Tesla and Uber Unlikely to Survive (Vol. 2)

[JD]

Tuna said:

They're looking more and more like 'just' a car company.

The fact that the storage deployment is 136% year on year probably means as a ratio they are less of a car company this year than the last no?

[Gandahar]

The profit went down from $143m to $130m but the value of the company has increased by more than $10b in less than 6 hours.


Such is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in the promised land.


Only Boeing shareholders seem more mad hatterish at the moment.

[Smiljan]

JD said:

Smiljan said:

They're increasing capacity by another 100k this year to cope with that. Seems daft to deliberately build less cars than you can through a whole year........unless you can't shift them.

I think you have misread the information.

The text says current capacity of model 3 AND model Y combined at 400k pa

They haven't started selling the Y yet, and only started building it this month, so of course there are no sales figures for it yet.

It is deliberately vague I feel. 400k capacity but 100k of that not used a) Because Model Y doesn't exist or b) Because not enough orders to max out factory.

Either way that's a years worth of 100k capacity wasted.

Let's see this time next year if Freemont is running full tilt and chucking out 500k Y and 3 - 1370 cars a day.
They are capable, I've no doubt. It's the demand I'm not sure of.

[RobDickinson]

Smiljan said:

Either way that's a years worth of 100k capacity wasted.

No, no it isnt.

[Gandahar]

JD said:

Tuna said:

They're looking more and more like 'just' a car company.

The fact that the storage deployment is 136% year on year probably means as a ratio they are less of a car company this year than the last no?

They went from revenues of $372m to $436m in Q4 but cars brought in £6.1b so the energy side is really small in comparison.


Note that services and other brought in $520m in Q4 ...which is larger than solar. I believe services and other is related to servicing and finance on cars. So that should be added to the car side as well.

This mantra of "Tesla is not a car company, it's a tech company" has got out of hand, by people wanting it to be the next Apple or Google.

[Gandahar]

Smiljan said:

JD said:

Smiljan said:

They're increasing capacity by another 100k this year to cope with that. Seems daft to deliberately build less cars than you can through a whole year........unless you can't shift them.

I think you have misread the information.

The text says current capacity of model 3 AND model Y combined at 400k pa

They haven't started selling the Y yet, and only started building it this month, so of course there are no sales figures for it yet.

It is deliberately vague I feel. 400k capacity but 100k of that not used a) Because Model Y doesn't exist or b) Because not enough orders to max out factory.

Either way that's a years worth of 100k capacity wasted.

Let's see this time next year if Freemont is running full tilt and chucking out 500k Y and 3 - 1370 cars a day.
They are capable, I've no doubt. It's the demand I'm not sure of.

Tesla have guided

" For full year 2020, vehicle deliveries should comfortably exceed 500,000 units. Due to ramp of Model 3 in
Shanghai and Model Y in Fremont, production will likely outpace deliveries this year. Both solar and storage
deployments should grow at least 50% in 2020. "

Seems reasonable, but as you say lets see how demand goes. If they can keep those factories churning full tilt in 2020 and people are buying them then no problems ahead.

Even Tesla seem to think the capacity of the factories might be a bit too much.

This is all down to how the world economy does in 2020 rather than Tesla screwing up not being able to make cars though.

So in summary, Tesla think they can deliver well in excess of 500k and production will outstrip that. 600k ?

Edited by Gandahar on Wednesday 29th January 23:45

[JD]

Smiljan said:

Either way that's a years worth of 100k capacity wasted.

They started the line in January 2020, the sales figures are for 2019 - they are different years.

It's like saying they are wasting capacity at their factory in Germany which they haven't even built yet.

[Smiljan]

Got it. So capacity for year 2019 was 300k , 302k made. Year end 2019 says 2019 capacity was 400k moving to 500k in 2020 though,

Why mention they could have made that many if 100k of it was for a car they weren’t producing in 2019? Or is it they only just added 100k more capacity at the very end of 2019?

This article suggests 400k Model 3 plus another 100k Model Y for Fremont

https://electrek.co/2020/01/29/tesla-will-deliver-...

