EVs... no one wants them!
Discussion
BricktopST205 said:
My question has been and always has been why?
Why should people have to change their mindset or how they live? If people had a choice EV's would have never even got off the ground because outside of a few niche things they are worse than their ICE siblings at doing the basic job of getting from A to B.
Because a democratically elected government decided to, Parliament approved, and the Crown implemented. Same as making seatbelts mandatory, or banning child labour, or Sunday trading laws. I'm sure that there were people very much opposed to those things too and having to change their mindset and how they lived, but that's life in a democracy.Why should people have to change their mindset or how they live? If people had a choice EV's would have never even got off the ground because outside of a few niche things they are worse than their ICE siblings at doing the basic job of getting from A to B.
As and actually those things that an EV does as well or even better than ICE are not niche, they cover the vast majority of what most people want or need from a car.
You’re making the mistake of viewing this through your own narrow lens.
Why do you think so many Governments were spurred into action, climate change and the need to tackle it had been one of the things to gain almost universal agreement in recent years.
You’re making the mistake of viewing this through your own narrow lens.
Why do you think so many Governments were spurred into action, climate change and the need to tackle it had been one of the things to gain almost universal agreement in recent years.
BricktopST205 said:
What do you think is going to happen to the ancillaries that supply the OEM's. The places that make turbochargers, pistons, spark plugs etc, fuel tanks, fuel pumps etc.
Electric motors are very simple things and batteries are very specific in their construction that require dedicated sites.
Governments need to put things in place to provide alternative work or end up with the situation you had in 70's and 80's with towns and cities becoming ghosts with the closing of manufacturing like coal mines and the steel industry. Only it will be ten times worse due to inflation since then.
Not only that but the Chinese will gain massively putting many legacy manufacturers out of business altogether. They have control over everything EV related. OEM's have realised this but it is too late really. Capitalism at its finest.
MG for example was a joke brand only 5 years ago. Today it is the 11th biggest selling brand in the UK. Selling more than Pug, Skoda, Renault, Citroen, MINI just to name a few and have the largest increase year on year. BYD will soon be flooding the market and consumers have very little loyalty outside of people like you and me who are car enthusiasts.
Like I said earlier the outlook looks a lot better for the UK as manufacturing is tiny here but on the continent not so much.
Simply put, the continent needs to wake up to how much they are going to need the British consumer if they're to survive their failure to adapt. Sticking their prices up and demanding legislation to keep out competition isn't going to save them. Electric motors are very simple things and batteries are very specific in their construction that require dedicated sites.
Governments need to put things in place to provide alternative work or end up with the situation you had in 70's and 80's with towns and cities becoming ghosts with the closing of manufacturing like coal mines and the steel industry. Only it will be ten times worse due to inflation since then.
Not only that but the Chinese will gain massively putting many legacy manufacturers out of business altogether. They have control over everything EV related. OEM's have realised this but it is too late really. Capitalism at its finest.
MG for example was a joke brand only 5 years ago. Today it is the 11th biggest selling brand in the UK. Selling more than Pug, Skoda, Renault, Citroen, MINI just to name a few and have the largest increase year on year. BYD will soon be flooding the market and consumers have very little loyalty outside of people like you and me who are car enthusiasts.
Like I said earlier the outlook looks a lot better for the UK as manufacturing is tiny here but on the continent not so much.
Germany is facing an economic situation akin to the U.K. in the 80s/90s but without a financial services and general services industry to support it or a booming developing nations global economy to trade into. Even with those key benefits the U.K. went through 20 years of regional misery during the final transition out of the lowest forms of carbon rich manufacturing.
Germany yet again finds itself trying to compete against manufacturing giants in areas they cannot ever win. They find themselves unable to keep expanding their cheap land and labour eastwards. A serious energy supply problem having been cut off from a neighbour they made themselves reliant upon. German automotive industry has never needed the British consumer more than it does today. But spiking prices and trying to block competition isn't going to work for long. It's why I suspect we will see a resurgence in French brands in the SE of England over the coming years and the German brands will just keep losing market share to Asian competition.
