EVs... no one wants them!
Discussion
CG2020UK said:
Let’s not kid ourselves all car manufacturers will have healthy margins on cars they produce it’s just how the have to account for costs eg:R&D that gets the media saying they aren’t making money.
If they didn’t make money on a model they wouldn’t sell the model simple as that.
Unless you are run by idiots like the old British car brand management. The original mini, such a huge sales success, lost money on every car sold.If they didn’t make money on a model they wouldn’t sell the model simple as that.
CG2020UK said:
Let’s not kid ourselves all car manufacturers will have healthy margins on cars they produce it’s just how the have to account for costs eg:R&D that gets the media saying they aren’t making money.
If they didn’t make money on a model they wouldn’t sell the model simple as that.
I think quite a few company accountants would disagree with you on that.If they didn’t make money on a model they wouldn’t sell the model simple as that.
I’m no fan of Elon Musk personally, but his production and supply chain innovation is as impressive as the technical advances of the cars. Sometimes you need that kind of disruption to shake up a stagnant industry.
Yep, look how terribly VW group are doing.
Sales revenue up 12 percent year-on-year to EUR 279.2 billion; decline in vehicles delivered was offset by positive product mix effects and price positioning; order bank remains at a high level of 1.8 million vehicles
Operating profit before special items increased 13 percent to EUR 22.5 billion; operating profit margin improved to 8.1 percent due to strong mix and pricing
Automotive net liquidity improved to EUR 43 billion including the proceeds from the Porsche IPO amounting to 16.1 billion; net cash flow contributed with EUR 4.8 billion to the strong net liquidity position
Deliveries of battery-electric vehicles (BEV) up by 26 percent totalling 572,100 units in 2022, share in group deliveries increases to 7 percent; Volkswagen on track for 20 percent BEV share of total deliveries in 2025 and 50 percent in 2030
Board of Management and Supervisory Board propose dividend of EUR 8.70 per ordinary share and EUR 8.76 per preferred share, payout ratio rises to 29.4 percent (25.4 percent)
Group Outlook for 2023: deliveries expected to rise to about 9.5 million vehicles; sales revenues to increase by between 10 and 15 percent primarily driven by the strong order backlog on hand, operating return on sales to be in the range of 7.5 and 8.5 percent, with a strong increase in reported net cash flow
Arno Antlitz, CFO & COO of Volkswagen Group, said: “Today's results provide more evidence of solid financial foundations on which we consistently implement our strategy.”
Volkswagen Group delivered a robust performance in 2022 with profitability improving despite ongoing supply disruptions and headwinds from higher raw material and energy costs. This was supported by continued pricing discipline, cost progress, and driven by a stronger mix which helped to increase operating profit before special items by EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 22.5 billion. The Group made significant progress in the execution of its strategy in 2022 in particular with the successful Porsche AG IPO, the launch of the Group’s battery company PowerCo with the ground-breaking of the first cell gigafactory in Salzgitter, the start of production of the all-electric ID.4 in the USA as well as the partnership with Horizon Robotics to further strengthening competitiveness in China.
Overall revenues increased by 11.6 percent to EUR 279.2 billion, supported by sales of better equipped vehicles as well as an improved mix and continued pricing discipline. Deliveries of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) increased significantly, while the total number of vehicles delivered slightly declined by 7 percent because of semiconductor shortages, disruptions in the logistics chain and supply stoppages in China. A total of 572,100 BEVs were delivered to customers, 26 percent more than in the previous year which demonstrates the popularity of the Group’s unique BEV model range. The BEV share of deliveries thus grew to around 7 percent.
Operating profit before special items rose to EUR 22.5 (20.0) billion, corresponding to an operating return on sales before special items of 8.1 (8.0) percent. Profit before tax increased by 9.5 percent to EUR 22 (20.1) billion. Profit after tax increased by 2.6 percent to 15.8 (15.4) billion euros.
Automotive net cash flow amounted to EUR 4.8 billion (EUR 8.6 billion). The deviation is mainly attributable to the unstable supply situation throughout 2022 and disruptions in the logistics chains, particularly at the end of the year. As a result, working capital and in particular inventories of finished goods, raw materials and supplies at the end of the year were significantly higher than planned. This increase in working capital at the end of 2022 is anticipated to be largely reversed during the year 2023.