Edited by Smiljan on Thursday 30th January 06:07

[anonymous-user]

Tesla saying it is now self financing and pretty much cash flow positive from free on in is a significant support for the valuation

The upbeat future outlook seems more credible than previously

The valuations, on any traditional measure, are high. But no one has to buy either a Tesla or a Tesla share

[anonymous-user]

it is hard to get past this line

For 2019 the net income attributable to common stockholders: -$862m

[Tuna]

JPJPJP said:

The valuations, on any traditional measure, are high. But no one has to buy either a Tesla or a Tesla share

No, but the rolling debt is predicated on the company looking strong. Shares dropping will put pressure on that.

The capacity thing is strange. They had half a million pre-orders for the Model 3, yet produced only 300,000 last year? What happened to the others?

The expansion to China seems to be obscuring what's happening in the states. Are they planning a new factory in the US, or to remain at the current capacity for 2020?

[RobDickinson]

Ajay are you talking about?

[JD]

Smiljan said:

Got it. So capacity for year 2019 was 300k , 302k made. Year end 2019 says 2019 capacity was 400k moving to 500k in 2020 though,

Capacity in 2019 was 300k.

It says current capacity of 400k, it is currently 2020 not 2019.

It is moving toward 500k in this same year.

[Dave Hedgehog]

Smiljan said:

Let's see this time next year if Freemont is running full tilt and chucking out 500k Y and 3 - 1370 cars a day.
They are capable, I've no doubt. It's the demand I'm not sure of.

Demand will grow year on year, every year people become more environmentally aware and the extreme weather events and fires will help this. Government polices either at the local or national level will punish fossil cars ever more as the increased uptake on BEVs proves their viability to politicians.

At the moment BEVs are a under a % of global car sale, the potential for growth is enormous and they are probably 15-20 years away from reaching market saturation like the smart phone market currently is.

[jjwilde]

Really nice. Kinda wish I'd waited to sell but never mind, a profit is a profit and all that.

My year off begins! I'm going to Norway soon and I want to rent a long range M3 and drive up to the Arctic circle, can anyone recommend a way of renting EVs in Norway which is in English? None of the usual rental firms have EVs which surprised me.

[Dave Hedgehog]

jjwilde said:

Really nice. Kinda wish I'd waited to sell but never mind, a profit is a profit and all that.

My year off begins! I'm going to Norway soon and I want to rent a long range M3 and drive up to the Arctic circle, can anyone recommend a way of renting EVs in Norway which is in English? None of the usual rental firms have EVs which surprised me.

Tesla Bjorn would be the guy to ask

https://twitter.com/bjornnyland?lang=en

[BJWoods]

this seems very dumb, kill of the network, before it has grown!?


IONITY, Europe’s network for high-power-charging of electric vehicles, announced it will raise its charging prices by over 500 percent effective January 31, 2020. At that price, it will be three times more expensive than a Tesla supercharger in Europe, which average €0.25 ($0.28) per kilowatt-hour, and more than double the price of gasoline there. IONITY is a joint venture founded by the BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company, and Volkswagen Group with Audi and Porsche. Its objective is to build an extensive 350 kilowatt High Power Charging network for electric vehicles to facilitate long-distance travel in Europe. It currently has 202 charging stations in 17 countries and plans to double this to 400 locations in 24 countries this year.

https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/interna...

[anonymous-user]

500k deliveries for 2020 has been guidance for about 5 years! So to answer earlier question about why price has gone up. I think it's less to do with good news, rather more, absence of bad news. It wasn't long ago everyone was arguing bankruptcy was imminent cos Tesla fired its sales staff.

Easy to forget how many analysts rubbished the idea of tesla hitting low end of guidance of becoming cash flow positive.

And now people are starting to have more confidence in Tesla's investor relations commentary.

Consumer lies, FSD etc, are still fair game.

[Burwood]

JPJPJP said:

it is hard to get past this line

For 2019 the net income attributable to common stockholders: -$862m

Precisely. Real GAAP numbers are posted but kept quiet. It's another loss and a large one for the year. Focus on operating earnings and ignore the debt mountain. I hand it to Tesla. They produce a great car. It needs improvement in areas but clearly they are in the zone. The financials just don't stack up. It's a hugely speculative investment and way over bought in my opinion.

[anonymous-user]

Isn't it deliberate to be cash flow neutral? Q1 dragged down the year but YoY it's looking more even.

If Tesla were showing large profits, that would mean they are not reinvesting? Operating margins are positive.

Also if Tesla had decided to recognise FSD revenue it would have been a full year profit.

ETA None of this justifies a share price over 300. But taken in isolation, lack of profit tells us little.

Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 30th January 11:49