DonkeyApple said:
BricktopST205 said:
What do you think is going to happen to the ancillaries that supply the OEM's. The places that make turbochargers, pistons, spark plugs etc, fuel tanks, fuel pumps etc.
Electric motors are very simple things and batteries are very specific in their construction that require dedicated sites.
Governments need to put things in place to provide alternative work or end up with the situation you had in 70's and 80's with towns and cities becoming ghosts with the closing of manufacturing like coal mines and the steel industry. Only it will be ten times worse due to inflation since then.
Not only that but the Chinese will gain massively putting many legacy manufacturers out of business altogether. They have control over everything EV related. OEM's have realised this but it is too late really. Capitalism at its finest.
MG for example was a joke brand only 5 years ago. Today it is the 11th biggest selling brand in the UK. Selling more than Pug, Skoda, Renault, Citroen, MINI just to name a few and have the largest increase year on year. BYD will soon be flooding the market and consumers have very little loyalty outside of people like you and me who are car enthusiasts.
Like I said earlier the outlook looks a lot better for the UK as manufacturing is tiny here but on the continent not so much.
Simply put, the continent needs to wake up to how much they are going to need the British consumer if they're to survive their failure to adapt. Sticking their prices up and demanding legislation to keep out competition isn't going to save them. Electric motors are very simple things and batteries are very specific in their construction that require dedicated sites.
Governments need to put things in place to provide alternative work or end up with the situation you had in 70's and 80's with towns and cities becoming ghosts with the closing of manufacturing like coal mines and the steel industry. Only it will be ten times worse due to inflation since then.
Not only that but the Chinese will gain massively putting many legacy manufacturers out of business altogether. They have control over everything EV related. OEM's have realised this but it is too late really. Capitalism at its finest.
MG for example was a joke brand only 5 years ago. Today it is the 11th biggest selling brand in the UK. Selling more than Pug, Skoda, Renault, Citroen, MINI just to name a few and have the largest increase year on year. BYD will soon be flooding the market and consumers have very little loyalty outside of people like you and me who are car enthusiasts.
Like I said earlier the outlook looks a lot better for the UK as manufacturing is tiny here but on the continent not so much.
Germany is facing an economic situation akin to the U.K. in the 80s/90s but without a financial services and general services industry to support it or a booming developing nations global economy to trade into. Even with those key benefits the U.K. went through 20 years of regional misery during the final transition out of the lowest forms of carbon rich manufacturing.
Germany yet again finds itself trying to compete against manufacturing giants in areas they cannot ever win. They find themselves unable to keep expanding their cheap land and labour eastwards. A serious energy supply problem having been cut off from a neighbour they made themselves reliant upon. German automotive industry has never needed the British consumer more than it does today. But spiking prices and trying to block competition isn't going to work for long. It's why I suspect we will see a resurgence in French brands in the SE of England over the coming years and the German brands will just keep losing market share to Asian competition.
irc said:
Public rates are around 70p a kWh. For an EV doing 4 miles per kWh that is 17.5p per mile.
A car getting 45mpg with fuel at £6.75 per gallon is 15p per mile.
So petrol is cheaper despite the huge taxes on it.
It's been said many times already - if you had to use public charging all of the time, the benefits of an EV are largely lost because of price gouging at public chargers. This sets aside the convenience of charging overnight.A car getting 45mpg with fuel at £6.75 per gallon is 15p per mile.
So petrol is cheaper despite the huge taxes on it.
I pay 6p a mile (last time I looked) and I have a near 500bhp car as a daily driver that needs no servicing. I don't wish to drive an economical ICE as a daily driver.
I do have petrol cars too.
riskyj said:
GT9 said:
He's doing a cost equivalence comparing UK pump price with public charger electricity price per mile.
