When will used car prices drop?
Discussion
Not having a pop at anyone but I think some people are generally making the mistake of comparing the current crisis with previous crashes, the banks in 2008, the dot com boom and probably most of the other recessions before that. These were one way or the other all man made and ultimately based either on greed, power struggles and general excess or a combination of all 3.
The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
Edited by Miopyk on Thursday 23 April 23:49
Porsche911R said:
unemployment wont go though the roof and has NOT already gone though the roof ?, people in employment might drop to 2017 levels but not to 2008 levels !! atm it's gone form 3.8% to 4% but for other reasons as well.
it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!
in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.
this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008..
Even by your very high standards of delusion the above is just utterly laughable.it might go up 2 million (not sure, it will be more like 1 million imo), that's not really an issue and again those people in those jobs were not the prestige car market buyers any way. Jobs are being created in other area's for the lower paid, but they don't want the jobs !! we are flying workers in !!!
in 2008 it was about 8% after effect , in 87 it was 11.5% odd, it might goto 5 or 6% from 4% this time imho.
this is not the same sort of issues as 87, 2008..
ONS unemployment statistics cover up to Feb20 only at 4%. Universal credit in the last 2 weeks of March have risen by 1+m. There are 2.2 workers currently officially under furlough and the OBR stated they expected 8m. A lot of these people are not going to have a job when the furlough scheme ends, particularly if there's still going to be the threat of another lockdown which the government is doing nothing to dampen at all as company revenues in a lot of sectors have been wiped out. If this recession is only 2008 bad we will be thanking our lucky stars. There aren't the same issues now as in 2008, that at least you got right. It's a lot worse. You've got your head firmly in the sand and/or you are very lucky to work in a sector that's somehow completely unaffected by recent events if you think otherwise.
Edited by isaldiri on Friday 24th April 00:50
Porsche911R said:
Better to have a positive attitude, having lived though the last 2 crashes, I don’t think this is the same. Although we will all be paying for it for years. How time will tell, prob a higher VAT rate.
I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
The delusion is strong in this one...I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
You can't compare this to anything we've seen in our lifetime. This won't be a U curve, if we're lucky, flatline for a couple of years then a slow rise..
Social distancing for another 12 months at least.
Will used car prices drop?...
For the foreseeable future.
av185 said:
first flipped cars will be £210k+.
Is this satire?Honestly reading some people on here, it's like they live in a cave. US unemployment is over 20%.... this is not going to get back to normal overnight magically because we come out of lockdown, it's going to take a decade or more to get back to full employment. The effect on the global economy is going to be huge.
I don't disagree that a positive attitude is a good thing in times like these, but outright denial of the situation is probably worse.
djroj2001 said:
av185 said:
first flipped cars will be £210k+.
Is this satire?Honestly reading some people on here, it's like they live in a cave. US unemployment is over 20%.... this is not going to get back to normal overnight magically because we come out of lockdown, it's going to take a decade or more to get back to full employment. The effect on the global economy is going to be huge.
I don't disagree that a positive attitude is a good thing in times like these, but outright denial of the situation is probably worse.
Miopyk said:
Not having a pop at anyone but I think some people are generally making the mistake of comparing the current crisis with previous crashes, the banks in 2008, the dot com boom and probably most of the other recessions before that. These were one way or the other all man made and ultimately based either on greed, power struggles and general excess or a combination of all 3.
The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
That’s the best, all be it rather depressing post, I’ve read in this subject - thanks for posting The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
Edited by Miopyk on Thursday 23 April 23:49
Miopyk said:
Not having a pop at anyone but I think some people are generally making the mistake of comparing the current crisis with previous crashes, the banks in 2008, the dot com boom and probably most of the other recessions before that. These were one way or the other all man made and ultimately based either on greed, power struggles and general excess or a combination of all 3.
The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
Many previous shocks have been sorted by balance sheet manipulation. This one is different and has struck the world at a time when the financial manipulation to sort previous crashes has left us at our most exposed everThe key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
Edited by Miopyk on Thursday 23 April 23:49
Nothing was fixed in 2008...they tried to solve a debt fueled problem with more debt.
