Would UK be ready for 2030 new petrol car ban?

[dgswk]

Nothing like setting a challenge.....

"Boris Johnson is poised to announce that the government is bringing forward by a decade a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars to 2030 from 2040, the BBC understands.

It's understood that new hybrid cars – those with electric motors as well as engines – will get a stay of execution: they will be banned from 2035."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-54937277

[dgswk]

LimJim said:

Bobtherallyfan said:

Amazing how many people seem to think local air pollution is all about cars, yet go home to their nice log burners, sit and plan their next holiday flight on their latest phone, with the tumble drier on in the utility room. Then sit down to the lovely meal with the imported veg and the intensively farmed meat.

Good job you included log burners in this list!

F**k, I'm doing all of the above right now (apart from the meat bit) whilst charging my EV......

Why have we gone EV? Cause it works out cheaper overall for our daily commute (we lease cars) taking into account fuel. Green credentials? Don't know really, someone has to be an earlier adopter I suppose. Nothing else serious on the horizon for a good few years (Hydrogen etc.).

[dgswk]

Richard-D said:

Which is the only real reason you'll get anyone to change. You're not doing anything uniquely bad there. In fact you're way ahead of the blinkered side of the EV argument as you're willing to see it.

100% I'm not doing anything bad, selfish in my logic? Maybe, but we all human, and actually if it helps drive change as a consequence then its a bonus. I don't believe for one minute, with the batteries, that its green, but its a step on the way to something better than oil. And no, you're not having my woodburner as I live in the semi-sticks with access to more windfall timber than I could ever burn.

We didn't test drive our EV, just did the maths. As it happens (luckily!) it is SOOOO much nicer and easier to drive for a daily commute than any petrol / diesel normal car we've had. And we've had some nice premium new stuff over the years as company cars etc.

Its the same reason I moved from a petrol company car to a diesel one back in the early 2000's. At the time, Govt thinking was diesel was better and encouraged it, then u-turned. The same will happen with EV / Batteries when there is a better alternative, and I'll probably swap then for the tax breaks or whatever scheme they invent to tempt early adopters. Got a feeling it will be a while though.

Govt have just given the notional green light to Sizewell C Nuclear if anyone has noticed that in the news, and Rolls Royce are entering the UK Nuclear Market too, after Hitachi / Horizon dropped out at Wylfa last year. There's a message there whether you like it or not. And yeah, post Covid, its a mechanism for pumping money into the economy - rather than just hand it out - medium/long term investment in infrastructure to create jobs. IMHO, a better investment than HS2, but whatever, they must have their logic, and I'm not into the politics of that or new nuclear.

All the petrol stations out there will need partial conversion to rapid charge facilities (with Cafe's for something to do for 20mins), Kerbside / Streetlight charging will need to be introduced, chargers at the village shop, community centre, swathes of home charging points. Some businesses, and thus their employees, will do well, which will ripple through the economy and if our dates are earlier than any other countries, we will export the knowhow.

Its massive - absolutely massive and a huge ask by 2030. But even if it was 2050, we'd still all moan and say never, so aim high. And if there is demand - and there certainly will be in 10 years time by the sounds of things - the big players will do it, they will have to evolve, and now a lot quicker than they thought.

Just need the Govt to know their limits, invest the cash but then stay out of it. On the basis that the useless f**kers cant even roll out Smart Meters without screwing it up, I very much doubt they could deliver nationwide EV infrastructure.

Interesting times!

[dgswk]

Certainly not selling my toy ICE for a while either, I'd go as far as saying it would be coming with me into retirement after this, but I fear the dashboard tech will have dated ferociously by then and be unrepairable when it goes bang. So I'm kind of thinking Exige Sport 350, with mostly analogue dials and an old fashioned head unit might be the way to go while you still can.....

[dgswk]

Or maybe, as you've banned it, you drive the petrol / diesel providers to invest and deliver the infrastructure, otherwise they are dead and buried businesses along with Woolworths and half of the high street. And the stockmarket won't stand for that, they are too big globally.