Clearly, it depends on the price of each 'fuel'.
Bu then mixing it up a bit with some US MPG references.
A US gallon is 3.79 litres, an imperial gallon is 4.55 litres.
US EV efficiency in MPGe is different to UK MPGe.
For imperial gallons, 4 miles/kWh is 160 MPGe for diesel or 142 MPGe for petrol.
So nowhere near the 30mpg quoted by CG2020UK. Got it. Clearly, it depends on the price of each 'fuel'.
Bu then mixing it up a bit with some US MPG references.
A US gallon is 3.79 litres, an imperial gallon is 4.55 litres.
US EV efficiency in MPGe is different to UK MPGe.
For imperial gallons, 4 miles/kWh is 160 MPGe for diesel or 142 MPGe for petrol.
Edited by GT9 on Thursday 23 May 22:38
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/car-group-tests/3598...
I just went public charger rough rate of 70p kWH divided by mi/kWh efficiency eg 70/3.1= 22.5p a mile.
You can then just use this calculator to work out the cost per mile on an ice/diesel.
http://www.fuel-economy.co.uk/calc.html
The US table is just to give people figures for their own calculations.
Eg: 1 mile, 30mpg and fuel cost 147p/L then it costs 22p a mile as well.
Cost per mile is usually the best metric for comparing fuel costs and much more transparent than MPGe.
It’s more highlighting that public chargers are a joke and should only be a last resort.
Edited by CG2020UK on Friday 24th May 09:10
Edited by CG2020UK on Friday 24th May 10:31
nickfrog said:
A very quick calculation tells me that at around 3.5 miles/kwh an EV will cost £100 / year on leccy using Octopus 7.5p night tariff if doing 5,000 miles/year. That's 2p per mile compared to around 16p at 40mpg for petrol.
Sounds too cheap. What have I missed?
You're correct Nick.Sounds too cheap. What have I missed?
My Model 3 Long Range is averaging 3.5 miles/kwh. It will do 4.2 miles/kwh if driving very economically in warm weather. It will do 3.2 miles/kwh if making progress with no regard to economy and enjoying the acceleration.
I've done 6k miles in mine so far in 3.5 months and all i've noticed is that my direct debit to Octopus has gone up slightly from £150/m to £180/m.
At 20k miles/year i'm expecting my total "fuel" bill to be about £400.
Charging overnight on Octopus is very simple. It adds about 10% to the battery per hour on 32A (7kw).
In terms of cost:
An 80p/kwh non-tesla charger is roughly the same pence per mile as fuelling an M2 at 30 mpg.
A 40p/kwh tesla supercharger is roughly the same pence per mile as fuelling a hybrid petrol at 60 mpg.
Charging from home at 7.5p/kwh is roughly 300mpg.
In terms of energy consumption, you can easily convert between mpg and miles/kwh as follows:
A litre of petrol contain 9.7kWh and diesel 10.7/kWh, so pretty simple to work out the miles/kWh that a non-EV manages.
30mpg in a petrol car is 0.7 miles/kWh
40mpg in a petrol car is 0.9 miles/kWh
50mpg in a petrol car is 1.1 miles/kWh
60mpg in a petrol car is 1.3 miles/kWh
50mpg in a diesel car is 1 mile/kWh
60mpg in a diesel car is 1.2 miles/kWh
70mpg in a diesel car is 1.4 miles/kWh
NDA said:
irc said:
Public rates are around 70p a kWh. For an EV doing 4 miles per kWh that is 17.5p per mile.
A car getting 45mpg with fuel at £6.75 per gallon is 15p per mile.
So petrol is cheaper despite the huge taxes on it.
It's been said many times already - if you had to use public charging all of the time, the benefits of an EV are largely lost because of price gouging at public chargers. This sets aside the convenience of charging overnight.A car getting 45mpg with fuel at £6.75 per gallon is 15p per mile.