The net liquidity of the Automotive Division on December 31, 2022 increased to EUR 43 billion, including proceeds of EUR 16.1 billion from the successful IPO of Porsche AG in September 2022. EUR 9.5 billion were paid as special dividend to shareholders in January 2023.
The Board of Management and Supervisory Board are proposing a dividend of EUR 8.70 per ordinary share and EUR 8.76 per preferred share, representing an increase of 1.20 euros per ordinary and preferred share respectively compared to the previous year's figures. This equals to a payout ratio of 29.4 percent. Earnings per ordinary share amounted to EUR 29.63 (29.59) and earnings per preferred share were at EUR 29.69 (29.65).
Sales revenue up 12 percent year-on-year to EUR 279.2 billion; decline in vehicles delivered was offset by positive product mix effects and price positioning; order bank remains at a high level of 1.8 million vehicles
Operating profit before special items increased 13 percent to EUR 22.5 billion; operating profit margin improved to 8.1 percent due to strong mix and pricing
Automotive net liquidity improved to EUR 43 billion including the proceeds from the Porsche IPO amounting to 16.1 billion; net cash flow contributed with EUR 4.8 billion to the strong net liquidity position
Deliveries of battery-electric vehicles (BEV) up by 26 percent totalling 572,100 units in 2022, share in group deliveries increases to 7 percent; Volkswagen on track for 20 percent BEV share of total deliveries in 2025 and 50 percent in 2030
Board of Management and Supervisory Board propose dividend of EUR 8.70 per ordinary share and EUR 8.76 per preferred share, payout ratio rises to 29.4 percent (25.4 percent)
Group Outlook for 2023: deliveries expected to rise to about 9.5 million vehicles; sales revenues to increase by between 10 and 15 percent primarily driven by the strong order backlog on hand, operating return on sales to be in the range of 7.5 and 8.5 percent, with a strong increase in reported net cash flow
Arno Antlitz, CFO & COO of Volkswagen Group, said: “Today's results provide more evidence of solid financial foundations on which we consistently implement our strategy.”
Volkswagen Group delivered a robust performance in 2022 with profitability improving despite ongoing supply disruptions and headwinds from higher raw material and energy costs. This was supported by continued pricing discipline, cost progress, and driven by a stronger mix which helped to increase operating profit before special items by EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 22.5 billion. The Group made significant progress in the execution of its strategy in 2022 in particular with the successful Porsche AG IPO, the launch of the Group’s battery company PowerCo with the ground-breaking of the first cell gigafactory in Salzgitter, the start of production of the all-electric ID.4 in the USA as well as the partnership with Horizon Robotics to further strengthening competitiveness in China.
Overall revenues increased by 11.6 percent to EUR 279.2 billion, supported by sales of better equipped vehicles as well as an improved mix and continued pricing discipline. Deliveries of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) increased significantly, while the total number of vehicles delivered slightly declined by 7 percent because of semiconductor shortages, disruptions in the logistics chain and supply stoppages in China. A total of 572,100 BEVs were delivered to customers, 26 percent more than in the previous year which demonstrates the popularity of the Group’s unique BEV model range. The BEV share of deliveries thus grew to around 7 percent.
Operating profit before special items rose to EUR 22.5 (20.0) billion, corresponding to an operating return on sales before special items of 8.1 (8.0) percent. Profit before tax increased by 9.5 percent to EUR 22 (20.1) billion. Profit after tax increased by 2.6 percent to 15.8 (15.4) billion euros.
Automotive net cash flow amounted to EUR 4.8 billion (EUR 8.6 billion). The deviation is mainly attributable to the unstable supply situation throughout 2022 and disruptions in the logistics chains, particularly at the end of the year. As a result, working capital and in particular inventories of finished goods, raw materials and supplies at the end of the year were significantly higher than planned. This increase in working capital at the end of 2022 is anticipated to be largely reversed during the year 2023.
The net liquidity of the Automotive Division on December 31, 2022 increased to EUR 43 billion, including proceeds of EUR 16.1 billion from the successful IPO of Porsche AG in September 2022. EUR 9.5 billion were paid as special dividend to shareholders in January 2023.
The Board of Management and Supervisory Board are proposing a dividend of EUR 8.70 per ordinary share and EUR 8.76 per preferred share, representing an increase of 1.20 euros per ordinary and preferred share respectively compared to the previous year's figures. This equals to a payout ratio of 29.4 percent. Earnings per ordinary share amounted to EUR 29.63 (29.59) and earnings per preferred share were at EUR 29.69 (29.65).