Until such a stance is taken, apart from dabbling in the charger market (BP, looking at you) and a token effort at diversification into renewables so it looks good on the annual CSR bks, most of them will carry on regardless. Which is why the network currently is so crap.

So for the time being, Govt "subsidises" early adopting Joe Public - ie. low / no tax, but with a long term plan to charge per mile once there is no going back. Probably hands out a few green grants too along the way and some corporation tax breaks too. Different scale, and nowhere near as complex, but not so different to Solar and the feed-in tariffs.

Joe Public = Range is crap, too expensive, nowhere to charge
Oil Company = I'm not investing in Infra, still selling fuel thanks, but I'll do my token bit so we look good
Car Company = Volumes not high enough, not really investing in Technology
And repeat.

Govt = Big Picture, we have to do something and drive demand, or we will be in this chicken and egg situation until the oil is gone. And the post Covid green tax breaks look good on the manifesto as a bit of a bonus.

[dgswk]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

But life ain't like that, tax is used to dissuade, to punish, in this case the breaks will go to EV whilst old school gets taxed. Not fair, but how it is....

Edited to add: And repeat when (if ever, never) they get Hydrogen, they'll tax EV accordingly.

[dgswk]

Bobtherallyfan said:

If the Govt likes to tax ‘old school’ ICE cars, then how come they don’t charge for 25 yr old cars or even insist on MOTs. EV drivers will have to fork out in the future as ICE revenues fall.

Because classics are a minority, almost irrelevant in the big picture. But I absolutely agree, per mile charging will kick in once there’s no going back, that tech has been with us for a while. Pay for 12, 15 or 25k miles upfront and it’ll be adjusted accordingly.

They just can’t do it right now until the EV purchase costs fall relative to income etc etc

[dgswk]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Agreed, that’s its primary mainstream purpose, but it is also a very useful and powerful tool to influence and kickstart change. Why is that 5.0 SVR Rangey or X5 now £500 plus a year for road tax? £500x say 20,000 cars makes sod all difference in Sunak’s pocket. It’s about stopping every man and his dog buying one, a 10 year old one, and slowly pricing them off the road. Otherwise it would be £30 to cover the admin charge.

[dgswk]

Roma101 said:

I think it is fair to say there are a few issues to sort out between now and 2030.

Thats an understatement, this thread has moved on!

I commute 200 miles a day (regularly - twice a week), carrying PPE, laptop and all that stuff. And I travel to Cornwall regularly - sometimes twice a month - 235 each way, but stop over. My days of doing nearly 500 miles a day are well over, it got dangerous with a 6 hour day thrown in the mix.

I even spent 2 years commuting to Belfast twice weekly, but flew as its just too far and I got very efficient with my cabin baggage and just-in-time checkin. When I was on the tools, we used to work all over Europe - took a bit of planning, but chucked by tool case in the hold, and big stuff was shipped in advance. Including sets of step ladders. You try buying a set of steps in central Athens or Riyadh at 9am on a Monday morning after just flying in. That was 20 years ago, things have moved on, including next day shipping.

We already have one EV for my wife's 70 mile a day (every day) commute plus running around at the weekend. A leased Zoe with 235 miles (150-180 real). I'm seriously considering going Tesla / Taycan to cover mine - or hand in my co car allowance and take an M3 Long Range / e-Niro or similar.

Yes, very very expensive I accept, but that's right now, in 10 years time, the tech, the range, the infrastructure will develop and filter down.

I'd even be willing to wager that a 2030 e-Focus or e-Mondeo has circa 300-350 miles of real range (okay - 225 when driven like I used to drive when I was an engineer with a boot full of gear). And inflation adjusted, probably not a million miles off what list is today.

And BP, Texaco, Shell, Exxon and the like will have to provide the rapid charge 20min/Costa stop infrastructure or their downstream forecourt businesses are f**ked. Along with a good chunk of upstream.

Edited by dgswk on Monday 16th November 20:41

[dgswk]

More on the BBC tonight, discussing how it forms part of the Carbon Neutral plan by 2050:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54978454

[dgswk]

MiseryStreak said:

I’m betting that in less than 10 years it will become socially unacceptable to drive a non-hybrid/electric car.

