EVs... no one wants them!

[Olivera]

otolith said:

We'll see what happens, but that's pure wishful thinking in my opinion. We've got a decade to cater for the minority of new car buyers who would currently find the practicalities of not having an ICE car unacceptably inconvenient (that's not the same as the people who currently don't want or can't afford one). If that's insurmountable, we are pathetic.

There's absolutely no sign of any significant or widespread rollout of local charging provision that would help this demographic, especially at reasonable charging costs. It will eventually happen of course, but realistically it's going to take many decades, not one. Stating they are not new car buyers is also an irrelevance, if a 2035 ban does occur (it won't), then expect to see immediate inflationary pressures on existing ICE prices, like the Covid price boom but on steroids, as new car supply goes to zero. This is probably all irrelevant anyway, public backlash will equal a change of political course well ahead of time.

[Fox-]

DonkeyApple said:

Buying new is still a choice and I'm not sure it's remotely difficult to buy a petrol car new, one simply walks into a car shop, point at what you want and then bend over. 80% of new cars are still ICE.

Manufacturers have already started reducing the range of available petrol cars you can buy.

Want a petrol Mercedes E Class? The UK market only gets the 2 litre now. The larger engine ones remain available elsewhere.

Perhaps you'd like a BMW 430i coupe? Not in the UK, removed from the range. Still available elsewhere though..

The 2035 ban is irrelevant as the zero emissions mandate will have made it difficult if not impossible to buy a petrol car long before that.

Edited by Fox- on Thursday 23 May 12:05

[740EVTORQUES]

Fox- said:

DonkeyApple said:

Buying new is still a choice and I'm not sure it's remotely difficult to buy a petrol car new, one simply walks into a car shop, point at what you want and then bend over. 80% of new cars are still ICE.

Manufacturers have already started reducing the range of available petrol cars you can buy.

Want a petrol Mercedes E Class? The UK market only gets the 2 litre now. The larger engine ones remain available elsewhere.

Perhaps you'd like a BMW 430i coupe? Not in the UK, removed from the range. Still available elsewhere though..

The 2035 ban is irrelevant as the zero emissions mandate will have made it difficult if not impossible to buy a petrol car long before that.

Edited by Fox- on Thursday 23 May 12:05

Isn’t this the issue.

Labour seem unlikely to change the date and by 2029 it will be far too late to risk resulting manufacturers plans, if it isn’t too late already.

[DonkeyApple]

Fox- said:

DonkeyApple said:

Buying new is still a choice and I'm not sure it's remotely difficult to buy a petrol car new, one simply walks into a car shop, point at what you want and then bend over. 80% of new cars are still ICE.

Manufacturers have already started reducing the range of available petrol cars you can buy.

Want a petrol Mercedes E Class? The UK market only gets the 2 litre now. The larger engine ones remain available elsewhere.

Perhaps you'd like a BMW 430i coupe? Not in the UK, removed from the range. Still available elsewhere though..

The 2035 ban is irrelevant as the zero emissions mandate will have made it difficult if not impossible to buy a petrol car long before that.

Edited by Fox- on Thursday 23 May 12:05

But that's not the same thing. There is absolutely no issue or barrier to buying a new ICE today. None whatsoever. It's not even difficult. The hardest bit being the need for finding one's way to the shop. Once inside, just point and bend over.

What you actually mean is something completely different which is that the more expensive and performance versions will steadily disappear in ICE format as that's generally the consumer end that is able to switch to EV today.

[Unreal]

DonkeyApple said:

Unreal said:

That's the current plan but it has changed once already. Advocates and governments are trying to hold the line but plenty of time for more events and more changes. 2035 is a long way off and given current progress they'd just set themselves up to fail by bringing it forward. Far more important things to worry about such as China taking Taiwan, Vlad occupying Ukraine and Israel nuking Tehran.

We've left 2035 legally open so changes can be made if needed. The key is that you still want to keep those who can switch doing so as we head towards 2035 as their adoption will drive the creation of the infrastructure required for those to start switching in the 2040s, which the ZEV Mandate will probably do quite nicely.

For folks who really wish to keep using ICE for the next 20-30 years then planning ahead is all that is required. People who can't think, can't work out a basic plan or who prefer to spend the next decade railing against the change will just be making their own problems.

I think it's a racing certainty that changes will be needed. That's based on little more than life and professional experience of seeing how well transformational infrastructure is delivered in this country. It's therefore just as well changes are allowed for.

I totally get the ambition and the strategy and in many ways that's the easy bit. At some point I need to see milestone targets being hit and I'm not seeing that yet. That means the targets just get harder and harder to achieve whilst advocates insist it will be all right on the night. It goes much wider than EV uptake of course.