Chipper said:
What we are all seeing is the legacy motors literally dying in front of our eyes. They can’t ramp up production to match Tesla . Jesus they can’t even do a wireless update on a vehicle ! I don’t doubt there are a lot of people who don’t like them but the fact you have an id3 st £40000 shows they are so bloody stuffed . In a few months they will have to reduce prices AT A LOSS to get rid of stock. This is before Tesla launches their new platform which is 50 % cheaper to manufacturer!!!
Legacy companies tend not to use their customers as Beta testers.https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-3627...
And here is Stellantis.
Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%
Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution
Net revenues of €179.6 billion, up 18% compared to 2021 Pro Forma(1) reflecting strong net pricing, favorable vehicle mix and positive FX translation effects
Net profit of €16.8 billion, up 26%(1)
Adjusted operating income(2) up 29%(1) to €23.3 billion, with 13.0% margin, exceeds 2030 target of >12%; all segments contributing to both top and bottom line growth
Industrial free cash flows(3) of €10.8 billion, up 78%(1), showing early progress toward 2030 objective of >€20 billion
Net cash synergies of €7.1 billion, more than two years ahead of €5.0 billion annual steady state target
Strong balance sheet, with Industrial available liquidity at €61.3 billion
No. 1 EU30 Commercial Vehicles BEV sales, No. 2 EU30 Overall BEV sales, No. 1 U.S. PHEV sales
First U.S. BEV, Ram ProMaster, arrives 2023
23 BEV nameplates now in market, 9 additional BEVs in 2023
€4.2 billion ordinary dividend corresponding to €1.34 per share to be paid, subject to shareholder approval
Board approved program to buyback company shares for a value of up to €1.5 billion, to be executed in the open market by end 2023
All financial comparisons are to FY 2021 Pro Forma(1)
Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%
Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution
Net revenues of €179.6 billion, up 18% compared to 2021 Pro Forma(1) reflecting strong net pricing, favorable vehicle mix and positive FX translation effects
Net profit of €16.8 billion, up 26%(1)
Adjusted operating income(2) up 29%(1) to €23.3 billion, with 13.0% margin, exceeds 2030 target of >12%; all segments contributing to both top and bottom line growth
Industrial free cash flows(3) of €10.8 billion, up 78%(1), showing early progress toward 2030 objective of >€20 billion
Net cash synergies of €7.1 billion, more than two years ahead of €5.0 billion annual steady state target
Strong balance sheet, with Industrial available liquidity at €61.3 billion
No. 1 EU30 Commercial Vehicles BEV sales, No. 2 EU30 Overall BEV sales, No. 1 U.S. PHEV sales
First U.S. BEV, Ram ProMaster, arrives 2023
23 BEV nameplates now in market, 9 additional BEVs in 2023
€4.2 billion ordinary dividend corresponding to €1.34 per share to be paid, subject to shareholder approval
Board approved program to buyback company shares for a value of up to €1.5 billion, to be executed in the open market by end 2023
All financial comparisons are to FY 2021 Pro Forma(1)
soupdragon1 said:
You keep using phrases like 'I'll say it again, I'll repeat so you understand...'
Yet you fail to listen yourself
Do you know anything about marketing/branding?
Tesla, to hit 20m cars or whatever, need to transition from a desirable brand to the bargain brand. That is both difficult and risky. You can go broke on a transition like that.
People spend more than they really need to on houses, cars, watches, clothes, groceries, holidays etc etc.
Moving their brand from desirable to budget is risky.
Price is hugely important. Its clear you understand that. However you fail to understand the rest of the very complex nature of the consumer.
The amazing Tesla story is actually over already. You can come back and ram this down my throat in 12 months if you want to put a note in your diary or something. But it's over. They've peaked.
They've already exhausted all the low hanging fruit. If you want to touch every postcode/zipcode on the planet, like VW for example, that'll cost a small fortune to get that market penetration. Tesla bulls forecast it will happen, but they haven't worked out the cost.
I seen the very same story with Ocado here in the UK. New kid on the block. Got all the low hanging fruit but once you try and scale to reach every postcode, the business model falls apart somewhat, and you risk losing money due to the opex increases against a flat revenue model. They lost £500m this year and a share price graph that looks very much like Tesla. People ranted and raved how good Ocado was and here we are, they are now nursing huge loses on their precious stock prediction.
