Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Clive Milk]

Some interesting points above, a good read. A nice mix of thoughts, it is a very interesting topic as it includes cars, technology and finance, which we all tend to be interested on here.

As a note the reason, or part of the reason, Tesla bounced back from the Friday low last week was not only the Tesla fans buying the dip, but also Tesla's biggest investment fangirl, Cathie Wood, was buying the dip too. If you are not sure who Cathie Wood is, here's a pic



I advise you look closely at her bosom.... for obvious reasons. Cathie, and her investment fund vehicle, ARK investments is closely tied to new high tech companies such as Tesla, AI, robotics and anything disruptive. Whilst other investment funds have paired back on Tesla as it became too much of the fun value in the last year Cathie has gone in for a penny in for a dollar. She is the person who said they would hit $7000 ( before the 5:1 Tesla split, $1400 today). Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the above picture, she thinks bitcoin could reach up to $400 000.

You can see how close her main ARKK fund is to Tesla here, in each price over the last 6 months



ARKK on the left of course.

Currently though all these high tech growth or momentum or disruptive stocks, or Jam tomorrow as I call them, have had less interest in the last month or 3 compared to boring old fashioned value stocks that make something called a profit as we head towards "normality" in the world again.

Cathie and Elon are betting on the technology side to keep Tesla ahead of the pack and keep its market value. They are not alone

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-biggest-competitio...

Tesla fans think they will be as far ahead in 5-10 years. I have my doubts, and why I will post later ( my wife is about to chuck me out of the study for a zoom meeting ....)

I think the current share price should be about $140, 50% more than it was before Elons $420 tweet and threatening to take the company private in 2018. 50% increase in 2 years since then is reasonable given profit and sales, certainly not the 600% it has reached.

[jjwilde]

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

I predict league tables and many articles.

[Heres Johnny]

jjwilde said:

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

I predict league tables and many articles.

What like the NCAP crash safety tables that once you get 5 out of 5 everybody stops looking like they don't look now?

[hyphen]

jjwilde said:

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

Volvo?

Tesla wants to be cutting edge, so you imagine they won't be the safest as their cars will always have a few 'beta' features enabled.

[ZesPak]

hyphen said:

Volvo?

Tesla wants to be cutting edge, so you imagine they won't be the safest as their cars will always have a few 'beta' features enabled.

What is "cutting edge" in self driving if not safe?

Out of all the tech available for sale today, I wouldn't trust any to bring me home safe. But I'd trust the Tesla tech, however flawed still, the most.

[Heres Johnny]

ZesPak said:

hyphen said:

Volvo?

Tesla wants to be cutting edge, so you imagine they won't be the safest as their cars will always have a few 'beta' features enabled.

What is "cutting edge" in self driving if not safe?

What is safe? Are you only thinking of accident statistics?

I can think of levels of interruption when on level 4 or the ability to drive in all situations, how cautious it is,does it needs a 5 second gap in traffic before it pulls across oncoming traffic or 3s, would it take decisions you do or would it frustrate you, how safe it makes you feel as a passenger, I can think if lots of measures where people would prefer one system to another that has nothing to do with safety once an acceptable level of safety has been met and lets not forget that Musk originally said "twice as safe" and has now admitted that it needs to be orders of magnitude higher than the average driver. So minds of self driving cars will be far safer than any taxi you will ever get into.

People turn off the Tesla current offering because of phantom braking - would it matter if on paper its 1% safer if you didn't feel safe?

But I just love your "I'd trust Tesla more than anyone.." that's just stupid given none of them do it yet and it's based on nothing but prejudice.

[Burwood]

jjwilde said:

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

I predict league tables and many articles.

They'll all be 'the safest' otherwise no approval. Measured in accidents per 10 million miles or such like and the numbers must be tiny in absolute terms.

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

[ZesPak]

Heres Johnny said:

But I just love your "I'd trust Tesla more than anyone.." that's just stupid given none of them do it yet and it's based on nothing but prejudice.

I clearly stated I don't trust any of them, but put a gun against my head I'd pick the Tesla. Based on experience with a couple of these systems.

Let me rephrase that, if you would be FORCED to pick one system from a manufacturer to bring you from on ramp to off ramp, which manufacturer would YOU pick?

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 4th March 15:49

[LG9k]

Burwood said:

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

That's a really good point. Do that many people want to buy a car to not drive it?

I guess Level 5 automation doesn't really work until every car is equipped with it and can communicate with other cars. That's going t take a very long time.

[Burwood]

LG9k said:

Burwood said:

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

That's a really good point. Do that many people want to buy a car to not drive it?

I guess Level 5 automation doesn't really work until every car is equipped with it and can communicate with other cars. That's going t take a very long time.

My wifes car is level 2. It's pretty 'clever'. It knows when the active cruise is on that a bend or stop is coming up. It can change lanes and steer on the motorway within lane. If you fall asleep it will pull over, when safe (allegedly). She doesn't use any of it as she doesn't trust the tech. If I drive she nags me to stop fiddling with it (the car ).

It also beeps and flashes annoying warnings all the time and in bad weather the sensors get dirty and stop working.

[RichardAP]

LG9k said:

Burwood said:

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

That's a really good point. Do that many people want to buy a car to not drive it?
.

I think this is an important point, which I agree with, and in fact how many people want to pay extra not to drive it.

