Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive...

[Heres Johnny]

DonkeyApple said:

Yup, I think a revamp of the drivetrain in the premium models is a smarter move than a revamp of the skin as a means to rekindle growth. Sales in the S and X plateaued years ago but the recent fall from that level has not helped the company by any means and I think that if anything will help rekindle demand and also put a bigger difference between the premium models and the base ones for the masses it’s going to be a funkier drivetrain over a new body kit.

It looks like they’ve also been trying to use free charging offers to entice the wealthy consumer away from the 3 and back to the S and X and that also makes sense.

In the Q3 data I am not sure we will see anything of interest in overall delivery data but where the interesting data may well lie is down in the detail and how many wealthy consumers they have attracted over the base level ones who just want a basic Tesla product. And cleverly they have also added an escape route if S and X orders haven’t recovered in Q3 as everyone is clearly waiting for the new drivetrain now.

G3 and the Y aren’t going to add much in Q3 as I think all we expect is for Tesla to say that both are all going well and on or ahead of target. Although as G3 is going to be delivering product to market within Q4 you would expect a little update on the fitting out and staffing.

Maybe there will be an update on autonomy bit that doesn’t seem too likely. But it is important as every model 3 being sold will be worth between $100-$200,000 by the Q4 2020 so knowing who will actually own these cars at that point in time is actually rather important. As a car company that just sells cars what Tesla has over all its other peers is the massive differentiator that rather than its cars falling 30% in value over 2/3 years, Tesla’s cars will appreciate in value by over 300%. This means that as a stock holder you don’t want these cars that are currently rolling off the production line to be owned by the people who will be driving them, you don’t want them to benefit from this uplift at the end of next year. You need to get them out on lease deals so that their ownership remains on your balance sheet so that in 12 months time the 1 million robo taxis add that $100,000,000,000 of tangible value to your balance sheet plus, you own all the income revenue going forward. It’s at that point Tesla becomes the most valuable car company on the planet and will crush all the others who are a decade behind in autonomy and will have to buy in the tech from Tesla to stay in business, just becoming satellite sales arms of Tesla.

So given that this time next year over $100bn of value is going to be created, along with very major real cash flows, we probably do want to start getting a picture on which parties are going to be the recipients of this.

The risk is that any day now a vulture fund could be created in order to procure these assets ahead of their uplift in value and rob Tesla of the winnings.

Its going to be an interesting quarter - Q3 last year was the the profit quarter, Q4 was also in the black but they've slumped into the red this year again.

They need $7B revenue and I'd have thought 500M profit in Q3 to be able to look the market in the eye

I think we can safely consign FSD to the bin for a while. There have been two cases in the UK this week of coppers stopping people when using autopilot as they suspected the driver was sleep or pissed. Thats soon get a little tiresome.

[jjwilde]

RobDickinson said:

Hollands sales are nuts. Over 1700 model 3s in 7 days making it the best selling car for the year.... But obviously demand problems...

Even if Tesla becomes the no.1 selling car in the UK people on this thread would still find a way to say Tesla were a failure.

Next it will be the 0% BIK is 'unfair' and 'if it was not for that Tesla would have failed in the UK' etc. etc. I can't wait for it because this is my go to comedy mental gymnastics thread on PH.

I also like to read similar threads on bitcoin.

[Heres Johnny]

jjwilde said:

RobDickinson said:

Hollands sales are nuts. Over 1700 model 3s in 7 days making it the best selling car for the year.... But obviously demand problems...

Even if Tesla becomes the no.1 selling car in the UK people on this thread would still find a way to say Tesla were a failure.

Next it will be the 0% BIK is 'unfair' and 'if it was not for that Tesla would have failed in the UK' etc. etc. I can't wait for it because this is my go to comedy mental gymnastics thread on PH.

I also like to read similar threads on bitcoin.

Still waiting for you to respond on your pedo beliefs and why

[T-195]

jjwilde said:

RobDickinson said:

Hollands sales are nuts. Over 1700 model 3s in 7 days making it the best selling car for the year.... But obviously demand problems...

Even if Tesla becomes the no.1 selling car in the UK people on this thread would still find a way to say Tesla were a failure.

EV ownership is heavily subsidised in Holland for one. Small country means the lack of range is less of a issue.

Don't let the facts stand in the way of a good story.

I'd say Tesla is amongst the lowest volume sellers in the UK, but that is about to change, obviously.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Heres Johnny said:

They need $7B revenue and I'd have thought 500M profit in Q3 to be able to look the market in the eye

I doubt they can do that until Giga 3 is at full production (passed inspection yesterday) they look capped at 90k cars a quarter at the moment so maybe $3.2 Bill

[T-195]

Tesla sales figures across all of Europe.

[anonymous-user]

I wonder if the Tesla haters also moaned about diesel subsidies and tax breaks back in the day?