There is no magic wand to defeat these facts. Tesla need to go to many more countries to find growth and it's just not as easy when you step outside US, China and Europe.
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is.
Tesla sold 74,402 China-made EVs in February, up 32% year over year. They are the biggest selling car now in California including ICE . The reason they have reduced the prices is to squeeze the market but importantly they can and still make healthy profits. Do you think that VW will reduce the price of the ID3 in a few months? You have stated before that VW arent even worried about Tesla. Even BYD have had to reduce their prices to compete . VW will have to drop prices to compete. The pain has only just started. “ Tesla story is actually already over “ . That Soup will be remembered on pistonheads ! Yet you fail to listen yourself
Do you know anything about marketing/branding?
Tesla, to hit 20m cars or whatever, need to transition from a desirable brand to the bargain brand. That is both difficult and risky. You can go broke on a transition like that.
People spend more than they really need to on houses, cars, watches, clothes, groceries, holidays etc etc.
Moving their brand from desirable to budget is risky.
Price is hugely important. Its clear you understand that. However you fail to understand the rest of the very complex nature of the consumer.
The amazing Tesla story is actually over already. You can come back and ram this down my throat in 12 months if you want to put a note in your diary or something. But it's over. They've peaked.
They've already exhausted all the low hanging fruit. If you want to touch every postcode/zipcode on the planet, like VW for example, that'll cost a small fortune to get that market penetration. Tesla bulls forecast it will happen, but they haven't worked out the cost.
I seen the very same story with Ocado here in the UK. New kid on the block. Got all the low hanging fruit but once you try and scale to reach every postcode, the business model falls apart somewhat, and you risk losing money due to the opex increases against a flat revenue model. They lost £500m this year and a share price graph that looks very much like Tesla. People ranted and raved how good Ocado was and here we are, they are now nursing huge loses on their precious stock prediction.
There is no magic wand to defeat these facts. Tesla need to go to many more countries to find growth and it's just not as easy when you step outside US, China and Europe.
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is.
ChocolateFrog said:
From what I've seen, a resounding yes.
Quite depressing from an enthusiast POV. They're the new white Audi A4, another trend I never really got.
Maybe a year ago, Musk has screwed up with Twitter which has tanked the Tesla share price as a result as he scrabbles for cash and destroys his brand image.Quite depressing from an enthusiast POV. They're the new white Audi A4, another trend I never really got.
VW said they won’t be joining a Tesla price war, thet their customers pay for a premium badge they believe is priced competitively.
You are missing the important point here ;
For Tesla EV sales are all or nothing, if demand for EV falls off the legacy makers still make big profits on their ICE and hybrids and can continue to sell hybrids until 2035 - they don’t have to push for EV adoption at the speed Tesla does as they have another 12 years to get their product right, and they also sell into a global market not just the EV hotspots as well a commercial vehicles.
They have billions of surplus cash even accounting for the EV investment and VW.
Anything that threatens the domestic German, French and a Italian auto makers will see tariffs slapped on Chinese imports.
You are missing the important point here ;
For Tesla EV sales are all or nothing, if demand for EV falls off the legacy makers still make big profits on their ICE and hybrids and can continue to sell hybrids until 2035 - they don’t have to push for EV adoption at the speed Tesla does as they have another 12 years to get their product right, and they also sell into a global market not just the EV hotspots as well a commercial vehicles.
They have billions of surplus cash even accounting for the EV investment and VW.
Anything that threatens the domestic German, French and a Italian auto makers will see tariffs slapped on Chinese imports.
MisterBigglesworth said:
VW said they won’t be joining a Tesla price war, thet their customers pay for a premium badge they believe is priced competitively.
You are missing the important point here ;
For Tesla EV sales are all or nothing, if demand for EV falls off the legacy makers still make big profits on their ICE and hybrids and can continue to sell hybrids until 2035 - they don’t have to push for EV adoption at the speed Tesla does as they have another 12 years to get their product right, and they also sell into a global market not just the EV hotspots as well a commercial vehicles.
They have billions of surplus cash even accounting for the EV investment and VW.
Anything that threatens the domestic German, French and a Italian auto makers will see tariffs slapped on Chinese imports.