I completely agree about using ICE in the next couple of decades. Not an issue for anyone over 40. I'm comfortably beyond that so entirely relaxed about the security of my choices.

[DonkeyApple]

Unreal said:

I think it's a racing certainty that changes will be needed. That's based on little more than life and professional experience of seeing how well transformational infrastructure is delivered in this country. It's therefore just as well changes are allowed for.

I totally get the ambition and the strategy and in many ways that's the easy bit. At some point I need to see milestone targets being hit and I'm not seeing that yet. That means the targets just get harder and harder to achieve whilst advocates insist it will be all right on the night. It goes much wider than EV uptake of course.

I completely agree about using ICE in the next couple of decades. Not an issue for anyone over 40. I'm comfortably beyond that so entirely relaxed about the security of my choices.

Yup but don't get your hopes up that if the poorest drivers in the U.K. must be allowed to still buy a new ICE after 2035 it will be a license for all of us to buy what we want. Instead, it'll be a licence granted via universal credit and limited to a narrow range of vehicles similar to the motability model.

Any post 2035 new ICE will be closer to an Invacar than a Ferrari.

[Olivera]

Unreal said:

I think it's a racing certainty that changes will be needed. That's based on little more than life and professional experience of seeing how well transformational infrastructure is delivered in this country. It's therefore just as well changes are allowed for.

We've been rolling out fibre broadband for 15+ years, yet full fibre to the home only has 66% coverage. Rolling out on-street and communal charging provision would seem a much bigger logistical and costly challenge, but it's going to be complete in 10?

[FiF]

Unreal said:

CheesecakeRunner said:

Unreal said:

Where I laugh and also react is when I hear EVs praised with terms like 'otherworldly' performance and claims that they keep pace with a car like my Yaris in its favoured environment

You’re just as bad. It’s a fking Yaris, not a Ferrari. It’s a bodykitted and breathed on version of what is sold to old people to go and pick up their pension in.

“The car in front is a Toyota”. Yeah, only because it’s going so slow and all over the road being driven by an old biddy you can’t fking overtake it.

QED.

Et tam celeritur demonstratum.

[irc]

D4rez said:

Next point - we want to reduce CO2. The majority of the population are behind taking concrete steps to avoid climate change when polled.

It depends on the question. If you ask them if they are in favour of doubling the cost of aviation or rationing flights you might get a different answer.

I would also be skeptical about polls. People can give the "correct" answer when polled but do something different when actually sending their money.

Random example. UK traffic in 2023 was 2.3% lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Given the explosion in home working since then I would guess leisure travel by vehicle is up.

https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary

[loudlashadjuster]

Fox- said:

DonkeyApple said:

Buying new is still a choice and I'm not sure it's remotely difficult to buy a petrol car new, one simply walks into a car shop, point at what you want and then bend over. 80% of new cars are still ICE.

Manufacturers have already started reducing the range of available petrol cars you can buy.

Want a petrol Mercedes E Class? The UK market only gets the 2 litre now. The larger engine ones remain available elsewhere.

Perhaps you'd like a BMW 430i coupe? Not in the UK, removed from the range. Still available elsewhere though..

The 2035 ban is irrelevant as the zero emissions mandate will have made it difficult if not impossible to buy a petrol car long before that.

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

My take? The UK has always disproportionately favoured miserable-engined versions of "luxury" cars, so the juicier options being dropped from the UK before Germany etc. is just a consequence of that.

[otolith]

loudlashadjuster said:

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

My take? The UK has always disproportionately favoured miserable-engined versions of "luxury" cars, so the juicier options being dropped from the UK before Germany etc. is just a consequence of that.

It may also be relevant that BMW doesn't have a binding fleet average CO2 target for Germany, it has one for the whole EU. And it has one just for the UK, because Brexit.

[D4rez]

irc said:

D4rez said:

Next point - we want to reduce CO2. The majority of the population are behind taking concrete steps to avoid climate change when polled.

It depends on the question. If you ask them if they are in favour of doubling the cost of aviation or rationing flights you might get a different answer.

I would also be skeptical about polls. People can give the "correct" answer when polled but do something different when actually sending their money.

Random example. UK traffic in 2023 was 2.3% lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Given the explosion in home working since then I would guess leisure travel by vehicle is up.

https://roadtraffic.dft.gov.uk/summary

Oh completely, when you then ask people who should pay the cost or compromise well…. cue circular finger pointing or it normally ends up at “big corporates” or “private jets” or “other countries (that make stuff for us)”

Net zero is probably all of the above sadly plus reduced meat consumption and flights and blah blah. It’s a massive challenge. Electric cars are politically easy in comparison and even that’s a nightmare in a democracy and a global economy.

