Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[ZesPak]

Heres Johnny said:

From a drivers perspective its not the best.

As NCAP reported widely the whole engagement with driver/user it is relatively poor in the Tesla system. The BMW system and Audi systems are both rated much higher. NCAP says yours passat isn't great too which backs up your experience, it says the same thing about the Tesla. Just because the Passat is rubbish doesn't mean every other system except Tesla is.

Independent, qualified assessment rather than someone on the internet shooting from the hip.. again..

https://www.euroncap.com/en/ratings-rewards/assist...

I know the reports. Try to read them comprehensively and see how the scores are made up individually. Tesla loses 15% because they name it "autopilot" to start off the report .
I have no experience with the Audi system but I still find the BMW system lacking vs the Tesla.
I've read through the numbers and whatever way you turn them, they talk about the Audi system and BMW system being more engaging while the Tesla "The Tesla Model 3 excels in the level of Vehicle Assistance", but lacking driving collaboration. Basically they state it's the best self driving but a bad driver assist.

Anyway, in terms of safety

[Smiljan]

Throttle Body said:

In my view, the market DOES want FSD. It means that you can drive to the pub and back again safely. It means you can read your Kindle during a journey, play a board game with the family, catch up with emails. Just think how much time is wasted driving a car in traffic. And if you have a medical condition that prevents you from driving, it gives you greater independence.

But that is just part 1. Part 2 is giving up your own car. The cost of personal transportation will reduce massively when FSD is combined with car travel as a service. Just think how your street will look without cars parked down both sides. Much better.

I agree with some of that, when I'm older and don't feel comfortable any more I'd love to own a car that would transport me about. That'd be own though, not some sick filled moving trash can that no one cares about.

Uber always said that their service is equivalent monthly cost to a mid range lease if you use them all of the time instead of owning a car. A self driving car you don't own won't necessarily be any cheaper, it'll just funnel the money to less individuals once the driver is no longer needed.

Isn't Teslas own idea to not resell the cars at end of lease and just have them out earning money for the company?

If that is the case the only way your costs would reduce against owning would be if you only took a few short trips a month. They'd no doubt have a subscription level to lever money out of occasional users too.

You can get to the pub and back right now without driving when they re-open. Only difference is some of your money goes to driver too.

[anonymous-user]

jjwilde said:

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

I predict league tables and many articles.

Most people don't want self drive, they want affordable and reliable transport, they want a product that can last long enough to service a second hand market and be affordable for the people who cant afford new. Not looking like a piece of crap and falling apart cosmetically is a bonus.

[Clive Milk]

jjwilde said:

One company is going to have the safest self-driving cars and that will be a major selling point in the next 5-10 years.

Which company is that JJwilde? Given this summary of peoples experience with auto summon on Teslas will it be Tesla?



That's from a pro Tesla twitter account as well. I like him, he just likes driving his Tesla and is enthusiastic.

If they can't get that to work, a good FSD up to robotaxi standard is years away.


Last comment

"It has never hit anything so that is good"


Sums it up in my view.

Edited by Clive Milk on Thursday 4th March 21:24

[off_again]

ZesPak said:

I know the reports. Try to read them comprehensively and see how the scores are made up individually. Tesla loses 15% because they name it "autopilot" to start off the report .
I have no experience with the Audi system but I still find the BMW system lacking vs the Tesla.
I've read through the numbers and whatever way you turn them, they talk about the Audi system and BMW system being more engaging while the Tesla "The Tesla Model 3 excels in the level of Vehicle Assistance", but lacking driving collaboration. Basically they state it's the best self driving but a bad driver assist.

Anyway, in terms of safety

Mmmm, interesting.

IIHS ratings are pretty detailed though:

Model 3 - https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/tesla/model-3...

Audi Q8 - https://www.iihs.org/ratings/vehicle/audi/q8-4-doo...