Most people choose a car to suit their day to day requirements and their budget, FSD will probably be way down the list for the vast majority.

[Heres Johnny]

ZesPak said:

Heres Johnny said:

But I just love your "I'd trust Tesla more than anyone.." that's just stupid given none of them do it yet and it's based on nothing but prejudice.

I clearly stated I don't trust any of them, but put a gun against my head I'd pick the Tesla. Based on experience with a couple of these systems.

Let me rephrase that, if you would be FORCED to pick one system from a manufacturer to bring you from on ramp to off ramp, which manufacturer would YOU pick?

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 4th March 15:49

So why do you even have to say you'd trust Tesla more if you don't trust any? What does that add other than your faith in Tesla that even you can't substantiate? Nobody put a gun to your head so you didn't need to say it.

[ZesPak]

Heres Johnny said:

So why do you even have to say you'd trust Tesla more if you don't trust any? What does that add other than your faith in Tesla that even you can't substantiate? Nobody put a gun to your head so you didn't need to say it.

From the POV of the user, they are by far the most advanced. It's far from a self driving system but I've done hundreds if not thousands of miles of motorway miles with autopilot and it's hard to fault (although it may be a bit more aggressive changing lanes). While in the Passat, it feels like VW can't even get lane keep assist and adaptive cruise control right...

I wouldn't let either my kids drive, but I'm sure the 6yo will manage better than the 4yo. It's not because both will probably crash, I can't asses which one will get further without crashing.

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 4th March 16:23

[Heres Johnny]

ZesPak said:

Heres Johnny said:

So why do you even have to say you'd trust Tesla more if you don't trust any? What does that add other than your faith in Tesla that even you can't substantiate? Nobody put a gun to your head so you didn't need to say it.

From the POV of the user, they are by far the most advanced. It's far from a self driving system but I've done hundreds if not thousands of miles of motorway miles with autopilot and it's hard to fault (although it may be a bit more aggressive changing lanes). While in the Passat, it feels like VW can't even get lane keep assist and adaptive cruise control right...

I wouldn't let either my kids drive, but I'm sure the 6yo will manage better than the 4yo. It's not because both will probably crash, I can't asses which one will get further without crashing.

Edited by ZesPak on Thursday 4th March 16:23

From a drivers perspective its not the best.

As NCAP reported widely the whole engagement with driver/user it is relatively poor in the Tesla system. The BMW system and Audi systems are both rated much higher. NCAP says yours passat isn't great too which backs up your experience, it says the same thing about the Tesla. Just because the Passat is rubbish doesn't mean every other system except Tesla is.

Independent, qualified assessment rather than someone on the internet shooting from the hip.. again..

https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/assist...

[Throttle Body]

LG9k said:

Burwood said:

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

That's a really good point. Do that many people want to buy a car to not drive it?

I guess Level 5 automation doesn't really work until every car is equipped with it and can communicate with other cars. That's going t take a very long time.

In my view, the market DOES want FSD. It means that you can drive to the pub and back again safely. It means you can read your Kindle during a journey, play a board game with the family, catch up with emails. Just think how much time is wasted driving a car in traffic. And if you have a medical condition that prevents you from driving, it gives you greater independence.

But that is just part 1. Part 2 is giving up your own car. The cost of personal transportation will reduce massively when FSD is combined with car travel as a service. Just think how your street will look without cars parked down both sides. Much better.

[Burwood]

Throttle Body said:

LG9k said:

Burwood said:

That aside I don't think the market even wants FSD. They want very good assistance systems which mitigate risk of injury/death.

That's a really good point. Do that many people want to buy a car to not drive it?

I guess Level 5 automation doesn't really work until every car is equipped with it and can communicate with other cars. That's going t take a very long time.

In my view, the market DOES want FSD. It means that you can drive to the pub and back again safely. It means you can read your Kindle during a journey, play a board game with the family, catch up with emails. Just think how much time is wasted driving a car in traffic. And if you have a medical condition that prevents you from driving, it gives you greater independence.

But that is just part 1. Part 2 is giving up your own car. The cost of personal transportation will reduce massively when FSD is combined with car travel as a service. Just think how your street will look without cars parked down both sides. Much better.

That will never be allowed (drinking and driving). Plenty get car sick (reading). You’ll also have to listen to the conversation rather than ‘I’m concentrating’. The cost of travel will not reduce because the means of transport now costs more to buy/lease. You’re projecting buck Rogers.

[coetzeeh]

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

[Heres Johnny]

Heres Johnny said:

Look at the trend over the last week, dropped to below 700 and the algorithms kicked in to buy, it climbs but doesn’t hit 750, revised buying trigger set at 675, price slides, hits 675 and buying starts, climbs but doesn’t hit 725 so buy threshold set to 650, the targets dropping 25 each time, tomorrow we might see it back up because of a 650 buy, and if it doesn’t make 700 it will fall back to 625 probably by Monday.. it’s almost textbook and how day traders make their money
.

You can see why I’m not a day trader because my timescales were out but it bounced off 650 fleetingly, then bounced off 625 and is now trying to bounce off 600 on its march south.

Anybody around here still long on them?

[Heres Johnny]

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

[coetzeeh]

Heres Johnny said:

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

Glass half full I guess 😳.