Toyota have just lost their CEO because of Hybrids and I’ve just wept because VW have said “ they won’t be joining a Tesla price war” WTF . BYD have just dropped their pricing to compete in China. FORD have dropped and are selling at a loss to compete but VW are “ we aren’t even bothered. Forget visiting this in 12 months . Within 6 months VW will be dropping their prices to compete. You are missing the important point here ;
For Tesla EV sales are all or nothing, if demand for EV falls off the legacy makers still make big profits on their ICE and hybrids and can continue to sell hybrids until 2035 - they don’t have to push for EV adoption at the speed Tesla does as they have another 12 years to get their product right, and they also sell into a global market not just the EV hotspots as well a commercial vehicles.
They have billions of surplus cash even accounting for the EV investment and VW.
Anything that threatens the domestic German, French and a Italian auto makers will see tariffs slapped on Chinese imports.
A judging by my friend it won’t come soon enough because nobody wants to touch their id3
Anyway, back to EV's,
Was in BMW today, 72 plate i3 with all bells and whistles, 1800 miles, £40k (!)
72 plate same spec different colour, 10k miles, £30k.
"We have a variety of promotions on both of these, from 0% finance, extra on any part exchange, and special discounts of up to 10% off, and you can combine possibly all of them".
Was in BMW today, 72 plate i3 with all bells and whistles, 1800 miles, £40k (!)
72 plate same spec different colour, 10k miles, £30k.
"We have a variety of promotions on both of these, from 0% finance, extra on any part exchange, and special discounts of up to 10% off, and you can combine possibly all of them".
MisterBigglesworth said:
And here is Stellantis.
Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%
Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution
Net revenues of €179.6 billion, up 18% compared to 2021 Pro Forma(1) reflecting strong net pricing, favorable vehicle mix and positive FX translation effects
Net profit of €16.8 billion, up 26%(1)
Adjusted operating income(2) up 29%(1) to €23.3 billion, with 13.0% margin, exceeds 2030 target of >12%; all segments contributing to both top and bottom line growth
Industrial free cash flows(3) of €10.8 billion, up 78%(1), showing early progress toward 2030 objective of >€20 billion
Net cash synergies of €7.1 billion, more than two years ahead of €5.0 billion annual steady state target
Strong balance sheet, with Industrial available liquidity at €61.3 billion
No. 1 EU30 Commercial Vehicles BEV sales, No. 2 EU30 Overall BEV sales, No. 1 U.S. PHEV sales
First U.S. BEV, Ram ProMaster, arrives 2023
23 BEV nameplates now in market, 9 additional BEVs in 2023
€4.2 billion ordinary dividend corresponding to €1.34 per share to be paid, subject to shareholder approval
Board approved program to buyback company shares for a value of up to €1.5 billion, to be executed in the open market by end 2023
All financial comparisons are to FY 2021 Pro Forma(1)
Not forgetting TVR'sStellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%
Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution
Net revenues of €179.6 billion, up 18% compared to 2021 Pro Forma(1) reflecting strong net pricing, favorable vehicle mix and positive FX translation effects
Net profit of €16.8 billion, up 26%(1)
Adjusted operating income(2) up 29%(1) to €23.3 billion, with 13.0% margin, exceeds 2030 target of >12%; all segments contributing to both top and bottom line growth
Industrial free cash flows(3) of €10.8 billion, up 78%(1), showing early progress toward 2030 objective of >€20 billion
Net cash synergies of €7.1 billion, more than two years ahead of €5.0 billion annual steady state target
Strong balance sheet, with Industrial available liquidity at €61.3 billion
No. 1 EU30 Commercial Vehicles BEV sales, No. 2 EU30 Overall BEV sales, No. 1 U.S. PHEV sales
First U.S. BEV, Ram ProMaster, arrives 2023
23 BEV nameplates now in market, 9 additional BEVs in 2023
€4.2 billion ordinary dividend corresponding to €1.34 per share to be paid, subject to shareholder approval
Board approved program to buyback company shares for a value of up to €1.5 billion, to be executed in the open market by end 2023
All financial comparisons are to FY 2021 Pro Forma(1)
£0.
500TORQUES said:
Legacy companies tend not to use their customers as Beta testers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-3627...
Yes but you do know it was a software update that was required. Not a recall as the press stated.https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-recalls-3627...
Chipper said:
Yes but you do know it was a software update that was required. Not a recall as the press stated.
It was a recall, the fix method doesn't affect the fact it is an official forced recall issue, which is a government controlled process.The USA in particular take recall issues seriously.