Model 3 marked down for frontal crash to pedestrian and child seat anchors, but Q8 scores very well across the board but depends on spec for the lights from poor to acceptable. But what is really impressive is that both have excellent crash impact scores and shows that safety focused engineering does make a difference.

Not claiming that IIHS is perfect by any stretch, but is a good counter point to the EuroNCAP results. IIHS needs a bit of a re-vamp, but its pretty comprehensive.

[Burwood]

Heres Johnny said:

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

I hear VW captured about 30%. Oh dear
Hey but it’s all about FSD. The perfect trade would be short Tesla and long umm. No one saw that coming did they, JJ.

[Clive Milk]

I talked about the finance earlier, so let's now talk about the technology that Tesla are supposed to be way ahead of anyone else, both in the car and in the factory.

In the factory Tesla are claimed to be vertically integrated, which gives them a massive head start over legacy manufacturers. They makes their own batteries with Panasonic in a giga factory, they have their own software they control. The manufacturing process is all inhouse to the main and not reliant on other suppliers as much as legacy car makers.

2020 and 2021 has shown that they are not as really as vertically integrated as fanboys espouse. They have resorted to leaving Panasonic like a bride at the alter to get a cheap battery powered Chinese mistress. They have had to shut down production in the last month as cannot get enough chips, just like the rest of the car industry. How has vertical integration helped there?

Even in the car, as mentioned above the really high tech part, the FSD, still does not work as sold, for $xxxx amount. There is no indication it will ever get out of beta before people sell on their car or end the lease. Even if they finally crack it then it is likely to need a hardware upgrade and therefore be put on the waiting list whilst the technicians fit it. As the number of Teslas increases this length of time to be fitted out with it it in 2021 ( 2?) will be long.

My final point would be that Tesla fans claim that Tesla is not a car company, it is a technology company that makes cars. If that is true then that is a tricky place to be because

1. Tesla are competing against car companies who make cars very well.
2. Tesla are competing against tech companies such as Google, Apple, Nvidia and maybe even Microsoft etc.

That's David v Goliath and Samson.

To me Tesla today technology wise is like IBM and the PC just as the clones started appearing. In this case the clones have far more billions to spend on R&D than Tesla though, who it seems of late, prefer investing in bitcoin.

[Clive Milk]

Burwood said:

Heres Johnny said:

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

I hear VW captured about 30%. Oh dear
Hey but it’s all about FSD. The perfect trade would be short Tesla and long umm. No one saw that coming did they, JJ.

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

[Burwood]

Clive Milk said:

Burwood said:

Heres Johnny said:

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

I hear VW captured about 30%. Oh dear
Hey but it’s all about FSD. The perfect trade would be short Tesla and long umm. No one saw that coming did they, JJ.

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

It’s fixed as you’d expect (vw). I have a loaner from vw at the moment. A new model golf which is fine. I hate the new interface. It’s terrible. Drives great on rough pot holed roads. It hasn’t stopped them selling cars. What you say is very true. I’ve owned at least 2 vag cars for 2 decades. No complaints. BMW pissed me off but happy to give them a go. This golf build quality is bad by normal golf standards too. They need to improve and I realise they have a huge hole to fill. But the reality is they have generations/legacy and will prevail. That’s why I’ll buy vw and sell Tesla .

[Smiljan]

Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.



another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.

No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.

Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54

[Clive Milk]

Burwood said:

Clive Milk said:

Burwood said:

Heres Johnny said:

coetzeeh said:

Tesla captures 10% of BEV sales in Germany with ~1900 units sold.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/04/germany-plugi...

‘Capture’ or ‘slump to’ 10% of BEV sales?

I hear VW captured about 30%. Oh dear
Hey but it’s all about FSD. The perfect trade would be short Tesla and long umm. No one saw that coming did they, JJ.