MrVert said:
Porsche911R said:
Better to have a positive attitude, having lived though the last 2 crashes, I don’t think this is the same. Although we will all be paying for it for years. How time will tell, prob a higher VAT rate.
I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
The delusion is strong in this one...I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
You can't compare this to anything we've seen in our lifetime. This won't be a U curve, if we're lucky, flatline for a couple of years then a slow rise..
Social distancing for another 12 months at least.
Will used car prices drop?...
For the foreseeable future.
growth will be up In the 2nd and 3rd 1/4 as it's dead now so that's a given.
yes we will have a debt issue and yes the leisure side is in big trouble, but in the main it will be back to normal.
Leisure will hit the EU and places like Spain, Italy and france far harder. I predict UK record holiday bookings and record growth in 2021.
as for the car market and high street , those 2 area were in trouble, nothing to do with covid. used car prices were crashing due to a flooded market as is.
PCP sales while has driven the market the last 15 years has now ruined the market, this I already predicted 3 or 4 years back.
I await the big ppi like PCP scandle if anything.
And f***k Porsche OPC's robbing b
ds, about time they took some heat all my cars are coming out of the OPC network.ON line sales are booming, Amazon stocks record highs. saled up 35 % places like BOO HOO already have recovered their share price.
people are spending more than ever it seems just on line !
why are we flying in workers, o yes people want free money over moving jobs to booming area's
UK needed a reset, imo it's for the better. Will it change people, I doubt it.
And to add the lower end of the fun car market is seeing a rise !!! 205 GTi etc prices up ! who would have thought it.
"Food and online shopping rose, and alcohol sales jumped by 31%.
Online shopping as a proportion of all retail reached a record high of 22%"
people are still spending just in other area's
Edited by Porsche911R on Friday 24th April 10:31
Porsche911R said:
Better to have a positive attitude, having lived though the last 2 crashes, I don’t think this is the same. Although we will all be paying for it for years. How time will tell, prob a higher VAT rate.
I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
Yep very true I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
will take a leaf from your bookPorsche911R said:
MrVert said:
Porsche911R said:
Better to have a positive attitude, having lived though the last 2 crashes, I don’t think this is the same. Although we will all be paying for it for years. How time will tell, prob a higher VAT rate.
I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
The delusion is strong in this one...I am very affected but no one I know will loose their jobs.
You can't compare this to anything we've seen in our lifetime. This won't be a U curve, if we're lucky, flatline for a couple of years then a slow rise..
Social distancing for another 12 months at least.
Will used car prices drop?...
For the foreseeable future.
growth will be up In the 2nd and 3rd 1/4 as it's dead now so that's a given.
yes we will have a debt issue and yes the leisure side is in big trouble, but in the main it will be back to normal.
Leisure will hit the EU and places like Spain, Italy and france far harder. I predict UK record holiday bookings and record growth in 2021.
as for the car market and high street , those 2 area were in trouble, nothing to do with covid. used car prices were crashing due to a flooded market as is.
PCP sales while has driven the market the last 15 years has now ruined the market, this I already predicted 3 or 4 years back.
I await the big ppi like PCP scandle if anything.
And f***k Porsche OPC's robbing b
ds, about time they took some heat all my cars are coming out of the OPC network.ON line sales are booming, Amazon stocks record highs. saled up 35 % places like BOO HOO already have recovered their share price.
people are spending more than ever it seems just on line !
why are we flying in workers, o yes people want free money over moving jobs to booming area's
UK needed a reset, imo it's for the better. Will it change people, I doubt it.
And to add the lower end of the fun car market is seeing a rise !!! 205 GTi etc prices up ! who would have thought it.
"Food and online shopping rose, and alcohol sales jumped by 31%.
Online shopping as a proportion of all retail reached a record high of 22%"
people are still spending just in other area's
Edited by Porsche911R on Friday 24th April 10:31
anonymous said:
[redacted]
No I have not !why do people keep quoting the 80's and 90's crash's !! THIS IS NOT the same sort of crash !
I put £60k into stocks, a while back, lets see what happens risky but high risk high gains. . I gave you the tip a few weeks back , did you buy construction shares ?