If you drive anything that looks expensive enough to be replaced by a new Leaf, then you will be castigated. Drive it past a school and Karens will shout at you ‘Think of the children!’

I’m not against electric cars at all, far from it. We need to make this transition to cleaner transport. There’s no reason for soulless stboxes to be spewing out CO2 just for commuting etc.

I’m just not looking forward to the ill informed virtue signalling from hypocritical morons. By this I mean the ones happy to run their kids to school in an autonomous road bk, as they always hated driving, but having a much larger carbon footprint in every other way.

It’s going to be a tough time for motoring enthusiasts. This might be the decade to try out all those cars you never had the chance to, before they are consigned to the scrapheap. Need to make a list.

Anyway, a pointless bet, but it’s sometimes tough to let go of the past. I love seeing a proper classic on the road and this is going to become a rarer and rarer sight. I’ll have to keep going to Goodwood to get not only my annual fix of Castrol R, but unburnt petrol too.

I dont think it will be a tough time per se, just very very different, and maybe - just maybe, we are lucky to be able to be part of the biggest revolution in public transport since Henry Ford came along. At the moment, there is no real choice on EV, but it will have to change. Ford, BMW, Audi etc.'s whole business models depend on selling reasobaly priced cars to the masses with a few high end high margin cars here and there. Think of the scrappage schemes in 2040 - 2045 as the last of the bog standard ICE hit end of life and are taxed off the road.

But I'm with you, I'm thinking Exige Sport 350 or an Elise maybe the way to go. Analogue enough to be able to get it repaired for years and years (no touchscreens, replaceable head unit, Toyota block), valuable and special enough to warrant keeping, garaging and paying £25/litre for fuel for in 2050!

[dgswk]

Toaster Pilot said:

There is absolutely nothing suggested by the ban of the sale of NEW petrol and diesel cars from 2030 and hybrids from 2035 that suggests you’d need to swap a S-Max for a Twizy under any circumstances. You’re being hysterical for effect just like all of the “OMG THE GRID WILL NEVER COPE” “YOU’RE PRICING THE POOR OFF THE ROADS” “EVERYONE IN THE U.K. LIVES SOMEWHERE WITHOUT OFF STREET PARKING” retards.

I'm with Toaster Pilot. Future will be here sooner than you think and it will be fine. #BatteryHeads #RangeMatters

[dgswk]

GT119 said:

Longboarder1967 said:

The 2030 ban is indeed premature with regard to industrial strategy or the lack of it. UK car manufacture is based on ICE cars as far as I'm aware for the most part and this populist move to be the first to ban ICE cars exposes a major UK manufacturing industry to a potentially significant disadvantage if the rest of the world doesn't follow suit. In my humble opinion (and I realise that many on this thread think I'm wrong) the 2030 ban will not happen because it's a government edict misaligned with medium term interests at an economic, industrial and individual motorist level. Like so many things that are happening with our government at the moment it simply isn't fully thought through. Successful initiatives in our society are usually a gentle balance of market forces and government policy whereas this 2030 edict is a sledgehammer approach that will (in my humble opinion) flounder against the many challenges that will arise. Is this new ICE car ban plan achievable? Yes, but not by 2030. Wait and see.

But they just discovered high grade Lithium in Cornwall!

And if anywhere needs a lift outside of the 1 mile wide tourist infested / dependant (insert your view here) coastal strip, its Cornwall. There are a number of exploratory efforts going on around the old industrial mining centres looking at deep thermal brines as sources, as well as the obvious geothermal stuff.

[dgswk]

Justin Case said:

Good news about Cornish lithium. There was also good news about battery R&D and eventually production in Coventry, once the home of the motor industry but now unfortunately not one of the more prosperous parts of Britain. This was announced last year, but the media are only interested in spats between politicians so you probably haven't heard about it

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/coventry-uk-battery-...

Another area of the UK that could really benefit from investment in this technology. Alongside the NE Coast which is being earmarked as a potential hydrogen tech centre building on the old North Sea infrastructure. And of course Cumbria, Suffolk, Anglesey and Somerset for new nuclear.