Chipper said:
soupdragon1 said:
You keep using phrases like 'I'll say it again, I'll repeat so you understand...'
Yet you fail to listen yourself
Do you know anything about marketing/branding?
Tesla, to hit 20m cars or whatever, need to transition from a desirable brand to the bargain brand. That is both difficult and risky. You can go broke on a transition like that.
People spend more than they really need to on houses, cars, watches, clothes, groceries, holidays etc etc.
Moving their brand from desirable to budget is risky.
Price is hugely important. Its clear you understand that. However you fail to understand the rest of the very complex nature of the consumer.
The amazing Tesla story is actually over already. You can come back and ram this down my throat in 12 months if you want to put a note in your diary or something. But it's over. They've peaked.
They've already exhausted all the low hanging fruit. If you want to touch every postcode/zipcode on the planet, like VW for example, that'll cost a small fortune to get that market penetration. Tesla bulls forecast it will happen, but they haven't worked out the cost.
I seen the very same story with Ocado here in the UK. New kid on the block. Got all the low hanging fruit but once you try and scale to reach every postcode, the business model falls apart somewhat, and you risk losing money due to the opex increases against a flat revenue model. They lost £500m this year and a share price graph that looks very much like Tesla. People ranted and raved how good Ocado was and here we are, they are now nursing huge loses on their precious stock prediction.
There is no magic wand to defeat these facts. Tesla need to go to many more countries to find growth and it's just not as easy when you step outside US, China and Europe.
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is.
Tesla sold 74,402 China-made EVs in February, up 32% year over year. They are the biggest selling car now in California including ICE . The reason they have reduced the prices is to squeeze the market but importantly they can and still make healthy profits. Do you think that VW will reduce the price of the ID3 in a few months? You have stated before that VW arent even worried about Tesla. Even BYD have had to reduce their prices to compete . VW will have to drop prices to compete. The pain has only just started. “ Tesla story is actually already over “ . That Soup will be remembered on pistonheads ! Yet you fail to listen yourself
Do you know anything about marketing/branding?
Tesla, to hit 20m cars or whatever, need to transition from a desirable brand to the bargain brand. That is both difficult and risky. You can go broke on a transition like that.
People spend more than they really need to on houses, cars, watches, clothes, groceries, holidays etc etc.
Moving their brand from desirable to budget is risky.
Price is hugely important. Its clear you understand that. However you fail to understand the rest of the very complex nature of the consumer.
The amazing Tesla story is actually over already. You can come back and ram this down my throat in 12 months if you want to put a note in your diary or something. But it's over. They've peaked.
They've already exhausted all the low hanging fruit. If you want to touch every postcode/zipcode on the planet, like VW for example, that'll cost a small fortune to get that market penetration. Tesla bulls forecast it will happen, but they haven't worked out the cost.
I seen the very same story with Ocado here in the UK. New kid on the block. Got all the low hanging fruit but once you try and scale to reach every postcode, the business model falls apart somewhat, and you risk losing money due to the opex increases against a flat revenue model. They lost £500m this year and a share price graph that looks very much like Tesla. People ranted and raved how good Ocado was and here we are, they are now nursing huge loses on their precious stock prediction.
There is no magic wand to defeat these facts. Tesla need to go to many more countries to find growth and it's just not as easy when you step outside US, China and Europe.
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is.
Ocado won't be able to scale - people laughed
Tesla model Y, released Feb 2022, I predicted Apr 2022 that they will need to release an SR MY to keep sales going - people laughed
I predicted June 22 that heavy Tesla price cuts will come to Europe - people laughed
After price cuts - I predicted end of quarter additional price cuts - people laughed
China and US are good volume for Tesla. But Tesla are supposed to become a global king. They won't.
My best guess is 75k total sales in Europe Q1 2023, 0.3m best case for full year
0.3m cars in one of the biggest global markets!? And they're supposed to be 20m cars a year globally by the end of the decade?
VW will dwarf Tesla on European EV sales this year and if you add in VW ICE sales, Tesla is effectively a small time player in the EU automarket (small time player with a big ass factory - oops)
Q1 Tesla sales will be almost 50% USA this quarter. At what point is Tesla going to become a global automaker, as these statistics aren't painting that picture right now.
Forecasting is a huge part of my day job, and I enjoy transferring a little bit of that trend analysis to different stocks, especially a meme stock like Tesla.