I doubt it, you could have made 15% and got out already.
off my rocker !! I POSTED YOU TO BUY THE F**ING SHARES ! like I did in the finance section and all I got was s
t in that section and people in there saying I am liar ! I left and have never been back, a lot of wannbe's in there like on here, it's annoying.People like you call me a liar on here also I am avery open and always ask people to back up what they said, most cannot.
I am the only one here it seems who said NO to the FTSE hitting 4k and got s
t for that also. !NO reverse turn, I put up and put my money where my mouth is be it cars or stocks, always have on here.
To get called a liar time and time again on this forum by 4 or 5 guys is just nasty.
I ask real question how the rich make >8% but buy on PCP NO ONE puts UP !! EVER !!!! fake news !!
80% people say they will buy "this car" at "this price" but none do !!!
Persimmon
1 week up 15.88%
1 month up 29.41%
you took the piss a few weeks back short memory ? page 2 btw
"Porsche911R said:
builders shares are going up every day, we have a housing shortage and they expect people to back to work building in 3 weeks. A strong buy atm."
Cmoose:
"Please put all your money into construction shares.
K, thanks."
the markets DID NOT DO THIS IN 87 and 2008 !! it was a finance/bank.houseing crash, this is not imho. This is a pause and a future debt issue.
people in other Threads expecting a VAT CUT like 2008, I am going the other way and expect a VAT rise, lets see :-)
I will say it a 5th time the high street and car market was ALREADY FU****ed !!! nothing to do with this virus s
t.I said this about the car market 4 years ago, look it up. it's flooded !!! due to debt and PCP b
ks.Edited by Porsche911R on Friday 24th April 12:27
Everyone is entitled to an opinion but none of us really know how this will pan out. The wealthy it will not affect and likewise those on full benefits(it's a normal day for them) . The hardest hit will be mr average as usual. In times like these there are always winners and losers.
By the way mrD do you have anger issues I think you need to take a chill pill;)
By the way mrD do you have anger issues I think you need to take a chill pill;)
RSVP911 said:
Miopyk said:
Not having a pop at anyone but I think some people are generally making the mistake of comparing the current crisis with previous crashes, the banks in 2008, the dot com boom and probably most of the other recessions before that. These were one way or the other all man made and ultimately based either on greed, power struggles and general excess or a combination of all 3.
The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
That’s the best, all be it rather depressing post, I’ve read in this subject - thanks for posting The key difference between them and Covid 19 is we had the power to deal with them, sometimes in the right way and sometimes not but over time things went back to normal until we screwed it up again. Covid 19 is different, we can't see it, we can't track it and we clearly don't know how to manage it without either major economic disruption or by surrendering the vulnerable in society to whatever fate this disease choses. And it's clear there is no other exit from either of those 2 scenarios until 4 billion people become immune or a reliable cure or vaccine is found.
Once you've got your head around that you'll realise that there is a lot more economic pain to come, thousands more people are going to die and there's currently absolutely no end is sight. I could be (and hope I am) wrong but I wouldn't hold your breath that this will be over anytime soon.
What does all that mean for car values? Everyones opinion is as valuable or worthless as everyone else's since history is somewhat irrelevant under the circumstances. I think the only clever people right now are those that know they don't know what's going to happen next and are operating on that basis.
Just my opinion of course but either way stay safe.
Edited by Miopyk on Thursday 23 April 23:49
av185 said:
Theres a world of difference between an established market price accounting for probable dire prevailing economic conditions and the inflated price the usual initial few buyers will be prepared to pay just to own the first flipped cars being what they consider will be the latest and greatest.
av, you are a lovely guy, but this is bonkers - no one is going to pay any material overs for anything for a huge amount of time - people on here ( not you) are saying that the people who buy GT Porsche’s are immune are deluded. Even if you can afford it sentiment has changed - no matter how wealthy you are - virtually everyone is less wealthy today than on March 1st - revenues have reduced or virtually dried up , shares have fallen , other asset classes have fallen , sentiment has changed - who wants to own a business where they’ve made large swathes of people redundant, posted profit warnings, postponed dividends and then spunk a load of overs £££ on a trinket when others around them are in a financial mess. Porsche911R said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
No I have not !why do people keep quoting the 80's and 90's crash's !! THIS IS NOT the same sort of crash !