So petrol is cheaper despite the huge taxes on it.
I pay 6p a mile (last time I looked) and I have a near 500bhp car as a daily driver that needs no servicing. I don't wish to drive an economical ICE as a daily driver.
I do have petrol cars too.
Checked rates that the university car park charges, 45.5pkWh is the rate available at most outlets. 75 available at some points, but let's go with the lower figure.
Petrol locally is 147.7 per litre.
By my calculation that works out at 45 mpg equivalent. Compared to my 28mpg on the dog van.
Full disclosure, those charging rates don't include parking costs, pay and display for public, parking permit for staff, which you also pay for stopped from salary, latter relatively inexpensive and pay for it either way.
So in my humble opinion it's getting closer, just on fuel cost I could charge on public chargers 100% and still make a big saving. Though to be fair the availability of public charging near home is dire and expensive, 69p/kWh. But but but have a drive and easily possible to arrange home charging so lucked in there.
So when I need to change vehicles will do so happily to something EV that fits needs. Not going to go shopping for the sake of it though. Suspect there are a lot just like me and numbers increasing. For some will be more difficult and they will have to be patient.
Do agree though that 75p / kWh plus p&d. parking costs seems a bit chippy. Far better if arrangements could be made for costs at home rate plus a hopefully small service charge.
As for manufacturers they're going to have figure out something better than their current attempts to manipulate new and used pricing. Comedians.
It so happens that Octopus Electroverse now offers Plunge pricing for public chargers...
"Hundreds of customers have already taken part and saved £6.50 on average on a single charge. Discounts to date have ranged from 15% up to 45% per kWh."
Like IOG, it encourages people to charge off peak at public chargers...
https://evfleetworld.co.uk/octopus-electroverse-cu...
"Hundreds of customers have already taken part and saved £6.50 on average on a single charge. Discounts to date have ranged from 15% up to 45% per kWh."
Like IOG, it encourages people to charge off peak at public chargers...
https://evfleetworld.co.uk/octopus-electroverse-cu...
BricktopST205 said:
My question has been and always has been why?
Why should people have to change their mindset or how they live? If people had a choice EV's would have never even got off the ground because outside of a few niche things they are worse than their ICE siblings at doing the basic job of getting from A to B.
This is the problem, people are selfish.Why should people have to change their mindset or how they live? If people had a choice EV's would have never even got off the ground because outside of a few niche things they are worse than their ICE siblings at doing the basic job of getting from A to B.
Oil will eventually run out, but that doesn't matter, it won't happen until most people alive today are dead, so who cares.
I've said this before, if we estimate that we've got 50 years of oil remaining, by reducing consumption and switching to EV's we can reduce our reliance on oil a little, and use oil for use cases where it's best suited.
Switching passenger vehicles to electric will have long term positive impacts for the populate of this and many other countries.
TheBinarySheep said:
This is the problem, people are selfish.
Oil will eventually run out, but that doesn't matter, it won't happen until most people alive today are dead, so who cares.
I've said this before, if we estimate that we've got 50 years of oil remaining, by reducing consumption and switching to EV's we can reduce our reliance on oil a little, and use oil for use cases where it's best suited.
Switching passenger vehicles to electric will have long term positive impacts for the populate of this and many other countries.
The oil one is interesting. We are not going to run out of oil. The actual issue is that we are going to run out of cheap oil, the stuff that costs just $10 to lift out of the ground. Saudi reserves are generally estimated to be 30-40 years before depletion, a little earlier will se the cost to extract double and triple. The key is that oil trades around $80 because of the existence of that cheap oil. Oil will eventually run out, but that doesn't matter, it won't happen until most people alive today are dead, so who cares.
I've said this before, if we estimate that we've got 50 years of oil remaining, by reducing consumption and switching to EV's we can reduce our reliance on oil a little, and use oil for use cases where it's best suited.
