Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Smiljan]

Zcd1 said:

Incorrect - battery chemistry and cooling have been changed to improve charge speed and thermal control.

Do you have a good source you could share for that?

[Zcd1]

Smiljan said:

Do you have a good source you could share for that?

https://electrek.co/2021/01/28/tesla-new-model-s-x-refresh-12-new-features-yet-to-be-announced/

[Smiljan]

I said a good source. Thanks anyway, it maybe true but Electrek just scour twitter and create news stories from that.

They may have it correct but I'd rather see it from somewhere a little more official.

[Smiljan]

This is all Tesla say about the refresh S battery. No mention of different chemistry.



Not much detail in that. As I said before though, lots of small changes here and there on the refresh. Not just a stupid steering wheel and some games.

[Mikehig]

ZesPak: "I knew the TMS was slippery, didn't realize it was THAT slippery. Just looked it up, the 2012 one was 0.24 Cd, which apparently matched the Prius even though it has a larger frontal area."

I'm not sure that the Cd figure tells the whole story. There's another measure (CdA?) which indicates how much drag the car actually generates and reflects the frontal area so a bigger car will suffer more drag than a smaller one even if they have the same Cd figure.
Maybe someone more knowledgeable could confirm or correct?

[Heres Johnny]

Smiljan said:

This is all Tesla say about the refresh S battery. No mention of different chemistry.



Not much detail in that. As I said before though, lots of small changes here and there on the refresh. Not just a stupid steering wheel and some games.

Same form factor which is what I was referring to, not the larger cells or structural pack they’ve been talking about. And you can read that press point as the battery pack has been completely redesigned over 8 years. At the end of the day, the range is not better, worse on the MX, 250kw charging has been in the US since the LR+, not in the UK because of the adapter. Tesla are constantly updating the battery but it’s the form factor that’s been the real limit and that’s appears to be the same until Plaid+

[Smiljan]

I wonder if they’ll add a CCS port on the Euro spec cars, I remember reading before the body shell design prevented it before hence the adaptor but maybe something for this refresh?

[ZesPak]

Smiljan said:

I wonder if they’ll add a CCS port on the Euro spec cars, I remember reading before the body shell design prevented it before hence the adaptor but maybe something for this refresh?

... they have to, don't they? My 2019 does CCS charging with a relatively small adaptor.

[Smiljan]

I'm not sure, I asked the service centre a few days ago and they said it'd just be an adapter still but who knows.

[ZesPak]

Mikehig said:

ZesPak: "I knew the TMS was slippery, didn't realize it was THAT slippery. Just looked it up, the 2012 one was 0.24 Cd, which apparently matched the Prius even though it has a larger frontal area."

I'm not sure that the Cd figure tells the whole story. There's another measure (CdA?) which indicates how much drag the car actually generates and reflects the frontal area so a bigger car will suffer more drag than a smaller one even if they have the same Cd figure.
Maybe someone more knowledgeable could confirm or correct?

I stand corrected! Seems like you're right.

[Order66]

You can't unsee it.

[off_again]

ZesPak said:

I know you like to have a dig at Tesla, and for all they claim and promise it's not hard to pick a target, but you do know that they ARE the safest cars in the world right? I'm not even sure they WANT to be, it's a byproduct of the design more than anything.

Broken record here - there is a byproduct aspect to the safety of Tesla's, but equally a lot of design goes into actually making them good. Its proven across their range, but with all of the effort and time put in (cost), yet they never call it out. I guess they dont think its important, but it is. Just seems to be a miss from my view. If you have a product that is good, class leading in fact, why the hell dont you call it out?

[Clive Milk]

I have been on the financial thread today discussing the merits of bubble share prices in relation to short selling and mentioned Tesla as a stock that has been a bubble over a longer time. Forgetting that it also reminded me of something that was on ars technica

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/01/waymo-ceo-tes...

Which got me thinking, when was FSD first sold as an extra by Tesla and when it is going to be available? As we know people only have a certain span of ownership of a car, in the past it could be many years, but now perhaps 3 or so.

As a follow up, 2 more questions:-

When is the Roadster sportscar going to be released and also what is this at the bottom of the list :-



it was not there in the last Q3 report




PS As an aside, and on a more car orientated view, Tesla spent a lot of time and effort at the Nurburgring to get the lap record by adding aero/ chassis/ braking parts but the Plaid vehicle just seems to be to please the straight line drag merchants. Have they changed to a more US market focused selling drive for this sedan?

