Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

coetzeeh said:

Don’t forget the US 300m a year payment to Chinese Govt from ‘23.

They've already demo'd 3k a week production, 150k a year, at $42k each thats $6bn a year revenue potential this year with a %20+ profit margin

By 2023 they will have had the model Y up and running for a couple years too and be at 500k pa with 30%+ profit margin ($21bn*0.3= $6bn profit)


$300m a year can be paid out of petty cash.

They need to find this petty cash every year, not just one or two...

Won't the Chinese EV brands have infiltrated the factory and copied pretty much everything in a month? Will the Tesla badge carry weight?

iPhone for example is doing well, but Huwai last year had stupendous growth and now has around half the Chinese market for itself.

This indicates that a foreign badge, especially when the product is made domestically, may not hold out as the locals offer flagship alternatives cheaper.

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 15th January 20:16

Edited by hyphen on Wednesday 15th January 20:19

[coetzeeh]

Negative trend shown in US Tesla sales:.

https://insideevs.com/news/392372/us-tesla-sales-g...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/01/14...

[RobDickinson]

lol

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

lol

lol and lol some more.

[RobDickinson]

all that proves is they could sell twice as many model 3's in USA than they can allocate from current production.

[Tuna]

RobDickinson said:

all that proves is they could sell twice as many model 3's in USA than they can allocate from current production.

So technically... they can't sell twice as many model 3's because they can't make them.

I could sell luxury yachts... but I can't actually make luxury yachts. Wanna buy shares in my company?

[RobDickinson]

love the mental gymnastics in this thread

do you have 2 yatch factories with a 3rd started?

[jamoor]

The cars are actually remarkably simple yet sold at the same price as their much more complex counterparts.

If you look at the model 3 interior, there's basically nothing to it compared to a 3 series or similar.

[RobDickinson]

Yep vast chunk of the cost is technology which gets cheaper to make very quickly, easily follows wrights law.

[HalcyonRichard]

Interesting. But gross margin is relateds to production cost - which is declining for Tesla as production increases and selling cost which looks like it is not declining at such a rapid rate. So gross margin will increase for Tesla until other companies start selling similar featured cars at a lower cost.

[jamoor]

There is another thing.

If the future is electric cars, Tesla by far has the most experience assuming experience is what counts.

[hyphen]

jamoor said:

There is another thing.

If the future is electric cars, Tesla by far has the most experience assuming experience is what counts.

Do they?

Do Renault nissan not have the equivalent when it comes to production. Toyota won't be far behind.

And then companies like Integrals Powertrain, that EV company that almost killed Hammond and so on.

Plus Tesla staff can be lured away if pay packet is right.

[RobDickinson]

Toyota cant even figure out how to fix a fuel pump lol

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/14/business/toyota-fuel...

[jamoor]

hyphen said:

jamoor said:

There is another thing.

If the future is electric cars, Tesla by far has the most experience assuming experience is what counts.

Do they?

Do Renault nissan not have the equivalent when it comes to production. Toyota won't be far behind.

And then companies like Integrals Powertrain, that EV company that almost killed Hammond and so on.

Plus Tesla staff can be lured away if pay packet is right.

If you look at cars on the road, I'm sure they have the most out of any of them.

[Gojira]

RobDickinson said:

Toyota cant even figure out how to fix a fuel pump lol

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/14/business/toyota-fuel...

What, like Tesla can't make auto wipers work...

Even Vauxhall could do that as far back as 2002!

[SWoll]

jamoor said:

The cars are actually remarkably simple yet sold at the same price as their much more complex counterparts.

If you look at the model 3 interior, there's basically nothing to it compared to a 3 series or similar.

You mean it's not full of buttons essentially?

Far better equipped as standard than any 3 series.

[hyphen]

RobDickinson said:

Toyota cant even figure out how to fix a fuel pump lol

https://us.cnn.com/2020/01/14/business/toyota-fuel...

Do they even make the pump themselves? Won't it be 3rd party.

[hyphen]

jamoor said:

hyphen said:

jamoor said:

There is another thing.

If the future is electric cars, Tesla by far has the most experience assuming experience is what counts.

Do they?

Do Renault nissan not have the equivalent when it comes to production. Toyota won't be far behind.

And then companies like Integrals Powertrain, that EV company that almost killed Hammond and so on.

Plus Tesla staff can be lured away if pay packet is right.

If you look at cars on the road, I'm sure they have the most out of any of them.

How does that matter?

If there are 1 million Tesla's and 800k Leafs and Zoe's. What difference does that make.

[jamoor]

hyphen said:

jamoor said:

hyphen said:

jamoor said:

There is another thing.

If the future is electric cars, Tesla by far has the most experience assuming experience is what counts.

Do they?

Do Renault nissan not have the equivalent when it comes to production. Toyota won't be far behind.

And then companies like Integrals Powertrain, that EV company that almost killed Hammond and so on.

Plus Tesla staff can be lured away if pay packet is right.

If you look at cars on the road, I'm sure they have the most out of any of them.

How does that matter?

If there are 1 million Tesla's and 800k Leafs and Zoe's. What difference does that make.

Usually the more you do something the better you become at doing it.

[jjwilde]

Yeah, we and lots of other people saw this years ago, that's why we invested. So when I look at the share price it's just hilarious. Honestly it's like a lottery win. Good times.