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

It’s fixed as you’d expect (vw). I have a loaner from vw at the moment. A new model golf which is fine. I hate the new interface. It’s terrible. Drives great on rough pot holed roads. It hasn’t stopped them selling cars. What you say is very true. I’ve owned at least 2 vag cars for 2 decades. No complaints. BMW pissed me off but happy to give them a go. This golf build quality is bad by normal golf standards too. They need to improve and I realise they have a huge hole to fill. But the reality is they have generations/legacy and will prevail. That’s why I’ll buy vw and sell Tesla .

I'll wait till I see it fixed on reviews, not owning one, but due to over the air updates no doubt it will be. I'm surprised VW did a Tesla though and rushed it out. Part of their empire, Porsche and Audi, don't seem to have the issues ...

Maybe an incentive to move up the VAG hierarchy?

[off_again]

Clive Milk said:

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

Yeah, I was surprised by that too. VAG have made mistakes in the past, but have also been very consistent on core models (like the Golf). Seems strange to be honest. I guess they took a leaf out of the Tesla book though - release to market and fix later?

That said though, I am somewhat interested in the ID4 (dont get the ID3 in the US) in AWD form. So been watching the various reviews. Some reviewers dont care about the infotainment, some criticize heavily and some others seem to get the updated one. Just seems to be very inconsistent! No idea why they let that happen. Specifically the ID4 is doing the rounds here in the US now and the comments are positive, but the infotainment is terrible - yet, watching some of the Euro reviews of the ID3, some owners are getting updates which fix a ton of issues. How on earth did the VW PR people let the ID4 go out without the update? Did someone not check? Seems insane. Or is it more an issue at the back-end on the update process? Who knows...

Clive Milk said:

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

National pride runs strong in most countries. Just a shame that the UK doesnt have a decent priced set of local manufacturers. Not many people can afford a $70k Jag or the Range Rover electric when it comes.... I guess there is the Mini-e, but thats a narrow market anyway. But yes, agree on the Scandies though - Volvo has a lot of brand loyalty and as a manufacturer, they are doing great at the moment.

[Clive Milk]

Smiljan said:

Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.



another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.

No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.

Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54

Ok, I have warbled on about the Tesla finance, the tech and now perhaps the most interesting of all, Mr Musk.

He is just as you describe him, a salesman who sells things. With panache. I'll just list 5 good and bad things about Elon like Carwow do.

The good.


1. He is a driving force behind two very new upstart companies that have made waves in their respective fields.
2. Both products in those fields are good in class.
3. He inspires the next generation.
4. Interacts with buyers and shareholders on a daily basis.
5.

The bad

1. He promises the moon, literally.
2. He only cares about being the worlds richest and most popular man. All that save the planet stuff is hogwash.
3. Abuses twitter, from pumping his agenda to calling someone a pedo. The Trump of the business world.
4. Made his workforce go back to work during covid just to keep the share price up. He said Covid was bogus...
5.

You can fill in 5 for both yourselves.

You'll never be bored of Elon.

[Clive Milk]

off_again said:

Clive Milk said:

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

Yeah, I was surprised by that too. VAG have made mistakes in the past, but have also been very consistent on core models (like the Golf). Seems strange to be honest. I guess they took a leaf out of the Tesla book though - release to market and fix later?

That said though, I am somewhat interested in the ID4 (dont get the ID3 in the US) in AWD form. So been watching the various reviews. Some reviewers dont care about the infotainment, some criticize heavily and some others seem to get the updated one. Just seems to be very inconsistent! No idea why they let that happen. Specifically the ID4 is doing the rounds here in the US now and the comments are positive, but the infotainment is terrible - yet, watching some of the Euro reviews of the ID3, some owners are getting updates which fix a ton of issues. How on earth did the VW PR people let the ID4 go out without the update? Did someone not check? Seems insane. Or is it more an issue at the back-end on the update process? Who knows...

