Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[Mikehig]

After Bitcoin, Tesla moving into other areas of mining:
https://electrek.co/2021/03/05/tesla-takes-parts-c...

According to this report:
"Tesla has recently indicated that it was planning to move into the mining business to secure resources for battery production. The automaker has also secured lithium mining rights in Nevada."

Seems like a good move to secure supplies as a precaution against possible shortages.

[cc3]

Company doesn’t pay any dividends so little point holding much of this given what’s happening in bond markets it’s on a one way slide

[Burwood]

Mikehig said:

After Bitcoin, Tesla moving into other areas of mining:
https://electrek.co/2021/03/05/tesla-takes-parts-c...

According to this report:
"Tesla has recently indicated that it was planning to move into the mining business to secure resources for battery production. The automaker has also secured lithium mining rights in Nevada."

Seems like a good move to secure supplies as a precaution against possible shortages.

It’s not a ‘move’ other than a 1:100000 they get supply in exchange for lending their environment cred, which given BTC is more bks. Just PR-they can’t sell their capacity. The story is a mote against Bitcoin energy

[jjwilde]

Burwood said:

jjwilde said:

ZesPak said:

Burwood said:

who would have thunk eh. Imagine a basket Short Tesla-Long VW

On the other hand... isn't it still worth something like 10x it was when this thread started?

Don't spoil it with facts!

Amateur retort. It’s lost 30% of value in weeks. That’s bad. If you’re happy, what do I care.

Today’s action is a dead cat bounce

Oh no, not 30%, that means it's only up ~600% on the year

Only in this sub could a 600% gain 'ackchyually' be a loss.

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 5th March 23:00

[Burwood]

Posted by your own hand, too.

[anonymous-user]

jjwilde said:

Oh no, not 30%, that means it's only up ~600% on the year

Only in this sub could a 600% gain 'ackchyually' be a loss.

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 5th March 23:00

It's well below the price at joining the S&P, so all the institutional investors that came onboard when it joined the S&P have lost money unless they bailed after the early gain.

[Burwood]

JJ reminds me of Lenny (delray misfits). A 40% drop to $539 over a 6 week duration. But pops up laughing to say 'I'm still up'. A very nervous laugh too. Perhaps Elon was laughing too at having lost 80B dollars on paper. Tesla will never see 900 again imo. What you saw today was a Short covering across a lot of the market.

I hear Michael Burry went balls deep and doubled down at $590.

[Mikehig]

Burwood said:

Mikehig said:

After Bitcoin, Tesla moving into other areas of mining:
https://electrek.co/2021/03/05/tesla-takes-parts-c...

According to this report:
"Tesla has recently indicated that it was planning to move into the mining business to secure resources for battery production. The automaker has also secured lithium mining rights in Nevada."

Seems like a good move to secure supplies as a precaution against possible shortages.

It’s not a ‘move’ other than a 1:100000 they get supply in exchange for lending their environment cred, which given BTC is more bks. Just PR-they can’t sell their capacity. The story is a mote against Bitcoin energy

Not sure what you are saying. My post was about Tesla making moves to secure supplies for battery production. Yes, they are just lending their name to the nickel operation but, according to the article, they have bought the rights to mine Lithium in Nevada and plan to develop a new extraction process.
My comment about Bitcoin was flippant. It's more interesting, imho, that this gives credence to the forecasts of shortages of these key battery materials.

[Burwood]

No dig at you Mike . I was agreeing that Tesla is a floating turd, about to get flushed.

Growth in single digits this year
More operational losses
Musk will have a meltdown

[EddieSteadyGo]

Burwood said:

No dig at you Mike . I was agreeing that Tesla is a floating turd, about to get flushed.

Growth in single digits this year
More operational losses
Musk will have a meltdown

I doubt growth will be single digits. This quarter might not be good, but later this year they will have the full capacity from their Shanghai factory and possibly the opening of their new Berlin factory.

The Berlin factory opens up the EU market without the same automotive tariffs, which will give improved margins. And there is a lot of demand for the Model Y which hasn't really yet been sold yet in large volume outside of the US (although sales are now growing in China).

In the US it seems Biden is going to allow Tesla's customers to claim the same tax credits still being enjoyed by the other car markers, which will likely boost demand significantly. And there is the continued push from governments around the world to move from piston cars to EVs which will benefit Tesla to some level.

And last year includes quite a lot of covid disruption, which makes beating last year's figures easier.

Finally they are going to move to a subscription model for their "FSD" software. Of course, it isn't close to actually being FSD, but I think the beta software looks to be a step forward in terms of driver assistance software, so a subscription model will increase the take up rate and boost recurring revenues.

Overall, I doubt we will see Musk have a meltdown - he has raised a ton of cash off the back of the pumped stock price, as well as triggering his huge personal compensation package. So I would imagine he personally will be feeling relatively relaxed.

[Mikehig]

Burwood said:

No dig at you Mike . I was agreeing that Tesla is a floating turd, about to get flushed.