Switching passenger vehicles to electric will have long term positive impacts for the populate of this and many other countries.
What we know is going to occur within 40 years is a step change upwards in the average price of oil as the super cheap supply drops out. What we then know is that the economies reliant on oil will incur a major economic shock. Just look at how Western economies falter when oil spikes above the $100 mark.
We know that in 30-40 years there will be a major economic shock due to the depletion of cheap oil and the permanent move of the average global price to a much higher level. We also know that it will take this long for the U.K. economy to transition away from oil reliance and the toxic risk of oil pricing. And we know that for the U.K. this is a transport issue.
Incentivising the more affluent contributors to the U.K. economy to start paying to start the switch away from oil based transport now and to create the infrastructure needed for everyone else makes perfect sense from that perspective.
Shorter term, the fact that OPEC hold the price of oil and the U.K. has no power and the fact that the US have embargoed the two core cheap oil supplies of Iran and Venezuela meaning the price is kept high enough for their domestic reserves to be profitable is a risk and cost to the U.K. taxpayer that should have them all wanting to transition to renewable domestic energy and EVs for transport as quickly as is plausible. The amount of U.K. growth and revenue lost to the USD and Oil economy is immense and it can only get worse.
DonkeyApple said:
The oil one is interesting. We are not going to run out of oil. The actual issue is that we are going to run out of cheap oil, the stuff that costs just $10 to lift out of the ground. Saudi reserves are generally estimated to be 30-40 years before depletion, a little earlier will se the cost to extract double and triple. The key is that oil trades around $80 because of the existence of that cheap oil.
That makes sense, thanks for correcting that.TheBinarySheep said:
DonkeyApple said:
The oil one is interesting. We are not going to run out of oil. The actual issue is that we are going to run out of cheap oil, the stuff that costs just $10 to lift out of the ground. Saudi reserves are generally estimated to be 30-40 years before depletion, a little earlier will se the cost to extract double and triple. The key is that oil trades around $80 because of the existence of that cheap oil.
That makes sense, thanks for correcting that.FiF said:
TheBinarySheep said:
DonkeyApple said:
The oil one is interesting. We are not going to run out of oil. The actual issue is that we are going to run out of cheap oil, the stuff that costs just $10 to lift out of the ground. Saudi reserves are generally estimated to be 30-40 years before depletion, a little earlier will se the cost to extract double and triple. The key is that oil trades around $80 because of the existence of that cheap oil.
That makes sense, thanks for correcting that.I'd put this at the top of the list for EV switching. Sticking two fingers up to dictators and human rights violators who have a free gift of oil reserves under their feet.
Being able to charge on energy generated locally, using local resources is such a huge win.
Even now, it's common to charge overnight on 40-50% wind energy, especially when combined with the energy being sent through interconnectors which are used to balance the excess wind, hydro and nuclear from norway, denmark, holland and france.
The fact that it's also much cheaper when charging from home is the icing on the cake.
CO2 isn't far up the list of reasons to run an EV as a daily for me.
FiF said:
The other issue before the question of cheap oil 'running out' is that it makes absolute sense to reduce exposure to relying in part on actors who will always act in their own interests which are often very opposed to our own sometimes malevolently so.
Absolutely. Case in point being interest rates. The GBP needs to hold a fair parity to the USD so whatever the FRD does to their domestic interest rate the BoE is ultimately obliged to map even if our domestic inflation can be dealt with via other, more precise means (debt flow control or as seen quite literally this week, just dropping energy prices). Then there's the oil fiasco. Why has the price of U.K. petrol risen over 10p/litre in the last few weeks? The price of oil hasn't increased and we refine onshore and that cost hasn't changed. The answer is that the 6 U.K. refineries price on global markets and if the U.K. wishes to have that product rather than for it to be exported for a higher price then we end up having to match that price. So, a random event elsewhere on the planet can for no true reason cause everyone in the U.K. to be paying more for fuel and more for goods transported by that fuel.