I put £60k into stocks, a while back, lets see what happens risky but high risk high gains. . I gave you the tip a few weeks back , did you buy construction shares ?
I doubt it, you could have made 15% and got out already.
off my rocker !! I POSTED YOU TO BUY THE F**ING SHARES ! like I did in the finance section and all I got was s
t in that section and people in there saying I am liar ! I left and have never been back, a lot of wannbe's in there like on here, it's annoying.People like you call me a liar on here also I am avery open and always ask people to back up what they said, most cannot.
I am the only one here it seems who said NO to the FTSE hitting 4k and got s
t for that also. !NO reverse turn, I put up and put my money where my mouth is be it cars or stocks, always have on here.
To get called a liar time and time again on this forum by 4 or 5 guys is just nasty.
I ask real question how the rich make >8% but buy on PCP NO ONE puts UP !! EVER !!!! fake news !!
80% people say they will buy "this car" at "this price" but none do !!!
Persimmon
1 week up 15.88%
1 month up 29.41%
you took the piss a few weeks back short memory ? page 2 btw
"Porsche911R said:
builders shares are going up every day, we have a housing shortage and they expect people to back to work building in 3 weeks. A strong buy atm."
Cmoose:
"Please put all your money into construction shares.
K, thanks."
the markets DID NOT DO THIS IN 87 and 2008 !! it was a finance/bank.houseing crash, this is not imho. This is a pause and a future debt issue.
people in other Threads expecting a VAT CUT like 2008, I am going the other way and expect a VAT rise, lets see :-)
I will say it a 5th time the high street and car market was ALREADY FU****ed !!! nothing to do with this virus s
t.I said this about the car market 4 years ago, look it up. it's flooded !!! due to debt and PCP b
ks.Of course traders will be able to make money from the situation we are in, but just as many trading will do their biscuit.
But it is so much bigger than that. There are 24m people employed in the private sector in the UK, of which 16m work in retail and hospitality or sectors that service them.
To shrug that off and say "That was already finished" shows an incredible lack of understanding on just how important that is and how much it will affect everyone.
My daughter and her husband have had to move back with us because both have lost their jobs, I know 2 other friends whose kids have moved back to Norfolk to live with them too.
That is out of a group of about 10 couples. 3 empty properties in London.
Let's see how many new homes are going to be needed to be built in the next 24 months, my guess is unless they are putting up cheap prefab houses, not that many.
But that isn't really the point. Retailers, cafes, restaurants, hotels, pubs, bars etc. will be reducing hours, cutting back on staff and cutting back on paying for systems and services that they will be able to do in house going forward as they will probably have plenty of time and lack of funds to justify it going forward.
The economy will shrink massively, we are trying to renegotiate our finance so we can survive a 40% drop in turnover, which I think will be where we are at for the next 2 years, I think it will take a decade to get back to where we are today.
2007 was our best year in retail and we have been trading for 21 years.
More of a worry than many of the retailers are the suppliers, many have had all forward orders cancelled, how will they survive?
With pubs and restaurants being closed for the foreseeable, who is going anywhere? Will people care about new clothes, having the latest phone or for that matter buying the latest and greatest car?
I have gone from doing 2700 miles in February to doing 240 miles since Friday 20th March, and that includes 180 miles I did yesterday collecting the rest of my daughters stuff from Greenwich.
Going forward I will be buying older stuff for a bit of fun. A 2.7 Cayman would be ideal, buy cash and enjoy it.
My brother is a head chef, they were opening a new hotel and restaurant up on the North Norfolk coast this Easter, obviously on hold. But if they are told they can't op until the end of the year that will mean dozens of staff not being paid and owners hemorrhaging money. That is one business, we have 100's of thousands around the country in the same position.
What about all those in I.T writing software for these businesses? Those selling them insurance? Those selling shop fittings? Construction?
Of course you can make money trading, but that is not how the majority of the world make a living, and it is the majority that matter to how quickly the wheels of industry turn. Plus, let's remember it is just gambling, and gambling against a pandemic is never very safe.
Edited by gizlaroc on Friday 24th April 13:21
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