[Fox-]

DonkeyApple said:

But that's not the same thing. There is absolutely no issue or barrier to buying a new ICE today. None whatsoever. It's not even difficult. The hardest bit being the need for finding one's way to the shop. Once inside, just point and bend over.

Unless you want a BMW 430i. Or an E Class that has more than 200bhp, or any of the other number of cars you will increasingly not be able to buy anymore as the zero emissions mandate makes it unviable for manufacturers to offer them despite the fact they still exist and are still in production and are still sold in the rest of the world.

Only the UK cannot get a petrol E class with more than about 200bhp. Only the UK cannot get a BMW 430i...

My point is that it's simply not true to suggest that if you don't like electric cars you don't need to buy one - the direction of travel is only one way and it will become increasingly noticeable long before 2035. In just two years time a THIRD of vehicles sold must be zero emissions and this won't be achieved by manufacturers offering a full and comprehensive range of petrol cars, will it?

DonkeyApple said:

What you actually mean is something completely different which is that the more expensive and performance versions will steadily disappear in ICE format .

Last time I checked this forum wasn't the Hyundai i10 owners club, so this is effectively the same as my original point as far as most of us are concerned, is it not?

[loudlashadjuster]

otolith said:

loudlashadjuster said:

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

My take? The UK has always disproportionately favoured miserable-engined versions of "luxury" cars, so the juicier options being dropped from the UK before Germany etc. is just a consequence of that.

It may also be relevant that BMW doesn't have a binding fleet average CO2 target for Germany, it has one for the whole EU. And it has one just for the UK, because Brexit.

Good point.

[Fox-]

loudlashadjuster said:

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

I don't think it does - who else is mandating that 38% of vehicles sold new must be zero emissions in 3 years time?

[loudlashadjuster]

Fox- said:

loudlashadjuster said:

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

I don't think it does - who else is mandating that 38% of vehicles sold new must be zero emissions in 3 years time?

The EU's legislation is focused on the outcome, but the effect is very similar.

The EU said:

[MightyBadger]

Good job the countries who make our electric cars and batteries don't have clean air policies etc eh?

[740EVTORQUES]

MightyBadger said:

Good job the countries who make our electric cars and batteries don't have clean air policies etc eh?

Good job they account for manufacturing our tat on their carbon emissions figures not theirs?

[D4rez]

loudlashadjuster said:

Fox- said:

DonkeyApple said:

Buying new is still a choice and I'm not sure it's remotely difficult to buy a petrol car new, one simply walks into a car shop, point at what you want and then bend over. 80% of new cars are still ICE.

Manufacturers have already started reducing the range of available petrol cars you can buy.

Want a petrol Mercedes E Class? The UK market only gets the 2 litre now. The larger engine ones remain available elsewhere.

Perhaps you'd like a BMW 430i coupe? Not in the UK, removed from the range. Still available elsewhere though..

The 2035 ban is irrelevant as the zero emissions mandate will have made it difficult if not impossible to buy a petrol car long before that.

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

My take? The UK has always disproportionately favoured miserable-engined versions of "luxury" cars, so the juicier options being dropped from the UK before Germany etc. is just a consequence of that.

Predominantly because our fuel costs are relatively high and our society as a whole doesn’t care. In Germany big powerful engines are a way of life and linked to a proud domestic auto industry. That was the historic view

Now CO2 is the decisive factor and UK customers at an aggregate level don’t care enough to pay the higher fines in pricing. It’s that simple.

Also we follow the EU on emissions standards. So if you are BMW trying to decide whether to do a RHD Euro 7 compliant calibration for a 3.0l petrol next gen 3 series. You’re only going to do it if you can sell it in decent numbers for £80k+ and cover your emissions fine costs. It doesn’t make sense otherwise.

The way this has already played out is that non-4 cylinder cars are either SUVs or higher margin performance cars. In the UK no one really buys sports cars so 6-cyl and above is really only an SUV or crossover, with a good badge and a price point approaching 6 figures. This will continue as the fines rise across EU/UK and we’re only in the first years of these ZeV/CO2 regimes. The choice only gets less from here.

So if you’re hoping that an ICE ban extension from 2035 to 2036 means you can buy whatever.. think again unless you’ve got something like £250k to drop. Already this group of customers is small enough to be a political irrelevance so that won’t swing it either.

[D4rez]

loudlashadjuster said:

Fox- said:

loudlashadjuster said:

But many of the markets in which the larger-engined cars you mention are still available have the same phase-out mandate and timeline as the UK, so I'm not sure what that proves?

I don't think it does - who else is mandating that 38% of vehicles sold new must be zero emissions in 3 years time?

The EU's legislation is focused on the outcome, but the effect is very similar.

The EU said:

UK and US is not far behind (people just haven’t realised it yet because it’s not labelled a ban)