about $140m) for a 50 year lease on the land, financed by Chinese banks. The factory is its own.
Don’t forget the US 300m a year payment to Chinese Govt from ‘23.
In the USA Tesla pay no tax, as they make no profit! But in China, the lease with the government is structured so Tesla have to pay $323 million in tax every year or they lose the land the factory is on.
So appears China wouldn't take kindly to offshoring any profits to avoid tax.
coetzeeh said:
Don’t forget the US 300m a year payment to Chinese Govt from ‘23.
They've already demo'd 3k a week production, 150k a year, at $42k each thats $6bn a year revenue potential this year with a %20+ profit margin By 2023 they will have had the model Y up and running for a couple years too and be at 500k pa with 30%+ profit margin ($21bn*0.3= $6bn profit)
$300m a year can be paid out of petty cash.
RobDickinson said:
They've already demo'd 3k a week production, 150k a year, at $42k each thats $6bn a year revenue potential this year with a %20+ profit margin
By 2023 they will have had the model Y up and running for a couple years too and be at 500k pa with 30%+ profit margin ($21bn*0.3= $6bn profit)
$300m a year can be paid out of petty cash.
Of course.By 2023 they will have had the model Y up and running for a couple years too and be at 500k pa with 30%+ profit margin ($21bn*0.3= $6bn profit)
$300m a year can be paid out of petty cash.
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