Growth in single digits this year
More operational losses
Musk will have a meltdown

No worries.

[Burwood]

Eddie- just one comment on your post-even if they over deliver on all of that it still doesn't justify todays price. And sadly for Elon his factories churn out more cars than he can currently sell. Berlin will be on a very slow burn and talk of another factory in Somerset- he is arrogant enough to break ground and take about 10 years to build it. Anything to keep pumping the stock.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Burwood said:

Eddie- just one comment on your post-even if they over deliver on all of that it still doesn't justify todays price.

Actually I agree. The current share price still seems based on dreams about gigantic new FSD revenues - after all, Elon did promise 1 million robotaxis on the road by the end of last year... although I'm pretty sure the handful of people hand-picked to get the FSD beta would acknowledge that their Model 3 isn't anywhere near to "robotaxi" capable.

Surely the reality is that as a car company Tesla are pretty well placed to sell an increasing number of cars over the next few years. The brand is "cool" to the teenagers of today (the buyers of tomorrow), and I don't think it is unrealistic that by 2030 they could be selling 5-6m cars per year, when they have a Model 2 on the road etc.

So I would think you could value the company at $200bn pretty easily on this basis. Add in the potential from solar and storage, and take a fraction of the FSD potential as an outside bet and they could be interesting. But at the current share price, they need pretty much *everything* to go their way, which just seems unlikely.

[Burwood]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Burwood said:

Eddie- just one comment on your post-even if they over deliver on all of that it still doesn't justify todays price.

Actually I agree. The current share price still seems based on dreams about gigantic new FSD revenues - after all, Elon did promise 1 million robotaxis on the road by the end of last year... although I'm pretty sure the handful of people hand-picked to get the FSD beta would acknowledge that their Model 3 isn't anywhere near to "robotaxi" capable.

Surely the reality is that as a car company Tesla are pretty well placed to sell an increasing number of cars over the next few years. The brand is "cool" to the teenagers of today (the buyers of tomorrow), and I don't think it is unrealistic that by 2030 they could be selling 5-6m cars per year, when they have a Model 2 on the road etc.

So I would think you could value the company at $200bn pretty easily on this basis. Add in the potential from solar and storage, and take a fraction of the FSD potential as an outside bet and they could be interesting. But at the current share price, they need pretty much *everything* to go their way, which just seems unlikely.

Solar/Storage make losses. Nothing special about it and is a commodity (as are cars). Taking the solar side-it is worth zero today. 5-6M cars puts it at twice the output of BMW and half the size of VAG or Toyota. Where are these sales coming from. The legacy ICE OEMs are taking sales from Tesla. Even at a 20% run rate they are pegged at 2.5M cars and they are currently growing at 15% and falling. I'm really doubting they can manage 1m cars. Competition is fierce and it's snowballing. Give it 36 months and just VAG will sell more EVs than Tesla and make money on every unit sold. I think when the carbon credits disappear they are in for a very tough time. Tough as is a valuation 90% lower than today. The days of $900 are gone and now it's going to be a whipsaw volatile stock until reality sets in and investors turn negative. It's the same old classic scenario. The stock will get bid up some on the basis 'it must be cheap' as earnings are released and it's disappointing it will tank and recover some then tank again and again.

If we have a market crash(macro event) Tesla will be pummelled because it has no earnings. The same goes for all the other tech bubble stocks with zero earnings. I hear Rocket Labs is listing. It's valuation is 70X revenue. Anyone who thinks that's ok is barking mad.

[EddieSteadyGo]

Burwood said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

Burwood said:

Eddie- just one comment on your post-even if they over deliver on all of that it still doesn't justify todays price.

Actually I agree. The current share price still seems based on dreams about gigantic new FSD revenues - after all, Elon did promise 1 million robotaxis on the road by the end of last year... although I'm pretty sure the handful of people hand-picked to get the FSD beta would acknowledge that their Model 3 isn't anywhere near to "robotaxi" capable.

Surely the reality is that as a car company Tesla are pretty well placed to sell an increasing number of cars over the next few years. The brand is "cool" to the teenagers of today (the buyers of tomorrow), and I don't think it is unrealistic that by 2030 they could be selling 5-6m cars per year, when they have a Model 2 on the road etc.

So I would think you could value the company at $200bn pretty easily on this basis. Add in the potential from solar and storage, and take a fraction of the FSD potential as an outside bet and they could be interesting. But at the current share price, they need pretty much *everything* to go their way, which just seems unlikely.

Solar/Storage make losses. Nothing special about it and is a commodity (as are cars). Taking the solar side-it is worth zero today. 5-6M cars puts it at twice the output of BMW and half the size of VAG or Toyota. Where are these sales coming from. The legacy ICE OEMs are taking sales from Tesla. Even at a 20% run rate they are pegged at 2.5M cars and they are currently growing at 15% and falling. I'm really doubting they can manage 1m cars. Competition is fierce and it's snowballing. Give it 36 months and just VAG will sell more EVs than Tesla and make money on every unit sold. I think when the carbon credits disappear they are in for a very tough time. Tough as is a valuation 90% lower than today. The days of $900 are gone and now it's going to be a whipsaw volatile stock until reality sets in and investors turn negative. It's the same old classic scenario. The stock will get bid up some on the basis 'it must be cheap' as earnings are released and it's disappointing it will tank and recover some then tank again and again.