Clive Milk said:

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

National pride runs strong in most countries. Just a shame that the UK doesnt have a decent priced set of local manufacturers. Not many people can afford a $70k Jag or the Range Rover electric when it comes.... I guess there is the Mini-e, but thats a narrow market anyway. But yes, agree on the Scandies though - Volvo has a lot of brand loyalty and as a manufacturer, they are doing great at the moment.

Good post.

UK not having a decent low cost EV car ! You forget MG young man !

[Burwood]

off_again said:

Clive Milk said:

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

Yeah, I was surprised by that too. VAG have made mistakes in the past, but have also been very consistent on core models (like the Golf). Seems strange to be honest. I guess they took a leaf out of the Tesla book though - release to market and fix later?

That said though, I am somewhat interested in the ID4 (dont get the ID3 in the US) in AWD form. So been watching the various reviews. Some reviewers dont care about the infotainment, some criticize heavily and some others seem to get the updated one. Just seems to be very inconsistent! No idea why they let that happen. Specifically the ID4 is doing the rounds here in the US now and the comments are positive, but the infotainment is terrible - yet, watching some of the Euro reviews of the ID3, some owners are getting updates which fix a ton of issues. How on earth did the VW PR people let the ID4 go out without the update? Did someone not check? Seems insane. Or is it more an issue at the back-end on the update process? Who knows...

Clive Milk said:

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

National pride runs strong in most countries. Just a shame that the UK doesnt have a decent priced set of local manufacturers. Not many people can afford a $70k Jag or the Range Rover electric when it comes.... I guess there is the Mini-e, but thats a narrow market anyway. But yes, agree on the Scandies though - Volvo has a lot of brand loyalty and as a manufacturer, they are doing great at the moment.

I would have bought an I’d.4 for my wife but the lack of awd was a non starter. Had to buy a diesel again. By the time that’s done there’ll be plenty of choice

[off_again]

Throttle Body said:

In my view, the market DOES want FSD. It means that you can drive to the pub and back again safely. It means you can read your Kindle during a journey, play a board game with the family, catch up with emails. Just think how much time is wasted driving a car in traffic. And if you have a medical condition that prevents you from driving, it gives you greater independence.

Yeah, I think that is where we might like to go, but I am not convinced FSD is the way to do it. What you are proposing has absolutely no legal framework today, and unlikely to have any support for some time. The idea that you are introducing a technology to allow you to drink and drive is going to be a tough sell for any legislation. I get that this might sound good, but the idea of a 2 ton vehicle driving itself home with a bunch of drunks in it will have law enforcement, safety organizations and pretty much anyone else pulling out their pitch forks and burning torches!

But, consider the changes we have seen during the whole Covid time. Not sure about the UK, but here in the US there are fundamental changes in the way that businesses will operate and while work from home has been popular in the past, its going to be the norm for many moving forward. There will be a return to the office at some point, but not in the numbers that we saw before. Commute times are massively down in congested cities and the key use case for FSD is diminishing - make your commute simpler, easier and safer! If we arent commuting, why do we need to buy a new EV? Why do we need to spend $10k on a feature that we wont use daily?

To put some numbers to this - for the Bay Area, traffic is in some places, around 80% of 2019's numbers, but thats still a pretty big drop. However, if you know the geography, its the bridges that are the nightmare - they were around 65% of their previous numbers. That will lead to extra charges to keep the revenue flowing, but it shows that local traffic is still flowing, but commute traffic over a distance is dramatically down. Its this profile that I FSD being the key use case, but with that down? Why spend that money? If you are just zipping around your city or community, you probably arent using FSD anyway, because you will drive faster than it anyway (stop sign? What stop sign? - you know what I mean).

Is FSD the short term benefit that it is cracked up to be? I dont think so. Now, a personal mobility / transit system that can carry multiple people at a fraction of the cost, efficiently and environmentally friendly? Now thats better. These services make much more sense and allows people to 'rent' transport as and when they need it and potentially not even have a car at all. It wont be a car at all, it will be some sort of box on wheels that can be cleaned easily and simply. Its where Uber and Lyft are trying to go (and failing) and where Waymo wants to be. FSD in a Tesla? Yeah, if you are doing long trips and large interstate freeways. I get it. But not everyone does that.