Whats that, some of your best friends are EV drivers and you once dated an i3? Sorry, my mistake.

[hyphen]

jjwilde said:

RobDickinson said:

Hollands sales are nuts. Over 1700 model 3s in 7 days making it the best selling car for the year.... But obviously demand problems...

Even if Tesla becomes the no.1 selling car in the UK people on this thread would still find a way to say Tesla were a failure.

Tesla would have to release a car named Tesla first

[T-195]

Selling 10x as many cars in heavily subsidised Norway and Holland as other less subsidised countries.

Really not hard.

[Heres Johnny]

Dave Hedgehog said:

Heres Johnny said:

They need $7B revenue and I'd have thought 500M profit in Q3 to be able to look the market in the eye

I doubt they can do that until Giga 3 is at full production (passed inspection yesterday) they look capped at 90k cars a quarter at the moment so maybe $3.2 Bill

Why? They did 6.8B and 312M in Q3 last year. Its tiny incremental revenue and profit is a case of good management

If they can't it shows it was a massaged number last year

[T-195]

Sambucket said:

I wonder if the Tesla haters also moaned about diesel subsidies and tax breaks back in the day?

Whats that, some of your best friends are EV drivers and you once dated an i3? Sorry, my mistake.

Not me Bruv, never owned a diesel.

I don't buy cars because they are cheap to run.

[Heres Johnny]

T-195 said:

Selling 10x as many cars in heavily subsidised Norway and Holland as other less subsidised countries.

Really not hard.

Be the same here next year with zero BIK - plenty will be flooding to them when you consider the tax break against a BMW 3 series is what, £3k a year in your pocket.

[AstonZagato]

Interesting article on Uber

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/13/uber-and-...


Also, WeWork IPO cancelled. Last round of financing done at a $47bn valuation. Not enough demand today at $15-$20bn valuation. WeWork currently losing $2 for every $1 of revenue.

[anonymous-user]

Uptake of EV is key for UK gov emissions targets

0 bik is designed to get EV into fleets and start to build a pool for the used market in time

Whether EVs have a long enough life span to make that worthwhile to do now remains to be seen

[coetzeeh]

Sambucket said:

I wonder if the Tesla haters also moaned about diesel subsidies and tax breaks back in the day?

Whats that, some of your best friends are EV drivers and you once dated an i3? Sorry, my mistake.

dont forget more thn 70% of the cost of petrol/diesel at the pump is tax/revenue to govt. so they are recovering mega.

For now incentives such is BIK in place but electricity not yet being taxed.

[hyphen]

AstonZagato said:

Interesting article on Uber

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/13/uber-and-...


Also, WeWork IPO cancelled. Last round of financing done at a $47bn valuation. Not enough demand today at $15-$20bn valuation. WeWork currently losing $2 for every $1 of revenue.

Thanks, will read that later.

I've been keeping up with the WeWork IPO disaster They need to IPO at a minimum amount by end of year, as they have agreed $6bn in loans and that depends on it.

SoftBank are looking like amateurs.

[AstonZagato]

hyphen said:

AstonZagato said:

Interesting article on Uber

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/13/uber-and-...


Also, WeWork IPO cancelled. Last round of financing done at a $47bn valuation. Not enough demand today at $15-$20bn valuation. WeWork currently losing $2 for every $1 of revenue.

Thanks, will read that later.

I've been keeping up with the WeWork IPO disaster They need to IPO at a minimum amount by end of year, as they have agreed $6bn in loans and that depends on it.

SoftBank are looking like amateurs.

Indeed. They need to raise $3bn of cash in an IPO by year end. However, at the lower valuation, they need far more than Softbank's support.

[Witchfinder]

jjwilde said:

Even if Tesla becomes the no.1 selling car in the UK people on this thread would still find a way to say Tesla were a failure.

Anyone can sell £10 notes for a fiver. Volume is not a sole or reliable indicator of success. The product is good, but is the business well-led and profitable?

[anonymous-user]

Sambucket said:

I wonder if the Tesla haters also moaned about diesel subsidies and tax breaks back in the day?

Whats that, some of your best friends are EV drivers and you once dated an i3? Sorry, my mistake.

I’m not saying you’re wrong but I don’t remember diesel being subsidised relative to other fuels in cars.

As I recall BIK was always a couple of % higher, the cars cost more in the first place and diesel was always more expensive than petrol.

What subsidies are you referring to?

[DonkeyApple]

AstonZagato said:

Interesting article on Uber

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/09/13/uber-and-...


Also, WeWork IPO cancelled. Last round of financing done at a $47bn valuation. Not enough demand today at $15-$20bn valuation. WeWork currently losing $2 for every $1 of revenue.

WeWork is a good example of the effect of revaluing correctly. It has gone from being a tech company to the reality of just being a Regus competitor for people whose trousers are too small. It highlights the risk to Tesla of being a successful and profitable car company versus being a tech business.