Even Nat Gas isn't immune. We have local supplies but should a local neighbour that doesn't usually buy U.K. Gas or even TTF suddenly get cut off from their supplies to the East then their sudden demand in our local market smashes the price up. In the most recent case over ten fold in a matter of months.
Things like renewables aren't the answer to everything and raise their own questions but the reality is that the U.K. is one of the few countries on the planet that is positioned to the East of a major sea, at the point where the trade winds are most constant and the island has a very shallow geology offshore in large areas which means the U.K. has the genuine capacity to be a near constant producer of excess wind energy. We also have an absolutely massive potential energy reserve in terms of tidal power which cannot yet be efficiently tapped but is likely to be a function of time. And again, tidal power needs constant wind and shallow seas as those conditions produce the most energy.
When it comes to the renewable aspect the U.K. shouldn't be targeting self sufficiency. Self sufficiency should simply be the byproduct of targeting being a net exporter of energy. Germany is not likely to ever be wholly self sufficient. France's nuclear backbone will be gone in 40 years and the whole of mainland Europe has the toxic oil and usd economic shock to contend with after the horror of net zero forcing them to deindustrialise as the U.K. did thirty to forty years ago.
Get batteries on wheels into as many driveways as possible is a great target to help slam oil reliance. If we leave a modest percentage of cars as ICE then who cares. It would arguably be a good thing. If I had my way I'd bin all the EV subsidies and just change the lending regulation so that ICe had a very low cap meaning anyone wanting much more than a £15/20k car would have to buy electric to get the lending. And post 2035 I'd allow the smallest and cheapest ICe to remain on sale as their emissions would be of no relevance but it ensures worker mobility, spreads risk and stops a lot of people s
ting their pants every day from now to 2035. JD said:
Or just look at this published by Zap Map and updated every month.
It isn't representative of the UK average use, which is less mileage (7000 miles annually) and short commutes in urban environments where fuel economy is worse than the 43mpg in that illustration. Getting a petrol Golf to average 43mpg over 10000 miles involves a LOT of motorway driving. I have a similar car with WLTP combined 44mpg consumption, but which averages 25mpg because it does loads of short journeys in a city.
So for most people in the UK who can't charge at home or work, the cost difference to a pure petrol is less than that illustration. The lower maintenance costs of an EV would make them about even on running costs.
braddo said:
Interesting. But worth mentioning that that example is being kind to the ICE costs.
It isn't representative of the UK average use, which is less mileage (7000 miles annually) and short commutes in urban environments where fuel economy is worse than the 43mpg in that illustration. Getting a petrol Golf to average 43mpg over 10000 miles involves a LOT of motorway driving. I have a similar car with WLTP combined 44mpg consumption, but which averages 25mpg because it does loads of short journeys in a city.
So for most people in the UK who can't charge at home or work, the cost difference to a pure petrol is less than that illustration. The lower maintenance costs of an EV would make them about even on running costs.
It is something that will become clearer in the 2040s when the smaller number of drivers who don't have home charging start to switch. It isn't representative of the UK average use, which is less mileage (7000 miles annually) and short commutes in urban environments where fuel economy is worse than the 43mpg in that illustration. Getting a petrol Golf to average 43mpg over 10000 miles involves a LOT of motorway driving. I have a similar car with WLTP combined 44mpg consumption, but which averages 25mpg because it does loads of short journeys in a city.
So for most people in the UK who can't charge at home or work, the cost difference to a pure petrol is less than that illustration. The lower maintenance costs of an EV would make them about even on running costs.
FiF said:
Checked rates that the university car park charges, 45.5pkWh is the rate available at most outlets. 75 available at some points, but let's go with the lower figure..
Why? There is plenty evidence it is higher. The RAC reckon the pterol/diesel advantage is even higher than my guestimates.https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/electric-cars/charging...
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