[Heres Johnny]

FSD was first sold in very late 2016, I’d say 2017 realistically. The average length of car ownership in the uk is 4 years. Those early buyers have therefore not seen any feature although may have had the hardware upgraded.

Musk has promised for the 3rd year running it will be this year. What that means of course is anybody’s guess, capable of long periods of driving with an mind on attentive driver ready to step in or legally picking you up from the pub as a true, approved, insured level 4 or 5 autonomous car?

Under dev, prob the new small car Musk has mentioned.

[LG9k]

ZesPak said:

So... Similar to the 2012 model S with a slightly smaller frontal area? Impressive but how does that disprove my statement?

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 28th January 16:06

I think you misunderstand me. I'm not trying to disprove anything. Just saying that you don't need to make a small car to have low drag. Both Tesla and Mercedes have shown that.

[jjwilde]

Clive Milk said:

As a follow up, 2 more questions:-

When is the Roadster sportscar going to be released and also what is this at the bottom of the list :-

2021/22

It's their smaller car they are developing in China. Probably for that market first.

[gangzoom]

Greggsybabe said:

They lost $722 per car sold (as an average) meaning that before the enviro credits were factored in they were, yet again, at a $130m loss on the quarter.

Is this ture? And if so why?

Is this why Tesla are reluctant to price their cars at a more competitive figure - Model S now more expensive than a Taycan, and a 'family' friendly Y is BMW M car money?

Am sure back in 2015/16 Tesla was claiming margins of 20%+ on the S. Assuming battery prices have fallen, on going production efficiency how can their margins have disappeared? Or was it all a lie to start off with?

Though MG is shifting EVs at well sub £25k, so production costs are now lower, and the 3 is a noddy car to build with no fancy stuff to put together. So where has all the margins gone?

[Burwood]

gangzoom said:

Greggsybabe said:

They lost $722 per car sold (as an average) meaning that before the enviro credits were factored in they were, yet again, at a $130m loss on the quarter.

Is this ture? And if so why?

Is this why Tesla are reluctant to price their cars at a more competitive figure - Model S now more expensive than a Taycan, and a 'family' friendly Y is BMW M car money?

Am sure back in 2015/16 Tesla was claiming margins of 20%+ on the S. Assuming battery prices have fallen, on going production efficiency how can their margins have disappeared? Or was it all a lie to start off with?

Though MG is shifting EVs at well sub £25k, so production costs are now lower, and the 3 is a noddy car to build with no fancy stuff to put together. So where has all the margins gone?

Tesla gave 1.7B in stock to staff. I'd say that's the big one! I always chuckle at 'Non-GAAP' earnings. It's earnings without all the costs they don't really want to tell you about. And the stock compensation is only going to get bigger. Wait until the credits run dry, it will be back to losing a billion. It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla acquired a profitable business so it can paint over the cracks.

I had a quick look on these stock sales. All of which are paid for my shareholders. remember the new chairwoman, an Australian CPA. In 12 months she has cashed in $115M. That's just her in 1 year. And people ask wtf is wrong with the system.

Edited by Burwood on Friday 29th January 11:31

[Lim]

gangzoom said:

Greggsybabe said:

They lost $722 per car sold (as an average) meaning that before the enviro credits were factored in they were, yet again, at a $130m loss on the quarter.

Is this ture? And if so why?

Is this why Tesla are reluctant to price their cars at a more competitive figure - Model S now more expensive than a Taycan, and a 'family' friendly Y is BMW M car money?

Am sure back in 2015/16 Tesla was claiming margins of 20%+ on the S. Assuming battery prices have fallen, on going production efficiency how can their margins have disappeared? Or was it all a lie to start off with?

Though MG is shifting EVs at well sub £25k, so production costs are now lower, and the 3 is a noddy car to build with no fancy stuff to put together. So where has all the margins gone?

My very lay understanding is that Tesla aim to be cash flow neutral and spank most of their income on FSD?

[Burwood]

The graph isn't very informative. You could very easily think, wow Tesla are big spenders on R&D when BMW spend 4X as much. The evidence says Tesla spunks all their money on stock awards to senior staff. Case in point above, the new Chair woman, who works at what exactly? A CPA will zero experience and who was pretty much forced onto the Board. Maybe she monitors Musks twitter account. Nice package if you can get it. lol