And I didnt even mention that FSD / robotaxi's are BS...

[hyphen]

Smiljan said:

Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.



another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.

No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.

Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54

I think he means Tesla FSD is going to be used to land SpaceX rockets and stop them exploding.

[Clive Milk]

Burwood said:

off_again said:

Clive Milk said:

From all the reviews I have read the ID3 and ID4 software is a pile of crap, I am surprised that VW released it like that to be honest.

Yeah, I was surprised by that too. VAG have made mistakes in the past, but have also been very consistent on core models (like the Golf). Seems strange to be honest. I guess they took a leaf out of the Tesla book though - release to market and fix later?

That said though, I am somewhat interested in the ID4 (dont get the ID3 in the US) in AWD form. So been watching the various reviews. Some reviewers dont care about the infotainment, some criticize heavily and some others seem to get the updated one. Just seems to be very inconsistent! No idea why they let that happen. Specifically the ID4 is doing the rounds here in the US now and the comments are positive, but the infotainment is terrible - yet, watching some of the Euro reviews of the ID3, some owners are getting updates which fix a ton of issues. How on earth did the VW PR people let the ID4 go out without the update? Did someone not check? Seems insane. Or is it more an issue at the back-end on the update process? Who knows...

Clive Milk said:

It does go to show though that people will by cars made in their own nation given a choice. That is something that Tesla need to worry about in Europe, their Gigafactory in Germany might be a waste of money.

Once Volvo are fulltime EV I expect the scandinavians to drop Tesla like a hot herring ....

National pride runs strong in most countries. Just a shame that the UK doesnt have a decent priced set of local manufacturers. Not many people can afford a $70k Jag or the Range Rover electric when it comes.... I guess there is the Mini-e, but thats a narrow market anyway. But yes, agree on the Scandies though - Volvo has a lot of brand loyalty and as a manufacturer, they are doing great at the moment.

I would have bought an I’d.4 for my wife but the lack of awd was a non starter. Had to buy a diesel again. By the time that’s done there’ll be plenty of choice

That's the good thing about a diesel, if you buy it now it will do 50mpg. In 6-10 years time it will still do 50mpg to the gallon. It won't be worth much when you come to sell it.

If you bought a BEV now you will be stuck at 200 miles range and 2 hours recharging. In 6-10 years time everyone will be having 500 miles range and 20 minutes charging. Your expensive to buy BEV will be worth NOTHING !

There is one less wash - rinse cycle in diesel/petrol if you keep your car for a long time and don't hire / PCP I think just to get EV tech up to a more sweet spot.

When they start doing city cars at reasonable price, they have cracked it.

[Clive Milk]

hyphen said:

Smiljan said:

Apparently full self driving is nearly perfect and coming next month.......hopefully.



another well timed, shares tanking, FSD coming soon tweet.

No substance or detail yet again. The guy is a snake oil salesman extra ordinarie.

Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 4th March 21:54

I think he means Tesla FSD is going to be used to land SpaceX rockets and stop them exploding.

The ironic thing is that Elon might dump Tesla and let it be bought out whilst he concentrates on SpaceX Starlink.

Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.

If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.

If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.

[hyphen]

Clive Milk said:

The ironic thing is that Elon might dump Tesla and let it be bought out whilst he concentrates on SpaceX Starlink.

Starlink has the potential to make him by far the richest man on the planet. It's looking good so far.

If it gives him that and makes him rich, he will dump Tesla.

If there is a SpaceX / Starlink IPO in the next 6 months then that will be interesting. I might buy.

On Joe Rogan recently, Elon said that Satellites are "terrible" for providing internet in dense urban areas. So will it make him that rich if it is just the north of Scotland that uses it in the UK?