Re: your VW questions. Yes, I think they'll need to promote the ID3 at current prices, as it's too expensive to pay straight book price. So while I agree with you on this point, the ID3 has very little to do with the fact that Tesla will struggle to sell 0.3m in Europe this year. They could sell zero ID3 but it won't make much difference to Tesla, who seem to have hit market saturation point waaaay too early in Europe.
So now that I've answered your question, can you revisit this one please:
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is
Edited by soupdragon1 on Saturday 11th March 19:58
500TORQUES said:
It was a recall, the fix method doesn't affect the fact it is an official forced recall issue, which is a government controlled process.
The USA in particular take recall issues seriously.
It’s not a recall because the cars aren’t recalled. Calling it a recall when the car is not recalled is exactly why the press got slated for it. Christ give them some credit that they can solve most problems over the air while virtually every other manufacturer actually has to do an actual recall. The USA in particular take recall issues seriously.
Having a steering wheel fall off you would need to do a recall.
soupdragon1 said:
Some of my previous predictions:
Ocado won't be able to scale - people laughed
Tesla model Y, released Feb 2022, I predicted Apr 2022 that they will need to release an SR MY to keep sales going - people laughed
I predicted June 22 that heavy Tesla price cuts will come to Europe - people laughed
After price cuts - I predicted end of quarter additional price cuts - people laughed
China and US are good volume for Tesla. But Tesla are supposed to become a global king. They won't.
My best guess is 75k total sales in Europe Q1 2023, 0.3m best case for full year
0.3m cars in one of the biggest global markets!? And they're supposed to be 20m cars a year globally by the end of the decade?
VW will dwarf Tesla on European EV sales this year and if you add in VW ICE sales, Tesla is effectively a small time player in the EU automarket (small time player with a big ass factory - oops)
Q1 Tesla sales will be almost 50% USA this quarter. At what point is Tesla going to become a global automaker, as these statistics aren't painting that picture right now.
Forecasting is a huge part of my day job, and I enjoy transferring a little bit of that trend analysis to different stocks, especially a meme stock like Tesla.
Re: your VW questions. Yes, I think they'll need to promote the ID3 at current prices, as it's too expensive to pay straight book price. So while I agree with you on this point, the ID3 has very little to do with the fact that Tesla will struggle to sell 0.3m in Europe this year. They could sell zero ID3 but it won't make much difference to Tesla, who seem to have hit market saturation point waaaay too early in Europe.
So now that I've answered your question, can you revisit this one please:
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is
Award yourself a house point Ocado won't be able to scale - people laughed
Tesla model Y, released Feb 2022, I predicted Apr 2022 that they will need to release an SR MY to keep sales going - people laughed
I predicted June 22 that heavy Tesla price cuts will come to Europe - people laughed
After price cuts - I predicted end of quarter additional price cuts - people laughed
China and US are good volume for Tesla. But Tesla are supposed to become a global king. They won't.
My best guess is 75k total sales in Europe Q1 2023, 0.3m best case for full year
0.3m cars in one of the biggest global markets!? And they're supposed to be 20m cars a year globally by the end of the decade?
VW will dwarf Tesla on European EV sales this year and if you add in VW ICE sales, Tesla is effectively a small time player in the EU automarket (small time player with a big ass factory - oops)
Q1 Tesla sales will be almost 50% USA this quarter. At what point is Tesla going to become a global automaker, as these statistics aren't painting that picture right now.
Forecasting is a huge part of my day job, and I enjoy transferring a little bit of that trend analysis to different stocks, especially a meme stock like Tesla.
Re: your VW questions. Yes, I think they'll need to promote the ID3 at current prices, as it's too expensive to pay straight book price. So while I agree with you on this point, the ID3 has very little to do with the fact that Tesla will struggle to sell 0.3m in Europe this year. They could sell zero ID3 but it won't make much difference to Tesla, who seem to have hit market saturation point waaaay too early in Europe.
So now that I've answered your question, can you revisit this one please:
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is
Edited by soupdragon1 on Saturday 11th March 19:58
soupdragon1 said:
Re: your VW questions. Yes, I think they'll need to promote the ID3 at current prices, as it's too expensive to pay straight book price. So while I agree with you on this point, the ID3 has very little to do with the fact that Tesla will struggle to sell 0.3m in Europe this year. They could sell zero ID3 but it won't make much difference to Tesla, who seem to have hit market saturation point waaaay too early in Europe.