If we have a market crash(macro event) Tesla will be pummelled because it has no earnings. The same goes for all the other tech bubble stocks with zero earnings. I hear Rocket Labs is listing. It's valuation is 70X revenue. Anyone who thinks that's ok is barking mad.

I'm not sure market share means that much if by 2030 most cars are EVs. After all, if Tesla were making 6m cars per year at that point, they would only have a fraction of the total market size.

The bigger question is how quickly the market switches from piston cars to EVs - if that transition continues to be slow, Tesla will have a big problem, regardless of the competitor products. Personally I think it will accelerate - there is too many political forces pushing in that direction.

In the longer term, more competition is a good thing, but I don't think VW will blow Tesla out of the water - they will just compete alongside each other. Some people will pick Tesla, some will pick Ford, or VW or BMW etc just as they do now.

In terms of some macro shock event, I think the pandemic was a pretty big problem for many carmakers and Tesla seems to have come out the other side. And with decent cash reserves too, after the dilution trick they did.

So your pessimistic scenario could happen, but I think my outline is more probable. But will be interesting to see.

[Noah EV]

jjwilde said:

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 5th March 23:00

Haha!


That is now your avatar. It is suiting you well.

[Burwood]

Noah EV said:

jjwilde said:

Edited by jjwilde on Friday 5th March 23:00

Haha!


That is now your avatar. It is suiting you well.

I did think it a bizarre post.

[Smiljan]

Well, looks like the share price crash has spooked Musk.

So far this weekend his stock propping announcements include

FSD Beta program to be expanded, apply if you want it (not giving any way to apply) double numbers of current testers (ie approx another 35 users)

Hours later - demand for FSD so incredibly high we’re adding a button so anyone can download the beta. In a couple of weeks or so , hopefully. Warns to “be careful though”

Then, Cybertruck news a few hours after that, coming soon, news coming Q2 although we haven’t built the factory yet so just probably some news coming.

In summary, no news of refresh Model S and X, which are due to be delivered now. Customers given delivery dates have had them removed. No presentation of the new car that he said he would do.

FSD to probably, maybe now be released as an unfinished beta to everyone and you just should “be careful”

Cybertruck finished design to be shown sometime before end of June, hopefully, despite saying the design was buttoned up last month all finished. Factory isn’t built yet and end of 2021 promised deliveries will need some “luck” to happen.

Let’s see how all of the “coming soon, maybe, possibly” news spewed out over the weekend makes that stock fly. Will people really believe any of it?

FSD was “feature complete” soon in 2019,2020 and now 2021. Are they really going to push thus buggy, half baked, clearly not ready beta to all customers in 2 weeks? I suspect it’s again a manipulation and that he’ll say they meant a download button will appear for the chosen few vetted and trusted extra users, not for everyone who’s paid thousands for it.

Anyway, that’s my speculation for the weekend, I’m not buying any of it. Let’s see of the stock pushes up like it normally does with such news.

[jason61c]

Smiljan said:

Well, looks like the share price crash has spooked Musk.

So far this weekend his stock propping announcements include

FSD Beta program to be expanded, apply if you want it (not giving any way to apply) double numbers of current testers (ie approx another 35 users)

Hours later - demand for FSD so incredibly high we’re adding a button so anyone can download the beta. In a couple of weeks or so , hopefully. Warns to “be careful though”

Then, Cybertruck news a few hours after that, coming soon, news coming Q2 although we haven’t built the factory yet so just probably some news coming.

In summary, no news of refresh Model S and X, which are due to be delivered now. Customers given delivery dates have had them removed. No presentation of the new car that he said he would do.

FSD to probably, maybe now be released as an unfinished beta to everyone and you just should “be careful”

Cybertruck finished design to be shown sometime before end of June, hopefully, despite saying the design was buttoned up last month all finished. Factory isn’t built yet and end of 2021 promised deliveries will need some “luck” to happen.

Let’s see how all of the “coming soon, maybe, possibly” news spewed out over the weekend makes that stock fly. Will people really believe any of it?

FSD was “feature complete” soon in 2019,2020 and now 2021. Are they really going to push thus buggy, half baked, clearly not ready beta to all customers in 2 weeks? I suspect it’s again a manipulation and that he’ll say they meant a download button will appear for the chosen few vetted and trusted extra users, not for everyone who’s paid thousands for it.

Anyway, that’s my speculation for the weekend, I’m not buying any of it. Let’s see of the stock pushes up like it normally does with such news.

If it continues the downward trend, that'll be more telling.

[anonymous-user]

You would have thought it would need to pass type approval testing to be released to the general public.

It amazes me they can do software updates that affect the car functionality without full type aproval also.