So now that I've answered your question, can you revisit this one please:
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is
You stated previously that VW are not even bothered about Tesla and VW aren’t going to get in a pricing war with Tesla. So now that I've answered your question, can you revisit this one please:
Ask yourself why Tesla cut China/US/Europe prices instead of using surplus volume to expand into other countries. Any thoughts as to why? They could have kept prices higher, made more profit per vehicle yet bizarrely, chose not to. If that's not an alarm bell, I don't know what is
Edited by soupdragon1 on Saturday 11th March 19:58
Well that’s changed In a few weeks hasn’t it. Watch VW and their entire brand network start reducing their pricing ( not just the id3 but id4 ,Skoda etc….
You state that “the Tesla story is actually already over “ Honestly we can all look at this in just 6 months time when the VW group are dropping their prices to compete and Tesla expands. No point arguing over it. Either you will be right or I.
You are right that the VW group are the biggest EV selling manufacturer in Europe currently but it’s not really hard to say that when they have Seat, VW , Skoda and Porsche selling Ev’s . Seeing as you think Tesla are already spent , what was the second biggest selling vehicle in total and the biggest selling EV car in Germany in February 2023 . Ill, give you hint, it starts with a Y.
In 2022 the top two selling cars in Europe was the Model y and the model 3 , this is before the price cuts had even kicked in.
So car production and meeting their targets. Tesla are not going to sell a poor quality car for under £30000. They have stated that they will be able to reduce manufacturing cost of a vehicle by 50%. There is no manufacturer that is even close to production costs of Tesla right now for EV’s manufacturing and they are saying that their new factory’s will reduce manufacturing by a further 50%. If they can retail a model 2 around that target price it will open Tesla to a massive market and that’s how they will get growth.
Honestly I would think they reduced prices to get the tax break in the USA, surplus stock in China and too much competition.
Edited by Chipper on Sunday 12th March 07:08
Chipper said:
It’s not a recall because the cars aren’t recalled. Calling it a recall when the car is not recalled is exactly why the press got slated for it. Christ give them some credit that they can solve most problems over the air while virtually every other manufacturer actually has to do an actual recall.
Having a steering wheel fall off you would need to do a recall.
It's a recall, you best read up on what one is because you are posting nonsense.Having a steering wheel fall off you would need to do a recall.
It is the USA government agency the United States Department of Transportation that manages recalls and ensures manufacturers handle the required fixes correctly.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/recalls
There are hours of entertainment if you put a manufacturer into the search field.
Not only do they manage the recall's, they also open investigations into issues to further analyse any potential or actual issues, especially safety related. They have the power to withdraw a car make/type from the roads.
The first one i opened for Tesla was this
June 8, 2022 NHTSA ACTION NUMBER: EA22002OPEN INVESTIGATION
Autopilot & First Responder Scenes
NHTSA Action Number: EA22002
Components ELECTRICAL SYSTEM
Opened From: June 8, 2022–Present
Summary
On August 13, 2021, NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) opened a Preliminary Evaluation (PE21-020) to assess the performance of Tesla’s Autopilot system (a system characterized by Tesla as an SAE Level 2 driving automation system designed to support and assist the driver in performing the driving task) available in Tesla vehicles. The investigation opening was motivated by an accumulation of crashes in which Tesla vehicles, operating with Autopilot engaged, struck stationary in-road or roadside first responder vehicles tending to pre-existing collision scenes. Upon opening the investigation, NHTSA indicated that the PE would also evaluate additional similar circumstance crashes of Tesla vehicles operating with Autopilot engaged, as well as assess the technologies and methods used to monitor, assist, and enforce the driver’s engagement with the dynamic driving task during Autopilot operation.
PE21-020 is upgraded to an Engineering Analysis (EA) to extend the existing crash analysis, evaluate additional data sets, perform vehicle evaluations, and to explore the degree to which Autopilot and associated Tesla systems may exacerbate human factors or behavioral safety risks by undermining the effectiveness of the driver’s supervision. In doing so, NHTSA plans to continue its assessment of vehicle control authority, driver engagement technologies, and related human factors considerations.
The attached Detailed Summary further describes NHTSA’s review to date and the basis for upgrade to an EA.
21 Affected Products
Vehicles
MAKE MODEL YEAR
TESLA MODEL 3 2018-2021
TESLA MODEL S 2014-2021
TESLA MODEL X 2015-2021
TESLA MODEL Y 2020-2021
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